What if PTI also failed to fix the economy in 2023-2028 term?

[JamD]

So the problem is crystal clear and in front of every one.
What's the solution? Revolution or something else?

I don't know. The decision makers have a vested interest in the continuation of this system so don't expect them to do anything out of self interest that's for sure.

 

[ziaulislam]

You are right. Indeed the foreign exchange reserves reflect that

View attachment 843142

The problem with infographics shared by PTI supporters is that they capture only a convenient snapshot in time. They do not reflect the reality that foreign exchange reserves float and usually it is some function of oil price in the preceding months

No it doesnt
Reserves drop dramtically from 2015-2018 depsite haveing 2b$ CSF + low oil prices

Reserves should have gone up dramatically
As huge inflows happened via CSF

 

[ghazi52]

.,.,
Nawaz has called Shahbaz along with the cabinet to teach him big tricks of corruption.
Staying in the ministry, from where to loot, how to send money, everyone will remember.....

 

[ziaulislam]

 

[Wood]

No it doesnt
Reserves drop dramtically from 2015-2018 depsite haveing 2b$ CSF + low oil prices

Reserves should have gone up dramatically
As huge inflows happened via CSF

Here is the crude oil price chart from US department of energy

We clearly see a trend that in 2018, oil prices have jumped from $40 in 2017 to about $63 by the time Imran got into office in 2018. After that the prices dropped briefly in 2019 and then completely crashed to as low as $15 in April 2020 (futures were negative at the time). The whole of 2020 has low fuel price - lower than 2016! This allowed Imran to shore up foreign reserves considerably. There seems to be a correlation with the rise and drop in foreign reserves for Pakistan.

If this obvious correlation in two datasets does not appeal to your rational, then what is in your opinion the reason for drop in reserves? What evidence can you cite to support the claim? Imran's oil subsidy has the same effect on foreign reserves as burning $ to shore up PKR (as you often say).

 

[ziaulislam]

Here is the crude oil price chart from US department of energy

View attachment 843168

We clearly see a trend that in 2018, oil prices have jumped from $40 in 2017 to about $63 by the time Imran got into office in 2018. After that the prices dropped briefly in 2019 and then completely crashed to as low as $15 in April 2020 (futures were negative at the time). The whole of 2020 has low fuel price - lower than 2016! This allowed Imran to shore up foreign reserves considerably. There seems to be a correlation with the rise and drop in foreign reserves for Pakistan.

View attachment 843172

If this obvious correlation in two datasets does not appeal to your rational, then what is in your opinion the reason for drop in reserves? What evidence can you cite to support the claim? Imran's oil subsidy has the same effect on foreign reserves as burning $ to shore up PKR (as you often say).

Brent oil..we dont care
We dont buy brent oil

How would u shore reserves???
Everything was out..exports dropped that yr

You are acting stupid!

 

[Wood]

Brent oil..we dont care
We dont buy brent oil

How would u shore reserves???
Everything was out..exports dropped that yr

You are acting stupid!

Shore reserves means you just don't spend as much on oil. Brent oil or whatever you use, the price trend will likely be the same.

It is CAD (which includes trade deficit) and not merely exports that determine what you can accumulate in net reserve.

Lastly, don't loose your cool. This is just internet talk

 

[pakman12]

I said,

IK ko tou halwa mila tha, pata nahi kis duniya mein rehtay ho tum nainsafians.

Terrorism declined, loadshedding issue was solved, traffic issue was solved due to metros otherwise you would be stuck in traffic cursing IK, railways was improved, motorways network was expanded, Islamabad new airport was finally opened after years of delay otherwise you would be landing in bus station.

Are you retarded? When PTI took over there was nothing left in the treasury. They had to increase taxation and go to IMF to keep up with the huge interest on the loans PMLN had been taking to build your beloved Metro/Orange Train. Halwa indeed.

 

[Hakikat ve Hikmet]

A tragic scene from the Godfather , but it happens in the real life....

 

[ziaulislam]

 

[ziaulislam]

Shore reserves means you just don't spend as much on oil. Brent oil or whatever you use, the price trend will likely be the same.

It is CAD (which includes trade deficit) and not merely exports that determine what you can accumulate in net reserve.

Lastly, don't loose your cool. This is just internet talk

Oh jeez
But u cant export either
It cancel things out!!

 

[SaadH]

If PTI gets a second chance they shouldn't go in w/o 2/3rds majority and if that's the case they should do everything to completely dismantle the mafias including the sacred cows, i.e. establishment and it's hold on power.

This is the only way to improve the economic condition and it won't be possible without much blood letting.

 

[RAMPAGE]

If PTI gets a second chance they shouldn't go in w/o 2/3rds majority and if that's the case they should do everything to completely dismantle the mafias including the sacred cows, i.e. establishment and it's hold on power.

This is the only way to improve the economic condition and it won't be possible without much blood letting.

Reality check: PTI is a part of the mafia - the Pakistani elite.

 

[UKBengali]

There seems little likelihood of any Pakistani government "fixing" the economy this decade at least.

Let us compare the average annual per capita GDP growth rates of BD,Pakistan and India from 2000-2019, split into the two decades.

2000-2009 2010-2019

BD------------------ 4.5-----------5.8

Pakistan-----------2.5-----------2.0

India----------------5.6-----------5.8


What the data shows is that Pakistan is locked into low GDP per capita growth rates of 2-3% a year and so that means it is steady when compared to the developed world. It is neither catching up or falling behind.

BD economic growth is accelerating while India is steady at a respectable 5-6% a year GDP per capita growth.


As I and others have been saying for many years, without the much needed social and economic reforms over many years and decades, as has happened in BD and to a lesser extent in India, Pakistan is simply going to be stuck in this low-growth mode forever.