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Modern economics suggests other wise leasing with out ownership is preferredNope..... Leasing is the worse option financially. THis is not a car you lease.
https://www.defensenews.com/home/20...nistry-eyes-gripen-lease-deal-after-election/
Saab Outlines A Gripen Lease Proposal For Malaysia
https://saab.com/es/air/gripen-figh...o-extend-gripen-lease-in-the-czech-republic1/
Its economics as if you dont need a platform for long period
https://asianmilitaryreview.com/2017/06/india-to-lease-second-russian-nuclear-attack-submarine/
No matter how you do this we will be needing additional 60-100 fighters remmember till 2020 we need 190-200 fighters to replace so even today we can safely say that 50-60 will be added from JF17 (Personally i dont want more than 150 JF17) all block 3 ,after that lets move some other design since JF17 design is limited with capacityA look at PAF fleet may give us idea of what PAF is looking for:
No 2 JF-17 Prev: F-7P
No 5 F-16C/D Prev: Mirage III
No 7 Mirage III ROSE-I
No 8 Mirage V
No 9 F-16AM/BM
No 11 F-16 AM/BM
No 14 JF-17 Prev: F-7P
No 15 Mirage V
No 16 JF-17, Prev: A-5C
No 17 F-7PG
No 18 F-7P [Probably will be equipped with remaining JF-17s Block 2]
No 19 F-16 A/B ADF. Better than non-MLUed Block 15s and might gain strike capability with Altis Pod which was previously integrated on Block 15s.
No 20 F-7PG
No 22 Mirage V
No 23 F-7PG
No 25 Mirage V ROSE-II
No 26 JF-17 Prev: A-5C
No 27 Mirage V ROSE-III
CSS Dashing:JF-17
CSS Skybolt: Mirage ROSE-I
No. 18 last F-7P squadron will probably be equipped with remaining JF-17s from block II.
3 F-7PG squardons will probably remain as is till 2023/2025 time frame when 5th gen starts coming in. Remember these were acquired around 2002. So they are not as old as some of the other aircrafts in PAF inventory. They can fulfill role of Daytime CAS, Point Defence Fighters.
So PAF needs to replace total 3 + 4 Non-ROSE & ROSE squadrons in short-term. Block III will replace 3 of these. So what remains is 4 more squadrons. So any new platform will be around 60 filling remaining 4 squadrons.
Possibilities:
Also we need to remember JF-17s are replacing Mirages/F-7s, so thats a capability increase anyway.
- If Block III matches or exceeds F-16 as an interceptor/Air Defence Fighter, release F-16 from such duties and keep them dedicated for strike roles & occasional Air Defence when things seem to getting out of hand(kind of like F-104 in 65). Even 45 MLU and 13 ADF fighters can be mixed up in squardons. This gives 4 squardons of Medium Range fighter for strike missions. Block IV of 50 JF-17s to fill numbers and to act as lower end strike aircraft(may be attempt to have CFT to increase range/free up stations for weapons, also a newer engine and lighter airframe can be attempted. Kind of JF-17 on steroids. But for this to happen in time, PAF has to finalize its revised acquisition plan ASAP). [Likely]
- Cap JF-17 at 150, and add 50-60 J-11(around 3-4 squardons). This will give Pakistan new capabilities. Deep Strike / Long Duration Combat Air Patrol(over sea). [Ideal but unlikely due to cost]
- Cap JF-17 at 150, and add 50-60 J-10(around 3-4 squardons). This is unlikely because PAF probably will not consider it worth the investment to induct a new platform which hardly gives any new capability. J-10s will only be filling in for F-16s PAF was not able to acquire. Another thing to consider is that by the time J-10s arrive it will be time for 5th Gen already. Had J-10s arrived in 2015/17 it would have made sense.[Unlikely]
Also while we all wish for PAF to have best equipment available, we need to remember PAF is primarily a defensive force. Yes they may carry out some strikes but those will be against shallow targets aimed at allowing PAF some freedom over battlefield to support PA. So bulk of PAF war effort will be Air Defense Sorties.