Pakistan is no joke my friend -- this fact, I think is not at all registered in the mind set of the masses otherwise they would not be so eager or forthcoming in adopting conspiracy theories and believing and focusing upon external threats instead of the internal threats.
Think for a minute – 80 or so nukes dispersed so well that we, ourselves, if need be, would require minimum of fifteen days to assemble a warhead! Do you think the SPD is being run by nincompoops? The so called "Anti-Pakistan" forces are fully aware of this.
The time has gone that they could do preemptive strikes like Osirak or a commando operation (Like OBL Compound) -- that is no longer an option with them -- you might not believe it but that is the truth. Nuclear Facilities involved in weapons storage or production program are under five layered security system with full low, medium, and high altitude missile/gun coverage. The ground forces guarding them are equipped with night vision devices, motion/pressure sensors, and other security equipment. In some cases, the facilities are guarded by SSG Commandos.
They might draw out plans for a doomsday scenario but they have run a number of game plays but they always come up short by 20% -- that is 20% of the nukes will be un-accounted for after any clandestine raid. With their 100K troops in Afghanistan, that my friend, for anyone, is a doomsday scenario.
To me this is a non-starter - this commando action or a raid!!!!! Yes they will try to use other tactics to reduce the extent of our nuclear arsenal. However, one of them is not implosion of Pakistan as it creates atleast three headaches instead of one. Citing their experience with Soviet Union -- it was a nightmare and it took atleast ten years, and billions of dollars to secure, to reasonable level, the nukes in the ex. client states or the broken up CIS territories. Mind you the scenario with Pakistan is a lot more complicated and also has a heady mixture of religion and Muslim Brotherhood/Ummah makes it potential spillover in a region full of hostile govt. or population to US. This factor was not there is ex. USSR. This alone creates a strong case against splitting Pakistan into smaller territories.
This is just one aspect of the whole game. No one even focus's on what would or could be a response of GoP/military after such a raid or attack? It takes 12 hours by road to smuggle some key scientist into Iran or four hours to fly some personnel to KSA on commercial flights. Furthermore, what about the “Dirty Bomb” and the spent fuel or its transfer to Iran? There are endless spin-off possibilities that are not fully accounted for in the so called Anti-Pakistan planning. Give the devil his due – they are not idiots –they are fully aware that what we discuss in the tea houses and the streets of Pakistan can be played as a scenario in a war game room of the Pentagon or a strategy sessions play at Langley or NSA meeting but carrying it out with "Zero" failure option is just not possible.
On the contrary, it serves the purpose of our bureaucracy to keep on creating demons and issues to cover their own ineptitude in both domestic and foreign policy failures and strategies that are now obsolete or colossal failures whether Kashmir, Afghanistan (of the Strategic Depth fame), or the Crescent around India – also known as the Pan Islamism doctrine of Zia-ul-Haq years.
Kindly do a dispassionate analysis and than decide what is possible and what is being conjured up as a façade.
What we should be cognizant are the other options available to the so called Anti-Pakistan Global Conspiracy Inc. That is more challenging and needs more though and discussion. A hint, something to do with our domestic challenges???
Furthermore, do pay attention to who is saying what and whatt has been the track recod of "Who" vis a vis realtionship with Pakistan and India. Iran went out of the way to accomodate India by giving Naval facillities to India that are a game changer for IN. Furthrmore, Iran is an active player in Baluchistan and we can just see where RAW is getting some boost from in Baluchistan. That my friend is food for thought while you drink your morning coffee and read the newspaper
