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[Updated May 2023] Israel Strikes Gaza Again

Will the ongoing escalation develop into a full blown 3rd Intifida?

  • Yes

    Votes: 15 36.6%
  • No

    Votes: 26 63.4%

  • Total voters
    41
  • Poll closed .
Israeli meeting currently undergoing security assessment says its continuing the strikes on Hamas targets in Gaza and Lebanon.

Israeli reinforcements sent to Gaza and Lebanon borders which includes troops/reservists and artillery.
 
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My Analysis of current situation:

Israel feels outsmarted and humiliated by Hamas and potentially Hezbollah. This strategy goes back to 2021 when a new equation around Jerusalem was introduced. Which was allowing Hamas or turning blind eye to Palestinian fighters firing some rockets from Lebanon when Jerusalem/Gaza are under attack. This forces Israel to take into account both fronts and spreads its army/resources thin. And helps deter Israel from undergoing a ground invasion in Gaza.

Fyi, leading up to this, Hamas mislead the Israeli intelligence community by playing up the rhetoric suggesting an imminent operation from Gaza in coming days, but instead a surprise came from Hamas in Lebanon.

Today, we saw the equation into play. And Israel feels humiliated. Now they did air strikes inside Lebanon and moving reinforcements to both Gazan and Lebanese borders. They will try to break this equation which means in coming hours we could see an increase in magnitude of strikes on Gaza and Lebanon, and can't rule out attempted assassination attempts on Palestinian officials in Syria, Gaza, and potentially Lebanon.

This puts Hezbollah in a difficult position, if it continues to escalate, Hezbollah could find itself needing to step in, for an intense conflict lasting a few days. Either way, it shows Hamas(mostly) & Hezbollah may be able to force some offensive equations on Israel as opposed to just defensive, as in the past. Especially, if Israel now backs down....
 
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My Analysis(continued):

Part of reason this equation was introduced is because Hamas and Hezbollah recognize their is a limit to what Gaza can do, militarily, due to un-strategic terrain and small size of Gaza, as well as Gaza being land-locked. And the only way around this is for Hamas to have a military presence in Lebanon to give it more strategic depth. For Hezbollah, they are probably uneasy about all of this as this is a new approach and they are still assessing Israeli reactions and how Israel will approach this equation , with an equation of their one, which will ultimately determine whether Hezbollah will continue being onboard/or turning blind eye to Hamas's activity in Lebanon. From a strategic standpoint, however, it makes a lot of sense for Hamas and is effective for them. For Lebanese, they are going to decide to what extent they will stand behind Hamas/enable it's activity in Lebanon. Which is to be determined in coming days/weeks/months.

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Hezbollah seems to have been okay with Lebanese army confiscating Palestinian weapons/rocket launchers. As Lebanese army just tweeted it prevented a further rocket strike. Could mean Hezbollah is uncomfortable with magnitude of Hamas strike out of Lebanon earlier today. Not sure if Hamas cares or not:

 
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Israel is going to attempt a assassination of Hamas/PIJ officials in Gaza or abroad. They just want the next two days to be calm so Israeli's can finish celebrating Passover holiday. The JOR will likely fire more rockets tomorrow and in next few days on behalf of Jerusalem but also to hinder any element of surprise - advantage that the Israeli army is gonna try to gain. Them moving reinforcements to Gaza/Lebanese border also suggests this. Palestinian factions must stay on high alert over few weeks.
 
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Reports of a joint operations room established between Iran's IRGC, Lebanon's Islamic Resistance HezbOllah, Palestinian Hamas and Islamic Jihad movements.

Coordination within the Resistance front appears to be going well.



Lebanon’s Hezbollah hosts Hamas chief as rockets fly over Israel border


The delegation has reportedly discussed efforts to coordinate action against Israel.

Beatrice Farhat
April 6, 2023

The Palestinian Hamas movement's leader Ismail Haniyeh flashes the victory sign following a speech at a public rally during his visit to the southern Lebanese city of Saida, on June 26, 2022. (Photo by MAHMOUD ZAYYAT / AFP) (Photo by MAHMOUD ZAYYAT/AFP via Getty Images)

The Palestinian Hamas movement's leader Ismail Haniyeh flashes the victory sign following a speech at a public rally during his visit to the southern Lebanese city of Saida, on June 26, 2022. - MAHMOUD ZAYYAT/AFP via Getty Images

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BEIRUT — As Israel staves off rocket attacks launched from the Gaza Strip and Lebanon's border in an apparent response to the escalation in Jerusalem’s Al-Aqsa Mosque — Islam's third holiest site — a Hamas delegation led by the head of the movement’s political bureau, Ismail Haniyeh, arrived in Beirut on Wednesday.

Hamas spokesman in Lebanon Walid Kilani said in a statement that Haniyeh headed to Lebanon on a “private visit” aimed to “coordinate positions and strengthen the resistance against the Israeli enemy.” This is Haniyeh's second visit to Lebanon in less than a year.

Haniyeh’s trip follows a series of meetings Hezbollah Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah held with delegations from Hamas and the Islamic Jihad in previous months, Kilani added.

It remains unclear if Haniyeh will meet with Lebanese officials. But according to Lebanese journalist Souhayb Jawhar, the Hamas official is scheduled to hold talks with Nasrallah and Nabih Berri, head of the Shiite Amal movement.

Jawhar, citing well-informed sources, said in a tweet that the visit comes as part of efforts to activate the joint operations room between Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps, Hezbollah, Hamas and the Islamic Jihad.

The four parties — known as the axis of resistance — formed a joint operations room in May 2021, according to a Brookings report. Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar revealed in a documentary shown on Al Jazeera in 2022 that the operations room was based in Lebanon and had previously coordinated the activities of these groups during the two battles between Israel and Gaza factions in 2021 and 2022.

Hamas’ stopover in Lebanon coincides with a salvo of rockets fired from southern Lebanon toward Israel on Thursday afternoon. The Israeli army said in a tweet that 34 rockets were launched from Lebanon, with 25 intercepted over northern Israel and at least four landing inside Israeli territory. Israel's ambulance service said at least three Israeli civilians were injured by shrapnel from the rockets.

The Israeli army responded with artillery fire across the border.

Speaking to al-Araby al-Jadeed, a source from Iran-backed Hezbollah — which fought a war with Israel in 2006 — denied any responsibility for the attack. Three security sources told Reuters that Palestinian factions in Lebanon are believed to be behind the attack.

Meanwhile, Palestinian factions in Gaza also fired a barrage of rockets toward southern Israel.

The rocket attacks follow a new round of violence at Al-Aqsa Mosque after Israeli police stormed the holy site, sacred for both Muslims and Jews, on Wednesday and arrested at least 300 Palestinians. Violence and clashes continued throughout Wednesday night after Israeli police conducted another raid as worshippers were holding prayers at the mosque. The violence comes during the Muslim holy month of Ramadan, also coinciding with the Jewish Passover holiday.

Hezbollah has condemned the Israeli attacks on Al-Aqsa Mosque. “Hezbollah proclaims its full solidarity with the Palestinian people and the resistance groups, and pledges that it will stand with them in all measures they take to protect worshippers and the Al-Aqsa Mosque and to deter the enemy from continuing its attacks,” the movement said in a statement on Wednesday.

In a separate development, a Qatari delegation headed by Assistant Foreign Minister for Regional Affairs Mohammed bin Abdulaziz bin Saleh al-Khulaifi was in Lebanon this week holding meetings with Lebanese officials as part of efforts to break the political impasse and end the presidential vacuum in the country.

Lebanon has been without a president since Michel Aoun’s term ended in October 2022, while parliament has repeatedly failed to agree on a candidate amid growing division among rival parties.

The Qatari delegation met, among other officials, with Mohammed Raad, head of Hezbollah’s parliamentary bloc.

Details of the meetings, however, were kept secret as the Qatari diplomat insisted that no information be leaked to the media, according to the Kuwaiti al-Qabas daily newspaper.
But according to information obtained by the local MTV news channel, Raad informed Khulaifi of his movement’s unconditional support for Suleiman Frangieh as president. The presidential seat in Lebanon's confessional system is held by a Maronite Christian.

“No party can bring in another president without the approval of the party (Hezbollah),” he reportedly said.

The majority of parliamentarians have refused to support Frangieh, an ally of Syria’s Assad family, and he is not backed by any of the Christian parties in parliament.

 
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Jew boys have struck Lebanon and Gaza.
 
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Hamas fires 34 rockets from Lebanon towards Israel​


(April 6, 2023 / JNS) The Gaza Strip-based Hamas terrorist group fired 34 rockets from southern Lebanon towards northern Israel on Thursday, in the biggest attack emanating from the Hezbollah-controlled country since the 2006 war.
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Two Israeli women killed following West Bank shooting attack, officials say

Two Israeli women have been killed and another Israeli is seriously wounded in the shooting attack near the West Bank settlement of Hamra in the northern West Bank, officials say.
According to the ZAKA emergency service and local officials, two of the three victims in the attack have died.
The military says troops are searching for suspects who opened fire at the car, causing it to crash.
 
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