US Reneges on prisoner swap deal

[SalarHaqq]

Correct analysis, however, all this admirable perseverance of Iran will need to have an eventual inflection point (think Nixon’s China moment).

Iran cannot stay under draconian economic siege forever. The oil buying by China is not enough to fundamentally expand the Iranian economy long term. Thus the longer the people of Iran stay under economic siege the more boiling of tempers of the local population = more riots & instability.

IRI shouldn’t make the same mistake as the shah and think he can’t survive every riot that comes its way. Indeed even in the last round of (mostly youth) riots we saw divisions starting to form within the leadership. In a future much stronger riot and discontent we could see much more distinct fractures which will allow the enemy ways to exploit the cause for their benefit (color revolution).

The inflection is when unilateral USA sanctions will no longer be heeded by third parties outside the likes of America's EU vassals, and when the G7 will be superseded economically more than it already is by emerging powers. To this day Washington has never been interested in a Nixon-style deal with the Islamic Republic, whenever they agreed to negotiate it was simply to try and impose a lopsided, unbalanced arrangement ultimately meant to disarm Iran.

During recent riots various opinions were expressed by officials when it comes to the dress code and what the police's role should be in its enforcing it, but about the need to quell violent riots there was no dissent to speak of. And security forces showed no sign of disloyalty.

 

[Novus ordu seclorum]

It is not just U.S. foreign policy. I see no initiative by anyone to see if there is some way to extract Hamas (and sympathizers) from Gaza without sending entire Gaza though a garbage disposal machine. At this rate, Gaza will turn into Yemen in a couple of weeks due to humanitarian disaster.

Israel is totally in control of the area for decades, so why there is no peace? Because, Israel wants the vanquished Palestinians as their b!tches, they will never have peace lacking the quality of chivalry.

 

[TheImmortal]

The inflection is when unilateral USA sanctions will no longer be heeded by third parties outside the likes of America's EU vassals

That could take decades (if ever).

, and when the G7 will be superseded economically more than it already is by emerging powers.

Again BRICS showed no desire to an alternative currency. Dollar and Euro dominate banks around the world and business deals. Without a suitable (eastern) replacement you cannot hope to supersede the G7 or at the very least become independent from the Western led world order.

To this day Washington has never been interested in a Nixon-style deal with the Islamic Republic, whenever they agreed to negotiate it was simply to try and impose a lopsided, unbalanced arrangement ultimately meant to disarm Iran.

This is usually when world war breaks out. When men become weak from times of peace and economic prosperity and no longer see value in negotiation and treat everything like a zero sum game.

Most of the world has forgotten WW2. Most of the world has had peace and prosperity. The men of western nations are weak and arrogant. They don’t believe in peace or compromise. They lead with blood thrist.

When you don’t compromise with your enemy then you will end up in a Great War.

 

[SalarHaqq]

That could take decades (if ever).

It's a certitude since no empire is eternal. Also USA hegemony is in its descending phase so with each passing year the effect of sanctions is blunted a little more, gradually taking pressure off Iran.

Again BRICS showed no desire to an alternative currency. Dollar and Euro dominate banks around the world and business deals. Without a suitable (eastern) replacement you cannot hope to supersede the G7 or at the very least become independent from the Western led world order.

All in the making. At any rate Iran is guaranteed to benefit economically from BRICS membership.

This is usually when world war breaks out. When men become weak from times of peace and economic prosperity and no longer see value in negotiation and treat everything like a zero sum game.

Most of the world has forgotten WW2. Most of the world has had peace and prosperity. The men of western nations are weak and arrogant. They don’t believe in peace or compromise. They lead with blood thrist.

When you don’t compromise with your enemy then you will end up in a Great War.

Compromise is a two way street, when there's no readiness for an honest arrangement on Washington's part then giving in is what would be fatal for Iran.