What led to the failure of project Azm?

[FuturePAF]

Because real estate is not complicated at all, their minds are preprogrammed like boomers to throw money at something and think eventually a product is guaranteed to be ready.

Actual tech projects and more complex businesses require brains, not just money, anyone can hire some construction workers and designers - especially when that money is stolen from the public anyway.

Projects like Azm require proper functioning institions, quality STEM universities producing lots of yearly graduates, an ecosystem of capable minds to lead instituions and give them direction.

Boomer uncles can't do the above.

It’s the same thing they did to A.Q.Khan. He came back after getting trained in metallurgy and tried to get a job at Karachi steel mills. They wouldn’t consider him, despite his qualifications, and he went for further study in Europe. When he got access to potentially useful technology, he reached out himself to offer his services. It’s gumnaam heros like him that the country keeps running.

He was a lucky one to be able to go to Europe and get an education and be of use to the nation. A lot of raw talent is never found, nurtured, and given the right access to education to reach their full potential.

Something to think about:
Once JF-17 Block 3 numbers are produced most of PAC AMF is going to be idle. It is a huge setup and the PAF really really wants it not to sit idle in a couple of years.

A few people (including the airchief at that time) thought the solution to this problem (being a solution to the future fighter problem too) was to develop our own FGFA. I am sorry to say this but these folks were out of touch with reality. There was this other person too that still believes (or at least tells everyone that he does) that FGFA was a realistic goal for PAF.

To develop an aircraft is a herculean task. Remember Pakistan did NOT develop the JF-17, it only manufactures it. It takes a LOT of expertise in engineering and a tonne of huge facilities to develop and certify an aircraft. Its a ridiculously expensive and labour intensive process that no way Pakistan could afford for the JF-17 or any other aircraft.

Then, the design of an aircraft - especially a modern aircraft - is so utterly complex and multidimensional that it takes thousands of experts to even begin a design. Remember, I am only talking about design - not development, which is when you do structural tests and certifications and what not.

Now what did PAF have? A handful of PhDs in aerodynamics and structures maybe. And just because these people have PhDs does not mean that they are the right people. These are PAF officers with PhDs that have gotten PhDs at some points during their careers. Their "real-world" experience is aircraft maintenance of PAF fighters and their overhaul and teaching students at CAE Risalpur. This does NOT qualify them to design and build aircraft. A PhD at lockheed martin who has worked his entire life on F-16s and F-18s design and development is not the same as some PAF PhD teaching undergraduate classes at CAE. What industry do we have to train the workforce for an aircraft program???

So what was Azm? It was a conceptual design. This means that its shape was being finalized with some very very basic ideas of subsystems. Since you can do CFD with computers and dont need much investment or skill, that's all AvRID was doing. CFD and CFD and CFD. And that's all we saw. It looks cool in pictures and videos and the forum was impressed. I told you guys last year that they hadn't done a single wind tunnel test.

And obviously an aircraft is not just aerodynamics. It's structures, it's fuel systems, it's hydraulics, its radars, its ECM, its sensors, its sensor fusion, its electronics, its power electronics, its materials, its composites, its manufacturing design, the list is huge. You need subject matter experts on hundreds of fields and then they need to have teams of their own. Not some PAF Babus with inflated egos because they have PhDs and the sum of their experience is teaching undergraduate courses in Pakistan.

I have seen Azm. I have seen what Azm is right now. Very closely. It would not be too inaccurate to liken it to the Agha Waqar waterkit story. People who were either evil or delusional or both were taking a naive nation on a ride.


If you want to see how you build a fighter aircraft look at Turkish Aerospace. Look how many years they spent developing facilities. Worked on actual aircraft programs like the F-16, A-400M, C-130, S-70. They developed huge facilities for certification. They integrated themselves into international supply chains. PAC Kamra is a joke in front of Turkish Aerospace. PAC Kamra has no relationships with the world and has to smuggle (for lack of a better word) half their inputs. TA spent decades developing skills and manpower in a SUSTAINABLE manner - that is they always had the next 2 or 3 projects lined up for their engineers to work on. They went from strength to strength. They started with Hurkus. We just bought Saab Safari and have done an abysmal amount of work on it considering the time weve had it for. They then worked on Hurjet. We had the K8 and just did nothing with it. Now they are working on TFX and we had the shitshow that was Azm. You can almost make a one-to-one comparison on what to do and what not to do.

Anyway, this rant is long enough already. It's just that "afsos hota hai yaar" - because I'm here picking up the pieces of the practical joke on Pakistan that was Azm.



Guess what the latest thinking is? Remember that issue with the AMF going dormant? Now they are trying by hook and crook to get the TFX to use AMF in some capacity. The good thing about this interaction of PAC and TA is that PAF will realize how outdated they are and how their hubris doesn't align at all with their capacity. I hope PAC gets it what it wants. I don't want it to lose the last chance they have to catch up with the real world.

After the JF-17, they should produce the J-10 locally, at least in part. It’s better then letting the factory and its staff go idle.

 

[JamD]

After the JF-17, they should produce the J-10 locally, at least in part. It’s better then letting the factory and its staff go idle.

Maybe. But the locally produced J-10s are going to be expensive and extremely delayed compared to the J-10s that we can buy from China. We could manufacture J-10s for China but I doubt they have a need that Pakistan can fulfill.

Also, China is increasingly operating like the established weapons manufacturer that it has become - less willing to build your capacity and more willing to sell. This is the reason for the recent PAF obsession of everything Turkish. The Turks are much more willing for a partner than the Chinese today. Once they become established (they are very close), Pakistan would have missed that train as well.

 

[NA71]

Project Azm ...the end result is rather quicker than what I actually predicted. Fancy names, colorful posters, and drafted details for funds and funds only ....

When a professional with PhD is bossed by a below-average IQ man just because he is wearing the uniform ...any project would ultimately meet that same fate as Azm.....

No surprise.

This would also happen to NASTP. ...just wait.

 

[renhai]

Maybe. But the locally produced J-10s are going to be expensive and extremely delayed compared to the J-10s that we can buy from China. We could manufacture J-10s for China but I doubt they have a need that Pakistan can fulfill.

Also, China is increasingly operating like the established weapons manufacturer that it has become - less willing to build your capacity and more willing to sell. This is the reason for the recent PAF obsession of everything Turkish. The Turks are much more willing for a partner than the Chinese today. Once they become established (they are very close), Pakistan would have missed that train as well.

Pakistan and Turkey are very close in the aviation industry. Pakistan has manufactured 150 JF-17. Turkey also makes a lot of fighter jets. So these two countries are very suitable for cooperation.

I think China will agree with Pakistan to assemble J-10c. There are rumors that China does not want to continue to produce J-10c. Its production line was transferred from Chengdu to Guizhou. It will also be transferred to Pakistan. It's just a matter of time.

 

[TheSolution]

Main reason of failure... Once someone placed own self, own ego first instead of the greater good.

The kind of failure this was, cannot be blamed on a singular person.

It seems it was a collective - institutional failure.

It's not brains issue.
They have brains.

It's goal issue

Neutrals goal is to settle in Canada
CCP goal is to stay in country no one is allowed to leave the country.

They don't have brains like they think they do - they fail miserably in even the things they attempt.

Yes, they are mostly corrupt with mixed interests - but even with the attempts they make, it's always half-assed and severely underestimating what's required.

Ultimately the boomer uncle mentality.

It's a multi-faceted problem and vested interests is just one of them. Severe ineptness and inability to properly organise and structure institutions based on meritocracy is a massive issue. Failure to understand the complexity of a task and the complex ecosystem it requires is another.

Only solution is someone at the top with power who tries to change the work culture and how they think - something like this is difficult and might only be possible after continuous failure and perhaps humiliation/wake up call. But by then it could be too late.

 

[Bilal Khan (Quwa)]

Maybe. But the locally produced J-10s are going to be expensive and extremely delayed compared to the J-10s that we can buy from China. We could manufacture J-10s for China but I doubt they have a need that Pakistan can fulfill.

Also, China is increasingly operating like the established weapons manufacturer that it has become - less willing to build your capacity and more willing to sell. This is the reason for the recent PAF obsession of everything Turkish. The Turks are much more willing for a partner than the Chinese today. Once they become established (they are very close), Pakistan would have missed that train as well.

Turkey's biggest constraint is economies-of-scale, so its defence programs can get more expensive (at least from a production standpoint) compared to Chinese ones. Hence, there'll generally be more scope for partnerships and collaboration with the Turks (due to the lack of scale) as opposed to China. IMO, the real problem here is that Pakistan is missing out on the opportunity to develop critical technologies with the Turks.

 

[Zhukov]

No idea what project azm was in first place.
No expertise in aircraft designing and aeronautical Engineering
No expertise in Microprocessors
No expertise in advance weapon systems and avionics
No expertise in Composite materials
No expertise in Weapon System Softwares.
We dont even have automobile industry let alone aircrafts.

I mean Assembling an already designed weapon system on Imported assembly lines with technicians trained by the original designers is one thing. Designing something is another.

It was just a publicity stunt. Or the best it could have been was a joint venture with Turkey or China. We have no Industrial, Acedemic, or economic capacity to undertake such projects.

 

[kursed]

Lack of buy in from stakeholders. I kept repeating that Project Azm would require across the board buy in similar to and greater than the nuclear program. But evidently this was just the idea of some people. It's a shame that we invest so much into the whims of a few people instead of well thought out plans and strategies.


Can anyone tell me concretely what the NASTP hopes to achieve? It all sounds like vague garbage to me. Probably a great way to suck even more funds from the already impoverished nation.

And what guarantee is there that NASTP won't be trashed when the new air chief comes in?

This post will tell you what Azm and most of our projects are like

Your original post quoted in here, should be put on a plaque somewhere. =) It's that on the dot .

 

[PakFactor]

Main reason of failure... Once someone placed own self, own ego first instead of the greater good.

Or not having the right people in place. I've always maintained that the military should never be in the business of arms manufacturing -- small munitions that are delicate but not complex projects.

 

[TheSolution]

Or not having the right people in place. I've always maintained that the military should never be in the business of arms manufacturing -- small munitions that are delicate but not complex projects.

Plus I don't see the reason to especially with the security concerns excuse - there's no real reason, it can't exactly harm national security in any way.

Like they can regularly check on the progress of the project, etc, but it's really not necessary for them to be so deeply involved.

They should leave it to a dedicated and properly organised civillian institution.

It was just a publicity stunt.

Nope - I don't think they'd do that really plus some effort was actually put in.

They just didn't fully comprehend the complexity of the task and the true ecosystem it required. Designing fighter jets comparable in quality and features to the F-22 is nowhere near the same as running a DHA business.

I would class this as biting off more than they could chew - but I don't think they realise what they actually bit off

 

[Bilal Khan (Quwa)]

Something to think about:
Once JF-17 Block 3 numbers are produced most of PAC AMF is going to be idle. It is a huge setup and the PAF really really wants it not to sit idle in a couple of years.

A few people (including the airchief at that time) thought the solution to this problem (being a solution to the future fighter problem too) was to develop our own FGFA. I am sorry to say this but these folks were out of touch with reality. There was this other person too that still believes (or at least tells everyone that he does) that FGFA was a realistic goal for PAF.

To develop an aircraft is a herculean task. Remember Pakistan did NOT develop the JF-17, it only manufactures it. It takes a LOT of expertise in engineering and a tonne of huge facilities to develop and certify an aircraft. Its a ridiculously expensive and labour intensive process that no way Pakistan could afford for the JF-17 or any other aircraft.

Then, the design of an aircraft - especially a modern aircraft - is so utterly complex and multidimensional that it takes thousands of experts to even begin a design. Remember, I am only talking about design - not development, which is when you do structural tests and certifications and what not.

Now what did PAF have? A handful of PhDs in aerodynamics and structures maybe. And just because these people have PhDs does not mean that they are the right people. These are PAF officers with PhDs that have gotten PhDs at some points during their careers. Their "real-world" experience is aircraft maintenance of PAF fighters and their overhaul and teaching students at CAE Risalpur. This does NOT qualify them to design and build aircraft. A PhD at lockheed martin who has worked his entire life on F-16s and F-18s design and development is not the same as some PAF PhD teaching undergraduate classes at CAE. What industry do we have to train the workforce for an aircraft program???

So what was Azm? It was a conceptual design. This means that its shape was being finalized with some very very basic ideas of subsystems. Since you can do CFD with computers and dont need much investment or skill, that's all AvRID was doing. CFD and CFD and CFD. And that's all we saw. It looks cool in pictures and videos and the forum was impressed. I told you guys last year that they hadn't done a single wind tunnel test.

And obviously an aircraft is not just aerodynamics. It's structures, it's fuel systems, it's hydraulics, its radars, its ECM, its sensors, its sensor fusion, its electronics, its power electronics, its materials, its composites, its manufacturing design, the list is huge. You need subject matter experts on hundreds of fields and then they need to have teams of their own. Not some PAF Babus with inflated egos because they have PhDs and the sum of their experience is teaching undergraduate courses in Pakistan.

I have seen Azm. I have seen what Azm is right now. Very closely. It would not be too inaccurate to liken it to the Agha Waqar waterkit story. People who were either evil or delusional or both were taking a naive nation on a ride.


If you want to see how you build a fighter aircraft look at Turkish Aerospace. Look how many years they spent developing facilities. Worked on actual aircraft programs like the F-16, A-400M, C-130, S-70. They developed huge facilities for certification. They integrated themselves into international supply chains. PAC Kamra is a joke in front of Turkish Aerospace. PAC Kamra has no relationships with the world and has to smuggle (for lack of a better word) half their inputs. TA spent decades developing skills and manpower in a SUSTAINABLE manner - that is they always had the next 2 or 3 projects lined up for their engineers to work on. They went from strength to strength. They started with Hurkus. We just bought Saab Safari and have done an abysmal amount of work on it considering the time weve had it for. They then worked on Hurjet. We had the K8 and just did nothing with it. Now they are working on TFX and we had the shitshow that was Azm. You can almost make a one-to-one comparison on what to do and what not to do.

Anyway, this rant is long enough already. It's just that "afsos hota hai yaar" - because I'm here picking up the pieces of the practical joke on Pakistan that was Azm.



Guess what the latest thinking is? Remember that issue with the AMF going dormant? Now they are trying by hook and crook to get the TFX to use AMF in some capacity. The good thing about this interaction of PAC and TA is that PAF will realize how outdated they are and how their hubris doesn't align at all with their capacity. I hope PAC gets it what it wants. I don't want it to lose the last chance they have to catch up with the real world.

IMO it's not just an issue of showing PAF how outdated and out-of-touch it is... For a lack of a better term, but, our leaders need genuine 'mentoring' (both guidance and danda) on how to correctly think, not just correctly do things.

The issue with AZM wasn't just that it was unrealistic, over-ambitious, etc, but rather, how in the hell did this program get approved?

It takes a severe level of malice or ignorance (or both) to greenlight this project without seeing Pakistan's total lack of critical industries (like gas turbines, aero-structure metallurgy and composites, thermal management, etc).

This is a problem across our entire state apparatus. There's no real sense of accountability, standards, or humility.

 

[JamD]

IMO it's not just an issue of showing PAF how outdated and out-of-touch it is... For a lack of a better term, but, our leaders need genuine 'mentoring' (both guidance and danda) on how to correctly think, not just correctly do things.

The issue with AZM wasn't just that it was unrealistic, over-ambitious, etc, but rather, how in the hell did this program get approved?

It takes a severe level of malice or ignorance (or both) to greenlight this project without seeing Pakistan's total lack of critical industries (like gas turbines, aero-structure metallurgy and composites, thermal management, etc).

This is a problem across our entire state apparatus. There's no real sense of accountability, standards, or humility.

Hubris. It got approved because of hubris. Musalman jab ehad karleta hai to sab hojata hai is the kind of stuff I heard with my own ears when I questioned the guy politely. Hubris. Self delusion. I don't know man.


Like I said earlier, outsiders think that our forces are institutions unlike others. But they are exactly like the rest of Pakistan. At the mercy of the whims of whoever gets to make decisions that day - be it at the top or not. Aaj azm acha lagraha hai aaj azm karten hain. Kal NASTP karenge.

Self confidence is important but it has morphed into delusion for a lot of our uncles. Believing their own propaganda lol.

 

[Faceless]

1. Was this even a real project, from what I have gathered, it was on papers and mockups only, no information regarding the aircraft's actual desgin it's PDR, nothing.
2. Did pakistan even had proper research institutions to begin with, its universtites stand nowhere in comparison to the rest of the world, numbers of patents registered in pakistan is abysmally low with defence related patents being nearly non existent, it has 0 significant private industry that can supply sub systems for parts needed for a 5th gen fighter (leave 5th gen your industries can't supply parts for een 4th gen)
3. How much experience does PAC kamra has when it comes to desgining aircrafts (if i am not mistaken there was no pakistani contribution in desgining of jf17)
4. How much experience does pakistan has when it comes to manufacturing aircrafts, because 5th gen aircrafts manufacturing needs extreme tolerances which can not be gained by manufacturing a lightweight single engine 4th gen aircraft.
5. How many subsystems of JF17 were indigenously desgined and developed (so that it would have generated important know why which could later be used in producing an improved variant for 5th gen aircraft) , most of the subsystems were either license manufactured (which gives know how but not know why), sub assembled from SKD kits imported from china, or were outright imported.
6. how much money did the government actually spent on the project, turks are able to produce most of the subsystems needed for the aircraft in-house because they are throwing money at it blindly as the project is of utmost national importence.
7. Since its clear from above points pakistan can't produce a 5th gen fighter alone, it would need substantial help from a foreign partner, but since china is already devloping a 2nd export based 5th gen aircraft, why would they help you when they can simply sell you their own product. (Even the turks are having substantial foreign help from various nato countries in important subsystems)

PAKISTAN DEVLOPING A 5TH GEN FIGHTER INDIGENOUSLY IS AS TRUE AS EARTH BEING FLAT.

 

[That Guy]

The bigger the project is, the more likely it is to run into problems.

Azm was too ambitious for Pakistan, which should have started by partnering with key allies to develop local industry and technology first.

It was a foolish idea from the start. The higher ups that approved it were 100% out of touch with reality.

 

[Hakikat ve Hikmet]

However, the PAF strategists are smart enough to keep the plan B alive and kicking with the support from few good friends (e.g., TFX with J-20 engines).....