"We will wait 100 years...."

[Sine Nomine]

@Nihonjin1051 @Genesis do you guys think Chinese mega CPEC project which worth's 46 billion dollars in Pakistan is Part of it's great game in south china sea as you know china is preparing a web of oil pipelines,rail roads and highways to connect Xian province with Gawdar, after project is even partially operational any navel blockade of china will be of no use?

 

[Genesis]

@Nihonjin1051 @Genesis do you guys think Chinese mega CPEC project which worth's 46 billion dollars in Pakistan is Part of it's great game in south china sea as you know china is preparing a web of oil pipelines,rail roads and highways to connect Xian province with Gawdar, after project is even partially operational any navel blockade of china will be of no use?

We are looking past it, if all China is thinking about is SCS, then we don't deserve to be in the running for the title of P4P best in the world.

The Pakistan deal is to help Pakistan, create economic opportunities as well, but mostly it's to help Pakistan. I say this not to say China is nice. I mean a stronger Pakistan serves infinitely better than a weak Pakistan.

Pakistan has roughly the same population as Japan, with the possibility of doubling it in 40 years. A strong Pakistan guarantees Chinese presence in South Asia.

In the great game of nations, if we don't have a great power ally, we'll make one.

In terms of the blockade theory, no one has enough power to do that to China, so that's not really a reason.

lol, are you trying to tell me that this OPBF featherweight championship is going to cause 'Bad Blood where it once was Mad Love' ?


you know you love my reference to Taylor's hit

Philippines and China is more like, Magic, madness, heaven, sin, I could show you incredible things, and I could make the bad guys good for a weekend.

 

[Sine Nomine]

In terms of the blockade theory, no one has enough power to do that to China, so that's not really a reason.

But still they are capable of disrupting things for long time after US has moved 60% it's fleet in that area and India is also dying to join them for power,they would have total control of strait of malaca..

 

[Aepsilons]

@Nihonjin1051 @Genesis do you guys think Chinese mega CPEC project which worth's 46 billion dollars in Pakistan is Part of it's great game in south china sea as you know china is preparing a web of oil pipelines,rail roads and highways to connect Xian province with Gawdar, after project is even partially operational any navel blockade of china will be of no use?

Definitely the CPEC has its strategic uses in the Sino-Pakistani paradigm. The CPEC will run from the Chinese city of Kashgar to the port of Gwadar in Pakistan. Gwadar is a deep-sea port that was initially developed and upgraded by the Chinese, who now have effective control. An all-weather, all-season port, Gwadar is strategically located, particularly vis-à-vis Dubai and Oman. Aware of its importance, China has now decided to lay down road (primarily) and air-train networks (gradually).

The concept to develop the port at Gwadar first emerged several decades ago, although for many years little progress was made. In 2003, however, formal construction commenced under Pakistan’s former President Pervez Musharraf, with economic and technical assistance from China. The Pakistani military felt that existing ports were not sufficient for defensive purposes, and was seeking a second option. Beijing meanwhile had its eye on easier access to the Persian Gulf and Middle East.

To answer your question, well technically to address your reference on the issue of a naval blockade in China --- a naval blockade in any state in East Asia is highly unlikely without expecting massive losses for either side.

CPEC aims to reduce the dependency of the Straits of Malaccas for the Chinese , in fact, that is the very reason why they are so adamant in continuing the Kra Canal project with Thailand, which is in tandem with Japan's Dawei Project with Myanmar, which aims to connect both the western to the eastern parts of Southeast Asia. CPEC would encourage greater economic integration between Pakistan and Western China , a fact that China has been keen in realizing in recent years. For obvious geopolitical strategic value.



Regards,

Philippines and China is more like, Magic, madness, heaven, sin, I could show you incredible things, and I could make the bad guys good for a weekend.

ha ha ha ha ha LOL!

into the night?

 

[Sine Nomine]

Definitely the CPEC has its strategic uses in the Sino-Pakistani paradigm. The CPEC will run from the Chinese city of Kashgar to the port of Gwadar in Pakistan. Gwadar is a deep-sea port that was initially developed and upgraded by the Chinese, who now have effective control. An all-weather, all-season port, Gwadar is strategically located, particularly vis-à-vis Dubai and Oman. Aware of its importance, China has now decided to lay down road (primarily) and air-train networks (gradually).

The concept to develop the port at Gwadar first emerged several decades ago, although for many years little progress was made. In 2003, however, formal construction commenced under Pakistan’s former President Pervez Musharraf, with economic and technical assistance from China. The Pakistani military felt that existing ports were not sufficient for defensive purposes, and was seeking a second option. Beijing meanwhile had its eye on easier access to the Persian Gulf and Middle East.

To answer your question, well technically to address your reference on the issue of a naval blockade in China --- a naval blockade in any state in East Asia is highly unlikely without expecting massive losses for either side.

CPEC aims to reduce the dependency of the Straits of Malaccas for the Chinese , in fact, that is the very reason why they are so adamant in continuing the Kra Canal project with Thailand, which is in tandem with Japan's Dawei Project with Myanmar, which aims to connect both the western to the eastern parts of Southeast Asia. CPEC would encourage greater economic integration between Pakistan and Western China , a fact that China has been keen in realizing in recent years. For obvious geopolitical strategic value.

But still they are capable of disrupting things for long time after US has moved 60% it's fleet in that area and India is also dying to join them for power,they would have total control of strait of Malaccas

 

[Echo_419]

You would be ancient if you are in your 20s right now !


What about indian occupied territories lol.

Kasmir than bhi Kashmir rahega

 

[Aepsilons]

But still they are capable of disrupting things for long time after US has moved 60% it's fleet in that area and India is also dying to join them for power,they would have total control of strait of Malaccas

Theoretically speaking, yes. But the reality on the ground shows that the largest trading partner for both the United States and China, respectively, is each other. There has been one sane member in this forum who has continually reiterated this reality -- @LeveragedBuyout . The United States is the largest consumer of Chinese goods (note that China's economy is mostly export driven) and a theoretical conflict would lead to the collapse of trade relations between the two. It would be devastating to both economies. The bypass of this so called CPEC would be unable to offset the loss in nearly $600 Billion USD worth in bilateral trade.

A war, honestly, would hurt the 1st, 2nd, and 3rd largest economies in the world (USA, China, and Japan respectively) as the combined trilateral trade volume between the three Economic Powerhouses is over $1 Trillion.

 

[Hamartia Antidote]

Mao said, we will wait 100 years before taking Taiwan.

Kinmen - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Battle of Guningtou - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
"The failure of the Communists to take the island left it in the hands of the Kuomintang (Nationalists) and crushed their chances of taking Taiwan to destroy the Nationalists completely in the war"

Casualties and losses
China: 3,873 killed,5,175 captured
Kinmen (currently owned by Taiwan) 1,267 killed, 1,982 wounded

Yes, Taiwan still owns that tiny little island 2km off China's coast!

 

[Bussard Ramjet]

@Nihonjin1051 @Genesis do you guys think Chinese mega CPEC project which worth's 46 billion dollars in Pakistan is Part of it's great game in south china sea as you know china is preparing a web of oil pipelines,rail roads and highways to connect Xian province with Gawdar, after project is even partially operational any navel blockade of china will be of no use?

No. Sea Travel is SIGNIFICANTLY cheaper than any land route, specially one that will go through as hostile terrain as that of Gilgit, etc.

What China is trying to do is to activate its west, by giving it connectivity. Xinjiang will hence have a greater connectivity. Some essential things can also be delivered. But a trade embargo will be devastating, not only because even with CPEC, the simple Volume of Chinese trade can't be handled by that corridor, but because it is significantly costly!

 

[Genesis]

Kinmen - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Battle of Guningtou - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
"The failure of the Communists to take the island left it in the hands of the Kuomintang (Nationalists) and crushed their chances of taking Taiwan to destroy the Nationalists completely in the war"

Casualties and losses
China: 3,873 killed,5,175 captured
Kinmen (currently owned by Taiwan) 1,267 killed, 1,982 wounded

Yes, Taiwan still owns that tiny little island 2km off China's coast!

There a fine line between genius and stupidity, and you not only crossed it, but cartwheeled over it.

But still they are capable of disrupting things for long time after US has moved 60% it's fleet in that area and India is also dying to join them for power,they would have total control of strait of Malaccas

Sure in theory and reality we can beat most of our opponents until they scream uncle, doesn't make it a practical choice.

ha ha ha ha ha LOL!

into the night?

No, I thought we are going all Tay Tay, it's Blank Space.

 

[Hamartia Antidote]

2049.

I will be so old or maybe not make it at all to see China once again tthe no. 1 country.

It will be awesome if PDF is still around and we can look back and read through the.millions of threads chronicling the rise.of China and the comment of those who wishes for Chinese collapse.

Actually 2073
Mao said that to Henry Kissinger in Nov. 1973 (after the US sold Taiwan GUPPY II subs)

 

[+4vsgorillas-Apebane]

Actually 2073
Mao said that to Henry Kissinger in Nov. 1973 (after the US sold Taiwan GUPPY II subs)

I will certainly not make it to 2073. In fact, I fear that there might be no mountain gorillas left in the world by then.

 

[Shotgunner51]

Right now, for you the biggest problem is population!
Cities like Shanghai in China have a fertility ratio of 0.79! China's population, if it goes the way it is going, will half.

Yeah I can testify to this as a Shanghainese. Our local population is shrinking (fertility ratio of 0.79 as you said), however we are still keep expanding for some many "neo-Shanghainese" are coming here everywhere, say other Chinese provinces, neigboring countries (ever-expanding community of TW/HK, SK, Japan) and others.

Similar trend is happening to other provincial capitals, major cities.

But yes from a country perspective Chinese population is shrinking.

 

[AndrewJin]

Yeah I can testify to this as a Shanghainese. Our local population is shrinking (fertility ratio of 0.79 as you said), however we are still keep expanding for some many "neo-Shanghainese" are coming here everywhere, say other Chinese provinces, neigboring countries (ever-expanding community of TW/HK, SK, Japan) and others.

Similar trend is happening to other provincial capitals, major cities.

But yes from a country perspective Chinese population is shrinking.

He is really worried about Chinese population in every thread...The biggest threat related to him should be the low-quality population which poses a huge threat to society back in his own country...

 

[Bussard Ramjet]

He is really worried about Chinese population in every thread...The biggest threat related to him should be the low-quality population which poses a huge threat to society back in his own country...

India's fertility rate has actually come down significantly, and the population is beginning to stabilize. Also, the increase in productivity can had very easily, especially when you have <7k per capita dollars economy.

But, in real size it is absolute size that matters. Also, what will happen of the aged, who will support them. Population is always an asset, especially as a market. And technology is the answer to sustain a high population efficiently.

He is really worried about Chinese population in every thread...The biggest threat related to him should be the low-quality population which poses a huge threat to society back in his own country...

The single biggest problem with population is that it is treachrous.

What does that mean?

Population has its own inertia.

Let us say 2 people start at time 0th generation.

They give birth to 6children, who are at 1st generation. So total population = 2 + 6.

Next, 6 children give birth to say 30 children. Tot population = 2 + 6 + 30. By 2nd generation.

Next, 30 give birth to 70 children. tot population = 2 + 6 + 30 + 70. By 3rd generation.

Next 70 children give birth to 100tot population = 6 + 30 + 70 + 100By 4th generation. (Note that the 0th generation is dead)

Next 100 give birth to 100. Tot Population = 30 + 70 + 100 + 100. By 5th Generation (Note that the fertility rate has already come down to 2, and since we are not taking here any premature deaths, this is the replacement ratio, yet the population will continue to increase for a while.)

Next 100 give birth to 90 Tot Population = 70 + 100 + 100 + 90. (Note: Fertility rate is below replacement, but due to past inertia the net population is increasing.)

Next 90 give birth to 80. Tot Population = 100 + 100 + 90 + 80 (Note: This is a very painful age, because just see the increase in size of the aged.)

Next 80 give birth to 60. Tot Population = 100+ 90 + 80 + 60 (Note: This is actually the first year that population declines, taking 3 extra generation before fertility rates started reflecting in population growth trends.)

Next 60 give birth to 30. Tot Population = 90 + 80 + 60 + 30. (The population has already halved.)

Did you notice something? That it took only 1 generation from the decline in population to being reduced to half!)


Demographics is a really complicated thing, and it is both slow and fast. It carries a lot of inertia, and can't be controlled easily.