Han Patriot
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Firstly, we need to understand a few scenarios:What air reinforcement?From where?Your aircraft will fly from china all across india to reinforce?Lol.More naval ships from where?South china sea bases are thousands of miles away.You are surrounded on all sides by Indian navy and airforce bases with the USN watching and waiting to the south at Diego Garcia.
1) Limited war at border area with Chinese vessel patrolling with or without bases in IOR.
2) Limited war at border area with Chinese vessel patrolling with or without bases in IOR where IN is engaging.
3) Limited war at border area with Chinese vessel patrolling with or without bases in IOR where IN is engaging and mainland Indian air force is engaging but no nuclear weapons are deployed
Check the location of Yunnan, there is an air base at the border near Xishuangbana. The distance is almost the same from Mainland India from Vishakpatnam, roughtly 1000+km, the range of the J-11 is around 3500km. We will fly through Myanmarese air space.
In scenario 1) Indian navy will not attack because the Chinese vessels will do the same damage to their commercial ships if they do the same. War is limited to border areas, this is the situation China is striving for.
In scenario 2) if IN engages and attacks Chinese vessels, there will be naval warfare in IOR and reinforcements would be sent from Mainland China, A&R will be attacked and destroyed if they try to intervene. The explanation of how it will be done had already been explained in other threads. A combination of sea launched missiles and air attack.
In scenario 3) if IAF engages and attacks Chinese vessels from the mainland, China will also reciprocate from the mainland and attack Indian mainland. This will be an all out war, but no nuclear would be used.
Last scenario is nuclear war aka WWIII.
Why do you think the Chinese are launching 36 satellites to create a global nav sat system? Currently the system already cover the whole IOR. Port Blair base is so obvious from spy sats, coordinates are well known. what kind of guidance data you need? Yah how many Barak 8 do you have? And how much does it cost? 200 missiles cost 2.6 billion, how much do you think our cruise missiles cost? If 50% of our cheap long range missiles hit their target, your air base is gone, you can store your planes in bunkers, how are they gonna take off without a runway?Missile attacks from yunnan?Lol on IOR?Even if some of your longest missiles reached it who would be providing guidance data?Where is the requisite aerial surveillence aircraft /drones or land based radar going to come from.And any cruise missile will be shot down easily by specialized cruise missile killer barak 8.Lol,how long do you think it takes to operationalize the airbase ,faster than you can send out a fleet into IOR.The infrastructure is there.In wartime it can be activated quickly,supported by our airforce from south india.How long do you think it would take to airlift a brahmos battery to station there?
Everybody in strategic circles knows the importance of andaman,only you are ignorant.
USA bombed the runways and towers in syria- a backward force with 59 tomahawks and next morning base was operational.That is the weakness of subsonics,too weak punching power - cant hit hardened targets.And no they won't destroy planes.Also please remind me why you are talking of airbases when talking of IOR?
As to how many missiles we can afford?
U.S. Central Command stated in a press release that Tomahawk missiles hit "aircraft, hardened aircraft shelters, petroleum and logistical storage, ammunition supply bunkers, defense systems, and radars".[23] Initial U.S. reports claimed "approximately 20 planes" were destroyed, and that 58 out of the 59 cruise missiles launched "severely degraded or destroyed" their intended target.[24][25] According to the satellite images the runways[26] and the taxiways have been reportedly undamaged and combat flights from the attacked airbase resumed on 7 April a few hours after the attack, although U.S. officials did not state that the runway was a target
None of the missiles were intended to damage runways and 50 missiles for a 3km long runway is practically useless. If you rain 200-300 cheap missiles on specific runways along specific lengths, it will take days if not weeks (Indian effort) to repair. If you include destruction of oil storage, radars, etc, the base would be out of service until repair crews from mainland India reaches Andaman. These few day of inactivity would have enable Chinese naval bombardment of Port Blair and Air Force reinforcements from Yunnan to reach and further damage it with bunker busting bombs plus heavy duty bombs. After which the ships would have passed through and more reinforcement would go through.
Depending on what is the range of your guesstimate Brahmos is, I suspect it's more like 300km, Chinese fleet can just stay clear of 300km from the mainland, and with satellite intelligence, we know the locations of those batteries and avoid them. Else, we can bombard them with our ship/submarine based missiles. The only concern is air force, if you use that, our air force will be mobilized to attack India. The aim here is to provide enough naval balance until the Indians will not harass Chinese trade routes, not invade mainland India.Well lets see - 400 brahmos missiles in 4 regiments for the army operational.Fifth regiment with another 100 being raised.Plus a reserve maybe of 100 more.(Useable in coastal battery mode if needed)
You are talking as if you are the only ones with planes, missiles and ships. If you go to this scenario, which is scenario 3, then the whole air force and navy would be mobilized, assuming non-nuclear, bye bye Delhi. If nuclear, bye bye India.22 air launched harpoons for jaguars and P-8I.Plus air launched brahmos now coming online in su-30mKI. About 150 KH-31 for su-30MKI.Unknown numbers of air launched KH-35 and KH-31 for the 45 mig-29Ks and Il-38s.
12 sea eagles on jaguars.
For navy - 416 SS-N-25 Kh-35s for Delhi class and rajput class destroyers,brahmaputra class frigates and missile corvettes.
40-50 SS-N-22 sunburn/moskit in missile corvettes.
60-100 SS-N-2D Styx missiles in corvettes,Rajput class and coastal batteries.
60 SS-N-27 Klub/Sizzler/Kaliber for Shivalik and Early batch Talwars.
130 plus Brahmos deployed on Kolkata,Talwar,upgraded Rajputs.Unknown war reserves/reloads.
40 sub-launched klubs from Kilos and akula.
24 sub-launched harpoon from U-209.
36 Exocets.
Brahmos,Klub and Sunburn,Kh-31(to lesser extent) are our elite supersonic weapons.With subsonic Kh-35,harpoon and exocets for massed saturation .If 24 Brahmos salvo can potentially penetrate a US CBG,what hope do you think you have against this massive arsenal?Even just our brahmos arsenal (which is going to grow year after year as all new ships will have it,and older ships will be upgraded with it)is enough to sink the cream of PLAN.
Btw, you need to understand the reason for an IOR fleet deployment. It is not meant to invade India. It is a deterrent measure. The fleet don't even need to be as big as the Indian Navy, 70-80% size is adequate. Imagine if we don't have an IOR fleet, Indians would just blockade and destroy China based trade routes, with a 70-80% size fleet power, it is more than enough to reciprocate Indian harassment. You are also forgetting Pakistan in this equation.
The intent is to limit the war to the border and prevent Indians from trying to be funny. China has a no nuclear first use policy, not sure about crazy Hindus. If no nuclear weapons are used, India is toasted.
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