What is the biggest problem facing China according to you people?

[Bussard Ramjet]

I just found out that the fertility rates are even lower in cities like Beijing, and Shanghai, where they are way below 1!

No body seems to be able to grasp here the magnitude of the problem, the demographic challenge confronting China.

 

[CHN Bamboo]

I just found out that the fertility rates are even lower in cities like Beijing, and Shanghai, where they are way below 1!

No body seems to be able to grasp here the magnitude of the problem, the demographic challenge confronting China.

In the future,India will have the same problem too.
Now many couples dont want to have many children,they cost a lot!So the fertility of Beijing and Shanghai r low.

 

[Bussard Ramjet]

In the future,India will have the same problem too.
Now many couples dont want to have many children,they cost a lot!So the fertility of Beijing and Shanghai r low.

Our fertility rates in the middle educated urban class would be around 2. But that is the whole thing isn't it.

Once the people get rich, and educated, they don't want many kids. So China will face a tough time in the future persuading them to have kids.

 

[Shotgunner51]

In the future,India will have the same problem too.
Now many couples dont want to have many children,they cost a lot!So the fertility of Beijing and Shanghai r low.

In Shanghai, having a kid = baby sitter, Gymboree, foods, piano class, tutorial class, bigger house, all sorts of toys for 25 years, clothing, extra-curricular activities, car, extra travel budget, pocket money, parties, college, his/her own house after graduation ... and of course extra spending for his/her mother too ... do the maths.

Sigh ..........

 

[Bussard Ramjet]

In Shanghai, having a kid = extra nutrients for his/her mother, baby sitter, Gymboree, foods, piano class, tutorial class, bigger house, all sorts of toys for 25 years, clothing, car, extra travel budget, pocket money, parties, college, his/her own house after graduation, ... do the maths.

That is the reason, state policy is almost totally ineffective in forcing people to have kids. Just see Singapore. If the state indeed does this, it becomes really costly.

 

[Shotgunner51]

That is the reason, state policy is almost totally ineffective in forcing people to have kids. Just see Singapore. If the state indeed does this, it becomes really costly.

Check Macau, Hong Kong, Taiwan, Korea, Singapore, all these have the lowest birth/fertility rates on earth. Note, these are also among the most developed economies with highest per capita productivity and wealth.

2015 World Population Data Sheet – PRB.org​

No policy is going to work, not even financial stimulus or tax holiday, since it's a cultural thing. East Asian parents devot everything possible to education and up-bringing of the kid(s), that includes their own limited time. China wouldn't be exception, Shanghai and other cities are the just the beginning, eventually the whole urbanized population as well as whatever rural population left will experience low fertility rate.

China population will peak soon if not already has, future reduction is inevitable.

 

[Bussard Ramjet]

Check Macau, Hong Kong, Taiwan, Korea, Singapore, all these have the lowest birth/fertility rates on earth. Note, these are also among the most developed economies with highest per capita productivity and wealth.

2015 World Population Data Sheet – PRB.org​

No policy is going to work, not even financial stimulus or tax holiday, since it's a cultural thing. East Asian parents devot everything possible to education and up-bringing of the kid(s), that includes their own limited time. China wouldn't be exception, Shanghai and other cities are the just the beginning, eventually the whole urbanized population as well as whatever rural population left will experience low fertility rate.

China population will peak soon, and then begin to reduce.

And hence, the reason to quickly relax birth policies.

As I say, the number of people in your labor force determine your present. And the number of people in your children age group determine your future.

China's labor force has already begun to decline.

 

[Shotgunner51]

And hence, the reason to quickly relax birth policies.

As I say, the number of people in your labor force determine your present. And the number of people in your children age group determine your future.

China's labor force has already begun to decline.

It doesn't matter, it will happen whatever policies are in-place. Did you check those examples?

 

[Bussard Ramjet]

It doesn't matter, it will happen whatever policies are in-place. Did you check those examples?

If the policies are relaxed now, things can be changed. There is a poor base in China still, which can help. Also, even if all were not to be averted, the harshest things can be changed.

China is facing a demographic crisis like none other, and they are not willing to accept it.

Most of your Chinese compatriots, don't even think that it is a big deal, believing that it is under control of CCP. The problem being that it is much easier to stop people from having kids, than to force them to have kids.

 

[Shotgunner51]

If the policies are relaxed now, things can be changed. There is a poor base in China still, which can help. Also, even if all were not to be averted, the harshest things can be changed.

China is facing a demographic crisis like none other, and they are not willing to accept it.

Most of your Chinese compatriots, don't even think that it is a big deal, believing that it is under control of CCP. The problem being that it is much easier to stop people from having kids, than to force them to have kids.

Nothings gonna revert the trend, I have explained, it's a cultural thing, hence inevitable.

Do you see any demo crisis in South Korea, Singapore or Taiwan? If no, then same for China, I don't see any crisis here in Shanghai. If yes, what are their crises?

 

[rcrmj]

to my own opinion, it has to be banking, stock exchange and civil services```as per economy and social welfare

in terms of culture, we need to revive our tradition and value

 

[Bussard Ramjet]

Nothings gonna revert the trend, I have explained, it's a cultural thing, hence inevitable.

Do you see any demo crisis in South Korea, Singapore or Taiwan? If no, then same for China, I don't see any crisis here in Shanghai. If yes, what are their crises?

Yes, I see a huge approaching demo crisis in Korea.

Singapore is a rich small city. It can, and is currently compensating for the low fertility rates with high quality foreign immigration.

There may be no crisis for Shanghai in particular, because it can always invite internal migrants from rest of China.

But the demographic crisis is gonna hit China overall.

The labor force has already started declining. Will continue to decline.

As I say, number of people determine almost everything in an economy. The consumption as well as the production. Technology can be useful in upgrading the average production per worker. But, technology, specially in today's world, is highly mobile and easily available to all nations.

Hence, the prediction of the grand convergence. That ultimately living standards and production per worker will be the same.

 

[Yizhi]

Our fertility rates in the middle educated urban class would be around 2.

you sure about this? i recall reading it somewhere your city folks are also below 2, not that much different from other big cities around the world. many islamic cities share the same declining rates despite the 'Muslims have more babies' sterotype.

you really should start worrying more about India's demographics too, if under replacement rate worries you that much.

 

[Bussard Ramjet]

you sure about this? i recall reading it somewhere your city folks are also below 2, not that much different from other big cities around the world. many islamic cities share the same declining rates despite the 'Muslims have more babies' sterotype.

you really should start worrying more about India's demographics too, if under replacement rate worries you that much.

India's total fertility rate is 2.3.

That means it is above replacement right now. No worries for now.

And yes, it is low in cities, I accept that.

 

[Shotgunner51]

Yes, I see a huge approaching demo crisis in Korea.

Singapore is a rich small city. It can, and is currently compensating for the low fertility rates with high quality foreign immigration.

There may be no crisis for Shanghai in particular, because it can always invite internal migrants from rest of China.

But the demographic crisis is gonna hit China overall.

The labor force has already started declining. Will continue to decline.

As I say, number of people determine almost everything in an economy. The consumption as well as the production. Technology can be useful in upgrading the average production per worker. But, technology, specially in today's world, is highly mobile and easily available to all nations.

Hence, the prediction of the grand convergence. That ultimately living standards and production per worker will be the same.

I still don't see the point of a smaller population being a crisis, at best what you described are tactical issues, fully manageable, just business calculations:

• If a nation lacks labor force, then (1) open the specific job markets to foreign supply, or (2) outbound investment to where labor is available.
• If a nation lacks a specific market, then (1) downsize investment or close down the business, or (2) outbound investment to where market is available.

Prosperity of population, not size, is the objective.