Using Tejas as a comparison base, evaluate AMCA timeline to be and what is required to make it happe

[Piper]

AMCA is in premilinary design phase, so how could design be frozen in this stage.



ADA is asking for 4 Billion or 25000 Crore Rupees for the development, and prototype building and the period of 15 years for IAF but the value could vary with the change in the currency value. However its high time when IN should take decision, and if she have interest, the N-AMCA prototype should be developed first.

At this stage per unit cost could not be calculated.




Why would ADA need the help of Dassault, when she don't have any 5th Gen fighter plane plan. What ADA would need the help is with the GE for its F414 INS EPE engine. How could AMCA cut the future Rafale order, when the AMCA is 15 year to be ready, and both are apples and oranges with the difference of whole 1 generation. French don't have any comparatively propulsion at the moment, and I am highly optimistic for the GTRE to complete the Kaveri project by 2024 and if everything goes well than Kaveri-2 could be launched but 414 EPE is the safe bet at the moment for the AMCA. For the Avionics its the BEL/Cassidian which is likely to get orders and consultancy for the development of LRUs and the EW Suites, with few sensors from SAAB tech.



French members would agree on this


And for the US help, ADA is designing AMCA not F-35

Don't be so snarky! My post was inquisitive in nature not declaratory.

It is not altogether far fetched to assume that Rafales can undercut AMCA as there is little evidence at this stage that India would be successfully able to develop and induct full spectrum stealth in AMCA and barring stealth the more advanced and iterative versions of Rafales can successfully compete with AMCA in the assigned mission profiles if AMCA is delayed as is the norm with Indian projects.

 

[Abba_Dabba_Jabba]

Timeline of AMCA also depends upon the timeline and work-share in FGFA, coz AMCA will inherit many features from FGFA. Also Israel looks like a real partner in this project and we have all the right to be optimistic, because LCA project has been a lesson to ADA & HAL.

Plus we should look at other projects e.g. ALH, LCH the way they all are now executed after Dhruv, so the timeline will 9-11 years for the 1st prototype and next 4-5 for induction.

 

[911]

I failed in class 9, finished MS being among top 10 in a class of 170, and doing PhD now.

Your words hurt my fragile ego.

We need to first define what comes under intelligence, before we start measuring

 

[knight11]

Don't be so snarky! My post was inquisitive in nature not declaratory.

It is not altogether far fetched to assume that Rafales can undercut AMCA as there is little evidence at this stage that India would be successfully able to develop and induct full spectrum stealth in AMCA and barring stealth the more advanced and iterative versions of Rafales can successfully compete with AMCA in the assigned mission profiles if AMCA is delayed as is the norm with Indian projects.

LOLZ !! That depends on the understanding of the person to understand what really is a 5th Gen Fighter plane. 5th Gen is not a fighter plane itself rather the whole system in which that plane is just one subsystem; it is the whole combination of network, Satellite, UAVs, AEW EC, ground radar, vehicles to ground troops acting as sensor, sensor fussion, high speed link to give the live battlefield map, battlefield management system so that all the subsystems works in coordination, and as a one single system, which is what 5th Gen warfare is all about. That's why you heard that F-35 a fifth Gen fighter plane cannot fly, without updating its flight data using US satellite network, from US Servers.

OR

Keep yourself stick to the peculiar shaped fighter plane, with the skin of Radar absorbent material in black Color and have internal bay to house ammunition.

Don't be so snarky! My post was inquisitive in nature not declaratory.

I gave information to you what you asked for, and kindly read my post again, and if you unable to digest and still find my post snarky, don't quote me again.

 

[PARIKRAMA]

Apologies in advance for a long post

Well AMCA program needs to be understood from the perspective of our MIC development. If i consider this picture from below

Its very clear that the list of features outlines a requirement which cannot be fulfilled by our present MIC.
So lets take a simple perspective case by case..

Case 1
LCA Case for MIC Development

See how across India different work centers contributed to LCA program

As you see there is a cluster of institutions, PSUs, Educational Universities, Private Sector etc scattered Pan India .

From this, we are now trying to evolve further

As you see the key supply chain model from present set up is slowly being moved to future supply chain model where ADA outsources most of the work comprising from component manufacturing to sub assemblies to assemblies to the Indian MIC which came up during the course of LCA development and dedicate itself more as a system integrator role.

This entire chain for a full fledged working model requires a demonstration to see the potential issues, teething problem and optimization.

One way would be another LCA Tejas line in private sector .. Another would be development of a advanced variant of LCA Tejas program known as Mark 2. That would act as a test bench for seeing how much MIC has developed to cater to 4++ -4.5 generation jet needs.

The present situation dictates that this supply chain model will be at peak efficiency in about a decade from now or around 2025-26.

Case 2 .
Proposed FGFA based MIC development
As we all know FGFA plan is going ahead, its important to understand what benefits FGFA program may potentially bring to India as part of localisation and learning and upgradation for MIC. The FGFA is based on Russian Developed PAKFA with multiple customization and integration of French and Israeli tech.


Chiefly India could gain

• Design + up-gradation of a platform PAKFA into FGFA based on specific needs of IAF
• Development experience with a strong emphasis on upgrading designers, engineers and technicians.
• Expansion of our aircraft manufacturing capabilities by the way of introducing local component manufacturing, sub assemblies and assemblies for FGFA and let HAL be the integrator along with kits directly procured from Sukhoi.
• Very importantly, Creation of specialized vendors for integrating and producing FGFA technology. These specialized vendors in fact upgrades the capability of our MIC.
• The above points along with experience will let us expand the design of aircraft and create more variants based on needs and more technological up-gradation.

Now this whole plan implies FGFA in Indian colors will be around 2025-26 types.. The production variant with economies of scale and localisation aspect benefit should happen over next 7-10 years past 2025-26 implying the MIC should be at peak efficiency around 2032-35 timeline.

Case 3:
Proposed Rafale MII

We all know Rafale is a cutting edge 4.5++ Gen aircraft. It possess a cutting edge in terms of technology which is superior to present fleet of IAF/IN and will be just a notch below FGFA in terms of operational capability. So a credible question to ask perhaps is what benefit the Make In India will bring to our own Indian MIC?

The answer lies with perhaps some assumptions and some inferences.

• The credible offset package in terms of flyaway jets deal entails a manufacturing line in India
• It also talks about help to certain programs in India like LCA where naval variant has undercarriage issues. It is important to understand that AMCA will also have a naval varaint and thus LCA naval perfection is a prima facie requirement for AMCA naval requirement to prove in house design and performance.
• The private sector participation may see finally arrival of a industrial conglomerate like Mukesh Ambani owned Reliance group into aircraft manufacturing. Inspite of JV having a far more control by Dassault, there is a good chance of a high skill development for Indian aircraft manufacturing sector in terms of quality, newer methodology of building aircraft and efficient utilization of manpower and technology in sync to boost productivity and deliver credible results.
• The Supply chain of Dassault which comprises of 600+ vendors and OEMs which will set up shop in India to aid the localisation aspect and improve the whole chain of productivity.
• The outsourcing of many component manufacturing to local industry.
• The absorption of techniques, learning, manpower and cross absorption of best industry practices which brings benefits to our whole aircraft manufacturing MIC.
• The MII initiative is an economic venture designed to facilitate investment, foster innovation, enhance skill-development, protect intellectual property and build best-in-class manufacturing infrastructure with an aim to promote India as an investment destination.
  
• This implies the success of Rafale under MII and its successful transition of OEMs/suppliers to India also provides many other technological companies to invest in India.
• Quite simply this
• 

The credible question next is whats the timeline.. With economies of scale kicking in and proper localisation to give benefit, the production line has to work for at least 8-10 years from start of production. This gives a timeline post 2030 types for MIC to be in peak efficiency so 2030-32.


Case 4:
A side case of Su 30 MKI upgradation to Super program

• This case is parallel case to Rafale case.
• As such the last of MKIs would come in close to 2021-22 post which HAL would start upgrading the line for FGFA program.
• During the same period post 2022, the super program comes online with a fleet wide upgradation of Su30 MKI to Super Sukhoi MKI with technology closer to 4.5++ Gen and at a similar capability level as Rafales.
• As the MKI program has seen lots of localization, i am expecting the super upgrade will also see localisation elements coming in.
• This is inline with earlier MKI production in India and thus i see MKI supply chain private sector companies to see massive upgradation for catering to Super MKIs and then to FGFA.
• The peak effiency should again take at least 8-10 years post starting of Super upgrade program and thus should be around 2030-32 timeline.

Conclusion of 4 cases.
The peak MIC efficiencies
Case 1 LCA - 2025-26
Case 2: FGFA 2032-35
Case 3: Rafales 2030-32
Case 4: Super 30 MKI 2030-32
----------------------------------------------------

If you see, each of these are providing building blocks for a successful integration of modular elements which will be a part of AMCA plan.

Since AMCA itself is a 5th Gen project, the gap of our present MIC to required AMCA needs is pretty steep. And solution for that is developing peak efficiencies via these 4 cases point by point in order to successfully manufacture an indigenous 5th gen jet .

It leads me to believe that in the timeline of 2032-35, we should see a proper prototype development & testing plan incorporating the technologies which our MIC would be capable to deliver as per the 5th Gen needs.

Thus if i really add all this AMCA is approximately 2 decades away from now and naval variant add another 3-5 years.


@MilSpec @Abingdonboy @anant_s @Taygibay @Vauban @nair @SpArK @AUSTERLITZ @SrNair @cerberus

 

[AMCA]

Make in India initiative comes in as an advantage to our dream of converting AMCA into reality. There is an opportunity to scale up industry and beef up in house vendor base to suit future requirements. The progressive industrial ecosystem in the country will find 2nd and 3rd generation entrepreneurs taking up defence as a serious area of investment.

We are already seeing a race between top Indian industrial giants to pick up most number of goodies as they can in just months of issuing licenses. The national Skill development authority will make use of the infrastructure to pump in more skilled laborers.

 

[帅的一匹]

Which engine will AMCA apply?

 

[cerberus]

Which engine will AMCA apply?

Contender's are EJ200 & GE414IN

 

[knight11]

The Indian Navy too joined with the AMCA project with air force and other Indian state owned, Private aviation sectors and electric companies to build and assist the AMCA project. Foreign collaboration also sought for this project, since crucial hardware's like radar and engines comes from abroad only.

When did Indian Navy or IAF joined the project. AMCA is the brain child of ADA, and till now both IAF and IN haven't issued any ASQR for AMCA.

Currently three countries tries to seal the AMCA engine development program. US, France and England offers their known engine companies like General Electric, Snecma and Rolls Royce respectively. GE from America offered engine development based on the F 414 engine, and the Snecma announced the M 88 engine who powers the Rafale and the Rolls Royce also offered the EJ 200 engine for joint development with Kaveri.

As per last known reports, US company General Electric leads in the program. who already supplying F 404 engines for LCA Tejas. GE also set ups manufacturing plants in India to produce aviation engines in India.

Only GE and Rolls Royce fits the bill, because F414 EPE and Uprated EJ200 comes close to the requirement including active TVC program. Both GE and Rolls Royce earlier engine F414 and EJ200 are at par with EJ200 have more dry thrust, but read somewhere ADA have some doubt with the EJ200 metallurgical composition in the sea condition.

Some information's reported that, state owned LRDE is initiated a project to develop a small size air borne X band GaN based AESA radar for AMCA. LRDE already shows a model of AESA radar in last years Aero India exhibition. However the Uttam is not good for fifth generation fighters like AMCA.

It's reported earlier that, India and Israel working for a joint project to develop a GaN based AESA for fighter jets. However due to the importance of the program the information's are highly classified. It's clear the Radar too be a joint venture between either US or Israel.

I think Japan, could also be very useful with superior composite and optronics know how. She has all the pieces required for the 5th fighter plane including Industrial base, tech, Active Aesa Radars, Turbo fan, smart weapons know how.

The infrared based systems like IRST, missile warning systems, laser warning system also added internally in the AMCA. The IRST sensors are placed in all sides of the AMCA to provide full angle coverage like in Rafale and F 35. The proposed IRST system is work similar to the F 35's EOTS who shares the information's to friendly units like via the satellite and highly secured data links.

There is no development in IRST in the country, but if GOI could provide budget uninterruptedly, and backed by our forces IAF, IN, and RM could keep the import lobby check, its highly achievable. Both IAF, and IN would soon have their own Satellite, and integrated network and sensors-- important piece for the 5th gen warfare system.

AMCA also comes with self protection jammer system to jam enemy radar guided missiles from both air and ground. electronic counter measure systems to confuse the infrared guided missiles and a radar warning receiver too added to detect enemy radar frequency's.

OK but why not AESA Radar as Sensor and Jammer

It's Reported the AMCA will be ready by early 2020 or before and HAL starts flying the first flight of fully developed AMCA by 2021. with the initial low rate initial production by 2024. And the air force gets the first AMCA squad by 2025. If all things goes per schedule
source- Life of Soldiers: Update on AMCA

I will go with @Abingdonboy timeline but want to add something that its high time to all the R&D, integrator instititute to work hard because they could get large chunk of profit, if they could complete the delayed project on time e.g
GTRE could loose the turbofan engine order of more than 1000 units, and HAL can get large chunk of LUH Light utility helicopter for the civilian and the military orders for IA, IAF and IN.

3- What does an honest assessment of LCA teaches us for the AMCA? Be strict on honest & creative afterwards.

There are many but the most important is how our own people (import lobbist) for small profit tries every possible things to kill the indigenous effort to kill the home grown product.

 

[4GTejasBVR]

Engine optimization of F414 could be our choice I guess. But going with European engine could create more space for export orders in line with European countries. But first we need to induct

 

[GURU DUTT]

Contender's are EJ200 & GE414IN

sallaam saheb im no engineer but what i know is modi brought in parriker with eye on fast forwarding the work on tejas and AMCA specially for starters AMCA will have a tublour design for easy mass production with GE414 EP engines and israeli GaN based asea and EW suits and ECM & avionicks and weapons while indian engine , radar , avionicks and weapons will join in as and when they come with an internal IRST and LGP(F-35type) and the internal deadline for first prototype is late 2019 work is already going on in full swing on it since last one year

 

[mirage]

i am not qualified to comment on this topic , but as far as i have observed reading all the defense news and events , government's commitment and desire for such projects is of utmost importance . PSU's are all same and talent is there everywhere , it is the leadership which really impact the result .

 

[Bad Guy]

HAL Dhruv was also much delayed and was not a very good heli but on the platform, we developed LCH without very long delays.
We have got some experience in LCA project that what to do and what not to do. So, it may not be delayed much. Must be introduced to IAF before 2030.

 

[SrNair]

To be honest after LCA india should start and Medium Combat Aircraft leading to a heavy fighter in lines with SU 35. Jumping the gun is always a failure. A joint venture will help a lot and India should take deal of Pak Fa and use it on AMCA to finish it off in next 5-10 years as who knows given current pace of technological evolution stealth will become obsolete soon so pick up the pace or aim for something beyond in fringe science.

PAk Fa is a heavy fighter .AMCA is a medium multi role fighter .

HAL Dhruv was also much delayed and was not a very good heli but on the platform, we developed LCH without very long delays.
We have got some experience in LCA project that what to do and what not to do. So, it may not be delayed much. Must be introduced to IAF before 2030.

AMCA is definitely a challenge .But once we complete its development we will have a most modern industry in here.

 

[nang2]

I would bet that the timeline is length wise propotional to the length of this thread.