Iran's defense industry can produce all types of weapons. Iran produces armor, helicopters, drones, air defenses, artillery, ballistic and cruise missiles, trainer aircrafts, ships.
Over the next 2-5 years Iranian defense industry might unveil new equipment: Kowsar-88 trainer, Besat submarine, Khalij fars destroyer, Shahed-216 heavy attack helicopter, Ghaem SLV, maybe some new APC or IFV.
Over the next 5 years, Iranian defense industry will mature and will be able to produce any type of military equipment.
However, there is one thing Iran will not be able to produce for many years- truly advanced fighter aircraft.
If you look at Qaher-313 it looks like a hybrid of ground effect vehicle and a light fighter. It can't match 4th generation fighters in speed or other parameters.
In my opinion it is designed to be a stealth platform that flies low over the Persian Gulf at subsonic speed (like a ground effect vehicle) and launches anti-ship missiles at oil tankers in the Gulf or US navy vessels. At the same time it can fight American helicopters and drones with air-to-air missiles.
In my opinion, designing a weapon that can threaten oil traffic in the Persian Gulf and US navy, at the same time a weapon that can protect Iranian speedboats from US Navy helicopters in the Straight of Hormuz is more important that trying to design a fighter that will not be able to compete with American F-22 or Saudi F-15.
At the same time designing Qaher will help to develop Iranian aerospace industry and provide experience for Iranian engineers.
But Qaher-313, when it will fly, will not be comparable to Israeli or Turkish F-35s or American F-22s. Qaher has weak engine, radar, avionics- it is probably designed for a role in the waters of the Persian Gulf.
It is a long way for Qaher-313 to become a truly 5th generation fighter.
Iran has engineers experienced in radars, airframe, avionics. So over time Iran has a base for developing a truly advanced fighter with advanced radar, avionics, stealth airframe, but it will take time-decades.
After Qaher-313 as a subsonic light fighter-ground effect vehicle will fly. It might take 15 years for industry preparation, research and development and in 2035 Iran might unveil its first 5th generation fighter- 15 years from now- enough time to turn F-313 into a truly 5th generation fighter. Then it will take additional 5 years for testing.
(It took a decade for the Russians to design T-50 and it took many years to test. Making a fighter takes a decade or longer.)
So 15 years for developing and 5 years for testing= 20 years from now. Somewhere in 2040 Iranian 5th generation fighter, (comparable to Chinese J-31) will be ready for mass production.
BUT
Since it will take a long time for Iran to develop its own 5th generation fighter, the question is what aircraft IRIAF will have before 2040?
While Kowsar (improved F-5) can serve as a good trainer (like how Americans use T-38) it can't be a basic fighter for IRIAF, because Israel and Turkey will purchase over 100 F-35s.
What aircraft should Iran buy, after sanctions banning purchase of weapons will be lifted in 2020? Iran can't fly F-4 and F-5 until 2040.
Mig-29, Mig-35, Su-27, even Su-30 can not be an option for IRIAF, since these 4th generation fighters will become obsolete in 5-10 years as F-35 enters mass production and regional countries like Israel and Turkey buy F-35s.
4th generation fighters have no future and if Iran buys aircraft they will have to be in service until 2050.
So there are few options for Iran: Su-35 or T-50 or J-31.
I think Iran needs to buy 50 Su-35 in the period 2020-2025 and 100 J-31 in the period 2025-2032.
Your comments and opinions....What is the future of IRIAF? Since today F-4 and F-5 are aircrafts for museums....what aircraft Iran should buy and in what quantity?
Over the next 2-5 years Iranian defense industry might unveil new equipment: Kowsar-88 trainer, Besat submarine, Khalij fars destroyer, Shahed-216 heavy attack helicopter, Ghaem SLV, maybe some new APC or IFV.
Over the next 5 years, Iranian defense industry will mature and will be able to produce any type of military equipment.
However, there is one thing Iran will not be able to produce for many years- truly advanced fighter aircraft.
If you look at Qaher-313 it looks like a hybrid of ground effect vehicle and a light fighter. It can't match 4th generation fighters in speed or other parameters.
In my opinion it is designed to be a stealth platform that flies low over the Persian Gulf at subsonic speed (like a ground effect vehicle) and launches anti-ship missiles at oil tankers in the Gulf or US navy vessels. At the same time it can fight American helicopters and drones with air-to-air missiles.
In my opinion, designing a weapon that can threaten oil traffic in the Persian Gulf and US navy, at the same time a weapon that can protect Iranian speedboats from US Navy helicopters in the Straight of Hormuz is more important that trying to design a fighter that will not be able to compete with American F-22 or Saudi F-15.
At the same time designing Qaher will help to develop Iranian aerospace industry and provide experience for Iranian engineers.
But Qaher-313, when it will fly, will not be comparable to Israeli or Turkish F-35s or American F-22s. Qaher has weak engine, radar, avionics- it is probably designed for a role in the waters of the Persian Gulf.
It is a long way for Qaher-313 to become a truly 5th generation fighter.
Iran has engineers experienced in radars, airframe, avionics. So over time Iran has a base for developing a truly advanced fighter with advanced radar, avionics, stealth airframe, but it will take time-decades.
After Qaher-313 as a subsonic light fighter-ground effect vehicle will fly. It might take 15 years for industry preparation, research and development and in 2035 Iran might unveil its first 5th generation fighter- 15 years from now- enough time to turn F-313 into a truly 5th generation fighter. Then it will take additional 5 years for testing.
(It took a decade for the Russians to design T-50 and it took many years to test. Making a fighter takes a decade or longer.)
So 15 years for developing and 5 years for testing= 20 years from now. Somewhere in 2040 Iranian 5th generation fighter, (comparable to Chinese J-31) will be ready for mass production.
BUT
Since it will take a long time for Iran to develop its own 5th generation fighter, the question is what aircraft IRIAF will have before 2040?
While Kowsar (improved F-5) can serve as a good trainer (like how Americans use T-38) it can't be a basic fighter for IRIAF, because Israel and Turkey will purchase over 100 F-35s.
What aircraft should Iran buy, after sanctions banning purchase of weapons will be lifted in 2020? Iran can't fly F-4 and F-5 until 2040.
Mig-29, Mig-35, Su-27, even Su-30 can not be an option for IRIAF, since these 4th generation fighters will become obsolete in 5-10 years as F-35 enters mass production and regional countries like Israel and Turkey buy F-35s.
4th generation fighters have no future and if Iran buys aircraft they will have to be in service until 2050.
So there are few options for Iran: Su-35 or T-50 or J-31.
I think Iran needs to buy 50 Su-35 in the period 2020-2025 and 100 J-31 in the period 2025-2032.
Your comments and opinions....What is the future of IRIAF? Since today F-4 and F-5 are aircrafts for museums....what aircraft Iran should buy and in what quantity?
Last edited:
