What if China and US went on a Full scale war ?

[war&peace]

I dont think any other country will be that foolish to join the war of super powers and suffer the destruction.


Exactly , India is losing nothing why would we even fight and make ourselves willing target. Two can fight each other to destruction.

I think you are suffering with comprehension problems...where did I say Pakistan will join the war? But help can be in a lot of ways... CPEC will always be there as an alternate route for China in case of war in SCS and also Pakistan will keep Hindia at bay because if India tries to join USA, it will be a great opportunity for Pakistan to liberate oppressed regions and resume the Musilm rule over India again.

 

[James-bond]

Xinjiang,Taiwan and Tibet will get full independence and 'Democratic republic of China' will be formed.

 

[YeBeWarned]

What if the come to an agreement and work together?

Its hypothetical scenario , so we can safely say they might be going to full scale war

 

[ChineseTiger1986]

I dont think any other country will be that foolish to join the war of super powers and suffer the destruction.

You are right, China is ready to prepare the incoming battle alone.

All those DF-5C and DF-41A are now armed with the hypersonic nuclear warheads. And other countries including Russia will just stay aside and watch the spectacular clash between the two titans.

 

[KAL-EL]

Althought I said I am going to need to focus on my school works (my final semester on my MPhil started 2 weeks ago) I am going to make an exception and comment on this post. I hope we can keep this civilize and to the point only to Strategic nature.

To begin with, let me point out a few assumption the video make that is generally not correct.

1.) In the video, it mentioned China will strike US bases in Japan while keeping Japan on the sideline (staying neutral), I don't see this coming, China would still be attacking Japan (albeit they are US bases) and Japan will engage with China if they are to attack US bases in Japan, and the Chinese will not simply attack US Bases in Japan, they will also attack Japanese own bases in Japan, due to the fog of war.

Likewise US Bases in South Korea, Singapore, Indian Oceans (which will bring UK to war), Afghanistan will be involve in such a war, and either China will have to leave all these bases alone or have to drag the above mentioned country for war.

I don't see China have enough soft power to pull an Israel during the First Iraq war, not to those nation anyway.

Once these country are at war with China (China have to attack those country otherwise those country will be make a safehaven to the US), the bases will increase multiple fold.

2.) The video assume the US will attack Chinese Military Power first, then industrial, then economical. From 1990 till now, all the pattern of US engagement suggest Industrial Power first, Economical second, then Military Target last.

3.) The video assume US will initiate the offensive and suffer major lost (it would) even if the back up fleet and materiel have not been arriving to support the war effort. The US will actually play defensively (as in the first part of Korean War) and US will play a delaying action until all accessible materiel in place, then the US will launch their offensive.

4.) If the video assume nuclear power will not be use, then China will also not be able to use DF-series misile (namely DF-21 and DF-26) as thsoe are nuclear capable missile. You cannot launch a nuclear capable missile without expecting a nuclear response

5.) The video did not mention US forces in Hawai'i and Alaska. Both are far shorter distant than US east and west coast to China.

6.) The video ignore the combat drone, logistic and supporting element (Such as EW, Intel, Cyberwarfare) for both Chinese and US military.

The assumption the video made I agree with.

1.) US will suffer a larger lost at the begining of the campaign, once all the materiel inplace, China will suffer more lost to the US.

2.) China would launch Airstrike against US bases in the Pacific, and the assumption that since China does not have a estabished logistic fleet, these flight will be graduately intercepted and destory due to lack of support.

3.) Without a land route (either from afghanistan or vietnam) US will not launch ground attack into China.

4.) the video assume PLAN have to stash their ship or risk losing them all is correct.

5.) China will forego Naval Defence and favor Land base defence.

6.) War of attrition will favor the US simply because US have more equipment than China.

Now, onto my comment.

Make no mistake, if a war between US and China were to happen now, the US will most definitely win this war. In fact, if there are any US/China war in the near future (near mean within 50 years from now), US wll still win the war, but the level of damage done to the US military will increase over time.

US will not attack at all unless they can secure a willing coalition for it, namely EU, Asian allies.

The only way China can possibly win is to take the initiative and engage and destory US and Allies asset in the begining of the war. However, this is most probably easy to say than done, even if China can eliminate the US/Allies threat completely (namely invade and take over Japan, South Korea, Singapore, Australia and other US bases in the Pacific) and thus denied US reinforcement to have access to these area. Chinese force would and should be combat ineffective and possibly drained and stretch their military too far and it would have been a easy prey for the US/Allies Reinforcement.

No doubt the US will fight a delay action on South Korea, Japan, US bases in the Area and wait for the rest of the US Navy and US Air Force power to be able to brought to bear.

The US will then uses Pearl Harbour and Hawaii as a stepping stone and support the war effort from there, local support can also be garnered from country such as Australia, Singapore and Indonesia.

Chinese have too little asset to denied the whole Pacific Ocean for the US military, not without majority of the surrounding country support (Namely, Vietnam, Thailand, the Philippines, North Korea, Malaysia and Indonesia), all of these country have to support the Chinese military in order to close off that part of the Pacific to the American, however, US have 10 CBG and 11 Assault Group with a LHD/LHA each, and the US Navy probably have more Naval power than all these countries, plus China, combine. Even if China can drag Vietnam, Thailand, Philippines, North Korea, Malaysia and Indonesia to its side, US Navy still be able to provide sea control to that part of the Pacific. Again, the nly difference is how much US would suffer before dominating the Eastern Pacific.

Pakistan will remain neutral otherwise risk India being drag into the war on US side.

The key of USAF and PLAAF show down is between Chinese sorties and US equipment making up these sorties, the numbe of sorties will largely depends on how much US can damage China air power in the begining stage of the action and Chinese effectiveness on striking US and Allies Air Force facilities.



Missile defence alone cannot stop US combine Naval and Air Power, the problem is that missile defence only works if these ADS site are protected, but since US Navy alone is about 10 times stronge (Probably more) than PLAN, PLAN would have to comtemplate between stay and fight and being anninhilated in East China Sea (or Japan Sea) or have to bug out Somewhere and seek safe haven. And when that time come, the Chinese coast is then unguarded, and the US Navy can swim ashore and bombard the ADS site at will, it will resulting in thsee site moving generally inland. thus cannot protect the coastal structure, and unless US decided to invade China (Which would never happen unless a ground route is secured) These Air Defence site will be useless against US Air Force and Navy as they have to be positioned quite far inland to protect themselves from US Navy shore strike.

Also, the US have a very good EW and Intelligence Package, ADS remained in USAF coastal AO would be subject to Ironhand mission from a combine fleet of US Navy EG-18 and F-16CJ

Overall, the video would depict a similar outcome had a war between China and US to be fought today. But the video assumtion make the prediction more deadly to the US Military,and if there is a war between US and China, it will not be US and China alone. Local and International Participant will be a part of it, and at this stage, US have more friends than China in the regions.

It's in depth thought out posts like yours that I appreciate on this forum.

Not necessarily because I may or may not agree with everything you say every time, but because posters like you take the time to think things out rationally, and not just respond with emotional hyper nationalist keyboard warrior fantasy like some do.

 

[Indika]

I think you are suffering with comprehension problems...where did I say Pakistan will join the war? But help can be in a lot of ways... CPEC will always be there as an alternate route for China in case of war in SCS and also Pakistan will keep Hindia at bay because if India tries to join USA, it will be a great opportunity for Pakistan to liberate oppressed regions and resume the Musilm rule over India again.

where did i quote pakistan ? well if you think pakistan is foolish there is nothing much I can do about it.
muslim rule? go join your ISIS brethren they also have the same goal.

 

[omega supremme]

Pakistan will remain neutral otherwise risk India being drag into the war on US side.

Your statement is true in this matter but any support Pakistan will be doing is either talking to other nations to bring cease to the war and will be helping economically as much as Pakistan can do but will not be too much as China will be in good conditions ,

Pakistan to get involved in the war will have two reasons,

1. India attacking China in which case Pakistan will be forced to be fully involved in the war.
2. India taking the chance that maybe China will not do any incursion due to war with USA and attack Pakistan.

Both these points are applicable if India attacks in the beginning of war or in between the war and in both cases india will be fighting a two frontal war not in it's favour. Other than that there are just very minor chances India will ever get involved as it has always been very less influenced by others when the matter is about it's very existance and thus Pakistan will also remain neutral.

 

[jhungary]

US may get support from Japan and India militarily...no other nation will be ready to take on China along with USA...
While Russia and Pakistan will help China. However China has the ability to take the war to mainland USA in case USA attacks mainland China... so that's a big deterrent. Though nukes have not been modelled but any escalation of this scale cannot rule out the use of nukes, though USA has much bigger stockpile and good ABMs but it cannot deny all Chinese MIRVed DF-41s to hit their targets and that is enough to cause panic in USA and US people have traditionally been not used to wars and such attacks on their land thanks to their isolated continent and subservient neighbours like Canada..but overall USA has better disaster management orgs like FEMA etc but I think Chinese as a nation are more disciplined and used to following the commands which will come pretty handy in dealing with disaster and aftermath of nuclear strike of 3 Gorges dam while Americans are anarchists under stress and gun culture is common and there will be gun fights on the streets and all types of racial and hate crimes will ensue leading to an exponential growth of chaos, furthermore USA has fledgling economy that stands on debt and China owns a lot of it ...
China has much larger industrial base despite being low tech but in a longer conflict quantity matters more...

That's just from the top of my head..
I just get to work
Wish for a peaceful world..

Russia will not help China (not in militarily way anyway) Russian is a very calculating bunch, if they have a choice to either sit and watch world number 2 (China) and world number 1 (USA) fighting each other, would you think they will go and help the Chinese to fight the American? or would you think they will simply sit and wait for world number 1 and 2 destroy each other?

China means nothing to Russia in diplomatic term, the only reason why Russia currently stick to China is because it serve their purpose, not becuase they want to serve Chinese purpose

Also, bringing Russia in this equation will also bring EU and NATO in, which will most certainly ends up in a world war.

Also, please comment on conventional way, because if you start talking about nuke, then it wil lsimply render this whole discussion pointless, as US also have nuke too, and it will end with mutual destruction.

Pakistan cannot help China. The best it can do is provide intel and logistic support, that too being secretly. If Pakistan would get involved it would drag India into the war, likewise; If India gets involved - it would drag Pakistan into the war.

This is quite true, as I said in my assessment, China will ask Pakistan to stay put otherwise it will ends up with India fighting on the side of the US. On the other hand, if India fought China (either as a belligerent itself or as a US Allies, that would drag Pakistan to war in China side.)

Also, Russia involvement both covertly or overtly would also contribute to India being a part of this war.

First of All thank you for replying here despite been busy .. and best of luck for your P.hil Finals mostly i agree with you and even where i don't i just need to ask few questions, but your analysis is very neutral .

No Problem, well, I am currently studying MPhil (bot PhD yet) in Strategic Studies, answering these question help me think about my thesis I have to write....also, it's a good change of the study material I have to go through on a day to day basis.

As long as it remain neutral and constructive, I will be a part of this discussion.

Also, what kind of question you have in mind? I will try to answer it with my limited knowledge.

It's in depth thought out posts like yours that I appreciate on this forum.

Not necessarily because I may or may not agree with everything you say every time, but because posters like you take the time to think things out rationally, and not just respond with emotional hyper nationalist keyboard warrior fantasy like some do.

Well, I don't generally blow my trumpet on any countries, I see thing the way I see thing, coming from a military background. I know first hand what you WILL get when you are being too patriotic. In my position (I was an officer in the Army) I cannot be clouding my judgement with anything else other than the true situation represented. We are not Nazi Germany fighting in WW2, where it's all A-OK as long as the Furher are okay with it. In the US military, junior officer are encourage to think and carry out their own battle, they were embraced with some degree of "free-hand" to carry out their order, to do this, I must always stay neutral and only judge a case on its merit and circumstances.

People who are nationalist usually don't know anything, be it here in this forum and in real world, just ignore these people and you should be alright.

But then, depending on where you stand, some people think I am biased to hell.....so........

Your statement is true in this matter but any support Pakistan will be doing is either talking to other nations to bring cease to the war and will be helping economically as much as Pakistan can do but will not be too much as China will be in good conditions ,

Pakistan to get involved in the war will have two reasons,

1. India attacking China in which case Pakistan will be forced to be fully involved in the war.
2. India taking the chance that maybe China will not do any incursion due to war with USA and attack Pakistan.

Both these points are applicable if India attacks in the beginning of war or in between the war and in both cases india will be fighting a two frontal war not in it's favour. Other than that there are just very minor chances India will ever get involved as it has always been very less influenced by others when the matter is about it's very existance and thus Pakistan will also remain neutral.

I don't see how both Pakistan and India be involve in US and China war in Eastern Asia.

For Pakistan, it have serve both Chinese and US purpose to stay neutral, I can see some degree favoring China over US like what Sweden done to Germany during WW2, but other than that, not much would Pakistan provide to China that can help with or maintain the war effort for China, Pakistan is too far to the west to help and too small to provide any logistic assistance, it's probably like Mexico to with the US, would Mexico involve in the War between US and China on US side? What can they bring to the table that US does not already have?

The only way I can see Pakistan involving in the war between China and US is to denied the US to use its land to transfer arms from Afghanistan to the East and the US have to do a long way down instead of right across. Other than that, I don't see anything Pakistan did could help China in any way or form.

India on the other hand, is a Russian allies, despite all the hype here, US does not ever see India as an allies (Not in the same degree Russia see India anyway). India will remain neutral unless they were being attack by the Chinese, which I don't think the Chinese would.

Land route wise, India bridge China over the Himalayas, which is highly UNFAVORABLE terrain, the best land route is via Vietnam, then North Korea, then Russia and then thru Pakistan, and finally India. If I were US command, I would proabbly favor a full scale attack to North Korea then try to invade China via Himalayas.

India have nothing to gain to be a US base in the area, nor would it serve India foreign policy on this matter.

 

[BRITISH]

stupid video

 

[omega supremme]

For Pakistan, it have serve both Chinese and US purpose to stay neutral, I can see some degree favoring China over US like what Sweden done to Germany during WW2, but other than that, not much would Pakistan provide to China that can help with or maintain the war effort for China, Pakistan is too far to the west to help and too small to provide any logistic assistance, it's probably like Mexico to with the US, would Mexico involve in the War between US and China on US side? What can they bring to the table that US does not already have?

Realistically Speaking China would never want Pakistan to get involved in the war militarically because in case of war the first thing to do is to cut down the other sides trade with the other's and do as much as one can to stop economy of the other so China in case of war would want the CPEC running. Pakistan only fighting will be through dialogues in which America will keep threating to deny the trade route to Chinese which Pakistan will keep open to the Chinese, other than that you are right Pakistan won't allow movement of American supplies to Afghanistan but it is not a very big contribution from Pakistan to Chinese in case of war.

Note: As soon as the war starts and if it is of such an intesity as mentioned by the OP, China would surely take out the american bases in afghanistan through it's air and then few missles as it will not like to get poke from behind as it will be mainly concentrated towards America on it's sea side.

The only way I can see Pakistan involving in the war between China and US is to denied the US to use its land to transfer arms from Afghanistan to the East and the US have to do a long way down instead of right across. Other than that, I don't see anything Pakistan did could help China in any way or form.

To your Afghanistan point I have given the answer in the previous paragraph.

Pakistan will not effect America much in this war this much is clear but to get Pakistan involved militarily the two points I have given shall be the basis. The mechanism for these two points to become active will be

-- India attacking China in which case Pakistan will be forced to be fully involved in the war:

This point can happen if America's influence is strong or very effective in India which in present time I don't see happening and india will never start a war just for Americas stake.

India taking the chance that maybe China will not do any incursion due to war with USA and attack Pakistan:

This can be a possibility during the mid of war when China would have lost some good numbers and fully engaged with America. India may take the risk to start a war with Pakistan and weaken it as much as it can so Pakistan may not pose much threat in future to India but I believe if not by itself China will give whatever military equipment it can to Pakistan as requested and it shall be mainly aircraft's which Pakistan may request during the war from China

India on the other hand, is a Russian allies, despite all the hype here, US does not ever see India as an allies (Not in the same degree Russia see India anyway). India will remain neutral unless they were being attack by the Chinese, which I don't think the Chinese would.

Russia may sell military equipment to india in case of war but this point will not be very effective after few years as Russia will be more reliant on China to grow economically. Russia at the moment wants to regain the same position as it once did during Cold era and for that it needs to become economically strong and China is a good way to make it become economically stable so it will help China if not openly than overtly

Land route wise, India bridge China over the Himalayas, which is highly UNFAVORABLE terrain, the best land route is via Vietnam, then North Korea, then Russia and then thru Pakistan, and finally India. If I were US command, I would proabbly favor a full scale attack to North Korea then try to invade China via Himalayas.

The land war is not much in favour of America. America will be using war of attrition against China through it's sea and air power which is much more favourable and causing less casualties. The land invasion of China even in a hypothetical sense is not much of a possibility and even if happened China will take the war to a whole knew level, which will be a very bloody one so even if any foothold America makes shall be thwarted back by China. But by your land route invasion possible for America.

--- Vietnam will not allow America the route to invade as it will bring the full might of Chinese air power on them hence daily air bombings on Vietnam and to some extent naval attacks and ground incursion inside Vietnam.

--- Russia will never provide any ground route to the Americans even in a hypothetical sense.

--- Pakistan and India both will not provide any land route as the former being an ally of China will act more neutral if not involved in the war and the later cannot sustain the militarical and economical damage done by the war by providing a land route to America.

--- Lastly remains the North Korea the only possible route for America to invade but it will be like grinding there own troops and by attacking North Korea, America will be forced to keep fighting over there and China will keep supplying any military support it can to North Korea so even if the war stops America would never have broken through the North Korean defences into China, a failed invasion it shall be and all the strikes and bombardment done by the Americans will be like throwing away the money.

India have nothing to gain to be a US base in the area, nor would it serve India foreign policy on this matter.

To speak the truth America will never gain much from Indians, any investment that americans are doing in india the most they will be able gain in return would be few spying stations. To think india would fight for America is very foolish.

 

[schoolboy]

Althought I said I am going to need to focus on my school works (my final semester on my MPhil started 2 weeks ago) I am going to make an exception and comment on this post. I hope we can keep this civilize and to the point only to Strategic nature.

I enjoyed reading your analysis, and agree with all of it. Points that come to my mind are:

- global economy is largely dictated by the US and western countries. Being cut off from that would very quickly affect any belligerent

- All assets (except gold and physical currency) are held in western banks. The banking system is controlled by the west.

- the US controls the oil trade. Without oil no war will last a day. In addition the US has significant domestic reserves of oil that China does not have

- The US economy is significantly more prosperous than China (at least in the near future). Their large debt is meaningless because it is denominated in USD and the Fed can simply print money if necessary - a luxury no other country has.

- The US has a significant technological lead (again, for the near future at least). They have the best academia in the world working for them - and their education system makes use of talent from other countries to do R&D that helps constantly modernize and improve offensive/defensive capability

- The US military also has significant warfighting experience - a critical factor overlooked and not reflected in simple troop strength comparisons. Acquiring a stealth fighter is one thing, making one at home is another - but knowing which of its attributes work in combat and which do not is something nobody who has not been in combat can know

 

[fitpOsitive]

I came across this Video with the same title as the OP here , i find it somewhat Interesting though i do feel that the Presenter has undermine Chinese Missiles and Defense Systems against the US navy and Air force but overall a Good comparison of Force , Battle , and outcome ..
What do you guys think is it accurate ? if yes than why you think it is ? and if its not accurate than what are your reasons ..
Please don't bring Irrelevant Countries here and keep the thread on Topic .

@Chinese-Dragon @Beast @Deino @Oscar @Khafee @Penguin @Basel @war&peace @Bratva @The Deterrent @The Eagle @MastanKhan @Rashid Mahmood @jhungary @gambit @Desertfalcon @DESERT FIGHTER @MilSpec @hellfire@waz @TaimiKhan @WAJsal @Zaki @Blue Marlin @Syed.Ali.Haider

A video from a Japanese on US-China war?
Btw the war is very highly unlikely.

 

[YeBeWarned]

No Problem, well, I am currently studying MPhil (bot PhD yet) in Strategic Studies, answering these question help me think about my thesis I have to write....also, it's a good change of the study material I have to go through on a day to day basis.

As long as it remain neutral and constructive, I will be a part of this discussion.

Also, what kind of question you have in mind? I will try to answer it with my limited knowledge.

I find that video somewhat neutral that is why i posted it .. Honestly I do believe China will put up a good Fight but they are not yet there to defeat an all out invasion of US with all its assets in involved , US is still ahead of China and they catching up fast enough ..

my questions are as follow ..
1- In the Video the presenter has not much shed light on Chinese Submarine Fleet which is good both in Quality and quantity , so besides the Pi8 Anti-Sub Air craft what other option USN will have to tackle the huge Fleet of PLAAN ? a combination of these Subs and their DDG's there will be quite a lot of Anti-Ship Missiles firing towards USN fleet .

2- Do you think that Japan will enter the war with its Air force and Navy cause US will be using Japanese Bases as you mentioned and if they did, won't it bring Russia into that War ? along with other Chinese Allies ( not Talking about Pakistan )

3- How many Carrier battle groups you think USN will pitch against the collective PLAAN ? will they be close enough for Chinese to concentrate their Attack on certain epicenter , or USN carrier groups will be scattered across the Indian Ocean and South China Seas ? which will be best option ?

4- Do you think that US will even if have Air superiority will Invade the main Chinese land with Ground forces ? Chinese have 2.2 Million roughly Standing Army and even if they front 1 Million it will be really bad for US ground units even with complete or Partially Air cover, Cause i think Chinese will use their Man-Pads and Portable SAMS FM-90 to prevent their Forwarding force getting pinned down by USAF , so how do you think US marines will counter the Numerical Advantage keeping the points in mind i mentioned ..

5- Last, as a Neutral Person what do you think China should do in case of War which lasts months to prevent a full on defeat ? and stretching the Time of war, will it help US or China more Relatively ?

Thanks and Apologize in Advance if some questions sounds silly I am trying to learn it like a layman ..

A video from a Japanese on US-China war?
Btw the war is very highly unlikely.

does not matter who make the Video, see the content and if the analysis is neutral enough to have Good Discussion than its enough for a debate .

 

[B2B]

What if China and US went on a Full scale war ?

On this hypothetical scenario : Pakistan will fight China to the last man for the US. (Reference : Recent white house statements)
https://defence.pk/threads/pakistan-is-cooperating-white-house.476115

 

[YeBeWarned]

What if China and US went on a Full scale war ?

On this hypothetical scenario : Pakistan will fight China to the last man for the US. (Reference : Recent white house statements)
https://defence.pk/threads/pakistan-is-cooperating-white-house.476115

Don't bring Pakistan into this , your post is reported one more post like that and you will get banned from the thread .