What is the biggest problem facing China according to you people?

[Bussard Ramjet]

I still don't see the point of a smaller population being a crisis, at best what you described are tactical issues, fully manageable, just business calculations:

• If a nation lacks labor force, then (1) open the specific job markets to foreign supply, or (2) outbound investment to where labor is available.
• If a nation lacks a specific market, then (1) downsize investment or close down the business, or (2) outbound investment to where market is available.

Prosperity of population, not size, is the objective.

I am talking here about national power, which is more correlated with Total power, than with prosperity of individuals.

Look for example at Qatar, or Denmark, or even Norway, all of which are extremely prosperous nations, more so than even the United States, but individually almost inconsequential.

As for your calculations:

• It is not necessarily always easy to have such a simple calculation.
  Opening up job markets to foreigners can be pretty hard for many people. And to do that in a positive way must involve a mechanism where you can ingrain them into domestic society seemlessly, something which China isn't yet capable of.
  Outbound investment, doesn't lead to growth of domestic GDP.
• Again, investment abroad is all good and well, but it doesn't do anything for domestic GDP, often the most important source of national power.

I still don't see the point of a smaller population being a crisis, at best what you described are tactical issues, fully manageable, just business calculations:

• If a nation lacks labor force, then (1) open the specific job markets to foreign supply, or (2) outbound investment to where labor is available.
• If a nation lacks a specific market, then (1) downsize investment or close down the business, or (2) outbound investment to where market is available.

Prosperity of population, not size, is the objective.

I have no doubt that as a people, Chinese would continue to individually get rich. But I don't think that is all what people mean here when they talk about their era, "China's age" etc. Do they?

Global Power and Standing as a country is ultimately dependent on one's relative and total size compared to other countries.

China is already at a historic low as far as population is concerned. It has only 18% of the world's population and decreasing. Through the last 2000 or so years, China has consistently been around 20-30% of the world's population.

If you look at it, China and the rise of other developing countries is a regression to the historic means. But here, China has distorted its relative population size in the overall levels, which will come to bite it later.

As I say, technological advancements will only increase the amount of population that can be sustained on Earth. Even 2 centuries back, the population was a fifth of today's levels, and people were barely able to eat.

 

[Shotgunner51]

I am talking here about national power, which is more correlated with Total power, than with prosperity of individuals.

Look for example at Qatar, or Denmark, or even Norway, all of which are extremely prosperous nations, more so than even the United States, but individually almost inconsequential.

As for your calculations:

• It is not necessarily always easy to have such a simple calculation.
  Opening up job markets to foreigners can be pretty hard for many people. And to do that in a positive way must involve a mechanism where you can ingrain them into domestic society seemlessly, something which China isn't yet capable of.
  Outbound investment, doesn't lead to growth of domestic GDP.
• Again, investment abroad is all good and well, but it doesn't do anything for domestic GDP, often the most important source of national power.

So you see now we got this point concluded, i.e. a smaller population has nothing to do with crisis.

Just let businesses deal with markets, supply of labor, etc.

You are talking about Total Power, a constituent being size of GDP. Yes, population size is factor of Total Power. But my questions are
1) Why a smaller Total Power is a Crisis from your view?
2) Say Total Power = Pop x Per Capita Strength. If the decline in pop is mild while Per Capita Strength increase is fast, then Total Power still grow right?

 

[Yizhi]

India's total fertility rate is 2.3.

That means it is above replacement right now. No worries for now.

And yes, it is low in cities, I accept that.

overall 2.3 now? wow that's dropping more quickly than i thought, last time i checked it was at about 2.5.

btw in the chart your replacement level is at around 2.2 is because India has higher child mortality rates, so probably not that far as you think.

this is a world phenomenon though, can be applied to the entire developing world.

Fertility rate, total (births per woman)

World Development Indicators (WDI), October 2015

i choose some countries for comparison, note how Thailand is at 1.4 even lower than Japan dropping quickly, and China is slowly climbing back with 90s youth just start having kids. i put Japan here cause many now seems to think Chinese demographics is somehow as bad as Japan while in reality China is not even close to the Japanese level.

another interesting case here is Vietnam with now fertility rate 1.7 on par with China but at much lower development level (no offense), so if China is doomed because of undereplacment fertility, where should Vietnam be? hell?

India dropping really fast, in fact the speed of declining is about the same with China in early 90s.

my point is if Chinese demographics REALLY worries you, you should start worrying about the world (developed and developing alike). the way you are obsessed with only the Chinese ones here is ignoring the bigger picture does not help with analyzing the current situation.

 

[Bussard Ramjet]

So you see now we got this point concluded, i.e. a smaller population has nothing to do with crisis.

Just let businesses deal with markets, supply of labor, etc.

You are talking about Total Power, a constituent being size of GDP. Yes, population size is factor of Total Power. But y question is: Why a smaller Total Power is a Crisis?

It depends on what one means by "crisis."

Look at Japanese history, and their economy. Once the population over 60 kept rising, and the dependency ratio kept increasing, it put a lot of strain on the economy. From being an asian production power house, with huge savings and surpluses, everything changed.

The savings rates declined quite a bit, surpluses vanished, and the economy in general stagnated.

So there are quite a few things that will happen. You might not label it a crisis, I will call one, due to the load that will be put on people. There will be literally hundreds of millions of people retiring, who will be supported by far less number in workforce.

Also, as I say, nations and communities are not strictly individuals, or collection of individuals. They have their own memory.

overall 2.3 now? wow that's dropping more quickly than i thought, last time i checked it was at about 2.5.

btw in the chart your replacement level is at around 2.2 is because India has higher child mortality rates, so probably not that far as you think.

this is a world phenomenon though, can be applied to the entire developing world.

Fertility rate, total (births per woman)

View attachment 267228

World Development Indicators (WDI), October 2015

i choose some countries for comparison, note how Thailand is at 1.4 even lower than Japan dropping quickly, and China is slowly climbing back with 90s youth just start having kids. i put Japan here cause many now seems to think Chinese demographics is somehow as bad as Japan while in reality China is not even close to the Japanese level.

another interesting case here is Vietnam with now fertility rate 1.7 on par with China but at much lower development level (no offense), so if China is doomed because of undereplacment fertility, where should Vietnam be? hell?

India dropping really fast, in fact the speed of declining is about the same with China in early 90s.

my point is if Chinese demographics REALLY worries you, you should start worrying about the world (developed and developing alike). the way you are obsessed with only the Chinese ones here is ignoring the bigger picture does not help with analyzing the current situation.

I will get back to you, after looking into the data. Sometimes I don't trust the data. I will have to look up sources, and see if they are comparing everything equally. They are two kinds of fertility rates primarily, one is Unadjusted Fertility rates, and the other adjusted fertility rate.

So you see now we got this point concluded, i.e. a smaller population has nothing to do with crisis.

Just let businesses deal with markets, supply of labor, etc.

You are talking about Total Power, a constituent being size of GDP. Yes, population size is factor of Total Power. But my questions are
1) Why a smaller Total Power is a Crisis from your view?
2) Say Total Power = Pop x Per Capita Strength. If the decline in pop is mild while Per Capita Strength increase is fast, then Total Power still grow right?

1. Depends on one's views of Crisis. In the coming time, there will be demographic bullet to be swallowed. (It is not my term, it is common in literature) That is today's larger workforce will become old, and form the aged, go into retirement, and will be supported by lesser number of people in the workforce. This will lead to burden on society, especially in the form of production constraints, and the loss of previous savings. Japan essentially went through the same thing, it led to decreasing production, loss of surpluses, and decrease in savings.
2. Technically yes, but there is a ceiling or upper limit to human performance. All humans in general are capable of the same amount. The ceiling is about 45k dollars. All other countries with per capita income above that are either too small, too resource rich, or simply invite selective immigration. That is to invite in higher performing people from other countries.
3. Not only this, since almost all people are fundamentally equal of the same things, this leads catching up in percapita terms to be a necessary imperative. This is the reason why developing countries all over the world have such high growth rates, while developed world grows at around 1%. (Only US is an exception because it invites a large number of highly skilled immigrants)

 

[Shotgunner51]

It depends on what one means by "crisis."

That's what I am curious about when you mentioned "crisis", so what is it?

Look at Japanese history, and their economy. Once the population over 60 kept rising, and the dependency ratio kept increasing, it put a lot of strain on the economy. From being an asian production power house, with huge savings and surpluses, everything changed.

The savings rates declined quite a bit, surpluses vanished, and the economy in general stagnated.

So there are quite a few things that will happen. You might not label it a crisis, I will call one, due to the load that will be put on people. There will be literally hundreds of millions of people retiring, who will be supported by far less number in workforce.

Also, as I say, nations and communities are not strictly individuals, or collection of individuals. They have their own memory.

So you mean Singapore, Japan, are experiencing "crisis"? Well in fact what they are experiencing is very nice to have, say high net wealth per capita. Let me give you an example, an old Japanese engineer owning a factory in Thailand, the activities (GDP) are not in sovereign order of his country, neither are the profits (trade surpluses). But this old Japanese guy got a good business (Positive NIIP + earnings from FDI), Thai workers got their jobs (labor, job opportunities). If he doesn't have a kid, maybe his lucky nephew inherits his wealth.

Many people like me are looking to retire at about mid 40's, some will just play (like playing PDF here), some will do investment, either way we don't depend on the next generation to feed us, let alone we might even have to provide like houses and other extra betterments for them.

 

[Bussard Ramjet]

That's what I am curious about when you mentioned "crisis", so what is it?



So you mean Singapore, Japan, are experiencing "crisis"? Well in fact what they are experiencing is very nice to have, say high net wealth per capita. Let me give you an example, an old Japanese engineer owning a factory in Thailand, the activities (GDP) are not in sovereign order of his country, neither are the profits (trade surpluses). But this old Japanese guy got a good business (Positive NIIP + earnings from FDI), Thai workers got their jobs (labor, job opportunities). If he doesn't have a kid, maybe his lucky nephew inherits his wealth.

Many people like me are looking to retire at about mid 40's, some will just play (like playing PDF here), some will do investment, either way we don't depend on the next generation to feed us, let alone we might even have to provide like houses and other extra betterments for them.

Singapore isn't facing a crisis, because it is bringing in immigrants, and it is a small city, which can live off immigration.

As for Japan, yes it is facing many challenges. It has stagnated. Also, foreign investments may lead to personal wealth of some, but not really in the wealth of majority.

If you want to see the clear indication of this, than see no further than PDF itself, where everyone believes Japan is fading. Why? Because of GDP. and relative strength.

 

[Shotgunner51]

Singapore isn't facing a crisis, because it is bringing in immigrants, and it is a small city, which can live off immigration.

As for Japan, yes it is facing many challenges. It has stagnated. Also, foreign investments may lead to personal wealth of some, but not really in the wealth of majority.

If you want to see the clear indication of this, than see no further than PDF itself, where everyone believes Japan is fading. Why? Because of GDP. and relative strength.

Not wealth of majority? Check again, for cases like Japan, Singapore, indicators like Gini, density of millionaires (NOT billionaires), size of middle-class (high bars), etc.

GDP? Check again the definition of this statistics. Firstly the "D" means activities happening inside any confined land, not activities by people of this land. Secondly, it's a reflection of activities, not reserves/wealth. Singapore, Hong Kong, Taiwan, are all major international investors with huge NIIP, Japan even tops the world for last 23 years, where does this wealth come from?

You are serious about PDF'ers here on China's real view on Japan? Just bashing and trolling, politically correct on "either hate Japan or a traitor", be amused. On a serious comparison, check how CASS sees nation compares.

Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS) has been compiling a putative measure - Comprehensive National Power (CNP) - which refers to the combined overall conditions and strengths of a country in numerous areas. The CNP serves as one reference tool in China's strategic planning. For details please check: China Debates the Future Security Environment

CASS just published the "Global Political & Security Report (2015)", in which CNP data were included. From this assessment which is a unique Chinese perspective, US leads by far in national strength, followed by the league of Japan, China, Russia & Germany, which are about in the same bracket

​

 

[Bussard Ramjet]

Not wealth of majority? Check again, for cases like Japan, Singapore, indicators like Gini, density of millionaires (NOT billionaires), size of middle-class (high bars), etc.

GDP? Check again the definition of this statistics. Firstly the "D" means activities happening inside any confined land, not activities by people of this land. Secondly, it's a reflection of activities, not reserves/wealth. Singapore, Hong Kong, Taiwan, are all major international investors with huge NIIP, Japan even tops the world for last 23 years, where does this wealth come from?

You are serious about PDF'ers here on China's real view on Japan? Just bashing and trolling, politically correct on "either hate Japan or a traitor", be amused. On a serious comparison, check how CASS sees nation compares.

Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS) has been compiling a putative measure - Comprehensive National Power (CNP) - which refers to the combined overall conditions and strengths of a country in numerous areas. The CNP serves as one reference tool in China's strategic planning. For details please check: China Debates the Future Security Environment

CASS just published the "Global Political & Security Report (2015)", in which CNP data were included. From this assessment which is a unique Chinese perspective, US leads by far in national strength, followed by the league of Japan, China, Russia & Germany, which are about in the same bracket

​

Let's look at it this way: Is Japan happy about its population decline, and ageing population? The answer is an overwhelming No.

As for GDP and GNP etc. I again say what I have been reiterating, that one person can only go to a certain level after which the growth plateaus.

 

[Yizhi]

It depends on what one means by "crisis."

Look at Japanese history, and their economy. Once the population over 60 kept rising, and the dependency ratio kept increasing, it put a lot of strain on the economy. From being an asian production power house, with huge savings and surpluses, everything changed.

The savings rates declined quite a bit, surpluses vanished, and the economy in general stagnated.

So there are quite a few things that will happen. You might not label it a crisis, I will call one, due to the load that will be put on people. There will be literally hundreds of millions of people retiring, who will be supported by far less number in workforce.

Also, as I say, nations and communities are not strictly individuals, or collection of individuals. They have their own memory.




I will get back to you, after looking into the data. Sometimes I don't trust the data. I will have to look up sources, and see if they are comparing everything equally. They are two kinds of fertility rates primarily, one is Unadjusted Fertility rates, and the other adjusted fertility rate.

1. Depends on one's views of Crisis. In the coming time, there will be demographic bullet to be swallowed. (It is not my term, it is common in literature) That is today's larger workforce will become old, and form the aged, go into retirement, and will be supported by lesser number of people in the workforce. This will lead to burden on society, especially in the form of production constraints, and the loss of previous savings. Japan essentially went through the same thing, it led to decreasing production, loss of surpluses, and decrease in savings.
2. Technically yes, but there is a ceiling or upper limit to human performance. All humans in general are capable of the same amount. The ceiling is about 45k dollars. All other countries with per capita income above that are either too small, too resource rich, or simply invite selective immigration. That is to invite in higher performing people from other countries.
3. Not only this, since almost all people are fundamentally equal of the same things, this leads catching up in percapita terms to be a necessary imperative. This is the reason why developing countries all over the world have such high growth rates, while developed world grows at around 1%. (Only US is an exception because it invites a large number of highly skilled immigrants)

@Bussard Ramjet so this is a 'i will only be satisfied if i get 95 in exam, below 90 is a crisis (my definition must be true) i shall go commit suicide' situation?

you know most of us are very comfortable with getting a 85, let alone many others barely make it to 60.

this level of perfectionism is unhealthy, and it shows up in every one of your China thread, to a point i feel you are talking about an imaginary dream land in parallel universe instead of the real country i live in..

 

[Shotgunner51]

Let's look at it this way: Is Japan happy about its population decline, and ageing population? The answer is an overwhelming No.

Could you show me the survey results?
The answer should be: "It doesn't matter".
Anyway show me please.

 

[CHN Bamboo]

@Bussard Ramjet so this is a 'i will only be satisfied if i get 95 in exam, below 90 is a crisis (my definition must be true) i shall go commit suicide' situation?

you know most of us are very comfortable with getting a 85, let alone many others barely make it to 60.

this level of perfectionism is unhealthy, and it shows up in every one of your China thread, to a point i feel you are talking about an imaginary dream land in parallel universe instead of the real country i live in..

This guy at least knows a lot about China,much better than most Indian.

 

[Shotgunner51]

This guy at least knows a lot about China,much better than most Indian.

Yes, he's the only Indian here worthwhile to have an educated debate with.

 

[Jlaw]

That is a taboo in china,cuz it go against the entire education that every chinese have receives.It's you indian should shut up,none of your business.

You have an easier time shutting up a woman than an Indian. They are known for big mouths.

World record breaker Dinesh Upadhyay could have the largest mouth ever | Metro News

 

[Okemos]

Let market decide it, or else you will have huge amount of non performing assets in your banks, which will then lead to a debt crisis.

So government should step aside from developing things, and give market more chance. If there will be demand then things should be built. China has done this mistake before, it has humongous excess capacities in many sectors like cement, steel, glass etc.



Speech is a very important part of personality and leadership. Not the only thing for sure, but very important.

Today the western media is able to roll over you. The only thing that you are able to do is to lock your citizens up inside the GFW. This shows lack of confidence. Instead of going the other direction, you are forced to hide in your well.

Totally agree with you.

In fact, China is saturated with infrastructure that is not working properly. I just came back from half of years stay in China. When I saw all those wind power towers lining up the seashores of Shanghai, not moving!, it makes me sad. My hometown's environment has been destroyed, in exchange for non performing infrastructure.

Back to your topic, the biggest problem China facing right now is mistrust among its people, and cynical views about anything except money.

Also do not ever debate with mainland Chinese, lol This is what I learned from talking to my high school and college classmates when in China. I am now only talking about entertainment news with them. They have been living in a country with voluntary self-censorship,. which is worse than government censorship.

 

[LowPost]

They have been living in a country with voluntary self-censorship,. which is worse than government censorship.

Very funny. Cut the insinuating generalisations, please.