Donald Trump's opponents are having something of a field day with news that Hillary Clinton's lead in the popular vote currently tops 1 million.
As US News put it, "Trump's legitimacy has been called into question by his adversaries because he didn't win the popular vote, adding to the desire among his critics to defy him from the start of his administration."
The Nation alerted its readers that "Republican nominee will become president with less popular support than a number of major-party candidates who lost races for the presidency." (The Nation conveniently ignores the fact that Bill Clinton won his first race with just 43% of the popular vote.)
California Sen. Barbara Boxer introduced a bill to eliminate the Electoral College, calling it an "undemocratic system that does not reflect our modern society that."
The feelings among those who supported Hillary Clinton is understandable. After all, as it stands, Trump currently has 46.78% of the vote, compared with Clinton's 47.69%. And as votes continue to be counted, her margin has increased, according to data from
US Election Atlas.
But a closer look at the election returns show that Hillary's lead in the popular vote
is entirely due to her oversized margin of victory in uber-liberal California.
First, let's look at the country as a whole.
So far, Trump has won the popular vote in 29 states, to Clinton's 20 states. (As of this writing, Michigan is still up in the air, although Trump currently leads in the vote count.) In other words, Trump carried 45% more states than Clinton.
Since winning state elections is what counts in the United States when running for president, Trump clearly outperformed Clinton. (Trump has 25% more electoral votes than Clinton.)
What's more, Trump's margin of victory in the states he won was, on average, higher than Clinton's.
Of the state's Trump won, he got 56.2% of the vote, on average. Of the states Clinton won, she got only 53.5% of the vote.
The only reason that Clinton is beating Trump in the overall popular vote is that California gave Clinton a
huge margin of victory — which currently stands at 61% to 33%.
The thing is, California is a very populous and very liberal state — so far, it has counted more than 10.7 million ballots. As a result, California alone is dumping vast numbers of votes into the Clinton column — where she currently has 3 million more than Trump.
But what if California's vote was in line with all the other Democratic states, where Clinton beat Trump 53.5% to 40.2%?
If that were the case, Clinton would have received 860,000 fewer votes in California. And if Trump had captured the same share he received in those same Democratic states, he'd have gotten 773,000 more California votes.
In other words, if California was more like the average Democratic state, Trump would currently have a
400,000 vote lead in the nationwide popular vote.
It's no wonder Boxer wants to do away with the Electoral College, since it would let her state decide presidential elections, even if — as in this election — the Republican candidate did much better in far more states across the country.
As IBD pointed out in a recent editorial, the
Electoral College was specifically designed to prevent candidates from winning the presidency simply by appealing to a few heavily-populated, highly partisan regions of the country. The Electoral College forces candidates to compete nationwide if they want to be president. That's a good thing.
Trump was right to say that, if the election were based on the popular vote, he'd have campaigned differently, particularly in states like California and New York where he had no hope of winning the popular vote but could have cut into Hillary's outsized margins and won more votes than her nationwide.
Yes, the Electoral College occasionally produces the odd outcome where the popular vote winner is the election night loser. But without the Electoral College, abnormally partisan states like California could permanently dominate the nation's politics.
It's unlikely people in "flyover" country would consider that fair, or even democratic.
Merline is deputy editor of Commentary and Opinion at IBD.
Outside California, Clinton Is A Big-Time Popular Vote Loser