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What will happen to Pakistan as a fallout of unstable Afghanistan

Guys this thread is meant for a serious discussion on the topic.

I feel that post 2014 Afghanistan will probably continue getting stable under the control of Kabul government, ANA, and NATO presence until 2024.

However in case there is no long term agreement between Kabul and NATO, and all Western troops leave, there may be another Iraq in the making.

If God forbid that happens, and Afghanistan becomes a hotbed of wars of war lords, Pakistan could suffer from terrible consequences.

Doesn't Pakistan desire a weak Afghanistan, so they can have 'Strategic depth' in its confrontation with India?
 
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Are you NUTS! Anyone worth half their salt wants a stable Pakistan, but that doesn't change the fact that Afghanistan is headed for the SHITTER!
Then why did Pakistan impose Taliban on Afghanistan in earlt 90's?
 
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Like how the ghq real estate and bakery khors are sorting out their act london bhatta khors will have to sort or they will finish with time ..! the paranoia or delusion of conspiracies is killing this country.

????? :confused:
 
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Doesn't Pakistan desire a weak Afghanistan, so they can have 'Strategic depth' in its confrontation with India?


Funny how Indian posters here cut and paste childish elementary school logic.

As if they all hangup their thinking caps and put on the dumb and dumber jackets.

Why?

oh why?

I mean seriously!

Do such posters ever go beyond the basic history study from their 5th grade govenment approved text book?

Ever?



For those who want to learn a bit (as if PDF was the place of higher learning. hahaah)

Looooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooong before the time when "strategic depth" was even a twinkle in its creator's eye

Indian media and Indian government was practicing "strategic encirclement" of Pakistan.

Who could forget the Indian toadies like Abul Rhman Pizzwak misswalk were $hitting all over the world barking and clawing at Pakistan.

But Indians will never know

They will continue living in their mummy daddy made up world eons away from reality that is not too different from the Alice in wonderland world of Islamists.


sadly
 
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This is what Indians learn from their mother's bossom.

You can't fault the ordinary posters here. Their ignorance is all thanks to Bharat momma's propaganda

not too different from the propaganda of Islamis Mommah




Please talk based on your size

Otherwise people will laugh at you when you wave your weenie

Who are the Taliban?
The hardline Islamic Taliban movement has proved to be a formidable fighting force in Afghanistan and a major threat to its government.

The Taliban also threatens to destabilise Pakistan, where they control areas in the north-west and have been blamed for a wave of suicide bombings and other attacks.

Many observers now believe that future peace in Afghanistan can only come if the government in Kabul negotiates with the Taliban.

The announcement of Taliban plans to open an office in Qatar in June 2013 was seen as a positive step in those negotiations, but mistrust on both sides remains high.

Hopes for peace talks were equally high early in 2012 before the Taliban in Afghanistan announced in a strongly-worded statement in March of that year that they were suspending preliminary peace negotiations with the US.

Austere rule
The Taliban emerged in the early 1990s in northern Pakistan following the withdrawal of Soviet troops from Afghanistan.

A predominantly Pashtun movement, the Taliban came to prominence in Afghanistan in the autumn of 1994.

It is commonly believed that they first appeared in religious seminaries - mostly paid for by money from Saudi Arabia - which preached a hard line form of Sunni Islam.

The Taliban's promise - in Pashtun areas straddling Pakistan and Afghanistan - was to restore peace and security and enforce their own austere version of Sharia, or Islamic law, once in power.

In both countries they introduced or supported Islamic punishments - such as public executions of convicted murderers and adulterers and amputations of those found guilty of theft.

Men were required to grow beards and women had to wear the all-covering burka.

The Taliban banned television, music and cinema and disapproved of girls aged 10 and over from going to school.

Pakistan has repeatedly denied that it is the architect of the Taliban enterprise.

But there is little doubt that many Afghans who initially joined the movement were educated in madrassas (religious schools) in Pakistan.

Pakistan was also one of only three countries, along with Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE), which recognised the Taliban when they were in power in Afghanistan from the mid-1990s until 2001.

It was also the last country to break diplomatic ties with the Taliban.


Although Pakistan has in recent years adopted a harder line against Taliban militants carrying out attacks on its soil, new Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif - who was elected in May - has said talking to the militants is one of his priorities.

In recent months at least three key leaders of the Pakistani Taliban have been killed in US drone strikes. Mullah Nazir was killed in January and Waliur Rehman was killed in May.

In November 2013, the group's leader in Pakistan, Hakimullah Mehsud, was reported killed in a drone strike.

But despite these setbacks for the militants, there is evidence that their influence in Karachi has significantly increased.

What is arguably one of the most internationally criticised of all Pakistani Taliban attacks took place in October 2012, when schoolgirlMalala Yousafzai was attacked on her way home in the town of Mingora.

Al-Qaeda 'sanctuary'
The attention of the world was drawn to the Taliban in Afghanistan following the attacks on the World Trade Centre in September 2001.

The Taliban in Afghanistan were accused of providing a sanctuary to Osama Bin Laden and the al-Qaeda movement who were blamed for the attacks.

Soon after 9/11 the Taliban were driven from power in Afghanistan by a US-led coalition, although their leader Mullah Mohammad Omar was not captured.

In recent years the Taliban have re-emerged in Afghanistan and grown far stronger in Pakistan, where observers say there is loose co-ordination between different Taliban factions and militant groups.

The main Pakistani faction was led by Hakimullah Mehsud until his death. His Tehrik-e Taliban Pakistan (TTP) is blamed for dozens of suicide bombings and other attacks.

Observers warn against over-stating the existence of one unified insurgency against the Pakistani state, however.

The Taliban in Afghanistan are still believed to be led by Mullah Omar, a village clergyman who lost his right eye fighting the occupying forces of the Soviet Union in the 1980s.

Afghans, weary of the mujahideen's excesses and infighting after the Soviets were driven out, generally welcomed the Taliban when they first appeared on the scene.

Their early popularity was largely due to their success in stamping out corruption, curbing lawlessness and making the roads and the areas under their control safe for commerce to flourish.
 
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Funny how Indian posters here cut and paste childish elementary school logic.

As if they all hangup their thinking caps and put on the dumb and dumber jackets.

Why?

oh why?

I mean seriously!

Do such posters ever go beyond the basic history study from their 5th grade govenment approved text book?

Ever?



For those who want to learn a bit (as if PDF was the place of higher learning. hahaah)

Looooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooong before the time when "strategic depth" was even a twinkle in its creator's eye

Indian media and Indian government was practicing "strategic encirclement" of Pakistan.

Who could forget the Indian toadies like Abul Rhman Pizzwak misswalk were $hitting all over the world barking and clawing at Pakistan.

But Indians will never know

They will continue living in their mummy daddy made up world eons away from reality that is not too different from the Alice in wonderland world of Islamists.


sadly


Strategic Depth – Pakistan’s Defense Doctrine




Amber Aziz

Pakistan in order to gain strategic depth helped America during Afghan war but as this war ended Pakistan remained all alone to bear its consequences. After Afghan war Pakistan was left with more than 3 million refugees to care for, thousands of madrassas funded by foreign money (Saudi Arabia) where youth was recruited to get training for militant activities, a Kalashnikov culture and the drug trade especially in Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) which also became heaven for the militant outfits. This was due to the flawed strategic depth doctrine, which was adopted without realizing the long term effects that it would have on Pakistan’s society, culture and survival as a nation state. After 9/11 the situation has further complicated, now Pakistan is fighting against the same militants who were once trained by her incorporation with CIA. Moreover, increasing Indian influence in Afghanistan is creating even more security concerns for Pakistan.


The way Pakistan’s defense policy evolved was thoroughly circumstantial. Before independence Pakistan armed forces were an integrated part of the Indian defense establishment. The style with which Britishers raised armed forces was imperial in nature as they were not accountable to the people of united India but to the foreigners and this imperial nature of armed forces remain intact even after independence. Likewise Sub continent’s defense always remained as an indivisible whole for the strategic planners even after independence defense remained top priority. After partition Pakistan remained in the perpetual state of insecurity obviously because of the hegemonic pressures from neighbors like India.That is why immediately after independence armed forces got heavy favour form Pakistan’s polity, thus making civilian contribution in policy making a farfetched idea.Therefore in Pakistan’s geostrategic realities, neighboring countries like India it was natural that no re-evaluation of the defense policy may take place and the internal balance of Pakistan drifted towards the armed forces.

In May 1976 first white paper was published explaining the higher defense organization (HDO). The main tasks of HDO are: Bringing the policy making process under the political direction, ensuring the development and growth of defense institutions, harmonizing the coordination between various agencies and groups to ensure smooth functioning of the entire setup. HDO actually consists of three major sections namely Defense Committee of Cabinet (DCC), Defense Council (DC) and the Joint Chiefs of Staff Committee (JCSC). DCC is actually the empowered and responsible body when it comes to the policy framing rather than the two other institutions which are advisory in nature. DCC is headed by the prime minister and its permanent members are Defense, Foreign, Interior and Finance Ministers. Originally DCC should have the final word but with the creation of National Security Council through an act of Parliament the authority of DCC have been bypassed. As in NSC services chiefs sits as a permanent stakeholder along with the premier who actually should be considered commander in chief. Today the need of time is that DCC should also be strengthened as a policymaking body and should be freed of powerful shadow of NSC.

While DC is being chaired by the Defense Minister, JCSC comprises of three services chiefs and a chairman of the committee. JCSC is a very important platform but the unfortunate fact is that its chairman has no executive authority over the services, now keeping in view the present condition of the country and India’s Cold Start Doctrine as well it is very much necessary that there should be greater integration and coordination between all the three services and JCSC should be empowered with some decisive capacities. Therefore it is very much important that the true spirit of HOD should be restored as it is very important for the strategic development and growth of the country’s defense and a lasting policy making system.

In Pakistan’s National security policy Nuclear weapons have played a very important role in defense and deterrence strategy. As mentioned above like Pakistan’s defense doctrine, Pakistan’s nuclear program-its strategic doctrine, is also outcome of a reaction to India’s nuclear program. India is secure in its own strength and they are fully conscious of it, they are in stronger position than Pakistan materially, economically and diplomatically therefore it is necessary for Pakistan not to lower its defensive measures. Two confrontations with the Indians at Kargil and heavy deployment of Indian troops at our borders have reinforced belief in our deterrence capacity.

Pakistan’s military have always focused on the creation of strategic depth against India and have looked towards Afghanistan and Central Asian Republics for this reason. This was one of the reasons for Pakistan to assist Afghanistan during the Russian invasion and maintain cordial relations with the Taliban regime. Pakistan adopted this doctrine of strategic depth during Zia-ul-Haq’s regime. Afterwards Nawaz Sharif extended the same policy by recognizing Taliban regime in May 1997 in return of which Taliban gave all possible security considerations to Pakistan that is why during 1990’s Pakistan made effective use of Militants, terrorists and other non-state actors especially in Kashmir against India. This was actually the golden period in application of the strategic depth doctrine but alas as Hassan Abbas writes:

“No one could have guessed it then, but the onset of the Afghan war was the most fateful dagger driven into the heart of Pakistan”

Pakistan in order to gain strategic depth helped America during Afghan war but as this war ended Pakistan remained all alone to bear its consequences. After Afghan war Pakistan was left with more than 3 million refugees to care for, thousands of madrassas funded by foreign money (Saudi Arabia) where youth was recruited to get training for militant activities, a Kalashnikov culture and the drug trade especially in Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) which also became heaven for the militant outfits. This was due to the flawed strategic depth doctrine, which was adopted without realizing the long term effects that it would have on Pakistan’s society, culture and survival as a nation state. After 9/11 the situation has further complicated, now Pakistan is fighting against the same militants who were once trained by her incorporation with CIA. Moreover, increasing Indian influence in Afghanistan is creating even more security concerns for Pakistan. As Dr A.Z Hilali writes:

“According to Michael Scheuer (former chief of CIA) , policy makers of Pakistan believe that India’s expensive, extensive and growing Afghan presence is a direct and even existential threat to Pakistan and after the incident of 9/11 this area of strategic depth has been transformed into a second military frontier with India”

India is effectively pursuing its long term policy of ‘strategic encirclement’ of Pakistan but unfortunately in response to it Pakistan does not have effective counter diplomatic and security policy towards Afghanistan. Therefore it is very much evident that Pakistan’s security policy towards Afghanistan needs to be reviewed as this idea of strategic depth have failed badly andnow ultimately the policy makers should realize that no strategic arrangement can be fruitful if it is based on country’s compromise of sovereignty.

- See more at: Strategic Depth – Pakistan’s Defense Doctrine - Pakistan Analysis
 
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Bwahahaha, i was thinking the same thing, what makes me laugh is the sheer confidence with which they present their argument without any detailed study on the subject or experience on the matter. Chalo, experience nah ho, but at least research the frickin thing if you want to have a constructive debate rather than just cut, copy and paste articles that suit "your narrative".

Like a few months back I had a guy who pulled some random numbers out of his arrse and said there were only 1% of Hindus living in Pakistan.... WTF? :P
 
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Karan was talking about 10 years into the future.
Wouldn't take long to convince them that we are part of Muslim Ummah and Hindu majority Bharat is the real enemy
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Oh yaar naaraz na hona

Chalo chal ker chai (virtual off course) peetay hain

OK?

Ghusssa jaanay do please

and

please please post something related to the topic of the thread. Thank you
Last I checked, Afghanistan is known as the war zone of the world and the government only exists in Kabul. Who gives a fcuk what they say?
Problem is even your favorite Talibans do/did NOT recognize when they rules the WHOLE of Afghanistan. As for not giving a f*** it is Pak that has been paying the price! Gittit!
 
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