When will China's military be able to challenge the U.S.?

[Hasbara Buster]

Around the territorial water of China, probably in 40-50 years. As for rest of Asia and beyond, its beyond the scope of our guesses. If China indeed continue to grow at this rate while US continue to stay in recession, I can even see China invading US mainland in 2110 as China will be much wealthier even per capita as compare to the US. So its technology will be much more advance. But that is year 2110, maybe even Africa will be as rich as China.

China has a serious problem; their population will start declining because of the one-child policy. They won't have enough working people and too many older people. This is extremely bad for the economy and the future of China. There are many countries that have the same problem, even Iran for example has a fertility rate of only 1,7 children, which is below replacement levels.

 

[Hasbara Buster]

Never mind.

 

[inddef]

The world would be a much worse place without the US around.

There will always be an imperialist power to fill the void. And I can think of much worse powers than the US. Japanese imperialism, British imperalism, German imperalism, French imperalism were all worse. In terms of imperalists, Americans are relatively benign. If you think nobody would step up to seize power if the USA suddenly went isolationist or disappeared, you're naive. I'm sure everyone prefers America to the Empire of Japan.

It can get much, much worse. History is longer than ten years.

i agree. people who criticize the US democracy don't see how much more crackpot imperialism can potentially get.

plus US has far and away the best constitution in the world. the others can't even hold a candle to it.

its a model state, the pinnacle of political thought.

 

[Hasbara Buster]

Tell that to the millions of people who are being oppressed and massacred in Palestine, Lebanon, Afghanistan, Iraq, Pakistan and elsewhere. The U.S. being "democratic" (!) does not excuse their warcrimes and state terrorism and aggression on other nations. "Democracy" has nothing to do with it.

The "democratic" sanctions by the U.S. on Iraq have killed at least 500,000 children according to UN estimates, this is just a very small example of the benefits of "U.S. democracy".

 

[Chinese-Dragon]

China has a serious problem; their population will start declining because of the one-child policy. They won't have enough working people and too many older people. This is extremely bad for the economy and the future of China. There are many countries that have the same problem, even Iran for example has a fertility rate of only 1,7 children, which is below replacement levels.

That's true, there is a demographic problem.

However, the one-child policy can be easily adjusted depending on need.

Depending on future population forecasts, the Government can alter the one-child policy with exemptions for certain ages, or even scrap the entire thing if necessary.

 

[Chinese-Dragon]

The world would be a much worse place without the US around.

There will always be an imperialist power to fill the void. And I can think of much worse powers than the US. Japanese imperialism, British imperalism, German imperalism, French imperalism were all worse. In terms of imperalists, Americans are relatively benign. If you think nobody would step up to seize power if the USA suddenly went isolationist or disappeared, you're naive. I'm sure everyone prefers America to the Empire of Japan.

It can get much, much worse. History is longer than ten years.

That's a good point.

I certainly don't envy the US for having the role of the "global policeman". It costs a fortune... and everyone just ends up hating you anyway.

Like Deng Xiaoping said: "Keep a cool head and maintain a low profile. Never take the lead - but aim to do something big."

I think that sentence sums up the ideal path for China to take.

 

[TorontoNoctis]

Tell that to the millions of people who are being oppressed and massacred in Palestine, Lebanon, Afghanistan, Iraq, Pakistan and elsewhere. The U.S. being "democratic" (!) does not excuse their warcrimes and state terrorism and aggression on other nations. "Democracy" has nothing to do with it.

The "democratic" sanctions by the U.S. on Iraq have killed at least 500,000 children according to UN estimates, this is just a very small example of the benefits of "U.S. democracy".

Sorry, that is a puny amount and ignores the number of people saved by USAID and other US foreign aid. If you want to blame sanctions for deaths, it is only fair to give credit for aid. And not only that, but effective sanctions can only be applied if an entire group of nations agrees so the blame is spread around. The US can no more force China or Russia to abide by sanctions as it can find Osama. Both those countries hold veto power and could ship their own supplies if they wanted. So why single out America?

You are truly naive if you think other imperialist nations would not do what the US has done, but far worse. This talk of a multipolar world is all hogwash -- there will always be a top dog and I would rather it be America than Japan, the UK or Russia (China self-excludes itself so not even worth considering unfortunately).

 

[inddef]

Sorry, that is a puny amount and ignores the number of people saved by USAID and other US foreign aid. If you want to blame sanctions for deaths, it is only fair to give credit for aid. And not only that, but effective sanctions can only be applied if an entire group of nations agrees so the blame is spread around. The US can no more force China or Russia to abide by sanctions as it can find Osama. Both those countries hold veto power and could ship their own supplies if they wanted. So why single out America?

You are truly naive if you think other imperialist nations would not do what the US has done, but far worse. This talk of a multipolar world is all hogwash -- there will always be a top dog and I would rather it be America than Japan, the UK or Russia (China self-excludes itself so not even worth considering unfortunately).

the reputation of nations aren't built on abstract counterfactuals unfortunately.

usa has bad karma on its hands of late

 

[Tractor]

Not will but absolutely done.

 

[IndianRobo]

If anyone can take On USA, I wouldnt be Surprised to hear the Name of Russia and China... China In Particular is A force to reckon with

 

[Nomenclature]

That's true, there is a demographic problem.

However, the one-child policy can be easily adjusted depending on need.

Depending on future population forecasts, the Government can alter the one-child policy with exemptions for certain ages, or even scrap the entire thing if necessary.

The government better starts act on the population problem soon. But overall I'm very pessimistic. As the Chinese economy grows China will become more like other developed East Asian countries/regions.

According to CIA World Factbook total fertility rate in China was 1.79 in 2009. Comparing that to other East Asian countries/regions:
223 Japan 1.21
224 South Korea 1.21
225 Republic of China (Taiwan) 1.14
226 Singapore 1.09
227 Hong Kong (PRC) 1.02
228 Macau (PRC) 0.91

As you can see the six countries/regions with lowest fertility rates in the world are all East Asian, and among East Asians, developed ethnic Chinese countries/regions has the lowest fertility rates.

At this rate I think East Asians are going the way of dinosaurs.

 

[Chinese-Dragon]

223 Japan 1.21
224 South Korea 1.21
225 Republic of China (Taiwan) 1.14
226 Singapore 1.09
227 Hong Kong (PRC) 1.02
228 Macau (PRC) 0.91

All the countries you list here have very strong economies. (Even though they have low population growth).

So I wouldn't worry about it too much. The Government will adjust the one-child policy in due time.

Hong Kong has had a very low population growth rate for a long time, yet we have the second highest life-expectancy of any country, and a high GDP per capita. Our Economic growth is doing very well too. So it's not all bad news with low population growth.

 

[indianpatriot]

US has lots of friends and really respects its ally and is on a single strong ideology of a free democratic and secular society.....thats the biggest power of US!what china is on...bullying others and for a communist state!!

 

[dragonbane]

probably going to be a very very long time, china isn't in a good position geographically speaking, its only borders the pacific and that too it has to share with unfriendly nations (US allies). the moment a chinese warship/submarine leaves base its tracked (there are at least 200 maritime patrol planes divided between those unfriendly countries) not to mention the hydrophones underwater. So pretty much anything that moves inside china or out of china can easily be tracked.

The US is the exact opposite. Its surrounded by friendly countries except for cuba and some south American countries. It borders two oceans and so has true global reach in terms of naval capability. It has the best technology in the world, and the best weapons building industry in the world (I believe there was some goal of making a 787 every 2-3 days?) and if war arises that can be accelerated and changed into fighters.

china has good shipbuilding capability, but those shipyards can easily be taken out of service, and although the US shipbuilding isn't that huge its still one of the world's best and not as easily taken out.

and yes china has a huge industrial sector, but keep in mind today's airplanes and military machines require precision equipment which china must import (i hear it imports most of its factory equipment anyway) which is not very easy.

and on top of that, expect china's oil supplies to be cut further crippling it.

 

[Nomenclature]

All the countries you list here have very strong economies. (Even though they have a low population growth rate).

So I wouldn't worry about it too much. The Government will adjust the one-child policy in due time.

I'm sure the Chinese economy will catch up to the current South Korea/Taiwan level within 20-30 years, and I have little doubt the Chinese fertility rates then will be similarly low as that of South Korea/Taiwan now.

Lifting one child policy won't help much, Shanghai has already lifted the one child rule and is actively encouraging young families to have two children but so few there's very few takers.

I'm afraid there's something wrong with modern-day East Asian societies. It's simply too stressful and competitive.