Luckily for us, Sir, our defense expenditure remains under 1% of our GDP. I don't think it would be beneficial for Japan to increase defense expenditures above 1%. If the United States were to pull out of Okinawa , then we can expect JGSDF would replace the US troops in the island, would simply distribute troops from the Western Army's main base Kumamoto to Okinawa.
I realize that at 1% of GDP, Japan technically has capacity to expand its military spending, but from where will the financing come? Increased debt, or is another area of the budget being cut to make room for these expenditures?
Japan still runs a deficit over 3% of GDP, while the US just fell under 3% last year--and we have implemented difficult cuts to our budget. If the US, with its comparatively better economic outlook, is cutting defense spending, how can Japan be expanding its defense budget?
Regarding Okinawa, I'm not talking about a unilateral pull-out, but rather a transition as part of a negotiated solution. The US presence is clearly no longer welcome in Okinawa, and I don't believe in stationing American soldiers where they aren't wanted (cough-SouthKorea-cough, ah-Philippines-choo), so the best long-term solution is probably to move our bases elsewhere (another Japanese island, a new artificial island, pulling back to Guam, etc.) and have Japan fill the vacuum as its own military role strengthens. America is increasingly embracing an alliance system to manage its affairs abroad, as the global commands simply don't have the resources to act unilaterally anymore (thus the Syria debacle after the UK parliament rejected intervention). It thus makes sense that the US would encourage Japan to build up its forces and bear more responsibility for its sector, if you will; and that is also why the US has been pushing so hard for a Japan-SK reconciliation, and has been supportive of the rapidly strengthening ties between Japan and Australia, etc.
On the other hand, some analysts have posited that Abe's moves to expand the definition of "collective self defense" aren't simply an attempt to make the US-Japan defense relationship more symmetrical, but rather to normalize the Japanese armed forces and create a sphere of influence in its own right, independent of the US (think Shintaro Ishihara). Taking the long view, Abe's increased military spending would the first step in such a move, with assumption of the Okinawa garrison as a medium-term step. Do you have any thoughts on the matter?
