I had made my views clear in another thread as to why nuclear reactors is not the right way to go for Pakistan. I will try and make a detailed assesment here in order to further my assertion with some facts!
Costs:
Moody's Investors Service conservative estimate is of between $5,000 and $6,000/kWe (final or "all-in" cost). Due to increase in comodity prices, this could go up further by 20-30%.
The reported prices at six new pressurized water reactors are indicative of costs for that type of plant and should give an idea of the investment required:
February 2008 — For two new AP1000 reactors at its Turkey Point site Florida Power & Light calculated overnight capital cost from $2444 to $3582 per kW, which were grossed up to include cooling towers, site works, land costs, transmission costs and risk management for total costs of $3108 to $4540 per kilowatt. Adding in finance charges increased the overall figures to $5780 to $8071 per kW.
March 2008 — For two new AP1000 reactors in Florida Progress Energy announced that if built within 18 months of each other, the cost for the first would be $5144 per kilowatt and the second $3376/kW - total $9.4 billion. Including land, plant components, cooling towers, financing costs, license application, regulatory fees, initial fuel for two units, owner's costs, insurance and taxes, escalation and contingencies the total would be about
$14 billion.
May 2008 — For two new AP1000 reactors at the Virgil C. Summer Nuclear Generating Station in South Carolina South Carolina Electric and Gas Co. and Santee Cooper expected to
pay $9.8 billion (which includes forecast inflation and owners' costs for site preparation, contingencies and project financing).
November 2008 — For two new AP1000 reactors at its Lee site Duke Energy Carolinas raised the
cost estimate to $11 billion, excluding finance and inflation, but apparently including other owners costs.
November 2008 — For two new AP1000 reactors at its Bellefonte site TVA updated its estimates for overnight capital cost estimates ranged to $2516 to $4649/kW for a combined construction cost of $5.6 to 10.4 billion (
total costs of $9.9 to $17.5 billion).
On April 9, 2008, Georgia Power Company reached a contract agreement for two AP1000 reactors to be built at Vogtle,[16] at an estimated final
cost of $14 billion plus $3 billion for necessary transmission upgrades.
Note: Data compiled from "Economics of nuclear power" WNA-2009
(Compare this with the cost of constructing NG power plants or coal power plants which for the same capacity of 2000 ~ 2200 MW would require 2.5 to 3.5 billion USD!!)
Next let us look at the
time frames (construction)
Modern nuclear power plants are planned for construction in four years or less (42 months for CANDU ACR-1000, 60 months from order to operation for an AP1000, 48 months from first concrete to operation for an EPR and 45 months for an ESBWR) as opposed to over a decade for some previous plants. However, most new plants under construction (such as finland EPR) are facing delays and other issues.
Read this !!
OL3 EPR wipes out AREVA profits - Nuclear Reaction - A Greenpeace blog about nuclear power
Compare this with the well proven track record (more or less) of NG & coal fired plants which require 2-3 years (max) to build (same capacity) and are more or less in budget.
With the Iran-Pakistan pipeline finalized, it would be prudent for pakistan to go for Gas based power plants which reduce transportation costs (pipelines), provide improved efficiency, easier growth opportunities, less issues wrt waste disposal and finally, highly economical!
IMO, nuclear deal for Pakistan does not provide with energy incentives unless countries decide to make such plants for free!
