TheImmortal
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Trump Told Mar-a-Lago Pals to Expect ‘Big’ Iran Action ‘Soon
https://www.thedailybeast.com/trump...-big-iran-action-days-before-soleimanis-death
War is Coming: US running a de-fang operation
- Thread starter TheImmortal
- Start date
Trump Told Mar-a-Lago Pals to Expect ‘Big’ Iran Action ‘Soon
https://www.thedailybeast.com/trump...-big-iran-action-days-before-soleimanis-death
libertad
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I think Trump is a chump and is being set up by the deep state. In the initial new year's eve attack it was reported that Esper and Pompeo briefed Trump after the attack. Implying that the initial attack was the executed by the Pentagon brass and Trump was briefed after. I'm of course prepared to believe that Trump oversaw that attack as well, but I'm wondering why there is such a conscious effort by the Pentagon and the zionist media to portray Trump as the initiator in this Soleimani attack, but not the new year's eve attack which killed 25? I think they know there will be retaliation and since Trump is being held up as the inspiration for the death of Soleimani, he will also be blamed for the fall out which will no doubt mean the death of American soldiers.
But hey your guess is as good as mine.
Sineva
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There would be very little that the rest of the world could do about it militarily if even the us with its existing forces in the region couldnt do much,keep in mind that the military build ups required for both desert storm and iraqi freedom took several months each with the iraqis doing nothing to interfere with them on either occasion.
I really wouldnt question irans ability not only to blockade hormuz but to wreck most of the oil and gas infrastructure in the region if I was you,keep in mind that the strike on the Abqaiq and Khurais refineries that knocked out 50% of saudi oil production was carried out only using around 20+ small kamikaze drones based on older iranian designs and 3 low tech cruise missiles,in terms of explosive payload these were very small but the guidance systems were state of the art with an accuracy measured in the low single meters.Now if these weapons were only launched from iran rather than yemen this attack was still carried out over a distance in excess of 600kms,by comparison most of the major oil and gas facilities in the persian gulf are less than 300kms from irans coastline.
Just to put it in perspective for you heres a couple of maps of the relevant oil+gas infrastructure in the region.
This is the bulk of the pg infrastructure,most of this is within range of highly accurate short ranged weapons like the fateh 110
And heres the regional infrastructure.
Ultimately just even blockading the strait of hormuz would have a huge effect globally on oil and gas prices as effectively it would mean the removal of over a third of the worlds sea traded oil and gas from the market.
10 years ago US imported a lot of oil---and closure of Straight of Hormuz was a real deterrence during Bush era
But in 2019 US produced 12mln barrels of oil per day and consumed 20mln barrels of oil per day----so US imported 8mln barrels of oil per day---mostly from Canada, Mexico, Venezuela and Saudi Arabia.
North American is mostly self-sufficient in oil production and most of ME oil goes to Asia and Europe.
In the event of war US Congress can install a fixed price on oil produced domestically and ban oil exports, but US will still have to pay a market price for the import of 8mln barrels of oil per day.
So in the event of war in the Persian Gulf, gasoline price will go up and this will generate inflation in USA (+another 3-6% to inflation). Federal Reserve will increase interest rates to fight inflation and credit will become more expensive, thus decreasing aggregate demand and pouring US economy into recession.
The other damage to US-- is its trade-----US exports 1,6 trln$ worth of goods and imports is 2,6trln$
When there will be a global recession in Asia and Europe---US exports will fall and this will intensify recession in US
BUT
In 2025 US can produce (by some estimates) 16mln barrels of oil----so they will become more or less self-sufficient and destruction of oil infrastructure in the Persian Gulf will no longer be a deterrence.
Iran has few years before its LARGEST DETERRENCE to US attack will no longer work.---So Iran has few years to go nuclear to protect itself.
Openly enriching uranium for nuclear bomb is dangerous because US will detect it and can attack-----so the only option is enriching uranium under IAEA supervision and secretly buy nuclear weapons from North Korea
According to RAND, North Korea will have fissile material for 100 nuclear warheads by 2020. That is more than enough for North Korea ---and if the price is right, Iran can buy 10-15 warheads.
US ground force is not a threat --since they will be ineffective in the mountains of Iran.
The only threat is US Air Force that can deploy 1500 aircraft in 30 air bases in Saudi Arabia----so Iran needs at least 30 nuclear warhead to destroy US air force.
But in 2019 US produced 12mln barrels of oil per day and consumed 20mln barrels of oil per day----so US imported 8mln barrels of oil per day---mostly from Canada, Mexico, Venezuela and Saudi Arabia.
North American is mostly self-sufficient in oil production and most of ME oil goes to Asia and Europe.
In the event of war US Congress can install a fixed price on oil produced domestically and ban oil exports, but US will still have to pay a market price for the import of 8mln barrels of oil per day.
So in the event of war in the Persian Gulf, gasoline price will go up and this will generate inflation in USA (+another 3-6% to inflation). Federal Reserve will increase interest rates to fight inflation and credit will become more expensive, thus decreasing aggregate demand and pouring US economy into recession.
The other damage to US-- is its trade-----US exports 1,6 trln$ worth of goods and imports is 2,6trln$
When there will be a global recession in Asia and Europe---US exports will fall and this will intensify recession in US
BUT
In 2025 US can produce (by some estimates) 16mln barrels of oil----so they will become more or less self-sufficient and destruction of oil infrastructure in the Persian Gulf will no longer be a deterrence.
Iran has few years before its LARGEST DETERRENCE to US attack will no longer work.---So Iran has few years to go nuclear to protect itself.
Openly enriching uranium for nuclear bomb is dangerous because US will detect it and can attack-----so the only option is enriching uranium under IAEA supervision and secretly buy nuclear weapons from North Korea
According to RAND, North Korea will have fissile material for 100 nuclear warheads by 2020. That is more than enough for North Korea ---and if the price is right, Iran can buy 10-15 warheads.
US ground force is not a threat --since they will be ineffective in the mountains of Iran.
The only threat is US Air Force that can deploy 1500 aircraft in 30 air bases in Saudi Arabia----so Iran needs at least 30 nuclear warhead to destroy US air force.
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Alpha BeeTee
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One cannot deny Iran's ability to stir up trouble and make headlines BUT you are simply not thinking two steps ahead. What about the reaction that Iran will have to face from both the Arabs and the Yanks? What about Iran's own infrastructure/refineries/military installations? What would stop the 'world' from not levelling to the ground everything that is of significance in Iran? Why would the world tolerate being kept hostage by the Ayatollahs? It's not really about what and where Iran can hit.There would be very little that the rest of the world could do about it militarily if even the us with its existing forces in the region couldnt do much,keep in mind that the military build ups required for both desert storm and iraqi freedom took several months each with the iraqis doing nothing to interfere with them on either occasion.
I really wouldnt question irans ability not only to blockade hormuz but to wreck most of the oil and gas infrastructure in the region if I was you,keep in mind that the strike on the Abqaiq and Khurais refineries that knocked out 50% of saudi oil production was carried out only using around 20+ small kamikaze drones based on older iranian designs and 3 low tech cruise missiles,in terms of explosive payload these were very small but the guidance systems were state of the art with an accuracy measured in the low single meters.Now if these weapons were only launched from iran rather than yemen this attack was still carried out over a distance in excess of 600kms,by comparison most of the major oil and gas facilities in the persian gulf are less than 300kms from irans coastline.
Just to put it in perspective for you heres a couple of maps of the relevant oil+gas infrastructure in the region.
This is the bulk of the pg infrastructure,most of this is within range of highly accurate short ranged weapons like the fateh 110
And heres the regional infrastructure.
Ultimately just even blockading the strait of hormuz would have a huge effect globally on oil and gas prices as effectively it would mean the removal of over a third of the worlds sea traded oil and gas from the market.
It's more about how much of the counter-punch Iran can resist?
Already crippling with sanctions and bad economy. Or maybe Iran might get a miracle and Russkies and China might jump in full fledge and announce that US must not violate Iran's territorial sovereignity. That is unlikley though.
As I said earlier, going conventional or antagonizing the world through blocades is suicide for Iran because it gives the US the justification to start bombing Tehran.
DoubleYouSee
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That muda fukka donold trump just wanna persuade Iran to negotiate....nothing more.....by the way we have lost and won lots of wars as other empires
Old School
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Iran probably has nukes the same way Israel does. It is called nuclear ambiguity where one neither confirms nor denies the existance of nukes. For now, they are publicly denying but it is probably the best option. Do western powers know about it ? Of course, they do. The key question is the delivery methods. Iran is yet to publicly test an ICBM. Once they do, the game will change.
no it won’t Russians does not fight for Muslims. Russian broken promises are littered all over the middle east and globe of American toppling pro Moscow regimes. so the answer is no Russia will not help or defend Iran
This is very normal western mentality. The news comment section of Norwegian media is always filled with comments calling for genocide of muslims
WordsMatter
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This is Khamenie's "chalice" moment. He promised security and strength, touted the invincibility of the revolutionary order, and boasted of punishing the US. How things turned up-side-down in a matter of mere seconds. There will be no retaliation from IRI, that I am sure of. Not because she can't, she can; but the uncertainty of the outcome will propel the pragmatists in Iran to step-up and prevent a suicidal undertaking. Iran will endure this humiliation but will exert a heavy price on the people that advocated and executed this radical anti-world posture, which in all honesty has brought an almost ruin to the country.
LOL...IRGC Commander Unveils Details of US Message to Iran after Assassination of Gen. Soleimani
https://www.tasnimnews.com/en/news/...-to-iran-after-assassination-of-gen-soleimani
US asked for ‘proportionate response’ to Soleimani’s killing
https://www.timesofisrael.com/iran-says-us-asked-for-proportionate-response-to-soleimanis-killing/
https://www.tasnimnews.com/en/news/...-to-iran-after-assassination-of-gen-soleimani
US asked for ‘proportionate response’ to Soleimani’s killing
https://www.timesofisrael.com/iran-says-us-asked-for-proportionate-response-to-soleimanis-killing/
Messerschmitt
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khansaheeb
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China is in it's own scheme too in respect to Taiwan so they may get indirectly involved. Pakistan has a moral dilemma of wanting to help Iran but not upsetting Saudis. Then there is the elephant in the room India who was bosoming upto the Iranians and has now has to show their cards,intent and game plan. India is fu(ked either way.
YeBeWarned
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If you come across any, Post it here .. PDF reaches to thousands of people across the world, so lots of people will know about it .
I will try to calculate the damage that will be done to US economy in the event of war with Iran
Right now oil price is 60$ per barrel. What will be the oil price in the event of war? Some say-150$ per barrel, but this doesn't make sense, because 150$ per barrel was the price of oil in 2007 --even without war.
In 2011 Stratfor estimated that oil price will climb to 500$ per barrel if Iran closes the Straight of Hormuz------but I will take an estimate that price will be 350$ per barrel in the event of closure of the Straight of Hormuz
First, US consumes 7,3 bln barrels of oil per year, while produce 4,3bln barrels of oil----Deficit: 3bln barrels of oil that needs to be imported.
With oil price being 60$ per barrel, US spent (7,3bln barrels*60$=) 440bln$ per year on oil (if oil price is 60$ per barrel)
Lets assume the war starts, Iran closes the Strait of Hormuz and oil price climbs to 350$ per barrel.
In order to protect US economy from oil shock, Congress will pass a law banning US oil exports and establishing a fixed price of domestically produced oil at 60$ per barrel (it will be forbidden by law for domestic oil producers to sell oil at a price higher than 60$ per barrel )----so 4,3 bln barrels of domestic oil will be sold at a fixed price of 60$ per barrel......But import oil---3bln barrels----will be bought at a market price of 350$ per barrel
So US spending on oil will be (4,3bln barrels*60$ + 3bln barrels*350$)= 1308 bln$ per year
So in peace time US spends 440bln$ per year on oil,---- during the war it will have to spend 1,3trln$ per year on oil--------this is three times more----meaning gasoline price will rise by a factor of 3----from 2,9$ per gallon---to 8,7$ per gallon
1308bln$ spending on oil at war time----minus ----440bln$ spending at peace time =difference of 870bln$
Now, if US household spend larger portion of their net income on gasoline---they spend less on other things like groceries or entertainment etc------If US household spend 870bln$ more on gasoline --they spend on other things 870bln$ less----MEANING OTHER SECTORS WILL EXPERIENCE FALL IN DEMAND WORTH 870BLN$
If demand on groceries, entertainment etc... falls by 870bln$---GDP will decrease by 870*1,5= 1300bln$
(1,5 is multiplier effect coefficient. Spending multiplier is---for example when you increase spending by 1 dollar, GDP usually growth by 1,5 dollars and vice versa)---1300bln$ recession--- is US GDP declining by 6,5%
Now the second issue is US exports----US exports is 1,6trln$-----70% of exports go to Asia and Europe and those regions will experience huge recession so US exports will fall ...let say...by 10%-----Meaning 160bln$........Exports decline by 160bln means GDP will decline by 240bln$ or 1,2% if we take multiplier effect into account (with coefficient 1,5)
Now, if GDP declines by 6,5% due to oil price increase and 1,2% due to decline in exports = 7,7% GDP decline----this means US budget revenues will fall by 7,7% as well.
Since US budget revenues are 3,65trln$---this means revenues will fall by 280bln$ and this amount will have to be borrowed by issuing new bonds and paying interest on them.
Then we have direct costs of war....In Desert Storm US deployed 500.000 troops. In 2003 invasion US deployed 280.000 troops......Lets assume that for the purpose of defense of Kuwait and Saudi Arabia US will deploy 350.000 troops......Deploying 1 fully equipped soldier in the war zone costs 1mln$ per year, meaning deploying 350.000 will cost 350bln$ per year.
In Desert Storm Coalition flew 98.000 sorties against Iraq which had a population of 18mln people back then. Iran has a population of 83mln people---4,6 times larger----so at least 450.000 sorties will be needed at the event of war with Iran.....One sortie costs 100k$ on average so 450.000 sorties will cost 45bln$
So direct costs of war ---350bln$ for deployment +45bln$ for air campaign = 395bln$ in first year of war.---this amount must be borrowed by issuing new treasures.
Final costs of war with Iran:
1) 870bln$ per year---US households overpaying for gasoline
2) GDP decline by 1,3trln$ or 6,5% + GDP decline due to exports declining by 240bln$ or 1,2%--------total GDP decline ---7,7%
3) Direct costs of war------395bln$ in first year of war.
4) US federal debt rising by additional (395bln$ + 280bln$) = 675bln$ ----just because of war
5) damage due to Stock market decline-----hundreds of billions
6) additional indirect costs like pensions for veterans of Iran war, interests on debt etc...----unknown
Total damage: 870bln$+1,54trln$+ 675bln$=3085bln$ +hundreds of billions due to Stock market decline
And all this is for USA-----countries in Asia and Europe will experience even more severe recession
The only winner will be Russia----price of oil will increase so will Russian budget revenues +US will be distracted in a new quagmire, thus giving Russia time to rise in Europe
So Dotard will think twice before attacking Iran even if Iran crosses the red line
Right now oil price is 60$ per barrel. What will be the oil price in the event of war? Some say-150$ per barrel, but this doesn't make sense, because 150$ per barrel was the price of oil in 2007 --even without war.
In 2011 Stratfor estimated that oil price will climb to 500$ per barrel if Iran closes the Straight of Hormuz------but I will take an estimate that price will be 350$ per barrel in the event of closure of the Straight of Hormuz
First, US consumes 7,3 bln barrels of oil per year, while produce 4,3bln barrels of oil----Deficit: 3bln barrels of oil that needs to be imported.
With oil price being 60$ per barrel, US spent (7,3bln barrels*60$=) 440bln$ per year on oil (if oil price is 60$ per barrel)
Lets assume the war starts, Iran closes the Strait of Hormuz and oil price climbs to 350$ per barrel.
In order to protect US economy from oil shock, Congress will pass a law banning US oil exports and establishing a fixed price of domestically produced oil at 60$ per barrel (it will be forbidden by law for domestic oil producers to sell oil at a price higher than 60$ per barrel )----so 4,3 bln barrels of domestic oil will be sold at a fixed price of 60$ per barrel......But import oil---3bln barrels----will be bought at a market price of 350$ per barrel
So US spending on oil will be (4,3bln barrels*60$ + 3bln barrels*350$)= 1308 bln$ per year
So in peace time US spends 440bln$ per year on oil,---- during the war it will have to spend 1,3trln$ per year on oil--------this is three times more----meaning gasoline price will rise by a factor of 3----from 2,9$ per gallon---to 8,7$ per gallon
1308bln$ spending on oil at war time----minus ----440bln$ spending at peace time =difference of 870bln$
Now, if US household spend larger portion of their net income on gasoline---they spend less on other things like groceries or entertainment etc------If US household spend 870bln$ more on gasoline --they spend on other things 870bln$ less----MEANING OTHER SECTORS WILL EXPERIENCE FALL IN DEMAND WORTH 870BLN$
If demand on groceries, entertainment etc... falls by 870bln$---GDP will decrease by 870*1,5= 1300bln$
(1,5 is multiplier effect coefficient. Spending multiplier is---for example when you increase spending by 1 dollar, GDP usually growth by 1,5 dollars and vice versa)---1300bln$ recession--- is US GDP declining by 6,5%
Now the second issue is US exports----US exports is 1,6trln$-----70% of exports go to Asia and Europe and those regions will experience huge recession so US exports will fall ...let say...by 10%-----Meaning 160bln$........Exports decline by 160bln means GDP will decline by 240bln$ or 1,2% if we take multiplier effect into account (with coefficient 1,5)
Now, if GDP declines by 6,5% due to oil price increase and 1,2% due to decline in exports = 7,7% GDP decline----this means US budget revenues will fall by 7,7% as well.
Since US budget revenues are 3,65trln$---this means revenues will fall by 280bln$ and this amount will have to be borrowed by issuing new bonds and paying interest on them.
Then we have direct costs of war....In Desert Storm US deployed 500.000 troops. In 2003 invasion US deployed 280.000 troops......Lets assume that for the purpose of defense of Kuwait and Saudi Arabia US will deploy 350.000 troops......Deploying 1 fully equipped soldier in the war zone costs 1mln$ per year, meaning deploying 350.000 will cost 350bln$ per year.
In Desert Storm Coalition flew 98.000 sorties against Iraq which had a population of 18mln people back then. Iran has a population of 83mln people---4,6 times larger----so at least 450.000 sorties will be needed at the event of war with Iran.....One sortie costs 100k$ on average so 450.000 sorties will cost 45bln$
So direct costs of war ---350bln$ for deployment +45bln$ for air campaign = 395bln$ in first year of war.---this amount must be borrowed by issuing new treasures.
Final costs of war with Iran:
1) 870bln$ per year---US households overpaying for gasoline
2) GDP decline by 1,3trln$ or 6,5% + GDP decline due to exports declining by 240bln$ or 1,2%--------total GDP decline ---7,7%
3) Direct costs of war------395bln$ in first year of war.
4) US federal debt rising by additional (395bln$ + 280bln$) = 675bln$ ----just because of war
5) damage due to Stock market decline-----hundreds of billions
6) additional indirect costs like pensions for veterans of Iran war, interests on debt etc...----unknown
Total damage: 870bln$+1,54trln$+ 675bln$=3085bln$ +hundreds of billions due to Stock market decline
And all this is for USA-----countries in Asia and Europe will experience even more severe recession
The only winner will be Russia----price of oil will increase so will Russian budget revenues +US will be distracted in a new quagmire, thus giving Russia time to rise in Europe
So Dotard will think twice before attacking Iran even if Iran crosses the red line
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