xiao qi
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Right !Meh, would not align with the US at any cost. The lessons from Ukraine, Philippines and even South Vietnam were learned very well.
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Right !Meh, would not align with the US at any cost. The lessons from Ukraine, Philippines and even South Vietnam were learned very well.
I would prefer this way:THAT IS THE KEY QUESTION !!!!!!
I'd go for number 3 with elements from the other 2 but without too much expectations from them since they are outside Vietnam's control.
Vietnam is starting a de facto lose alliance with USA, India, Japan, etc, but its only in the initial stages, can't say how far it can go and can't depend fully on others for your own defense, there is no such thing as a free lunch these days, but anything that can help has to be considered.
The way Vietnamese government doing right now - a mixed between the 1 and 3, minus the nuke.So which option you like, 1 or 3?
I would prefer this way:
1) maintain the strategy of hedging between America, China and Russia
2) establish quasi military alliance with Japan
3) increase Vietnam’s military capabilities, including build-up a potential nuclear deterrent
The way Vietnamese government doing right now - a mixed between the 1 and 3, minus the nuke.
As I said, where's the US when their "allies" needed them the most, after they provoke a conflict with their huge neighbor following their master order? Ukraine, Georgia, Philippines are prime examples.
Vietnam - US relationship might get warmer these days, but I doubt that we would drop everything to be another lap dog for the US.
I would prefer this way:
1) maintain the strategy of hedging between America, China and Russia
2) establish quasi military alliance with Japan
3) increase Vietnam’s military capabilities, including build-up a potential nuclear deterrent
All you have done was insult other countries without addressing the core issue: How will Viet Nam stand against an aggressive and more militarily powerful China ? Alone ? Are you joking ?
Regarding the Vietnam War, the alliance with the US gave South Viet Nam some time of independence from the disaster that was communism. The SVN-US alliance fought for partition. The NVN-China-Soviet fought for a unitary Viet Nam. If the SVN-US alliance chose to fight for the same goal -- a unitary Viet Nam -- the NVA would have been wiped out in short order. Would China have committed troops against US troops ? We will never know.
Insulting the US and other US-allied countries is not going to help Viet Nam one bit.
No I don´t forget India. But Japan shares more with Vietnam many things in common, not only because there are only 3 countries in the world knowing the Chinese in and out: Vietnam, Japan and Korea.You forgot India next to Japan. India can do much more for VN than Japan..
Many people forget the US-Philippines defence treaty does not cover the islands in dispute in the South China sea. actually I really wonder why the Chinese do not dare to take more islands from the Philippines.I agree, but there are benefits about getting closer to USA, Its not a black and white thing where you go all the way or not or whether you become dependent on them or not. I think its worth it to explore the options that bring something positive. And yes, PH is a good example of how not to depend on someone else, I was very surprised that USA let the chinese take Scarborough Shoal. That was a big mistake (I attribute that to Obama lack of balls)..
no objection to India and Israel supporting our military build-up. but I believe, except Japan, no other country in the world will go an extra mile to build a military alliance with Vietnam. there are still too much sensibilities in Vietnam toward America, so I think it is not an option right now.I certainly would not mind some Jericho 2B missiles with a few nuclear warheads for the ultimate deterrence.
Hell, Israel will sell anything if there is enough money on the table. North Korea too. I think USA would look the other way.
Well, back in 1974, the US ordered South Vietnam not to fight the Chinese to defend and take back the Paracel Islands, so I don't think it's a surprise. China is always a bigger and better "partner" for the US than Vietnam. There's no guarantee that the US will not betray their allies to gain benefits from a "supposed" enemy like China.I agree, but there are benefits about getting closer to USA, Its not a black and white thing where you go all the way or not or whether you become dependent on them or not. I think its worth it to explore the options that bring something positive. And yes, PH is a good example of how not to depend on someone else, I was very surprised that USA let the chinese take Scarborough Shoal. That was a big mistake (I attribute that to Obama lack of balls).
You have not provided a single credible proposal on how singular Viet Nam could stand against China.I do like your input in this thread but i have to say that you take this in the wrong way here
All i say is facts that already happen. And since you clearly declare that the goal of the the US in Indochina is about partition then its totally natural that they will lose. The war for VN independence start way before the US participation and the goal has always been one whole VN, not one half or one third. And because you say that the NVA will be wiped out by the US if, a very big IF, US change their objectives then i guess i can say that the 13 colonies will be erased from the map if UK want to deploy all the troops from the other part of the world to North America. Should France and Spain deploy troops to have a showdown with UK for the colonies ? GOD KNOW. So dont presume that whatever happen in VN is the result of this and that and if you change it then US can win. History and military situations dont work like that. And even if it was right then its the faults and the lack of capability of the nation planners to implant it, simple as that.
sis Vietnam seeking partners in peace and war time is not a new invention but goes back to the time of the Nguyen and Trinh´s, when China still had a closed door policy. look, China despite possessing great resources and having mass of people is seeking military tie with Russia, staging military exercises with the Russians in the south china sea, hence I don´t see why we hesitate here and there not to play the same game.Vietnam shouldn't believe "so-called ally" of the US. Us or Russia, China only did for their interests, not for Vietnamese's interests. They can sell us when they want.
@Viet i don't oppose if we view Us as a counterpart, but not our ally. I talk it many times on PDF. See our history clearly, We saw China as a brother, and 1972, they sell us. We saw Russia as the ally, and 1988, they didn't do anything when we had the war with China, even 1979, our treaty with Russia is an only paper draft, no more. Japan, They have history affairs with China from WW2, Our purpose is our lands, not fight for US or Japan.sis Vietnam seeking partners in peace and war time is not a new invention but goes back to the time of the Nguyen and Trinh´s, when China still had a closed door policy. look, China despite possessing great resources and having mass of people is seeking military tie with Russia, staging military exercises with the Russians in the south china sea, hence I don´t see why we hesitate here and there not to play the same game.
I´m not saying we should pursue a military alliance with the US now, but excluding it from the beginning is not wise. because in doing so it is helping China in her strategic calculus how to defeat Vietnam.
Correction:@Viet i don't oppose if we view Us as a counterpart, but not our ally. I talk it many times on PDF. See our history clearly, We saw China as a brother, and 1972, they sell us. We saw Russia as the ally, and 1988, they didn't do anything when we had the war with China, even 1979, our treaty with Russia is an only paper draft, no more. Japan, They have history affairs with China from WW2, Our purpose is our lands, not fight for US or Japan. At that time of the Trinh- Nguyen, Chinese is weak and was defeated by Mãn Châu, their king even tried to run to Vietnam but he was arrested in Myanmar
You have not provided a single credible proposal on how singular Viet Nam could stand against China.
Citing facts and using them rhetorically gives a facade of sophistication but in the end, that is all it is -- a facade. There is no depth. No substance. Nothing but working people would call 'bitching'.
The Vietnam War ended in 1975, for the US, it was in 1972 with the program 'Vietnamization' of the war. I fled in 1975 and from the US, I read news of the terrible atrocities the communists committed on their fellow Viets and the tragedy that was the 'boat people'. When we returned to look for our grandparents who died in a 're-education' center, I learned that the communists often give animal bones to families for burial. We decided to leave them to rest wherever they were. For Viets who worships their ancestors, many now prays to cow bones. Then from 1975 on, Viet Nam continued to descend into the shithole that was the communist experiment. How did that worked out for you ?
History is linear. A chain of cause and effects where one effect is a cause. If something happened yesterday or last yr, I will be inclined to take that into consideration when I make my decision on what to do. But the Vietnam War ended decades ago. The US have had several Presidents since 1975. The Vietnamese government's leadership are no longer communist and more pragmatic. Too many changes occurred. There is a real threat to the land that you live in but now YOU want to hang onto an event that you have practically no ties to it other than the fact that you live in the country where that event occurred.
Napoleon said that to know a country's geography is to know its foreign policy. Nappy was not the first to recognize that truth but the best to explained it. China is looking to put a sharp knife to Viet Nam's economic throat TODAY but you are focused on what happened over 40 yrs ago.
Good luck.