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Vietnam Defence Forum

aq, nice pic. let me enlarge it.

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more pictures of the Sixth Kilo-class submarine launch ceremony.

September 28, HQ-187 Ba Ria Vung Tau, at the Admiralty Shipyard in St. Petersburg. the submariners stand ready to serve the ship on the sea trails. all kilo subs are equipped with deadly supersonic klub-s cruise missiles targeting sea and land targets.


I hope the Navy will order more of this toy.

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What does "Baria" mean?
 
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Vietnam Is Changing... And So Is the Balance of Power in Asia
All signs point to intense internal debate on leadership and foreign policy.

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By Carl Thayer
October 02, 2015

On September 15, Vietnam’s political log jam suddenly burst with the simultaneous launch of a website dedicated to preparations for the twelfth national party congress and the release of the draft Political Report and Socio-Economic Plan for 2016-2020.

The Vietnamese public has been given until the end of October to send in comments on the draft policy documents.

Key policy documents are usually released well in advance of a national congress. For example, the draft Political Report and Five-Year Socio-Economic Plan were released nine months before the eleventh national party congress in January 2011. This time only four months remain to complete preparations for the twelfth congress scheduled for January 2016.

Prior to the launch of the website and release of key policy documents, Vietnam’s preparations for the twelfth party congress had been particularly low key. Although leadership selection was discussed at the eleventh plenary meeting of the party Central Committee that met in May no announcements were made.

Observers in Hanoi report that the Central Committee may reconvene in October to resolve the impasse over leadership with a further session planned for November if consensus cannot be reached.

Media reports suggest there are two main contenders for the post of party Secretary General – Prime Minister Nguyen Tan Dung and his long-term rival President Truong Tan Sang. Both are southerners. The post of party leader has traditionally gone to a northerner.

If the party Central Committee cannot reach consensus there are two likely possibilities. The first possibility is that both candidates will stand down and retire from politics and the next party leader will be chosen from among the members of the current Politburo who are eligible for election at the congress.

The second possibility could see the incumbent party leader, Nguyen Phu Trong, reappointed on the understanding that he would make way for another leader before his five-year term in office expired. This solution would mirror the decision by the eighth party congress in 1996 to re-appoint Do Muoi as party Secretary General on the understanding he would step down before mid-term. Do Muoi was replaced by Le Kha Phieu in late 1997.

When Vietnam enters its political season in advance of a national party congress current events are subject to intense scrutiny by political observers to discern which way the winds are blowing. This year is no exception.

For example, when the Chinese Embassy in Hanoi held a reception to celebrate its National Day (held early on September 29) Vietnam was represented by its Minister for Planning and Investment, Bui Quang Vinh. Vinh is not a member of the Politburo and is expected to retire after the twelfth party congress. There was intense speculation in Hanoi why such a comparatively “low level” official represented the Vietnamese government.

On September 30, the day after the reception, Vietnamese media reported that Ha Huy Hoang, a former employee of Ministry of Foreign Affairs and a former journalist with the Vietnam and the World Weekly, had been tried and convicted for spying for China. Hoang was sentenced to six years in jail.

Media reporting on espionage cases involving Vietnamese citizens are exceedingly rare. This led to speculation on the timing of the trial and who authorised media reporting. Speculation only intensified when Tuoi Tre, VnExpress and other media outlets took down their reports from their websites on the afternoon of publication. Speculation now turned to who ordered that these reports be rescinded and why.

The timing of the espionage trial took place in the midst of continued in-fighting by Vietnam’s political elite as the twelfth party congress approaches. It is clear that one central issue that has yet to be resolved is how Vietnam will manage its relations with China and the United States. For example, the anoydyne draft Politicial Report gave no hint of future policy directions on this vexed question.

It is evident that some elements of Vietnam’s political elite approved media reporting of the espionage trial involving China and a Vietnamese citizen. This development follows on the heels of reports that China has been given permission to open a Consulate General in Da Nang.

The publicity given to the espionage trial, and the decision to rescind news reporting, is a significant sign that how Vietnam manages its relations with China and the United States is a heated topic at the moment. Those who oppose getting too close to the United States highlight the “threat of peaceful evolution” as a national security threat. They point to U.S. pressure on human rights and religious freedom as part of this threat.

The allegations of Chinese espionage fuels allied concerns that China continues to interfere in Vietnam’s internal affairs and may be attempting to influence the outcome of the forthcoming national party congress. Hanoi based observers have told The Diplomat that China has informed selected Vietnamese leaders that it opposes the elevation of Foreign Minister Pham Binh Minh, who is viewed as pro-American.

Vietnamese sources also report that China has let it be known privately that President Xi Jinping may call off his expected visit to Vietnam this month if Hanoi does not mute its criticism of China’s construction of artificial islands in the South China Sea. These same sources believe the visit will go ahead because so much is at stake for China.

Those who want closer ties with the United States stress the economic advantages of membership in the Trans-Pacific Partnership. This group is now countering the argument of the “threat of peaceful evolution” by pointing to Chinese espionage as a major threat to national security.

In other words, the threat of peaceful evolution from the United States is now being counterpoised with the threat of Chinese subversion.

Vietnam’s decision to publicize the espionage trial, coupled with the release of several dissidents in recent months, are straws in the wind of a possible change in Vietnam-United States relations.

President Truong Tan Sang recently stated in a media interview that China’s construction of artificial islands was illegal under international law and endangered maritime security. Sang’s interview was given to the Associated Press in New York while he was attending the annual meeting of the United Nations General Assembly.

Sang’s remarks were directed at both international and domestic audiences. Sang’s remarks in New York may be viewed as preparing the grounds for deepening relations with the United States. At the same time, his remarks may be viewed as burnishing his national security credentials domestically.

It should be recalled that Sang visited Washington in mid-2013 and met with President Barack Obama in the White House. After their talks the two leaders announced their agreement on a comprehensive partnership.

Vietnamese leaders who advocate deepening ties with the United States need some indication that Vietnam’s actions will be reciprocated to win over their domestic critics. That is why Sang called for an end to all U.S. restrictions on the sale of lethal weapons to Vietnam in his New York interview. Sang also repeated affirmations he made in Washington two years ago that Vietnam would engage the United States on human rights.

China’s construction of artificial islands in the South China Sea, complete with infrastructure to support a Chinese naval and military air presence, is a major driver behind those pushing for a deeper relationship with the United States.

Vietnam is expected to host official visits by President Xi Jinping and President Barack Obama in October and November. Given the present leadership in-fighting in Hanoi each of these visits may be viewed as separate auditions for Vietnam’s future orientation.


Vietnam Is Changing… And So Is the Balance of Power in Asia | The Diplomat
 
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the Russians are ready to arm Vietnam surface warships with the most powerful antiship missiles on the planet: Club-S: VLS, range 300km, speed subsonic en route to target, accelerating to Mach 3 on final approach, flying as low as 5-10 m over the water surface, making enemy radars nearly impossible to detect, inertial guidance plus terminal Active radar homing, conventional warhead.

the subnonic cruise missile, a land attack variant can target enemy installations such as airfields and seaports.

nice!



Russia ready to supply Club-class missiles for Vietnam-bound frigates
10:20 October 6, 2015 Alexander Korablinov, RBTH
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The Gepard [Cheetan] frigate seen at Zelenodolsk shipyard in Tatarstan. Source: TASS/ Yegor Aleyev

Russia is ready to equip the Gepard-class 3.9 frigates for Vietnam with Club-class cruise missile systems, Sergei Rudenko, director of Zelenodolsk shipbuilding plant said, according to Sputnik News.

"If the Vietnamese partners want to install Club missiles (on the frigates), we are ready to provide them with these weapons," Rudenko was cited by the news agency as saying.

Russia is due to deliver two Project 11661 or Gepard-class frigates to Vietnam in 2016. These frigates are equipped with Russian Uran anti-ship missiles, according to the report. Vietnam is likely to ask for Club missiles, which can be used to hit both surface and ground targets.


- Russia ready to supply Club-class missiles for Vietnam-bound frigates | Russia Beyond The Headlines)
 
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well lets hope that this is more than a normal visit and joint-training program :)
 

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Decisive Moment for Vietnam as Trans-Pacific Partnership is Agreed



Vietnam Right Now , News Analysis, Staff, Posted: Oct 07, 2015


It’s the largest regional trade pact ever agreed – and according to some economists, Vietnam could emerge as the biggest winner.

After five years of secret negotiations, and some tense 11th hour brinkmanship at the final session in Atlanta, twelve countries finally signed up to the Trans-Pacific Partnership.

The reduction in tariffs would give Vietnamese exporters much freer access to the giant markets of the United States and Japan, and spur a substantial increase in economic growth.

Pro-democracy activists also hope the pact will tie Vietnam much closer to the United States, and make it more responsive to criticism over human rights abuses and restrictions on the rights of workers.

Vietnam’s inclusion can also be seen as a major rebuff to China, given the pact’s expected role as a bulwark against Chinese economic and political influence in the region.

President Obama made clear the strategic goals of the pact when he welcomed the agreement.

“When more than 95 percent of our potential customers live outside our borders, we can’t let countries like China write the rules of the global economy,” he said. “We should write those rules, opening new markets to American products while setting high standards for protecting workers and preserving our environment.”

The TPP first needs to be ratified by the legislatures in the participating countries and that promises to be a hard fought and drawn out process – particularly in the United States.

There is opposition in the US from both sides of the political spectrum.

Some Democrats argue the TPP gives too much power to Wall Street and big corporations. Some Republicans will be loath to grant such a major foreign policy achievement to President Obama in the run up to a presidential election.

Vietnam’s critics in Congress can also be expected to argue against the inclusion of such a low wage, authoritarian country without further concessions on labour rights, religious freedom and government transparency.

That’s likely to put further pressure on Hanoi, which has already shown signs of mitigating its repression of government critics as the negotiations reached their climax.

Some leading dissidents have been released from prison since last year, although harassment and sometimes violent attacks have continued against bloggers and other activists.

Vietnamese officials were quick to welcome the agreement. The economic benefits of the deal are seen as so overwhelming that even Communist Party factions that traditionally favour China, and are wary of US influence, are thought to have come round.

“It will help increase Vietnam’s exports, foreign investment and an impetus for the country to change its development model,” said Dr. Vo Tri Thanh, deputy director of the Central Institute for Economic Management, in comments quoted by Tuoi Tre newspaper.

“The TPP comes just in time as Vietnam needs a motivation for changes that will lead to sustainable development.”

There are predictions that Vietnam’s apparel exports to the United States, currently worth $11 billion, could quadruple over the next decade.

The TPP’s rules on state owned enterprises could also challenge the state’s current dominance of the garment sector and give a boost to privatisation in other areas as well.

However, Vietnam remains something of an anomaly amongst its new TPP partners.

It is the poorest country, with some of the lowest labour costs, and with a communist government that remains at odds with the values and principles of the driving force behind the TPP, the United States.

Some analysts have pointed out that Vietnam reneged on some of its commitments towards liberalisation after joining the World Trade Organisation a decade ago.

They argue that this time it can expect closer monitoring on the commitments it makes as it will be a more direct trading partner with the US.

The hope of some reformers is that the deal will mark a decisive step as Vietnam seeks to align itself – politically, economically and strategically – more closely to the United States, and further from the ever less welcome embrace of China.


http://newamericamedia.org/2015/10/...am-as-trans-pacific-partnership-is-agreed.php
 
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On a exercise, technicians seen loading unguided rockets onto a fighter helicopter.

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Pentagon, September 27 to October 3
Vietnam, US begin 6th Defence Policy Dialogue talking on security situation.

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Deputy Defence Minister Nguyen Chi Vinh and US Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defence Amy Searight

 
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