US has most to lose from trade war, China would benefit – ECB study

[SBUS-CXK]

According to a simulation study conducted by the European Central Bank (ECB) on Wednesday, the US would suffer the most economically if it starts a global trade war while China would emerge better-off, despite retaliation, Reuters reports.

Key Findings:

‘The ECB study simulates a 10 percent U.S. tariff on all imports and an equivalent retaliation from other countries.

Estimation results suggest that the United States’ net export position would deteriorate substantially.

In this model, U.S. firms also invest less and hire fewer workers, which amplifies the negative effect.

The ECB estimates U.S. growth would be cut by more than 2 percentage points.

By contrast, China would gain by exporting more to third countries where U.S. goods are subject to tariffs, although that slight gain would be temporary and partly offset by a negative effect on confidence.”

https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-ha...ar-china-would-benefit-ecb-study-201809260844

 

[Beny Karachun]

No one benefits from such a war, and China will not win.

 

[SBUS-CXK]

No one benefits from such a war, and China will not win.

Ummm. but China bought the Israeli port.

 

[Beny Karachun]

Ummm. but China bought the Israeli port.

So...?
Does this mean you won the trade war? I didn't involve Israel in this.

I'm not saying the US will win either, I'm saying your trade wars just hurt both of your economies without real conclusion.

 

[SBUS-CXK]

So...?
Does this mean you won the trade war? I didn't involve Israel in this.

I'm not saying the US will win either, I'm saying your trade wars just hurt both of your economies without real conclusion.

So even Israel does not believe in Americans.
Of course, your personal view is no problem.

Tell me - now, Turkey, EU, Iran, Venezuela. Who will believe in Americans?

Canada, India, SK, EU... Why are they fighting trade war with the United States?

 

[Vijyes Yechury]

According to a simulation study conducted by the European Central Bank (ECB) on Wednesday, the US would suffer the most economically if it starts a global trade war while China would emerge better-off, despite retaliation, Reuters reports.

Key Findings:

‘The ECB study simulates a 10 percent U.S. tariff on all imports and an equivalent retaliation from other countries.

Estimation results suggest that the United States’ net export position would deteriorate substantially.

In this model, U.S. firms also invest less and hire fewer workers, which amplifies the negative effect.

The ECB estimates U.S. growth would be cut by more than 2 percentage points.

By contrast, China would gain by exporting more to third countries where U.S. goods are subject to tariffs, although that slight gain would be temporary and partly offset by a negative effect on confidence.”

https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-ha...ar-china-would-benefit-ecb-study-201809260844

How will China trade increase? That itself is retarded. China is not having undercapacity that it is not able to meet demand. If China can ship to developing countries after USA tariffs, what is stopping China from already shipping the goods from today itself?

 

[Beny Karachun]

So even Israel does not believe in Americans.
Of course, your personal view is no problem.

Tell me - now, Turkey, EU, Iran, Venezuela. Who will believe in Americans?

Canada, India, SK, EU... Why are they fighting trade war with the United States?

It's not that we "do not believe in Americans".
We would rather China and the US would fight in order to get Israel on their side, by letting them invest in our country, rather than choose a side.

 

[SBUS-CXK]

How will China trade increase? That itself is retarded. China is not having undercapacity that it is not able to meet demand. If China can ship to developing countries after USA tariffs, what is stopping China from already shipping the goods from today itself?

The Indians left. Backward agricultural countries are not suitable here.

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.............................................................

 

[Hamartia Antidote]

According to a simulation study conducted by the European Central Bank (ECB) on Wednesday, the US would suffer the most economically if it starts a global trade war while China would emerge better-off, despite retaliation, Reuters reports.

Key Findings:

‘The ECB study simulates a 10 percent U.S. tariff on all imports and an equivalent retaliation from other countries.

Estimation results suggest that the United States’ net export position would deteriorate substantially.

In this model, U.S. firms also invest less and hire fewer workers, which amplifies the negative effect.

The ECB estimates U.S. growth would be cut by more than 2 percentage points.

By contrast, China would gain by exporting more to third countries where U.S. goods are subject to tariffs, although that slight gain would be temporary and partly offset by a negative effect on confidence.”

https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-ha...ar-china-would-benefit-ecb-study-201809260844

Haidian already beat you

https://defence.pk/pdf/threads/trade-war-may-boost-china-while-hurting-u-s-growth-ecb-says.578975/

 

[SBUS-CXK]

Haidian already beat you

https://defence.pk/pdf/threads/trade-war-may-boost-china-while-hurting-u-s-growth-ecb-says.578975/

The point is... EU beat you.

 

[Chinese-Dragon]

How will China trade increase? That itself is retarded. China is not having undercapacity that it is not able to meet demand. If China can ship to developing countries after USA tariffs, what is stopping China from already shipping the goods from today itself?

Read this part of the article:

"By contrast, China would gain by exporting more to third countries where U.S. goods are subject to tariffs, although that slight gain would be temporary and partly offset by a negative effect on confidence.”

Remember that many countries (in the European Union, Mexico, Canada, etc.) have placed sanctions on American goods and services in retaliation for Donald Trump's global trade war against the world.

 

[Solomon2]

The ECB study simulates a 10 percent U.S. tariff on all imports and an equivalent retaliation -

There you go, totally unrealistic assumptions: that ALL imports are tariffed, that ALL countries are affected, and that it is even possible to undertake "equivalent retaliation".

The ECB can do better - I'd bet it probably has. But that didn't make it into this news story.

 

[MultaniGuy]

Read this part of the article:

"By contrast, China would gain by exporting more to third countries where U.S. goods are subject to tariffs, although that slight gain would be temporary and partly offset by a negative effect on confidence.”

Remember that many countries (in the European Union, Mexico, Canada, etc.) have placed sanctions on American goods and services in retaliation for Donald Trump's global trade war against the world.

Ignore @Solomon2 , he is a Zionist creep.

He believes anything Anti-USA is a wrong study, and anything pro-anyone else is also a wrong study.

Cannot tolerate others getting developed.

 

[Hamartia Antidote]

Ignore @Solomon2 , he is a Zionist creep.

He believes anything Anti-USA is a wrong study, and anything pro-anyone else is also a wrong study.

Cannot tolerate others getting developed.

But he’s right. If you read the article you’ll see yourself.

 

[Chinese-Dragon]

But he’s right. If you read the article you’ll see yourself.

What Solomon actually said was: "The ECB can do better - I'd bet it probably has. But that didn't make it into this news story."

The next thing the American Alt-Right will be saying is that "trade wars are good and easy to win".

The European Union and Canada laughed in America's face, just like the entire world did in the UN. China is sitting on the sidelines and taking advantage of all those Western trade sanctions against America, ready to fill the orders that America has lost.

Meanwhile Trump can continue cutting trillions in corporate taxes and putting through massive spending plans, even though America already has (by far) the largest budget deficit and the largest trade deficit in the world. Where is the money coming from? Oh right... even more borrowing. And China will be happy to continue lending, in fact it is an economic imperative (the balance of payments must be balanced... a surplus on the current account must be balanced via the capital account).

To summarize: Go Donald Trump!