Unemployment Rate Highest In 45 Years, Reveals Stalled Report: 10 Points

[beijingwalker]

Ok i will take your gospel as fact , please don't crucify me oh holy warrior !!

I'm an atheist.

 

[Nilgiri]

The average number coming into the Indian job market is 13 million a year.

Not really, that assumes somewhere in the region of 75% of the relevant population pyramid brackets "needing" a job....whereas the marginal propensity trends within India especially for women (who's LFPR is actually dropping for a while now) say quite differently.

NSSO for example put the labour force gross increase at around 8.6 million annually in the 1993 - 2004 period...and around 4.6 million annually for 2012 - 2018.

It can be seen in that the unemployment levels among the youth tends to settle at lower level at 25+ years:

https://www.ilo.org/wcmsp5/groups/p...w_delhi/documents/publication/wcms_496510.pdf

Take even the worst rate out of these for argument sake: 18% (urban females in the 20 - 24 age group in the years 2011-12).

Does that ratio sound closer to a denominator of 13 million required jobs a year (of which you say around 5 million are fulfilled by formal and informal sectors combined...i.e implying unemployment of 60%)...or is the denominator far closer to 4.6 million annually that NSSO had for the subsequent year range (2012 - 2018)?

LFPR counts for a lot (it is not consistent across age groups which is the faulty assumption made by Rajan and others when they say India needs 12 million new jobs a year on basis of 75% average LFPR for the relevant age brackets at hand).

Part of the dynamics here are actually in another ILO paper that focuses in more among youth employment patterns given they have schooling/training etc as competing activities for their time in this age group more than any other in other adult age groups...and thus the very way they get registered as "seeking employment" is quite a different pattern (esp transient reporting which plays into the underemployment stuff agian)....compared to older age (as seen when 25+ kicks in here and consolidated past that).

More on some of the numbers here:

https://www.financialexpress.com/op...-than-5-million-says-surjit-s-bhalla/1433891/

More studies on India's LFPR (and broadly underemployment more generally) are needed as to the relevance of it to the larger economy and social stability in the short, mid and long term esp on qualitative level. That data is lacking. Its just another thing we need more data streams for.

 

[Gadkari]

I'm an atheist.

Who says atheists don't have gospels ?

 

[Nilgiri]

Or, as Mark Twain said, "there are lies, damned lies and statistics".

In my opinion, there are two ways to use statistics. One is to look at all the available data and try to decipher what they mean in context. The other way is to make up one's mind first and then go looking only for those data that support the preconceived conclusion. The former is hard to do correctly; the latter is the one used almost exclusively on PDF.

Heh I indulge in both...former one to give me the neutral level grounding I sorely crave....and the latter one so I can anticipate some of the punches the rancorous mob or a few devilish crafty opponents (depending on the situation at hand) may throw my way ...as a punch dodged sets up my counter punch all the better.

Since you mentioned the fiscal deficit, you do realise how the genius Jaitley is doing with his target to reduce the fiscal deficit? And what arm-twisting is going on even as we speak for a face-saving windfall gain to neutralise the margin of failure?

When you get back to the thread my friend. Do post that stuff here for discussion. Fiscal deficit calc/laundering is not so unknown in India...and there are larger balance and checks that contain and helm how much can be done (remember nothing of the scales required can be completely hidden...esp those that watch from the outside...similar to how many of those same voices say China's growth rate is over-estimated by a percentage point or so)

 

[Sam.]

Heh I indulge in both...former one to give me the neutral level grounding I sorely crave....and the latter one so I can anticipate some of the punches the rancorous mob or a few devilish crafty opponents (depending on the situation at hand) may throw my way ...as a punch dodged sets up my counter punch all the better.



When you get back to the thread my friend. Do post that stuff here for discussion. Fiscal deficit calc/laundering is not so unknown in India...and there are larger balance and checks that contain and helm how much can be done (remember nothing of the scales required can be completely hidden...esp those that watch from the outside...similar to how many of those same voices say China's growth rate is over-estimated by a percentage point or so)

I want you to look at Consumption tally in 2018-19 and see for yourself (NDTV is spreading fake news). I will post 2010 and 2017 (Key Indicators) for reference and lets dance -

Lets see Digital revolution -

 

[Dungeness]

I don't agree with most of this. Darling? LOL. We had a US carrier group sail up to us threatening military intervention at one point...the same US that asked you if you wouldn't be so nice as to intervene as well in the North East....or gave you ample backing to invade Vietnam in 1979....as @Viva_Viet often describes in this forum

You simply perceive something as you choose to do so. You have no absolute vantage point, no one does. 13 years later is definitely a significant part of it (especially with capital good/capacity inertia taken into account)....that cannot exactly be underplayed either.

There are many deep problems in China as well, like there is with any large country....or even medium sized ones and good number of small ones. What you pick and choose as some priority of what is and isn't is different what others do.....be they western, India, Vietnamese, Japanese, African or whatever.....or even other Chinese....like the one that got jailed severely for putting graffiti of "Down with CPC" or whatever. Big priority for you guys (or at least govt) to go after ppl like that, not so much one outside of China. See what I mean?

If you want to try prove anything, bring the data and logic...the more standardised it is, the more conclusive it will be.....I do not care for vague identity politics and emotional superiority/inferiority projection. But that is what majority of this forum operates on.

Putting a Chinese who wrote "Down with CPC" in jail is not different from arresting an Indian lady clicking "like" on her friend's Facebook deemed "anti National", but this is not the "deeper problem" I was referring to.

Obviously you and I are not on the same wave length, and I don't want to get another negative from the Indian mod, so I just rest my case here.

By the way, how was the "Clean Up India" campaign going along in India? You and I had a discussion about those countless "xxx India" campaigns 3 years ago, and my point was "Education India" should have been one of them. You told me I would see the result of "Clean Up India" in 2019.

 

[Gadkari]

Putting a Chinese who wrote "Down with CPC" in jail is not different from arresting an Indian lady clicking "like" on her friend's Facebook deemed "anti National", but this is not the "deeper problem" I was referring to.

Obviously you and I are not on the same wave length, and I don't want to get another negative from the Indian mod, so I just rest my case here.

By the way, how was the "Clean Up India" campaign going along in India? You and I had a discussion about those countless "xxx India" campaigns 3 years ago, and my point was "Education India" should have been one of them. You told me I would see the result of "Clean Up India" in 2019.

Indians arrested for clicking a tweet gets bail and are free teh next day, if not the same day.

Same is not true for a chinese.

An Indian boy who tweeted about muhammed after Hindu gods were mocked, has been sentenced to 10 years in prison in Saudi Arabia.

India is today 96% open defecation free due to "clean up India" campaign.

 

[Nilgiri]

Putting a Chinese who wrote "Down with CPC" in jail is not different from arresting an Indian lady clicking "like" on her friend's Facebook deemed "anti National", but this is not the "deeper problem" I was referring to.

Obviously you and I are not on the same wave length, and I don't want to get another negative from the Indian mod, so I just rest my case here.

By the way, how was the "Clean Up India" campaign going along in India? You and I had a discussion about those countless "xxx India" campaigns 3 years ago, and my point was "Education India" should have been one of them. You told me I would see the result of "Clean Up India" in 2019.

Yes lets agree to disagree friend. I come from the place, you see what is filtered to you. Likewise you come from China, I see what is filtered to me. It's really that simple in the end.

If you want a 3rd party opinion on Swach Bharat (Clean India), UNICEF is a good resource:

https://www.business-standard.com/a...cal-time-in-swachh-bharat-118100700641_1.html

http://www.unicefrosa-progressreport.org/opendefecation.html

The map and projection UNICEF used (end 2017) is based largely on what was reported here at the time:

https://sbm.gov.in/sbmdashboard/

A large UNICEF report I believe is scheduled this year with more vetted data from their end regarding 2017 and 2018. An earlier usage survey found the (built capacity usage) rate at around 90% I believe.

https://www.downtoearth.org.in/blog...of-swachh-bharat-mission-remains-unsure-62166

More than 94 per cent rural households in India have been provided toilets as of September 27 2018, according to the government portal of Swachh Bharat Mission Gramin (SBM-G). The Centre is confident that the entire country will be declared open defecation free (ODF) much before the deadline of October 2, 2019. Apart from the fact that 24 states are already ODF, even in conventionally backward states like UP and Madhya Pradesh, more than 99 per cent households own functional toilets. In fact, 93 per cent people owning toilets actually use them regularly, according to the National Annual Rural Sanitation Survey (NARSS), conducted between mid-November 2017 and March 2018.

(This article has good analysis of the problem areas remaining in both analysis and policy ...thus need for adaptation of course corrective measures).

A more rosy take:

https://www.livemint.com/Opinion/T6...arat-Mission-a-remarkable-transformation.html

 

[Han Patriot]

Very rarely do we get a problem enunciated and immediately illustrated. It looks like we will be better and stronger under the constant Chinese fanboy bashing.




What a contrast to the strong silent Chinese. How I wish we had a few of those on PDF instead of the present unrepresentative bunch, afflicted as they are with verbal diarrhoea. Talk of twisting an iron bar just by talking.



Think.

Hint: what if significant numbers of Indians are employed abroad?

You are comparing bashings from a few Chinos to the western Western media onslaught? Well based on the thickness of Indian facial skin, I doubt any bashing can change anything. You will just come out with some more excuse, like the unemployed are working overseas. So convenient. The power of the Indian mouth, you just can't argue with them. Precisely why they won't and can't solve the problem.

Putting a Chinese who wrote "Down with CPC" in jail is not different from arresting an Indian lady clicking "like" on her friend's Facebook deemed "anti National", but this is not the "deeper problem" I was referring to.

Obviously you and I are not on the same wave length, and I don't want to get another negative from the Indian mod, so I just rest my case here.

By the way, how was the "Clean Up India" campaign going along in India? You and I had a discussion about those countless "xxx India" campaigns 3 years ago, and my point was "Education India" should have been one of them. You told me I would see the result of "Clean Up India" in 2019.

I can post the latest stat from Indian sources showing almost 400-500 million open defectors. According to our Bhai's here 96% are shitting correctly. . While you are at it, why not make it 99%?

 

[Dungeness]

I can post the latest stat from Indian sources showing almost 400-500 million open defectors. According to our Bhai's here 96% are shitting correctly. . While you are at it, why not make it 99%?

I read some of links, and it looks like he cheery-picked the most favorable number (among many conflict statistics for the number of dry pit installed), but the actual ground reality as how to sustain them was not his concern. This campaign is more or less like what China did in Great Leap Forward in 50's, every village reported a dazzling steel production number. Anyway, "Clean India" was not only about the number of toilet to begin with.

I do believe India made some progress here, even though they won't able to meet the initial target by this February. Let's give them some credit for that.

 

[Sam.]

Yes lets agree to disagree friend. I come from the place, you see what is filtered to you. Likewise you come from China, I see what is filtered to me. It's really that simple in the end.

If you want a 3rd party opinion on Swach Bharat (Clean India), UNICEF is a good resource:

https://www.business-standard.com/a...cal-time-in-swachh-bharat-118100700641_1.html

http://www.unicefrosa-progressreport.org/opendefecation.html

The map and projection UNICEF used (end 2017) is based largely on what was reported here at the time:

https://sbm.gov.in/sbmdashboard/

A large UNICEF report I believe is scheduled this year with more vetted data from their end regarding 2017 and 2018. An earlier usage survey found the (built capacity usage) rate at around 90% I believe.

https://www.downtoearth.org.in/blog...of-swachh-bharat-mission-remains-unsure-62166

More than 94 per cent rural households in India have been provided toilets as of September 27 2018, according to the government portal of Swachh Bharat Mission Gramin (SBM-G). The Centre is confident that the entire country will be declared open defecation free (ODF) much before the deadline of October 2, 2019. Apart from the fact that 24 states are already ODF, even in conventionally backward states like UP and Madhya Pradesh, more than 99 per cent households own functional toilets. In fact, 93 per cent people owning toilets actually use them regularly, according to the National Annual Rural Sanitation Survey (NARSS), conducted between mid-November 2017 and March 2018.

(This article has good analysis of the problem areas remaining in both analysis and policy ...thus need for adaptation of course corrective measures).

A more rosy take:
https://www.livemint.com/Opinion/T6...arat-Mission-a-remarkable-transformation.html

Lets dance more -

 

[Han Patriot]

I read some of links, and it looks like he cheery-picked the most favorable number (among many conflict statistics for the number of dry pit installed), but the actual ground reality as how to sustain them was not his concern. This campaign is more or less like what China did in Great Leap Forward in 50's, every village reported a dazzling steel production number. Anyway, "Clean India" was not only about the number of toilet to begin with.

I do believe India made some progress here, even though they won't able to meet the initial target by this February. Let's give them some credit for that.

I have been to Bangalore, even in the cities, I can see people doing their daily business in the morning from my hotel window. I can count them and they have a routine. I mean can't you just build a shack with a small outflow to somrwhere. At least that's what we had in China when we were dirt poor, at least some sense of decency. It appears these people are inherently immune to shame.

 

[Nilgiri]

I read some of links, and it looks like he cheery-picked the most favorable number (among many conflict statistics for the number of dry pit installed), but the actual ground reality as how to sustain them was not his concern. This campaign is more or less like what China did in Great Leap Forward in 50's, every village reported a dazzling steel production number. Anyway, "Clean India" was not only about the number of toilet to begin with.

I do believe India made some progress here, even though they won't able to meet the initial target by this February. Let's give them some credit for that.

Friend, that is rude you talk in 3rd person about me with some known troll when I am right here...and you can just address this to me directly.

I gave a specific link (2nd last one with the usage survey) talking about the very issue you bring here...and I would have been interested in exploring what the range of deployed reality is (given further things I have seen in say twitter concerning dedicated workshops and woman's/rural action teams and so on...specifically arranged, integrated and oriented as midterm and long term course-correction to address usage and the long term behavioural change)....and also how the upcoming UNICEF survey results will take this into account (given it surveys usage rather than access).

But it seems you have made up your mind already so no real point. It is ironic you bring up China "great leap forward", given same UNICEF (and other standardised 3rd parties) reporting on China's sanitation challenges (getting from unimproved to basic level...i.e mostly pit latrine transition to flush style/septic etc)...UNICEF says unimproved in China is at about 25%...so I would advise you not to demean the 350 million of your countrymen who are using dry pit latrines and equivalents....just to try get at India someway...given India is appropriately using this as interim stepping stone phase (under the auspices of Mr. P Iyer who previously was instrumental in the same campaign regarding Vietnam earlier) to put an end to OD...just like Bangladesh (who I give flak on many things broadly, including various statistics and claims where appropriate) has successfully done for example and is somewhat role model in the region for it (getting from 0th default to 1st stage to cut down drastically on the main negative vectors with optimal investment). @Mage @Tanveer666 @Joe Shearer @Atlas @jamahir

Sorry to disappoint you but this stuff will not be (for multiple reasons concerning program transparency and reach) great leap forward style of failure concerning backyard steel production and the likes . A better comparison would be barefoot doctor program which was a (phased to resources available at the time) success in China.

I have been to

Uh huh, sure you have troll. Honest and humble people like @GS Zhou I can believe. You have a massive proven dishonesty problem and big ego chip on your shoulder. Your words mean zilch....this thread is yet again ample proof of your trolling for sake of trolling....in the style of " @jhungary cannot be Chinese, I will call him and prove it!!!!" ....and we all know what happened next i.e "Apologies...apologies"

 

[Dungeness]

Friend, that is rude you talk in 3rd person about me with some known troll when I am right here...and you can just address this to me directly.

You got it wrong, my friend. I was referring to the person who quoted "96% open defecation free". I "liked" your post that had more throughout info. Sorry for the confusion.

 

[Han Patriot]

Friend, that is rude you talk in 3rd person about me with some known troll when I am right here...and you can just address this to me directly.

I gave a specific link (2nd last one with the usage survey) talking about the very issue you bring here...and I would have been interested in exploring what the range of deployed reality is (given further things I have seen in say twitter concerning dedicated workshops and woman's/rural action teams and so on...specifically arranged, integrated and oriented as midterm and long term course-correction to address usage and the long term behavioural change)....and also how the upcoming UNICEF survey results will take this into account (given it surveys usage rather than access).

But it seems you have made up your mind already so no real point. It is ironic you bring up China "great leap forward", given same UNICEF (and other standardised 3rd parties) reporting on China's sanitation challenges (getting from unimproved to basic level...i.e mostly pit latrine transition to flush style/septic etc)...UNICEF says unimproved in China is at about 25%...so I would advise you not to demean the 350 million of your countrymen who are using dry pit latrines and equivalents....just to try get at India someway...given India is appropriately using this as interim stepping stone phase (under the auspices of Mr. P Iyer who previously was instrumental in the same campaign regarding Vietnam earlier) to put an end to OD...just like Bangladesh (who I give flak on many things broadly, including various statistics and claims where appropriate) has successfully done for example and is somewhat role model in the region for it (getting from 0th default to 1st stage to cut down drastically on the main negative vectors with optimal investment). @Mage @Tanveer666 @Joe Shearer @Atlas @jamahir

Sorry to disappoint you but this stuff will not be (for multiple reasons concerning program transparency and reach) great leap forward style of failure concerning backyard steel production and the likes . A better comparison would be barefoot doctor program which was a (phased to resources available at the time) success in China.



Uh huh, sure you have troll. Honest and humble people like @GS Zhou I can believe. You have a massive proven dishonesty problem and big ego chip on your shoulder. Your words mean zilch....this thread is yet again ample proof of your trolling for sake of trolling....in the style of " @jhungary cannot be Chinese, I will call him and prove it!!!!" ....and we all know what happened next i.e "Apologies...apologies"

Hahahaha, here comes the cheer leader invoking jhungary again. So everytime you lose a debate, you are gonna invoke his name and Pooh Bear? Hahahaha

I am not lying about Bangalore, there are pockets of modernity and nice structures surrounded by a sea of 3rd world infra. Piped water is nearly non existent.