What's new

Vietnam Defence Forum

Vietnam Between China and the United States: The Next Balancing Test Beckons
Upcoming visits next month by US and Chinese leaders will test Hanoi’s balancing skills.

By Ngo Di Lan
October 16, 2015

thediplomat_2015-10-15_20-37-52-386x257.jpg



Once again, Vietnam’s diplomatic balancing skills will be put to the test this November when Vietnamese leaders are expected to host Chinese President Xi Jinping and U.S. President Barack Obama within days of each other. This will be Obama’s very first trip to Vietnam, while Xi’s trip will also be the first of any Chinese president since 2005. Since Vietnam has been committed to maintaining cordial relations with both powers even against the backdrop of the increasingly tense situation surrounding territorial disputes in the South China Sea (SCS), this November will prove to be a delicate and defining moment for Vietnamese great-power management.

U.S-Vietnam ties have been warming considerably in the past several years, with multiple high-level visits of leaders from both countries culminating in General Secretary Nguyen Phu Trong’s unprecedented visit to the United States this July. The result was the historic U.S-Vietnam Joint Vision Statement, which provides a crucial framework within which U.S-Vietnam relations could continue to develop in the longer term. Within this context, Obama’s trip to Hanoi would only consolidate and deepen these ties further.

However, obviously this time Obama will not be in Hanoi to push for the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) since the negotiating parties had already reached an agreement and the Vietnamese National Assembly would almost definitely ratify the TPP agreement. At a moment when China is rapidly building up artificial islands in the SCS while the U.S. has announced plans for maritime patrols within the territorial waters of these islands, it seems certain that China and the SCS territorial disputes will feature prominently the talks in Hanoi.

Despite much optimism, the pro-U.S. camp in Hanoi would probably be disappointed as it is highly improbable that Obama’s visit would result in any “game-changing” agreements. It would be even more unrealistic to expect an “alliance” of some sort between Hanoi and Washington formed during this trip, even amidst China’s increasingly assertive efforts to create a fait accompli in the SCS. After all, it is not clear whether such an overt alliance is in the interest of both the United States and Vietnam as it would surely aggravate China and thus destabilize the situation further. Furthermore, the United States seems to be reluctant to formally commit itself to an alliance with any country that it deems “politically uncontrollable,” having recently rejected a mutual defense treaty proposal from Gulf States. Vietnam certainly does not fall into the category of countries within the American “sphere of influence.”

From Hanoi’s perspective, “leaning to one side” risks eliminating diplomatic flexibility. Besides, in any case, an alliance is probably not an ironclad guarantee of security vis-à-vis China, as Vietnam’s previous alliance with the Soviet Union had shown. Nevertheless, it is reasonable to expect that Obama’s trip would still boost defense ties between two countries considerably, perhaps even leading to a further lifting of the ban on lethal weapons on Vietnam that has already been eased. Moreover, Obama could use the occasion to garner diplomatic support for his more assertive patrolling scheme while moving Vietnam further away from China’s orbit. If at least some of these outcomes do materialize, the trip would at least bolster U.S position in Asia while giving Hanoi a stronger hand to drive a harder bargain vis-à-vis Beijing.

Unlike Obama’s much expected trip to Vietnam, Xi’s trip comes at a troubling time in Vietnam-China relations. Relations have soured somewhat in recent years as China became much more aggressive in asserting its control over the islands in the SCS. In the past few years, Xi has probably done more to revise the status quo in the SCS than his predecessors in two decades. Most notoriously, in May 2014, China deployed the HYSY-981 oil rig within Vietnam’s exclusive economic zone (EEZ) in the face of vigorous protest from both the Vietnamese government and the Vietnamese people.

While China unilaterally withdrew the oil rig after two months, the diplomatic crisis did much to undermine strategic trust between two governments and provoked a serious internal debate within elite circles in Hanoi. Since then, China has only accelerated its land reclamation efforts, with airstrips being spotted on some islands that could be used to eventually declare and/or enforce an Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) over the entire SCS sometime in the near future. These moves have convinced Vietnam that China is not sincerely committed to agreements it has already signed such as the Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea (DOC).

Given all this, it seems that Xi will be travelling to Hanoi with a near-impossible mission: to somehow put its smaller neighbor back in line and “reset” relations with Vietnam. Chinese leaders know full well that Vietnam will not simply turn into Japan or the Philippines overnight. But over the long term, given what is unfolding in the SCS, no one can predict how close Vietnam would align with the U.S camp. And it is difficult to see how any Chinese president at this point can seriously convince Hanoi that China is merely protecting its legitimate interests in the SCS and that Hanoi should play along with Beijing. Thus no one should expect any “U-turn” in Vietnamese policy toward China after Xi’s trip.

Nevertheless, in the short term, Xi’s trip could still repair China-Vietnam ties to some extent and perhaps divert Vietnamese attention away from the current territorial dispute to focus on opportunities for cooperation between the two countries. In that vein, it would not come as a surprise if Beijing provides some economic deals and favorable loans to Hanoi during Xi’s trip. After all, such economic incentives are always welcomed and would encourage Vietnam to at least refrain from moving closer toward the United States in the short term and continue its current “tightrope walking” strategy.

So far, Vietnam has been committed to walking a diplomatic tightrope between the two superpowers, delicately balancing one against another to reap the benefits while avoiding being trapped into a diplomatic cul-de-sac. If all goes well this November, “tightrope walking” will most likely consolidate as Vietnam’s preferred grand strategy for the foreseeable future, which would leave room for more creative policy options. In the longer term, this strategy could lay the foundation for a regional order around multilateral institutions and great powers bargains, which may offer a more promising future for small and medium powers in the region.

Ngo Di Lan is a PhD candidate in Politics at Brandeis University, where he focuses on U.S foreign policy and U.S-China relations. He is also a research associate at the Center for International Studies (SCIS) at the University of Social Sciences and Humanities in Ho Chi Minh City.

Vietnam Between China and the United States: The Next Balancing Test Beckons | The Diplomat
 
SA 2 and AAA on the way to maintaince facilities
 

Attachments

  • maintaing SA-2 launcher.jpg
    maintaing SA-2 launcher.jpg
    84.2 KB · Views: 58
Technically on paper , it should be possible to penetrate Type 96 ERA and armor within reasonable range (around 50-75m in a regular conscript hand) In practice it also penetrate M1 Abrams both American verison and export. About the license production , i think that since we got the Rpg-29 as SCT-29 , this round have a good chance too
if true, that is not too bad.
On the side way , 130mm brass case , with a change in powder charge we can use this in variety of range and attack angle
hard job. looks like a scene in the WW 1 and 2. where is the attilery position? I assume either close to chinese or cambodian border, isn´t it? though the situation on the western front is peaceful. more or less, unless some khmer nationalists intentionally start causing tensions.
130mm-ammuniton-jpg.265191
 
Last edited:
Two events, Laos and Cambodia. the two immediate and strategic important neighbors. on the same day. seeking ways to increase cooperations in defence and economy ties. coincidence or not.

October 19, 2015.
Receiving Lieutenant General Suvon Luongbunmi, Chief of the General Staff of the Lao People’s Army.

image001.jpg



Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Sen (L) greets Senior Lt. General Nguyen Chi Vinh in Phnom Penh, Cambodia, Oct. 19, 2015. Cambodia and Vietnam held the first Defense Policy Dialogue.
134729929_14453030812771n.jpg
 
Well that is classifield :0........but i assume its on some firing range . About our Southwest front , peace would be desired but shall the situaition turn out to be worse , our 4th Corp will response within the quickest time possible .

For now this is the only T-72 verison in Vietnam service.......There maybe "more" :v
 

Attachments

  • ARV base on T-72.jpg
    ARV base on T-72.jpg
    131.3 KB · Views: 79
probably already posted, but anyway here again with clearer images. Domestic made landing ship, Ro ro 5612 class.
nhung-khi-tai-quan-su-viet-nam-da-xuat-khau_211650469.jpg


nhung-khi-tai-quan-su-viet-nam-da-xuat-khau_211654156.jpg




in an interview, Lieutenant-General Le Huy Vinh, commander of the Airforce, reveals Vietnam soon deploying SPYDER, a Israeli made short and medium surface to air missiles system.
viet-nam-chinh-thuc-xac-nhan-dat-mua-he-thong-tlpk-toi-tan-spyder.jpg


spyder-tpk.jpg




starting Q4 2015, Russian aerospace company OPK delivers automatic take-off and landing systems to Vietnam SU-30 bombers, RSBN-4NM & PRMG-76UM. Enabling the bombers to conduct warfare days and nights in all weather conditions.
antd-Su-30MK2-Viet-Nam.jpg


Vietnam+Air+Force+Su-30+MKV+fighter+jet+aircraft+r77+73+4+12+aa+bvr+aam++%281%29.jpg
 
Night vision goggles have been produced and equipped on a vast array of infantry and crew served weapon , also been put on the NSV on the M113
 

Attachments

  • night vision SPG-9.jpg
    night vision SPG-9.jpg
    112.2 KB · Views: 74
one of a few weapon that Vietnam export , so far mostly non-lethal though
 

Attachments

  • tear gas grenade.jpg
    tear gas grenade.jpg
    10.3 KB · Views: 420
one of a few weapon that Vietnam export , so far mostly non-lethal though
it stands "police department" E112-H56. but what is it?
tear-gas-grenade-jpg.266755




changing topic

more a economic news, but...as the army owns the company. Have I missed anything, or has the tension in the SC Sea reduced significantly?

instead of investing into new warships and submarines, the military run Telecom Company Viettel wants to pour incredible $1 billion into Tanzania´s 3G mobile phone market. No risk no fun, say the people of Viettel obviously. with $10 billion revenue and $1.4 billion pre-tax profit at last year 2014, the company wants further expansion, becoming a major player on the market.

A company owned by Vietnam’s military will put $1 billion into Tanzania’s mobile market - Quartz

76b41a3e82c40055d4c5e4a8e4bd0375_xxru.jpg

Viettel vice president Lê Đăng Dũng in talk with Jakaya Kikwete, the president of Tanzania.

tanzania.jpg

where is Tanzania? I believe many Vietnamese have never heard of the country.
 
Last edited:
3 October 2015
Japan defence minister to visit Vietnam over South China Sea dispute


Vietnam protests Chinese lighthouse projects on disputed isles - © Ritchie B. Tongo / Pool, EPA

Tokyo (dpa) - Japan's Defence Minister Gen Nakatani will travel to Vietnam in early November to discuss China's territorial claims in disputed parts of the South China Sea, Japanese media reported Friday.

Nakatani's talks with counterpart Phung Quang Thanh will come amid rising tensions in the region after the United States told South-East Asian countries that it would deploy warships to what China claims as its territorial waters in disputed areas of the sea, Kyodo News agency reported, citing Japanese diplomatic sources.

During the meeting, Nakatani is also expected to explain Japan's laws enacted in late September that will expand the role of the military abroad, Kyodo said.

China claims nearly all of the South China Sea. Brunei, Malaysia, Taiwan, Vietnam and the Philippines all have competing claims with China over the key shipping lane and potentially resource-rich area.

The Japanese minister is also likely to discuss his country's support for Vietnam's efforts to build up its own military capacity. During his visit, he is thought likely to stop by a naval base in Cam Ranh Bay in central Vietnam, which faces the South China Sea.

Nakatani has expressed interest in attending a meeting of defence chiefs from the 10-member Association of South-East Asian Nations plus Australia, China, India, Japan, South Korea, New Zealand, Russia and the United States, to be held November 3 to 5 in Malaysia.

The Vietnam visit would follow that meeting, the report said.

dpa news - Japan defence minister to visit Vietnam over South China Sea dispute
 
President Park should publicly apologize for South Korea's sexual violence in Vietnam
By Norm Coleman

Published October 13, 2015
FoxNews.com

1444758863486.jpg

South Korean President Park Geun-hye, center, gives a salute during the 67th Armed Forces Day at Gyeryongdae, South Korea's main compound in Gyeryong City, South Korea, Oct. 1, 2015. (Kim Hee-chul/Pool Photo via AP)

This week’s state visit by South Korean President Park Geun-hye presents an opportunity to assess the strength of the alliance between our two countries. At the same time, it presents an obligation to challenge our ally when its behavior does not fully align with American values.

The United States as a country has a strong legacy of embracing mistakes and atoning for them. President Park should embrace this uniquely American value and publicly apologize to the thousands of Vietnamese women who were forcibly raped by troops under her father’s command during the Vietnam War.

Forty years ago, Park Chung-hee – the current president’s father and a former general, led over 320,000 of his U.S.-allied troops into the War in Vietnam. Throughout the war, South Korean soldiers violently raped and sexually assaulted thousands of young women, some as young as 13 and 14 years of age. Many of these women bore children as a result of these assaults. Today, between 5,000 and 30,000 children of mixed Korean-Vietnamese ancestry, called the “Lai Dai Han,” live at the margins of Vietnamese society.

When my good friend Senator John McCain recounts the horrors he survived during his captivity in Vietnam, he often talks about the deep emotional and physical scars war leaves on the lives of those impacted by it. What happened to these women, so many of whom lost their innocence at the hands of South Korean soldiers, is one of the great untold tragedies of the Vietnam War.

It’s time to lift the veil of silence and allow those violated women – only 800 of whom are estimated to be alive today – to share their stories.

Since my time as a member of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, I have always fought and stood up for those who have been victims of systemic violence around the world. These women, the mothers of the Lai Dai Han, deserve to have the world bear witness to their testimonies. After decades of raising their children and grandchildren in the face of tremendous adversity, they deserve to be heard.

As a father, I can only imagine the heartache and pain these poor young women and their families had to endure. We cannot erase the memory of what happened -- but an acknowledgement by the South Korean government of their suffering and an apology for the sexual violence perpetrated by their troops, would be a welcome step in easing the pain.

President Park is one of the most powerful women in the world. Certainly, it is within her power to extend a full and public apology for the crimes committed by her father’s soldiers against so many innocent women. Failing to make such an unequivocal apology would only undermine President Park’s moral authority as she presses Japan to apologize for the sexual violence perpetrated against South Korean “comfort women” during World War II.

Earlier this week, I added my name to a petition started by Nguyen Thi Bach Tuyet on Change.org calling on President Park to apologize to the victims of South Korea’s systemic sexual violence in Vietnam.

Ms. Nguyen has led a tragic life. Both she and her mother were raped and impregnated by South Korean soldiers. After her mother passed away, Ms. Nguyen raised her mother’s son alongside her own family, fled an abusive husband, and started a new life in rural Vietnam. Her life has not been easy, but the decision to apologize to her should be.

On Thursday, I am honored to speak on behalf of Ms. Nguyen and the thousands of women like her during an event hosted by Voices of Vietnam at the National Press Club. This event is the best chance yet to bring the world’s attention to what happened to these women and their families.

It’s time to lift the veil of silence and allow those violated women – only 800 of whom are estimated to be alive today – to share their stories.

The United States has a great history of looking back in history, bearing witness to our mistakes, and atoning for what happened. It is precisely this that has made our country a beacon of hope and freedom around the world.

President Park should take advantage of the opportunity she has been presented to acknowledge the suffering of these innocent women, make a full apology for what happened, and to begin to work to make it right.

Republican Norm Coleman represented Minnesota in the U.S. Senate from 2003-2009. During his six years in the Senate, he served on the Foreign Relations Committee as Chair of the Western Hemisphere and ranking member of the Near East subcommittees. Senator Coleman currently serves as a board member of the National Endowment for Democracy, and on the Advisory Council for the U.S. Global Leadership Coalition.
 
Vietnam Nuclear Ambition

as some chinese posters here threaten Vietnam with nuclear holocaust, true or not, joke or not, I post here as response the current nuclear situation, analyse and future prospect.

(1) does Vietnam have uranium deposit?
yes, the new descovered mine located in the province of Quảng Nam has a capacity of 100,000-130,000 tons a year.

Sắp khai thác uranium tại Quảng Nam | Khoa Học - KhoaHoc.tv

(2) the government has a very ambitious nuclear program, peaceful, with the domestic market reaching $50 billion (says US Secretary of State John Kerry) or $100 billion (US Under Secretary Rose Gottemoeller).

The U.S.-Vietnam Nuclear Deal | National Review Online

(3) under the US-Vietnam 123 nuclear agreement, Vietnam can either buy nuclear fuels on international market, or enrich domestically. Yes, it is interesting to note the US allow Vietnam, but forbid many others from enrichment.

Senate Panel OKs Vietnam 123 Agreement With 30-Year Limit - Nuclear Energy Institute

(4) Under which circumstances will Vietnam likely develop, acquire, deploy nuclear weapons?

Nuclear Power in Vietnam: International Responses and Future Prospects - American Academy of Arts & Sciences

In the context of these rising tensions, the possibility that Vietnam’s leaders could be tempted to keep the nuclear option open should not be completely discounted, despite the country’s historic record of forgoing the development of WMD capabilities. It is thought-provoking to combine what we know about Vietnam’s long-term strategic goals with what we know about proliferation patterns, to foresee scenarios in which developing a nuclear-weapons capability could become a much more attractive option in the future, despite the constraints, including the backlash that could be expected from neighbors and partners.
The following events, none of which are far-fetched, and some of which could conceivably occur together, would likely create very powerful proliferation triggers in a country with an expanding nuclear infrastructure, even in a country with strong nonproliferation credentials:

  • An escalation of maritime disputes in the East and South China Seas, with China becoming increasingly assertive;
  • The continued growth of a powerful groundswell of nationalistic anti-China sentiment in Vietnam;
  • Evidence that the asymmetric military relationship between China and Vietnam is rapidly widening, despite Vietnam’s efforts to expand its national defense capabilities;
  • Domestic unrest in Vietnam, sparked by VCP efforts to implement the major domestic reforms necessary to tackle massive endemic corruption and restructure the debt-laden public sector;
  • Strong indications that China and the United States are working toward a rapprochement, leading to a major decline in U.S. influence in East Asia (escalating U.S.-Russia tensions, if a long-term development, could make this more likely);
  • Suspicion that Japan and South Korea are developing indigenous nuclear weapons programs, amid entrenched nationalism directed against each other and against China; this trigger would be even stronger if nuclear breakout by Japan and/or South Korea was confirmed;
  • Persistent failure of the ADMM and ADMM Plus and other ASEAN institutions to address hard security challenges, and little hope that this will change;
  • The emergence of a pro-nuclear weapons lobby in Vietnam among political elites and the scientific community; and
  • Clear signals from one or more of Hanoi’s diplomatic partners that they would not oppose the development of Vietnamese nuclear latency or nuclear weapons, based on the calculation that a nuclear-capable Vietnam could form part of a broader Asian counterweight to China, especially in the context of declining U.S. power and influence.

(5) does Vietnam have experiences in nuclear power?
yes, more than 50 years. a massive nuclear program is under development. in total, Vietnam plans to build up to 10,000 megawatts of nuclear power capacity by 2030, with the first reactors to come on line in the next decade. Russian, Japanese firms will construct the first 4 reactors.

Vietnamese to take part in design of new nuclear reactor - News VietNamNet

20150526070213-scitech-reactor.jpg
 
Last edited:
(6) a nuclear device needs a delivery system. does Vietnam have or develop balistic or cruise missiles?
- R-17E (Scud B) range 300km, while some rumours say the range has extended to close 1,000km.

qp_nam_r17e_01.jpg



- P-5 Pyatyorka (Shadock) turbojet-powered cruise missile, range 550km.
shaddock-missile-vietnam-asitimes.jpg



- 3M54 Klub-S cruise missile, range 300km, onboard of the Kilo submarine fleet.
11174521_731000003689629_2603870280551441228_o-134917_copy1.jpg


all of them are nuclear capable on paper. how about the future development?

- US$683 million Vietnam Space Center under construction. key topics: developing satellites and long range missiles.
space.jpg
 

Country Latest Posts

Back
Top Bottom