US brushes aside assumptions linking Pakistan to Kashmir violence

[illusion8]

there was a self praise and country and internet wide bragging by the Indians that Pakistan has been discarded by the international community, first they dismissed the Russian -Pakistani warming up of the ties and even went as far as writing off the Russians and dismissed them as one isolated country going for another isolated country but to their grief , the COAS visit to USA turned out to be something impossible to swallow and its effects are still causing concerns among the Indians who opened up their Campaigns too early.

if the bubble of self importance and ill placed arrogance is not busted yet then it must be strained at the event horizon. lol


for us, this statement is a victory for Pakistan and we are going to rub on it and the swarm of Indian comments below will show how right we are

COAS going to US is impossible to swallow? lol, who stopped him from going? or who commented on his visit? can you come up with a joint statement issued by the US with your COAS to any effect on his 15 day tour?.

 

[SpArK]

Before Gen Sharif went to US, Pentagon came out with a report about how Pakistan is using proxies in Afghanistan and India but after his visit to the US things changed. And now this statement, what an achievement and how India's efforts have been thwarted.

US has never ever reffered anything directly when dealing with larger countries. It doesnt need to.

A mere referral is inapt when the joint war effort is still active and nobody from Indian government expected US to directly link Pakistan's name. Its not their job to do mouth service for India and vise versa , the latest being India not supporting US backed sanctions against Russia.

This thread is still funny. Im gonna wait and read all the reactions and interpretations..

 

[ranjeet]

Right after the Pentagon report the senior US military commander on the ground issued a statement that the Pakistani military operation had in fact disrupted the Haqqani network - mixed messages, or perhaps just an indication that the Pentagon report was outdated, relying largely on information prior to the Pakistani military offensive in NW.

Good for Pakistan I guess, either way these both news would be used by the both sides for scoring brownie points. It's more like the Monkey and Cats story. We both will be left fighting each other and US would enjoy the cake.

 

[SpArK]

The question, and response to it, merely allow for a discussion on the larger trend in US-Pakistan relations of late, which in turn allows for a segway into a broader discussion on the increasing engagement of Pakistan with major world powers - engagement that points to a failure of Indian diplomatic efforts, over a decade, to isolate Pakistan internationally.

Thats a good sign... Discuss and engage to the fullest , mate.

 

[AgNoStiC MuSliM]

The primary relevance of the US position on the attacks, in the India-Pakistan context, is that it points to a continued failure of the Indian diplomatic offensive to "isolate Pakistan internationally".

Look, everyone knows at this point that India does not have (and will not have for another generation at least, assuming a continuation of the current economic growth in both States) the kind of conventional military superiority over Pakistan that would allow the Indian government to "act strong" in front of the electorate by conducting punitive military strikes against Pakistan without suffering an equally punitive Pakistani military retaliation. With that kind of military status-quo, the Indian government, and especially the new Hindu Nationalist Modi government, will need to display some kind of tangible "international diplomatic punishment of Pakistan" to appease its hawkish base and differentiate itself from the preceding Congress led government on the issue of India-Pakistan relations.

Of course this is but the start of the Modi government, and certain events (on the terrorism front especially) can still change the current course of positive engagement between Pakistan and the US, Russia, EU and China (in the latter case, an inability to fulfil the promise of billions in investment in various sectors in Pakistan), but the current trajectory leaves few options for the Modi government outside of overt or covert military action against Pakistan, which in turn will invite an escalatory covert and overt military response from Pakistan, which in turn will hamstring the Modi government's ability to deliver on the economic front domestically. Domestic economic growth is something Modi absolutely has to deliver on if he wants to retain the BJP's electoral primacy for more than one election cycle, so he will have to balance the demands for military escalation from hawks within the BJP with the demands to deliver on the economic front. On the Pakistani side, neutralizing the Indian ability to leverage terrorist groups within Pakistan (TTP, LeJ, BLA, BRA etc.) will demand continued focus on the fight against the TTP in the North West and an elevation of the overt and covert ops against the cells in the 'settled areas'.

And right on que, domestic political pressure on Modi:
Rahul Gandhi blames Modi for terrorist activities in Kashmir

 

[illusion8]

And right on que, domestic political pressure on Modi:

This unending fiasco's just seem like a desperate drowning man grabbing at twigs - nothing more.

 

[SpArK]

And right on que, domestic political pressure on Modi:
Rahul Gandhi blames Modi for terrorist activities in Kashmir

Its the opposition party member.

They will also blame PM if there is price rise, wrong policies and with Rahul Gandhi's case even his constipation will be blamed on Modi. That's what they do, that's what they are expected to do, that's what they are supposed to do.

 

[AgNoStiC MuSliM]

Good for Pakistan I guess, either way these both news would be used by the both sides for scoring brownie points. It's more like the Monkey and Cats story. We both will be left fighting each other and US would enjoy the cake.

Look, I still maintain that Pakistan has nothing to gain from an escalation on the LoC/WB with India - there are 150,000+ troops deployed in the North West and we have a COAS who is essentially 'frothing at the mouth' in terms of his desire to destroy the TTP and associated groups, given the barbarism they have displayed.

Pakistan's ability to 'control' insurgent groups operating in J&K is going to be severely tested given Modi's inflammatory comments, and the inflammatory comments of other members of his party, and his essential refusal to even engage in dialog over the Kashmir Dispute. At least when dialog was continuing (albeit going nowhere) Pakistan could stop the Kashmiri insurgent groups by arguing for patience over a dialog process that could deliver a resolution to the dispute without violence. Pakistan will continue arguing the same, but these groups are probably not going to buy it, and the 'pressure' will have to be relieved - either by taking military action against these groups (which poses a whole other set of complications the Pakistani political parties and military do not want to get into at this time) or the government will have to "stand by" to some degree and allow the pent up pressure to be "vented".

Ironically, the same constraints (military deployment in FATA) that would prevent the Pakistani military from escalating along the LoC/WB will also work against the Pakistani military taking on the Kashmir focused groups, because that could result in these groups joining with the TTP/AQ and opening yet more fronts inside Pakistan in the 'settled areas'.

This unending fiasco's just seem like a desperate drowning man grabbing at twigs - nothing more.

Modi argued that he would handle Pakistan 'differently' compared to the Congress led government, and made that claim a part of his electoral campaign - now if instead of 'managing Pakistan better than Congress', the Modi government ends up ratcheting up violence and tensions, then the political opposition in India is justified in pointing out the failure of Modi;s policies.

 

[illusion8]

Pakistan's ability to 'control' insurgent groups operating in J&K is going to be severely tested given Modi's inflammatory comments, and the inflammatory comments of other members of his party, and his essential refusal to even engage in dialog over the Kashmir Dispute. At least when dialog was continuing (albeit going nowhere) Pakistan could stop the Kashmiri insurgent groups by arguing for patience over a dialog process that could deliver a resolution to the dispute without violence.

If I remember correctly then Pakistan is obligated to do that - that is put a leash on all the India specific extremist groups operating out of Pakistan. Musharaf in 2004 signed an agreement to that effect promising that Pakistani land will never be used to foment any insurgency and neither will it be used for any ulterior motives against India, and you are failing badly at it by running events like terror expo 2014 organized by terrorist groups like JUD who openly foment jihad and terrorism against Pakistan's neighbors.

Modi argued that he would handle Pakistan 'differently' compared to the Congress led government, and made that claim a part of his electoral campaign - now if instead of 'managing Pakistan better than Congress', the Modi government ends up ratcheting up violence and tensions, then the political opposition in India is justified in pointing out the failure of Modi;s policies.

He's just pulling a tit for tat for internal consumption - BJP was pretty harsh on MMS for being lenient on terrorist related incidents from Pakistan. He's just proving that even if BJP is in power Pakistan will continue with it's terrorist support.

 

[AgNoStiC MuSliM]

If I remember correctly then Pakistan is obligated to do that - that is put a leash on all the India specific extremist groups operating out of Pakistan. Musharaf in 2004 signed an agreement to that effect promising that Pakistani land will never be used to foment any insurgency and neither will it be used for any ulterior motives against India.

The problem is, as I pointed out in the post you quoted, that when Modi ended the dialog the Pakistani government largely lost the ability to control these groups - the whole raison d`etre of these groups is "free Kashmir". With the cancellation of dialog and the nonsensical "Hindu nationalist rhetoric being spouted by Modi and his government every other day" Modi is essentially waving a red flag in front of these groups. Like I said, at this point Pakistan will either have to launch a full fledged military operation against these groups (unlikely given the resource constraints due to the military ops in FATA) or it will have to stand back and allow the 'blood letting' to 'relieve the pressure' until the Modi government decides to publicly restart dialog, or the ops in FATA conclude.

I am no fan of these armed Kashmir focused groups any more than I am of the TTP - but at the same time I am not sure Pakistan can handle launching a military operation against them at this point in time. Maybe in 3 or 4 more years, if the country remains on the track that it currently is, with increasing stability and economic growth.

 

[ranjeet]

Look, I still maintain that Pakistan has nothing to gain from an escalation on the LoC/WB with India - there are 150,000+ troops deployed in the North West and we have a COAS who is essentially 'frothing at the mouth' in terms of his desire to destroy the TTP and associated groups, given the barbarism they have displayed.

Pakistan's ability to 'control' insurgent groups operating in J&K is going to be severely tested given Modi's inflammatory comments, and the inflammatory comments of other members of his party, and his essential refusal to even engage in dialog over the Kashmir Dispute. At least when dialog was continuing (albeit going nowhere) Pakistan could stop the Kashmiri insurgent groups by arguing for patience over a dialog process that could deliver a resolution to the dispute without violence.

Ironically, the same constraints (military deployment in FATA) that would prevent the Pakistani military from escalating along the LoC/WB will also work against the Pakistani military taking on the Kashmir focused groups, because that could result in these groups joining with the TTP/AQ and opening yet more fronts inside Pakistan in the 'settled areas'.


Modi argued that he would handle Pakistan 'differently' compared to the Congress led government, and made that claim a part of his electoral campaign - now if instead of 'managing Pakistan better than Congress', the Modi government ends up ratcheting up violence and tensions, then the political opposition in India is justified in pointing out the failure of Modi;s policies.

I agree heating up things on LOC would have it's own consequences for PA in Zarb e Azb, but a peaceful assembly election with over 70% voter turnout might prove as a fatal blow to the Kashmir dispute. And these terrorists attack started after the first phase of voting and peaked after the second phase. I might be reading too much into it but one can't simply say that Pakistan is not vary of a higher voter turnout in Kashmir and not doing anything at all to disrupt the elections.

 

[illusion8]

The problem is, as I pointed out in the post you quoted, that when Modi ended the dialog, the Pakistani government largely lost the ability to control these groups - the whole raison d`etre of these groups is "free Kashmir" - with the cancellation of dialog and the nonsensical "Hindu nationalist rhetoric being spouted by Modi and his government every other day" Mod is essentially waving a red flag in front of them. Like I said, at this point Pakistan will either have to launch a full fledged military operation against these groups (unlikely given the resource constraints due to the military ops in FATA) or it will have to stand back and allow the 'blood letting' to 'relieve the pressure' until the Modi government decides to publicly restart dialog, or the ops in FATA conclude.

I agree that Modi is taking a harsher course and it will be difficult for Pakistan to get a grip on these groups because of it. I wonder what's behind this policy though?.

 

[Areesh]

I agree heating up things on LOC would have it's own consequences for PA in Zarb e Azb, but a peaceful assembly election with over 70% voter turnout might prove as a fatal blow to the Kashmir dispute. And these terrorists attack started after the first phase of voting and peaked after the second phase. I might be reading too much into it but one can't simply say that Pakistan is not vary of a higher voter turnout in Kashmir and not doing anything at all to disrupt the elections.

You guys should stop misusing this 70% turnout BS. Neither Pakistanis are frustrated or desperate with this turnout nor it matters for us since the votes are for development and not out of some loyalty for India like you guys claim.

 

[ranjeet]

You guys should stop misusing this 70% turnout BS. Neither Pakistanis are frustrated or desperate with this turnout nor it matters for us since the votes are for development and not out of some loyalty for India like you guys claim.

Well considering people are voting in huge numbers for BJP Pakistan should be a little concerned and I never used frustrated or desperate.

 

[Areesh]

Well considering people are voting in huge numbers for BJP Pakistan should be a little concerned and I never used frustrated or desperate.

People are voting not for BJP but to keep it out of valley which might happen if they boycotted the polls. Ask @SarthakGanguly for further details.