US GDP to leave China behind

[beijingwalker]

In 2002, China itself predicted that China's GDP would surpass Japan and become the world No.2 in 2050, it turned out that China did it in 2010.

 

[F-22Raptor]

The Chinese and their *** kissers will use every excuse in the book as to why they can’t close the GDP gap with the US. They’ll cherry pick any stat to support their empty arguments. Some may even sound convincing….until you step back and take a look at the bigger picture.

At the end of 2012:

US GDP- $16.253T
China GDP- $8.539T

A difference of around $7.7T

At the end of 2022:

US GDP- $25.464T
China GDP-$18.100T

A difference of around $7.3T


China has barely closed the gap with the US in the last decade, even with significantly higher growth rates. Chinas share of GDP may have increased from 52% to 71%, but that will drop this year closer to 65%.

As Chinas growth rate declines it becomes harder and harder to close the gap and keep pace.

Even Japan reached 70% of US GDP in 1995, the rest is history.

 

[beijingwalker]

“In purchasing power parity, they spend about one dollar to our 20 dollars to get to the same capability.”

China Acquiring New Weapons Five Times Faster Than U.S. Warns Top Official​

Air Force’s acquisition chief is the latest to warn that the Pentagon is being left behind by the pace of China's defense developments.

China Acquiring New Weapons Five Times Faster Than U.S. Warns Top Official

Air Force’s acquisition chief is the latest to warn that the Pentagon is being left behind by the pace of China's defense developments.

www.thedrive.com

Real Sector GDP VS Total GDP​

US vs. China: Measuring Real Economic Power​

Published: Monday, December 6, 2021

Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is a basic measure of the overall size of a country's economy and is often used to compare different countries' economic power. But what exactly is compared when someone says that the GDP of country A is larger than the GDP of country B?

The System of National Accounts (SNA) of the United Nations defines GDP as a monetary value of final goods and services — that is, what end users actually purchase — produced in a country, along with some non-market "production" such as defense or education services provided by governments, during a specific period of time (say a quarter or a year).

As the UN definition of GDP implies, the whole economy can be divided into two major sectors: the so-called real sector, which includes production of goods and real assets, and the services sector, which includes production of services, everything from banking to education to healthcare.

This dashboard uses U.N. data to analyze the economic powers of countries measured solely by the ability of the economy to produce goods and real assets like infrastructure, dwellings and nonresidential buildings, and machinery and equipment. We estimate GDP produced in the real sector of an economy as a sum of value added in four broad economic activity groups: Agriculture, Industry, Construction, and Transportation and Communications.

Why the focus on the real sector? The strength of the real sector reflects two of the basic characteristics of an economy that determine its ability to successfully compete in a world of rising tensions between major powers: self-sufficiency and military power. The third basic economic factor affecting a country's competitiveness — the availability of resources — is not considered here.

• Using real sector GDP in cross-country comparison of economic power significantly changes the view of the global economic landscape. The U.S. economy, which is the world's largest economy when measured by total GDP at current US dollars, is more than $500 billion smaller than China's when measured by real sector GDP.
• In 2019*, the ten largest economies in terms of real sector GDP included Russia, Korea and Indonesia. In the ranking by total GDP, these countries are lower down the list, and Italy, Brazil, and Canada round out the top ten.

Note: 2019 is currently the latest available year in the U.N. National Accounts Main Aggregates Database

 

[beijingwalker]

Tell me why you US can't afford building anything now, highways, subways, railways, ships....since you are that rich as you claim, how come you don't have money to build anything?

You so called US "riches" are only on paper, when being transfered into production, you are among the poorest.

High inflation and crazy cost of living create a mirage

Record share of Americans say they are worse off financially than one year earlier: survey

A record share of Americans in a new survey from the Federal Reserve Board say they’re worse off financially than they were a year earlier. According to the “Economic Well-Being of U.S. Households”…

thehill.com

 

[StraightEdge]

The Chinese and their *** kissers will use every excuse in the book as to why they can’t close the GDP gap with the US. They’ll cherry pick any stat to support their empty arguments. Some may even sound convincing….until you step back and take a look at the bigger picture.

At the end of 2012:

US GDP- $16.253T
China GDP- $8.539T

A difference of around $7.7T

At the end of 2022:

US GDP- $25.464T
China GDP-$18.100T

A difference of around $7.3T


China has barely closed the gap with the US in the last decade, even with significantly higher growth rates. Chinas share of GDP may have increased from 52% to 71%, but that will drop this year closer to 65%.

As Chinas growth rate declines it becomes harder and harder to close the gap and keep pace.

Even Japan reached 70% of US GDP in 1995, the rest is history.

Do you enjoy showing off your lack of intellectual capacity in public?

 

[beijingwalker]

Even Japan reached 70% of US GDP in 1995, the rest is history.

Japan never overtook US in PPP, Never the world biggest trading nation, industrial nation, agricultural nation, manufacturing nation, mining nation, shipping nation.. now China has all these top titles firmly in its hands, and US?

 

[Get Ya Wig Split]

China will never surpass, let alone dominate, the United States. The U.S. population is projected to reach 500 million by 2050, while China's population has already begun to decline. By 2100, US will have more people than China. China's population will shrink to only 450-500 million. In the same period, the US will have around 600-700 million people, including Canada and Mexico, totaling about 900 million. China may pose the most significant challenge in the next 15 years, but after 2050, China's story is effectively over.

The study's projections show the U.S. population would grow to nearly 500 million people by 2050 if U.S. immigration levels were doubled, about 100 million more than if immigration levels were kept at recent levels.

Increasing Future Immigration Grows U.S. Competitive Advantage

A new report shows how, if it fails to significantly boost legal immigration now, the U.S. will sacrifice its position as the world’s largest economy by 2030.

www.fwd.us

 

[F-22Raptor]

Do you enjoy showing off your lack of intellectual capacity in public?

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-09-05/china-slowdown-means-it-may-never-overtake-us-economy-be-says?embedded-checkout=true

Will China's economy overcome the US | Capital Economics

Our long-run forecasts suggest that China will still be the second-largest economy, measured at market exchange rates, in 2050. Read our report to find out more

www.capitaleconomics.com

China's GDP unlikely to surpass U.S. in next few decades: JCER

Effects of zero-COVID policy prompt think tank to drop earlier forecast

asia.nikkei.com

China's economy may never overtake the US as Beijing sets more cautious growth target, Rockefeller International chairman says

Ruchir Sharma, chairman of Rockefeller International and CIO of Breakout Capital, isn't bullish on China's growth prospects.

markets.businessinsider.com

Economic think tanks don’t give a s**t about real GDP. Nominal GDP is real geopolitical power

The sooner you come to terms with that the better.

 

[Get Ya Wig Split]

In 2002, China itself predicted that China's GDP would surpass Japan and become the world No.2 in 2050, it turned out that China did it in 2010.

View attachment 955514

Please clip your nails and clean the dirt from underneath them shits, thank you.

 

[Mista]

China has barely closed the gap with the US in the last decade, even with significantly higher growth rates. Chinas share of GDP may have increased from 52% to 71%, but that will drop this year closer to 65%.

The Yuan was around 6.3/USD in 2012.

Again, the fall in share of nominal GDP is only temporary due to much higher inflation in the US and a strong USD due to interest rate hikes, not due to fundamental higher real GDP growth. You're not going to rely on a depreciating Yuan and red hot inflation to outpace real growth in the long term.

The Yuan is not going to depreciate 10% every year and hit 15 Yuan/USD by 2030 or whatsoever.

Even Japan reached 70% of US GDP in 1995, the rest is history.

Japan is in a huge price bubble back in 1995 which affected their competitiveness in international markets.

Japan's nominal to PPP ratio is around 1.9 at its peak in 1995:

Which means, price levels in Japan was around 1.9x of the US's back in 1995. For comparison, currently Bermuda has the highest PPP ratio at ~1.2x.

World Bank Open Data

Free and open access to global development data

data.worldbank.org

After decades of deflation/currency depreciation, Japan's price level relative to the US has dropped from 1.9 in 1995 to about ~0.7-0.8 in recent years, on par with other developed countries like Germany and France. So deflation in Japan is more like 'normalization' of its price levels relative to the rest of the developed world.

OTOH, China's nominal to PPP ratio is around 0.6. How much 'cheaper' can it get?

You can't just plonk Japan's past experience to China without understanding what other fundamental factors are at play. Japan is just too expensive relative to the rest of the world back in 1995, and decades of deflation/depreciation is actually just a normalization of Japan's price levels. It's different for China, which currently has a PPP ratio of ~0.6.

You must be inhaling copium if you think the US can remain its ~$7tril lead simply by getting more expensive or that China will get cheaper every year to make up for the difference in real growth rate.

In fact I see China's inflation outpacing other developed countries in the medium term and reach a PPP ratio of ~0.7-0.8 like other developed countries, as a shrinking labor supply pushes up wages and costs. Gone are the days when China has endless supply of cheap labor working in factories. Like the developed countries, it's natural that more of their youth wants to work in a cushy office job as the economy progresses.

 

[FuturePAF]

It’s not rocket science as to who will be the largest economy. The most innovative will win market share, all else being equal. But all else is not even, and China will have to find “new markets” to compensate for limits in access to established export markets.

China will also need to attract the best talent from around the world to be able to outcompete established leaders.

We need only look at how US companies outcompeted the Europeans over the last 100 years, in practically every field, and how even the best European talent emigrates to do their most innovative work in the US.

 

[beijingwalker]

What matters more to China is China is already the world biggest trading nation, export nation, surplus nation, industrial nation, agricultural nation, manufacturing nation, mining nation, shipping nation.. how about US, What US still has other than an inflated GDP number by hyper inflation and bloated stock market?

 

[FuturePAF]

What matters more to China is China is already the world biggest trading nation, export nation, surplus nation, industrial nation, agricultural nation, manufacturing nation, mining nation, shipping nation.. how about US, What US still has other than an inflated GDP number by hyper inflation and bloated stock market?

Us companies are still more innovative and create products that help them stay ahead of competitors. One example is Boeing’s airplanes (not the 737 max) but the 787 and updated 777.

 

[beijingwalker]

Us companies are still more innovative and create products that help them stay ahead of competitors. One example is Boeing’s airplanes (not the 737 max) but the 787 and updated 777.

Even this is changing really fast

China tops Global Innovation Index 2023

China tops Global Innovation Index 2023 Global Innovation Index shows China overtaking US on number of leading clusters, but UK impresses on intensive smaller clusters September 20, 2023 John Morgan Guangzhou China has overtaken the US in hosting the largest number of leading science and...

pdf.defence.pk

 

[F-22Raptor]

The Yuan was around 6.3/USD in 2012.

Again, the fall in share of nominal GDP is only temporary due to much higher inflation in the US and a strong USD due to interest rate hikes, not due to fundamental higher real GDP growth. You're not going to rely on a depreciating Yuan and red hot inflation to outpace real growth in the long term.

The Yuan is not going to depreciate 10% every year and hit 15 Yuan/USD by 2030 or whatsoever.



Japan is in a huge price bubble back in 1995 which affected their competitiveness in international markets.

Japan's nominal to PPP ratio is around 1.9 at its peak in 1995:

View attachment 955558

Which means, price levels in Japan was around 1.9x of the US's back in 1995. For comparison, currently Bermuda has the highest PPP ratio at ~1.2x.

View attachment 955575

World Bank Open Data

Free and open access to global development data

data.worldbank.org

After decades of deflation/currency depreciation, Japan's price level relative to the US has dropped from 1.9 in 1995 to about ~0.7-0.8 in recent years, on par with other developed countries like Germany and France. So deflation in Japan is more like 'normalization' of its price levels relative to the rest of the developed world.

OTOH, China's nominal to PPP ratio is around 0.6. How much 'cheaper' can it get?

View attachment 955562

You can't just plonk Japan's past experience to China without understanding what other fundamental factors are at play. Japan is just too expensive relative to the rest of the world back in 1995, and decades of deflation/depreciation is actually just a normalization of Japan's price levels. It's different for China, which currently has a PPP ratio of ~0.6.

You must be inhaling copium if you think the US can remain its ~$7tril lead simply by getting more expensive or that China will get cheaper every year to make up for the difference in real growth rate.

In fact I see China's inflation outpacing other developed countries in the medium term and reach a PPP ratio of ~0.7-0.8 like other developed countries, as a shrinking labor supply pushes up wages and costs. Gone are the days when China has endless supply of cheap labor working in factories. Like the developed countries, it's natural that more of their youth wants to work in a cushy office job as the economy progresses.

US GDP lead will extend to $9-10T this year, with US GDP crossing $30T in 2025 and $40T within a decade. Good luck to China