What is Modi's real game plan in Kashmir?

[Verve]

Sir you are comparing puddle with ocean the whole indian nuclear arsenal can't do what that earthquake did teratons of energy from beneath so please don't compare that with an Indian attack they will loose many aircrafts ground based radars etc on the first day i guarantee you they can't close kkh for one week and what will be the aftermath for them a two front war with a good chance of nuclear exchange not to say anything about their own communication lines in iok destroyed so they absolutely won't attack GB or kkh not even for their lord krishna don't even mention Israel or usa. Sorry for a harsher tone sir

Let's see what happens.

 

[Fawadqasim1]

Let's see what happens.

That's the spirit sir

 

[LeGenD]

AoA

Below are some of my thoughts on what I think Modi's real game plan on Kashmir is. It is kind of disorganized due to back pain so apologies in advance.

Modi has split Kashmir in two Union Territories (& not States - please differentiate between the two as that is important - UTs have their own laws whereas States do not) and this will give him the opportunity to amend the laws of each. Therein is the flexibility for amendments specifically for the Valley - the main area of resistance. Overall the Hindutvas are celebrating the de-operationalizing of Article 370 and Trump's offer is a thing of the past. Modi is happy and so are his fellow fascists.

Main objective has been achieved. Ladakh, pro-India, is where the development and investment will flow to including possible US/Israeli military bases. Hence USA's backing.

It is highly unlikely that local and foreign investors will invest in the Valley anytime soon due to high risk of conflict and insurgency. Chinese will not attack Ladakh unless India attacks China (unlikely) - Taiwan and Hong Kong are it's main priority so result will be punitive diplomatic actions from China. Is Pakistan going to start a war over these changes in Ladakh? Highly unlikely.

BJP leaders in Jammu have already asked Modi not to allow free movement (i.e. relocation and purchase of land) by outsiders. Ladakh will allow that whereas J&K will not. This will add to cooling down the situation in the Valley and the Hindutvas won't make too much noise about it as the request has come from BJP leaders amongst other celebrations. Clever move this.

Israeli tactics at display. Clamp down the areas of maximum resistance whilst taking over the areas of least resistance.

So what is likely to happen in the Valley?

Well, there will be mass protests after the curfew is lifted but movement in and out of Valley will remain very much restricted. Troops will be pulled back to allow normalancy and things to cool down. Genocide may have been a provisional part of the plan but I do not think it was the operative - cut off Ladakh from the Valley. Valley will be the open air jail with no freedom of movement in and out.

Demography in the Valley will not be changed in the short run.

No Genocide = no PaK Army attack

Many more will join Freedom Fighters and insurgency will pick up pace over the next few years. Heavy troop deployment will assure that it remains confined to Valley only. Only when insurgency starts to peak, we will likely witness the beginning of the genocide (fitna as per NSW). Some time to go.

Will India attack AJK?

Unlikely. If only one looks at the Fascists and the way they control their public, they will be diverted to celebrate Ladakh and attack on GB. All it takes is a slight change of direction by their media and it's done.

Will India attack GB?

Likely, after a false flag. This serves both US and Indian interests (to cut off China and Pakistan, and India having land route to Afghanistan) and it may just be shortly after the curfew is lifted or in spring.

Short Localised Northern war. Indian media will beat the drums of victory and Fascists will celebrate. As usual, Indoo army casualties will be classified as suicides.

There is little information on what the proxies are doing on the Eastern border. However in the light of COAS's recent statement, it seems that two front Northern war is on the card.

Are we heading for the Final War now?

Not now. Indian forces need more weapons for that and it just doesn't seem to fall in place to say that it is happening anytime soon. Pakistan's policy has been defensive but events leading up to the Final War will change the policy to the offensive. That will be the genocide in the Valley.

----

Winter is approaching so localised Northern war will have to be very soon or when the ice starts to melt. I still think it will be a two front war and Modi may have been pushed to make this move earlier than planned.

What I find really interesting are the voices from the Zionist controlled Western Media. Overall my conclusion is that the focus is being kept on the curfew in Valley whilst illegal take over of Ladakh has totally been sidelined/omitted. All seems pre-planned.

US/Israeli military bases in Ladakh?

What did I miss?

Fully agreed with the OP. Indians don't have it in them to take such decisions. US and Israel is fully involved.

What USA plans to do right now is to support India fully to cut Pakistan's link with China. USA want to stop China's access to Indian ocean and end CPEC. This is why China's top military leadership recently met with our entire leadership.

In the coming months or weeks even, India would most definitely attack AJK and GB; and USA either directly or through its terrorist proxies like ISIS terrorists, which CIA has brought from middle-east and right now sitting in Afghanistan, would engage Pakistan in a bloody war. We would be fighting on eastern and western fronts in a limited war.

But IA we would come out on top.

But they plan, and Allah plans. And Allah is the best of planners. (8:30)

Bro, do people have credible information about this nexus in the works?

This is an exceedingly bold assertion IMHO.

Do you see US equipping India with cutting-edge defensive systems to counter a potential Pakistani nuclear attack on its soil? Last time I checked, Russia agreed to bolster Indian defenses with S-400 systems, and these will arrive in the region in 2023.

In case you did not notice, US and India are having problems of their own. Donald Trump cancelled STS (Special Trade Status) for India not long ago [1], and US is also upset with Indian decision to procure Russian S-400 systems [2].

[1] https://www.nytimes.com/2019/05/31/business/trump-india-trade.html

[2] https://www.rt.com/news/467531-india-prepayment-russia-s400/

This whole Indo-US romance is overblown.

Regarding CPEC, it is just one leg of the overarching OBOR project. Blocking this route will not achieve much because China's economic activity is global. US is seeking Quadilateral Security Dialogue to contain China which is a matter of much greater scale and scope than merely blocking CPEC.

 

[fitpOsitive]

Modis plan is to follow the orders of his american masters.

 

[war&peace]

Fully agreed with the OP. Indians don't have it in them to take such decisions. US and Israel is fully involved.

What USA plans to do right now is to support India fully to cut Pakistan's link with China. USA want to stop China's access to Indian ocean and end CPEC. This is why China's top military leadership recently met with our entire leadership.

In the coming months or weeks even, India would most definitely attack AJK and GB; and USA either directly or through its terrorist proxies like ISIS terrorists, which CIA has brought from middle-east and right now sitting in Afghanistan, would engage Pakistan in a bloody war. We would be fighting on eastern and western fronts in a limited war.

But IA we would come out on top.

But they plan, and Allah plans. And Allah is the best of planners. (8:30)

I tell you one thing... we will take down the malka..

 

[Verve]

Donald Trump cancelled STS (Special Trade Status) for India not long ago

Please tell us if 'Major Defence Partner' status of India has been cancelled as well.

 

[Fawadqasim1]

US/Israeli military bases in Ladakh?

What did I miss?


Bro, do people have credible information about this nexus in the works?

This is an exceedingly bold assertion IMHO.

Do you see US equipping India with cutting-edge defensive systems to counter a potential Pakistani nuclear attack on its soil? Last time I checked, Russia agreed to bolster Indian defenses with S-400 systems, and these will arrive in the region in 2023.

In case you did not notice, US and India are having problems of their own. Donald Trump cancelled STS (Special Trade Status) for India not long ago [1], and US is also upset with Indian decision to procure Russian S-400 systems [2].

[1] https://www.nytimes.com/2019/05/31/business/trump-india-trade.html

[2] https://www.rt.com/news/467531-india-prepayment-russia-s400/

This whole Indo-US romance is overblown.

Regarding CPEC, it is just one leg of the overarching OBOR project. Blocking this route will not achieve much because China's economic activity is global. US is seeking Quadilateral Security Dialogue to contain China, and CPEC is the least of its concerns.

Regarding CPEC, it is just one leg of the overarching OBOR project.

Yes sir but the most economical strategic and important part of obor its incapacitation even temporary would be
More politico-strategic blow to china rather than economic I hope you understand what I am contemplating. Btw how are you sir

I tell you one thing... we will take down the malka..

With us sir

 

[war&peace]

Please tell us if 'Major Defence Partner' status of India has been cancelled as well.

Never waste time on a pathological liar... he can use Islam and Islamic terms to fool people here.

 

[LeGenD]

Please tell us if 'Major Defence Partner' status of India has been cancelled as well.

India have lot of money, and every major supplier of arms in the world would want to sell its weapons to India if possible. These type of designations are efforts to court India in this regard, not much else.

I do not see the possibility of India going out of its way to court US for latter's interests because India have its own interests to pursue in which Russia have a role to play and India would even want to keep channels of diplomacy open with China in the long-term.

Indians are smarter than you realize.

Yes sir but the most economical strategic and important part of obor its incapacitation even temporary would be
More politico-strategic blow to china rather than economic I hope you understand what I am contemplating. Btw how are you sir


With us sir

I am OK, bro. Thanks for asking.

I see your point but China is already enduring much worse in its trade war with US, blocking CPEC won't change a dime in the grand scheme of things. Shots have already been fired.

 

[Smarana Mitra]

Fully agreed with the OP. Indians don't have it in them to take such decisions. US and Israel is fully involved.

What is needed in someone to take such decision? USA is hostile to India and only pretending to talk nice words.

Modi feels he is confronting an economically weak and bitterly divided Pakistan at the moment. He can get away with his contentious RSS mindset all the time with impunity because of his global economic clout and insensitivity of others. The only course i see for us is an AAR YA PAAR scenario viz a viz India. I am pretty sure a slight indication of our intentions will scare the entire investors brigade from India and leave it Economically reeling. This will make Mr Dhoti Parsad come to the tables.

You are not dealing with congress. RSS does not give up its ideology. People like me will not give up what we stand for. Intention display will not change anything. India will do what is in its interests. If Pakistan wants to attack, it is free to do so.

4-6 strikes on parts of Karakoram Highway can set CPEC back many months if not more than a year. It will hurt land route trade badly due to everything coming to a halt. And then there are military targets in GB as well. Karakoram Highway is merely 60kms from Cease Fire Line.

100s of sorties for 10 or so targets?

Senior most Chinese military delegation visit and the new defence MOU are due to the seriousness of the situation. Indian air strikes in GB are a real threat.

India doesn't care for CPEC. Moreover, it won't take just few hours to take down roads. May be done bridges can be struck but otherwise the damage is limited and will only take quick repairs.
It makes no sense to attack trade route. Unless India see China sending supplies to Pakistan army, there is no reason for India to attack.

Even if India attacks, China won't respond against India as long as India won't attack Chinese territory or intentionally attack Chinese people in Pakistan.

So, its not India who is doing all this nonsense, its US and Israel who're driving the bus from behind.

Israel is Indian friend but USA is not. So don't include USA as someone helping India.

modi is in catch 22 situation. mark this post.

There would have been catch 22 if Kashmir was quiet. Since kashmir was misbehaving for years now, it really doesn't matter. It is same thing.

I don't think it'll be a localised war either. I think Pakistan will take the opportunity to target and downgrade India's economic assets with it's missile force. This war will cost India dearly and set it's economy back decades.
It'll be a great leveller for us.

India can rebuild everything as the key component is technology. India has built up 80% of current infrastructure in last 20 years. Indian GDP in 1999 was $450 billion. Now it is $2.8 trillion. Similarly, power generation, roads, automobile etc have all been Enhanced by 4-5 times in last 20 years. Rebuilding is not an issue.

Possible, if bridges are hit and their support structures collapse. Reconstruction, even if on rapid pace, would involve months.

War ignores bridges. Bridges are always the first to be hit. There is enough preparation for that.

Well it came as a bolt out of the blue for me but i remember my MOTHER telling me that the muslims and the Chinese will fight the 3rd world war against the 'enemy' US and the rest of the 'cocktail'. The muslims and Chinese will triumph, then there'll be some discord between the muslims and the Chinese and another war will happen and the muslims will triumph. When that happens there will be harmony for a brief period in the world and then the day of judgement will arrive by the Will of Allah. Its amazing how these prophesies work. For us muslims its a part of emaan as well. Too far fetched at this stage but lets see, its a jail- this dunya for a momin anyway according to hadith.

Why will come risk its people to fight for Muslims? China will do business but expecting it to lose lot of people to fight wars for Muslims is funny. Moreover, China has never displayed intention of favoring Islam its history

 

[Fawadqasim1]

India have lot of money, and every major supplier of arms in the world would want to sell its weapons to India if possible. These type of designations are efforts to court India in this regard, not much else.

I do not see the possibility of India going out of its way to court US for latter's interests because India have its own interests to pursue in which Russia have a role to play and India would even want to keep channels of diplomacy open with China in the long-term.

Indians are smarter than you realize.


I am OK, bro. Thanks for asking.

I see your point but China is already enduring much worse in its trade war with US, blocking CPEC won't change a dime in the grand scheme of things. Shots have already been fired.

Sir there is a difference between tariff and turf

 

[Reddington]

Regarding CPEC, it is just one leg of the overarching OBOR project. Blocking this route will not achieve much because China's economic activity is global. US is seeking Quadilateral Security Dialogue to contain China which is a matter of much greater scale and scope than merely blocking CPEC.

CPEC or rather Gwadar is the heart of OBOR. Right now out of more or less 1000 US military bases in the world, more than 400 US military bases are in Asia pacific/South China Sea/East China Sea etc just around China. Which means in case of war US can close Malacca Straits which would mean no oil/trade for China. No oil means wars can not be fought.

Which effectively means that right now USA has got China by the balls.

To counter that move, China started CPEC which would mean China can bypass Malacca Straits, South China Sea etc and oil will come from Gulf to Gwadar and then straight to China and which will reduce time as well.

So now USA has to counter this move. USA now wants to block Chinese access to Arabian sea which Gwadar gives to China. So here comes India into the picture. USA now will fully back India to attack GB and AJK and cut Pakistan's link with China. Even the recent Indian move of removing Article 370A couldn't have taken place without support from USA.

 

[Bil]

Israel is Indian friend but USA is not. So don't include USA as someone helping India.

At time I dont understand what's the idea behind cherry picking the ONLY part of somebody's post you want to address and reply.

Anyways, yes, Israel is your friend, but tell me which friend jump in the fight of another country? We are not talking about kid's street fight here, we're talking about war in between countries.

Also, USA is your strategic partner not Israel.

 

[Smarana Mitra]

Also, USA is your strategic partner not Israel

Even UAE is Indian strategic partner. My only internet is to say that USA is not Indian ally or friend. So bringing in US to take credit away from Indian resolve and capability is wrong

 

[Bil]

Even UAE is Indian strategic partner. My only internet is to say that USA is not Indian ally or friend. So bringing in US to take credit away from Indian resolve and capability is wrong

What credit? Whats are you talking about?