"We will wait 100 years...."

[LeveragedBuyout]

"I do not believe Xi is stupid, but I also don't see how this benefits China other than to satisfy some amorphous desire for prestige and pride."

All are your excuses. During WWII, Hawaii was not American territory legally, you just have military base there. America and Japan had 50/50 chance to own Hawaii. For the ilands disputes, you would cruelly nuke Japan....For all the reason, China has to suppress our neighbors which desiere Chinese territory.

If you don't know, say you don't know. Don't fabricate some fantasy just to bolster your argument, it makes you lose credibility.

Newlands Resolution - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

In a sum, it's Chinese territory since morden era, we will not give up; its not Chinese territory, we won't desire it.

Please define "Chinese territory" and "modern era," so we can have a common basis for discussion.

 

[Edison Chen]

That said, can you please articulate what it is about the liberal Western order (under which China enjoyed unprecedented prosperity) that is so troublesome to China that it would put it all at risk? We have had many threads over the last year speculating about "What Does China Want?" but never seemed to reach a satisfactory consensus. It appears, from the American point of view, that the "Chinese Dream" is essentially a race for prestige (economically, militarily, diplomatically), but the trigger points that would satisfy China (domination of the SCS? domination of Asia? replacing the US as the sole superpower?) are still unknown.

China is doing many things similar to the things that have been done by the US or the Western. Many efforts and attempt by Chinese leadership to achieve the economy and society modernization are actually similar to the US or other developed countries or regions. But the leadership is always strengthening the construction of ideology, like Deng's theory, Three Representatives (Although Mao's thought is rarely seen in Chinese government proclamation or mainstream media since some time ago I couldn't recall). On one hand, China wants to control an independence position of thoughts or theories, but on the other hand, the US economy theories, market mechanism, corporate rules, and many other things are really really superior, China has to learn. So apparently China is a communist country advocating communism, but in reality many of China's policy toward economy modernization or market mechanism is getting close to the western standard.

To China, western technology, good economy theories are tools, China borrows them and rebuilds them, to make them suitable to China's situation. Even in late Qing Dynasty (Starting at 1860, the beginning of Self-Strengthening Movement by Qing government), the government was only importing western technology, and at the same time keeping western values out of China's door. Look, this is not CPC's patents.

China has an independent spirit, which means not to be dominated or controlled by other external forces, this is exactly the reason why Chinese culture gets inherited during the long long history and why China was never a colony like India, although China was once broke apart, got conquered by the Mongol Empire, and got invaded by the Western. Chinese culture has a strong ability of self rehabilitation after the wound.

 

[Genesis]

Normally, I would agree with you on this point, but China has shown itself to be an exceptional student of history. It was able to replicate the Japanese/Asian Tiger model on a massive scale, and achieve an unprecedented run of economic growth. Similarly, looking at how Japan's rise caused frictions with the US into the 1980s, I cannot accept that developments such as the following are coincidence:

Chinese investment boosts U.S. economy: report
- Xinhua | English.news.cn

The report, New Neighbors, co-released by the National Committee on U.S.-China Relations and the Rhodium Group consultancy, said that from 2000 to 2014, Chinese firms have spent nearly 46 billion U.S. dollars on new establishments and acquisitions in the United States, most of them over the past five years.
(...)
Chinese-affiliated businesses now directly employ more than 80,000 Americans, said Daniel Rosen, partner of the Rhodium Group.

This long payroll was compared to less than 15,000 people five years ago, while excluding indirect employment, or an addition of tens of thousands of jobs.

Again, China studied Japan's strategy of countering American dissatisfaction with the trade imbalance by investing in the US and employing Americans.

The CCP leadership is clever, and has been advancing China's aims rather proficiently for the last few decades. I hope I don't need to bring up the actual precedents, but the island reclamation project is a departure from the previous model (as my Chinese friends here point out, concerning Deng Xiaoping's dictum to keep a low profile), and seems to be entering the "our place in the sun" mode that has proven disastrous for more than one nation in the past. Perhaps "this time will be different," but aren't those often famous last words?

To me investing in America is a matter of low trust in Chinese markets, and an excess of funding with no where to put it. Even if Chinese market can prove it self, it would take time and even then it's never a good idea to put all eggs in one basket.

China is not Japan, Japan was in the liberal order, while Americans can eventually accept Japan, it won't accept China without accepting our system works. I have been on record that whether democracy works or not in China is not as relevant as in today's cut throat world, democracy would stagnate China, at least in the short to medium term, but we can't afford any slow down in any term, nobody can really, in today's social media world.

That, and Japan was never in serious contention to beat America, with less land than an American state, and less than half its population, Japan would truly have to be exceptional to even come close.

Now onto your last part, models change, the world is not the same as 30 years ago, as you pointed out. If not, why would we react the same as the Strait Crisis in 96, the ship "hijacking" in 93 or the embassy bombing in 99, or the sanctions in 89.

Regarding time in the sun, never is a good time for America, but not so much for us. Would you feel better if we did it when we are the biggest economy? Rather than now?

The difference between Germany as well as Japan, and China is Germany faced equal opponents to itself more or less, and Japan is in a race against time to take advantage of the situation.

China has time on our side, the longer this takes the stronger we get. It doesn't really matter if the US gets stronger or not, because we will move just that much faster.

And this is how I can remain optimistic, despite the nationalistic mud-slinging we often observe here. Who would have imagined 30 years ago that China would become the peer competitor of the US? 30 years before that, the US fought a war against a Soviet proxy, allied with China. 10 years before that, the US fought a world war triggered by its attempt to protect its friend, the Republic of China.

Similarly, what will the world look like 30 years from now? Rivalry or war are not inevitable, they are just two outcomes among many. We may find that the world is a radically different place, with the US and China sitting on the same side once again. It's important not to burn bridges, to ensure that such a possibility remains viable. War would close that door, but trade keeps it open.

The South China Sea is a game of dominoes, as soon as we get one claimant to cave, the rest will fall, no one wants to be the last one standing against China, never a good idea, even for the US, much less the rest. After that, the US claim of anything, freedom of navigation or other wise will be proven to be a false threat and in terms of military terms, if no one else sees Chinese presence as a threat any more, and there is much upside(as I previously stated) America would lose legitimacy fast in the region.

China and US can work together, as demonstrated by US Russian working relationship. What this relationship has taught us is if the US can accept you as an equal, we may not be allies, but we can work together on a lot of things.
We can see some of it now between China and the US, Africa, Middle East, Central Asia, environment, global economy(currency value) and more.

However, never become weak, as this relationship has also demonstrated, if America can bully you at will, they will, without a second thought. Though we got plenty of experience in that.

 

[Place Of Space]

If you don't know, say you don't know. Don't fabricate some fantasy just to bolster your argument, it makes you lose credibility.

Newlands Resolution - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia



Please define "Chinese territory" and "modern era," so we can have a common basis for discussion.

The resolution was American internal thing. Japan could annex Korea kingdom, Ryukyu kingdom, they of course could consider Hawaii kingdom their's.

I don't have definition of modern era. I could explain to you this way, Mongolia got independence from China in 1945, we admitted its independence and sign bilateral border treaty with them, we won't claim it. China has ascertained and signed border treaty with most neighbors on land.I call this modern era...In ancient era, it's meaningless to ascertain border with the north nomad. The grassland changed owners too often, sometimes Huns, sometimes Turkic, sometimes Khitan, sometimes Mongol, and nomad always move on the grassland, desert. In stable agriculture area, a river or a mountain was the natural border, or in some situation, there were a buffer area between two nations' guarding "gate". There were not clear mere stone, two nation's people could live and go to and fro the buffer area freely. If go through the gate, they need official permission.
Check the following foto of a gate, between China and Vietnam, this gate was built in 1360's, near border.

 

[LeveragedBuyout]

The resolution was American internal thing. Japan could annex Korea kingdom, Ryukyu kingdom, they of course could consider Hawaii kingdom their's.

I am certain that you aren't serious about this standard (e.g. formal legal acknowledgement by the local sovereign polity of annexation), because there are multiple areas that are part of the PRC which would fail that test. So please drop the example of Hawaii, since it drags us into an argument of double standards.

I don't have definition of modern era.

I understand, it's hard to draw a red line through history and declare that everything before was amorphous, and everything afterwards is defined. But it's precisely that ambiguity which breeds mistrust in China's neighbors. Until they know what China wants, they don't even have a basis for negotiation. What is China claiming, based on what? China won't even define the 9-dash line. Is it any wonder that China's neighbors are terrified by the possibility that China's ambitions are limitless?

 

[Aepsilons]

I am certain that you aren't serious about this standard (e.g. formal legal acknowledgement by the local sovereign polity of annexation), because there are multiple areas that are part of the PRC which would fail that test. So please drop the example of Hawaii, since it drags us into an argument of double standards.



I understand, it's hard to draw a red line through history and declare that everything before was amorphous, and everything afterwards is defined. But it's precisely that ambiguity which breeds mistrust in China's neighbors. Until they know what China wants, they don't even have a basis for negotiation. What is China claiming, based on what? China won't even define the 9-dash line. Is it any wonder that China's neighbors are terrified by the possibility that China's ambitions are limitless?

If I may interject my opinion, Sir.

The US already had a strong presence in the islands by the 1870s through American sugar companies. By the 1890s, they were pushing the Hawaiian royalty around. Japan's ability to project any sort of power beyond East Asia before the 1890s was effectively nil. I don't know how Japan could have taken over Hawaii before the Americans (or possibly the British) could have gotten to them.

But if they had, I imagine Japan would have administered them much as they did Taiwan or Korea - treat them as inseparable parts of the nation, push Japanese as the main language, push full recognition of Shinto primacy, and move some Japanese citizens there to take control from the locals, using force when necessary. However, Hawaii really couldn't have done much for Japan. It would have made a nice naval base, yes, but Japan was looking for ways to expand its access to industrial goods, while Hawaii could have only provided a little more agricultural wealth.

Lastly, to reiterate, the United States had a stronger presence in Hawaii by the 1870s , which was a far more developed country than Japan was in the same epoch. It would be much later, at least by the late 1880s that Japan would have the necessary means to acquire foreign territories (as it was doing in the Western Pacific), but the time frame regarding Hawaii was towards the American favor. And I would like to state that tho there were considerable number of Japanese in Hawaii in the late 1800s, they were mostly laborers and there was little to no Japanese companies stationed in Hawaii as compared to the US.



Regards,

 

[TaiShang]

Technically, our largest trading partner is Canada, but the point is valid nevertheless. It's a good thing I know many good, thoughtful, pragmatic Chinese in real life. Otherwise, based on PDF, one might think that most Chinese think about toppling the liberal Western order 18 hours a day.

Let's reiterate: the most that can be achieved from war between the US and China is a Pyrrhic victory, whomever wins. I leave it to others to criticize US policy in Asia (and the critics are legion), but I marvel at Xi's apparent miscalculations in seeking short-term glory with these artificial islands, while sacrificing long-term security by sending China's neighbors into the arms of the US. I wonder what it is about Xi's background that makes him impatient for prestige, while his predecessors were patiently playing the long game. @Shotgunner51 Any insight? What made Xi take such a radical turn?

Let's say Obama's attempt to gather some last minute prestige before he is out of office caused all these troubles. Island reclamation has not started with China, obviously.

China's own program has been in the books for years and it has not started with President Xi, either. The sovereignty clause is right in the Constitution and hence won't be changed as governments change in China. The thing is that, China has just recently acquired the required technological and industrial capability to carry out peaceful island genesis activity. But China took some fresh strategic steps during earlier administrations, as well, e.g., Paracel Islands. In that regard, your cunning ridicule fails the test.

Besides, while Mr. Obama is quite vocal about the SCS developments, President. Xi barely bothers to respond. Talking about prestige, it is clearly seen who really needs and is in search of one: Those seeking prestige are the most talkative and often with little concrete result. But respect Mr. Obama's freedom of speech.

As liberal as Freedom Act, secret court and mass surveyance?

In his mind, probably yes. But the reality is, the real people who are obsessed are nested in the US government, which looks like a big mouth of fear mongering. China, on the other, barely responds, but simply ignores and goes with its own business.

China has an independent spirit, which means not to be dominated or controlled by other external forces, this is exactly the reason why Chinese culture gets inherited during the long long history and why China was never a colony like India, although China was once broke apart, got conquered by the Mongol Empire, and got invaded by the Western. Chinese culture has a strong ability of self rehabilitation after the wound.

That's actually what really bothers the dominant members of the West.

 

[Bussard Ramjet]

Let's say Obama's attempt to gather some last minute prestige before he is out of office caused all these troubles. Island reclamation has not started with China, obviously.

China's own program has been in the books for years and it has not started with President Xi. The sovereignty clause is right in the Constitution and hence won't be changed as governments change in China. The thing is that, China has just recently acquired the required technological and industrial capability to carry out peaceful island genesis activity.

Besides, while Mr. Obama is quite vocal about the SCS developments, President. Xi barely bothers to respond. Talking about prestige, it is clearly seen who really needs and is in search of one: Those seeking prestige are the most talkative and often with little concrete result.



In his mind, probably yes. But the reality is, the real people who are obsessed are nested in the US government, which looks like a big mouth of fear mongering. China, on the other, barely responds, but simply ignores and goes with its own business.



That's actually what really bothers the dominant members of the West.

Chinese culture itself has evolved over time. Qipao is one of the traditional Chinese dresses, which is essentially a Manchu dress. It absolutely takes foreign elements.

 

[Aepsilons]

Chinese culture itself has evolved over time. Qipao is one of the traditional Chinese dresses, which is essentially a Manchu dress. It absolutely takes foreign elements.

This is a bit off topic, but Qipao is not a Han attire. Its Manchu in origin. You want to see the beauty of Han attire? Look up Hanfu. That was the attire worn by the Emperors of Old, those who sat upon the Imperial Golden Throne....

 

[Bussard Ramjet]

This is a bit off topic, but Qipao is not a Han attire. Its Manchu in origin. You want to see the beauty of Han attire? Look up Hanfu. That was the attire worn by the Emperors of Old, those who sat upon the Imperial Golden Throne....

I said exactly that.

Today Qipao is considered a Chinese legacy, a traditional dress, but it is originally a Manchu dress.

It is because Chinese culture is inclusive and absorptive. When Qing was formed, Manchu were foreigners, but within a generation they were as much Chinese. Chinese culture imbibed Manchu.

You can consider it somewhat like the legend of Huaxia. Manchu were added to the list of tribes that were imbibed under the Han identity.

 

[Aepsilons]

I said exactly that.

Today Qipao is considered a Chinese legacy, a traditional dress, but it is originally a Manchu dress.

It is because Chinese culture is inclusive and absorptive. When Qing was formed, Manchu were foreigners, but within a generation they were as much Chinese. Chinese culture imbibed Manchu.

You can consider it somewhat like the legend of Huaxia. Manchu were added to the list of tribes that were imbibed under the Han identity.

Please don't lecture me about Chinese culture and Chinese attire, I am quite learned in all things Chinese.

Appreciate your understanding.

 

[Bussard Ramjet]

Please don't lecture me about Chinese culture and Chinese attire, I am quite learned in all things Chinese.

Appreciate your understanding.

Why suddenly so hostile? Also, it was you who misconstrued my remarks about Qipao. I was clarifying.

 

[Aepsilons]

Why suddenly so hostile? Also, it was you who misconstrued my remarks about Qipao. I was clarifying.

Its not hostility, Ramjet, just a simple request. I am fluent in Cantonese, and have been to China more than you can count, and can understand the language, studied its history, and politics. The last i need is to be schooled in basics.

 

[Bussard Ramjet]

Its not hostility, Ramjet, just a simple request. I am fluent in Cantonese, and have been to China more than you can count, and can understand the language, studied its history, and politics. The last i need is to be schooled in basics.

Ok. So you are fluent in Cantonese, what about Mandarin? Or that was too obvious to even mention?

 

[TaiShang]

Its not hostility, Ramjet, just a simple request. I am fluent in Cantonese, and have been to China more than you can count, and can understand the language, studied its history, and politics. The last i need is to be schooled in basics.

Cannot out-talk him He will prolong the dialogue until you give up, lol.

You will probably end up talking about CPC or population. This guy is like a bubble gum; you can chew but never able to consume.