Ukraine tells EU leaders: Prepare for war with Russia

[QWECXZ]

The point is they can not risk to nuke Iran, because Iran is close to Russia and Russia needs independent Iran. Because if Iran falls - USA will get access to Caspian sea. Next day after being nuked Iran will sign defence pact with Russia - and the whole action make no sense for the West.
Actually Russia's support did a lot in Belorussia. And if Yanukovich had guts as Lukashenko does, he would accept Russian support in 2014 and there will be nor civil war here.

Well, believe it or not, the general consensus in Iran is that if there will ever be a military conflict between Iran and the United States, or one of our regional adversaries, Russia and China will maintain a neutral stance. Some believe that Russia can even turn against us, provided that her interests can be guaranteed. They may act according to their present and short term interests, not an alliance with us.

There are several good reasons for why Iran hasn't been nuked yet. First of all, nuking a country that can kill millions of people is not something that you wake up some day and decide that today you want to kill millions of human beings. If a city like Tehran gets nuked, millions of people will die or get severely injured and permanently disabled. The picture that will be sent to the world is that all states should move towards nuclear arms because the taboo has been broken. All international treaties that are securing the current world order will immediately lose their legitimacy. That's by far the most important reason that Iran is not going to be nuked any time soon. At least not before there's a reliable defense against nuclear weapons.

Imagine a world where everyone wants to be armed with nuclear weapons. In fact, it is quite easy to obtain nuclear weapons once the taboo is broken. Countries with huge uranium reserves will no longer agree to sell their uranium to world powers, they will prefer to keep them or utilize them on their own. That alone is enough reason for world powers not to try this sort of insanity.

Secondly, Iran is a threshold nuclear state. Our breakout time is 3 weeks at the moment and can be reduced further if we go full strength at it. So, unless they plan to completely wipe Iran off the map, which is impossible without the use of thousands of mega-tonne nukes which will greatly deplete their strategic nuke reserves, they will not take the risk of nuclear revenge by Iran just for fun.

Ukraine is infested with European ideology of freedom and democracy with a government that does not stop it from spreading. Belarus has a dictator that fights that. Again, it was the stupidity of the Ukrainians themselves that brought this misery upon themselves unfortunately. I cannot say Lukashenko is doing wonders either. If I want to list my favorite dictators in the world, Sasha won't be in top 5. And the list of dictators is shrinking each year.

 

[vostok]

You put to much trust on Nukes thinking it would be your last hail-mary but you are completely mistaken here and you could be defeated rather easily you will hit multiple areas but you will get hit back and eventually you will have to engage in conventional battles and you could be attacked not only from your western border, but South, east, and behind you including north after firing couple of nukes it will become the beginning of the end as incursions will come from all directions that is the mistake of putting to much trust on nukes as if it will safe you..

Russian nuclear arsenal is saving this world from WW3 since 1949. And it is still working. West has no real armies. Only USA has. But USA will have war on multiple fronts because of their greedy to be world tyrant. Russia has 30000 tactical nukes to stop any invasion for 100's times.

 

[Titanium100]

Russian nuclear arsenal is saving this world from WW3 since 1949. And it is still working. West has no real armies. Only USA has. But USA will have war on multiple fronts because of their greedy to be world tyrant. Russia has 30000 tactical nukes to stop any invasion for 100's times.

We will have to agree to disagree there. I agree there is 30k tacticals but they will not be able to alter anything if you get EMP'ed and your satellites are down. Shxt is gonna get absolutely mess but having a big stockpile will not become the deciding factor but these who have formidble coalitions will own the day

 

[Titanium100]

Kiev’s attempt to use force in Donbass would be step to new disaster - Kremlin spokesman
NATO weapons are being pumped into Ukraine, Dmitry Peskov noted

MOSCOW, November 18./TASS/. Attempts by the Ukrainian authorities to resolve the conflict in Donbass by force would be a move towards another disaster, Kremlin Spokesman Dmitry Peskov told Channel One on Thursday.

"NATO weapons are being pumped into Ukraine," he told the TV channel. "All this encourages hotheads to think about trying to solve the Donbass problem through force in conditions when the Minsk agreements are stalled, that is to make one more step towards a new disaster," Peskov said.

https://tass.com/politics/1363541

 

[MH.Yang]

Well, believe it or not, the general consensus in Iran is that if there will ever be a military conflict between Iran and the United States, or one of our regional adversaries, Russia and China will maintain a neutral stance. Some believe that Russia can even turn against us, provided that her interests can be guaranteed. They may act according to their present and short term interests, not an alliance with us.

There are several good reasons for why Iran hasn't been nuked yet. First of all, nuking a country that can kill millions of people is not something that you wake up some day and decide that today you want to kill millions of human beings. If a city like Tehran gets nuked, millions of people will die or get severely injured and permanently disabled. The picture that will be sent to the world is that all states should move towards nuclear arms because the taboo has been broken. All international treaties that are securing the current world order will immediately lose their legitimacy. That's by far the most important reason that Iran is not going to be nuked any time soon. At least not before there's a reliable defense against nuclear weapons.

Imagine a world where everyone wants to be armed with nuclear weapons. In fact, it is quite easy to obtain nuclear weapons once the taboo is broken. Countries with huge uranium reserves will no longer agree to sell their uranium to world powers, they will prefer to keep them or utilize them on their own. That alone is enough reason for world powers not to try this sort of insanity.

Secondly, Iran is a threshold nuclear state. Our breakout time is 3 weeks at the moment and can be reduced further if we go full strength at it. So, unless they plan to completely wipe Iran off the map, which is impossible without the use of thousands of mega-tonne nukes which will greatly deplete their strategic nuke reserves, they will not take the risk of nuclear revenge by Iran just for fun.

Ukraine is infested with European ideology of freedom and democracy with a government that does not stop it from spreading. Belarus has a dictator that fights that. Again, it was the stupidity of the Ukrainians themselves that brought this misery upon themselves unfortunately. I cannot say Lukashenko is doing wonders either. If I want to list my favorite dictators in the world, Sasha won't be in top 5. And the list of dictators is shrinking each year.

Yes. If the USA invades Iran, China will only prevent the USA from using the name of the UN, but China will not join the war. However, China has the ability to let the USA fight a 20+year war in Iran and use this war to make the USA lose world hegemony.
We are not good people. We will use you to destroy the USA for the benefit of China. After decades of guerrilla warfare, the USA is bound to decline, and Iran will be like Iraq and Syria. Israel, which has lost the support of the USA, is bound to decline. And the Middle East is likely to become the Middle East of Arabs.
Obviously, the Iranians will not like this ending, and neither will the Americans. So, the USA will not invade Iran.

 

[QWECXZ]

Yes. If the USA invades Iran, China will only prevent the USA from using the name of the UN, but China will not join the war. However, China has the ability to let the USA fight a 20+year war in Iran and use this war to make the USA lose world hegemony.
We are not good people. We will use you to destroy the USA for the benefit of China. After decades of guerrilla warfare, the USA is bound to decline, and Iran will be like Iraq and Syria. Israel, which has lost the support of the USA, is bound to decline. And the Middle East is likely to become the Middle East of Arabs.

Well, I'm glad that at least you are realistic.
But I don't really know about the invasion of Iran by the US. I mean if it happens (which is extremely unlikely), there will be no war or resistance after that. Iran is not Afghanistan where people are religious and uneducated. The truth is that the West will most likely help Iran get up on her feet, will improve the living conditions of the people by integrating our economy with theirs, and will turn Iran into something like Turkey, just like before the 1979 revolution, provided that we reduce our relations with her enemies.

At that point, many Iranians would prefer to side with the West against Russia and China. Let's not forget that Iran is one of the least religious countries in the region and although a lot of Iranians dislike Britain, the United States, Israel and some European countries, it will be better for us in all aspects (economy, science, military) to be on their side if this regime falls already.
So, for China and Russia, it's pretty much a binary choice. Either Iran defeats the US in such an unlikely war, or Iran will join the US against China and Russia like before the 1979 revolution.

 

[MH.Yang]

Well, I'm glad that at least you are realistic.
But I don't really know about the invasion of Iran by the US. I mean if it happens (which is extremely unlikely), there will be no war or resistance after that. Iran is not Afghanistan where people are religious and uneducated. The truth is that the West will most likely help Iran get up on her feet, will improve the living conditions of the people by integrating our economy with theirs, and will turn Iran into something like Turkey, just like before the 1979 revolution, provided that we reduce our relations with her enemies.

At that point, many Iranians would prefer to side with the West against Russia and China. Let's not forget that Iran is one of the least religious countries in the region and although a lot of Iranians dislike Britain, the United States, Israel and some European countries, it will be better for us in all aspects (economy, science, military) to be on their side if this regime falls already.
So, for China and Russia, it's pretty much a binary choice. Either Iran defeats the US in such an unlikely war, or Iran will join the US against China and Russia like before the 1979 revolution.

This may be a good option for Iran. Although I doubt that the West has the ability to develop Iran's economy, Iranians will have security.

China is not willing to intervene excessively in the chaotic Middle East, nor is it willing to easily participate in a war. Because China has its own plan, China has the ability to get what China wants without war. Therefore, China may be a good economic partner for Iranians. But China is not Iran's reliable military partner. In military terms, Iran should choose Russia.

 

[tower9]

Well, I'm glad that at least you are realistic.
But I don't really know about the invasion of Iran by the US. I mean if it happens (which is extremely unlikely), there will be no war or resistance after that. Iran is not Afghanistan where people are religious and uneducated. The truth is that the West will most likely help Iran get up on her feet, will improve the living conditions of the people by integrating our economy with theirs, and will turn Iran into something like Turkey, just like before the 1979 revolution, provided that we reduce our relations with her enemies.

At that point, many Iranians would prefer to side with the West against Russia and China. Let's not forget that Iran is one of the least religious countries in the region and although a lot of Iranians dislike Britain, the United States, Israel and some European countries, it will be better for us in all aspects (economy, science, military) to be on their side if this regime falls already.
So, for China and Russia, it's pretty much a binary choice. Either Iran defeats the US in such an unlikely war, or Iran will join the US against China and Russia like before the 1979 revolution.

That’s what a lot of iraqis thought would happen after the invasion but look what happened. Iraq is a country in name only.

 

[QWECXZ]

This may be a good option for Iran. Although I doubt that the West has the ability to develop Iran's economy, Iranians will have security.

China is not willing to intervene excessively in the chaotic Middle East, nor is it willing to easily participate in a war. Because China has its own plan, China has the ability to get what China wants without war. Therefore, China may be a good economic partner for Iranians. But China is not Iran's reliable military partner. In military terms, Iran should choose Russia.

Well, you're right but the West also has economic interests that can help Iranian economy grow suddenly and significantly.

Iran currently produces about 2.5 million to 3 million barrels of oil per day. About 1 million to 1.5 million barrels of oil is consumed internally. So, we are exporting nearly 1 million barrels of oil per day under sanctions. Prior to the 1979 revolution, our production was nearly 5 million bpd and our consumption was only 0.5M bpd. So, we were exporting three times more oil 42 years ago.

If Iran gets occupied by the United States, our oil production can reach 15 million barrels per day. I mean why not? If Saudi Arabia can do that, Iran can do that as well. Also, Iran has the world's largest natural gas reserves, comparable only with Russia. We can provide Europe with a safe alternative for natural gas and Russia will be sidelined completely.

Now add to this the huge human resources that Iran can offer to them. 85 million Iranians, many of them are well-educated.

China is a good economic partner for us. But we cannot rely on China or Russia for our security. Both China and Russia supported the UNSC war on Iraq in 2003. They also voted yes to 4 rounds of UNSC sanctions against Iran that put Iran under Chapter VII of the UNSC charter. There is no good reason to be optimistic that they won't repeat it again.

That’s what a lot of iraqis thought would happen after the invasion but look what happened. Iraq is a country in name only.

Well, the economic situation of Iraq did improve actually.

As for our security, Iraq suffers from ethnic and religious tensions. They have been like this for decades. Iranians put patriotism above religion and ethnicity. Arabs have a completely different mentality. I mean look at Afghanistan. Even with Taliban back in power, Afghans are still more united than Iraq was or will be in the near future. Iran is even more united than Afghanistan because Iranians consider themselves the successors of great empires before them.

 

[MH.Yang]

So, for China and Russia, it's pretty much a binary choice. Either Iran defeats the US in such an unlikely war, or Iran will join the US against China and Russia like before the 1979 revolution.

Defeat the US&Israel&Saudi coalition? Do you want a victory like Afghanistan? I don't think you want it. Therefore, Iran should rely on Russia militarily and use Russia to deter the USA. At the same time, it should uses the China economically to develop the Iranian economy and send a dangerous signal to the USA. Now Americans have learned that the USA is no longer able to wage another long-term war. If the Chinese appear in Iran, they will suspect that it is another long-term war, just like what happened to them in the Vietnam War.

 

[MH.Yang]

Well, you're right but the West also has economic interests that can help Iranian economy grow suddenly and significantly.

Iran currently produces about 2.5 million to 3 million barrels of oil per day. About 1 million to 1.5 million barrels of oil is consumed internally. So, we are exporting nearly 1 million barrels of oil per day under sanctions. Prior to the 1979 revolution, our production was nearly 5 million bpd and our consumption was only 0.5M bpd. So, we were exporting three times more oil 42 years ago.

If Iran gets occupied by the United States, our oil production can reach 15 million barrels per day. I mean why not? If Saudi Arabia can do that, Iran can do that as well. Also, Iran has the world's largest natural gas reserves, comparable only with Russia. We can provide Europe with a safe alternative for natural gas and Russia will be sidelined completely.

Now add to this the huge human resources that Iran can offer to them. 85 million Iranians, many of them are well-educated.

China is a good economic partner for us. But we cannot rely on China or Russia for our security. Both China and Russia supported the UNSC war on Iraq in 2003. They also voted yes to 4 rounds of UNSC sanctions against Iran that put Iran under Chapter VII of the UNSC charter. There is no good reason to be optimistic that they won't repeat it again.

Well, the economic situation of Iraq did improve actually.

As for our security, Iraq suffers from ethnic and religious tensions. They have been like this for decades. Iranians put patriotism above religion and ethnicity. Arabs have a completely different mentality. I mean look at Afghanistan. Even with Taliban back in power, Afghans are still more united than Iraq was or will be in the near future. Iran is even more united than Afghanistan because Iranians consider themselves the successors of great empires before them.

If I were Iranian, I also agree that it is in the interests of most Iranians to surrender quickly. From 1920s to 1940s, Iran was a member of the western world. Iran may lose something, but it's better than turning into ruins.

 

[QWECXZ]

Defeat the US&Israel&Saudi coalition? Do you want a victory like Afghanistan? I don't think you want it. Therefore, Iran should rely on Russia militarily and use Russia to deter the USA. At the same time, it should uses the China economically to develop the Iranian economy and send a dangerous signal to the USA. Now Americans have learned that the USA is no longer able to wage another long-term war. If the Chinese appear in Iran, they will suspect that it is another long-term war, just like what happened to them in the Vietnam War.

Not really. A victory for Iran is considered a situation where our enemies are depleted so much after the war that they will leave us alone. Surely, we will be severely damaged too. An Iranian victory in a potential conflict with the United States would be that some of their naval forces would go down, most Arab states fighting against us would lose vital infrastructure not to really change the balance of power in the region, and at the end, they would leave us alone.

Look at the British, for example. They were a headache for us because of oil until they stopped bothering us whatsoever. But this is another matter that can be discussed in a separate thread.

If I were Iranian, I also agree that it is in the interests of most Iranians to surrender quickly. From 1920s to 1940s, Iran was a member of the western world. Iran may lose something, but it's better than turning into ruins.

Indeed. The best option is not always the same and it can change rapidly based on new conditions. The majority of Iranians do not care about who rules Iran, but care about the interests of Iran. My avatar right now is a former diplomat that served during the time of Shah and passed away today and he openly supported Qasem Soleimani and called for expanding our nuclear program against the West.

 

[tower9]

Well, you're right but the West also has economic interests that can help Iranian economy grow suddenly and significantly.

Iran currently produces about 2.5 million to 3 million barrels of oil per day. About 1 million to 1.5 million barrels of oil is consumed internally. So, we are exporting nearly 1 million barrels of oil per day under sanctions. Prior to the 1979 revolution, our production was nearly 5 million bpd and our consumption was only 0.5M bpd. So, we were exporting three times more oil 42 years ago.

If Iran gets occupied by the United States, our oil production can reach 15 million barrels per day. I mean why not? If Saudi Arabia can do that, Iran can do that as well. Also, Iran has the world's largest natural gas reserves, comparable only with Russia. We can provide Europe with a safe alternative for natural gas and Russia will be sidelined completely.

Now add to this the huge human resources that Iran can offer to them. 85 million Iranians, many of them are well-educated.

China is a good economic partner for us. But we cannot rely on China or Russia for our security. Both China and Russia supported the UNSC war on Iraq in 2003. They also voted yes to 4 rounds of UNSC sanctions against Iran that put Iran under Chapter VII of the UNSC charter. There is no good reason to be optimistic that they won't repeat it again.

Well, the economic situation of Iraq did improve actually.

As for our security, Iraq suffers from ethnic and religious tensions. They have been like this for decades. Iranians put patriotism above religion and ethnicity. Arabs have a completely different mentality. I mean look at Afghanistan. Even with Taliban back in power, Afghans are still more united than Iraq was or will be in the near future. Iran is even more united than Afghanistan because Iranians consider themselves the successors of great empires before them.

Although understandable, I think your expectations for a Western oriented Iran are overly optimistic.

Perhaps you think that the US would treat Iran like it did Japan, which was rehabilitated and allowed to become a great economic power. I think that is overly optimistic because of two reasons, the nature of those who devise US policy since then have changed. Before, the US was far more technocratic and logical, now it is ruled by ideological sociopaths who only know how to destroy and not to build nations.

Secondly, Israel is far more influential in US governance today than it was in decades prior.

If Iran were to fall, a united Iran would be considered too much of a threat to the long term dominance of Israel. Sure, perhaps the new government would be temporarily friendly to Israel but they know that if one day Iran was allowed to fully industrialize and become fully developed, it could switch again and become hostile to Israel. Then it would be 10x more dangerous than it is today because by then Iran would be a far richer and more powerful country than Israel.

Therefore what would likely happen is that Iran's government would likely be kept to a weak federation where the Kurds and Azeris and other minorities have significant autonomy and leeway. Sure, the living standards will go up but Iran will be more of a marketplace rather than a true national actor. And that would be the more optimistic scenario. The less optimistic one is that a defeated Iran is completely gutted and left to rot, which is what happened to the Soviet Union after its fall.

 

[MH.Yang]

Not really. A victory for Iran is considered a situation where our enemies are depleted so much after the war that they will leave us alone. Surely, we will be severely damaged too. An Iranian victory in a potential conflict with the United States would be that some of their naval forces would go down, most Arab states fighting against us would lose vital infrastructure not to really change the balance of power in the region, and at the end, they would leave us alone.

Look at the British, for example. They were a headache for us because of oil until they stopped bothering us whatsoever. But this is another matter that can be discussed in a separate thread.

Indeed. The best option is not always the same and it can change rapidly based on new conditions. The majority of Iranians do not care about who rules Iran, but care about the interests of Iran. My avatar right now is a former diplomat that served during the time of Shah and passed away today and he openly supported Qasem Soleimani and called for expanding our nuclear program against the West.

We all agree that a new Middle East war is not in the interests of Iranians. But we need not be so pessimistic. The Chinese believe that war is always the last means to achieve the goal, and winning without war is the best way to win.
I think there is another possibility. Iran can strive to maintain peace and the status quo, concentrate on economic development, improve people's lives, eliminate internal contradictions, and patiently wait for major changes in the world situation. There has never been an empire without decline in human history, and the USA is no exception. If Israel loses the military assistance and support of the USA, it will not be invincible.
The Chinese believe in the inevitability and contingency of history. There are major problems in the internal system of the United States. Like all empires in history, it is historical inevitability for the United States to decline (of course, China will also decline one day), and it is historical inevitability for the world to move towards a multipolar era. It is a historical accident that wars occur in this process, such as the Iraq war and the Afghanistan war. Iran should follow the tide of the times, develop its economy, repair its diplomatic relations with its neighbors, not use force easily, wait patiently for the opportunity, restore the glory of Persian civilization and become a pole of the world.

 

[QWECXZ]

Although understandable, I think your expectations for a Western oriented Iran are overly optimistic.

Perhaps you think that the US would treat Iran like it did Japan, which was rehabilitated and allowed to become a great economic power. I think that is overly optimistic because of two reasons, the nature of those who devise US policy since then have changed. Before, the US was far more technocratic and logical, now it is ruled by ideological sociopaths who only know how to destroy and not to build nations.

Secondly, Israel is far more influential in US governance today than it was in decades prior.

If Iran were to fall, a united Iran would be considered too much of a threat to the long term dominance of Israel. Sure, perhaps the new government would be temporarily friendly to Israel but they know that if one day Iran was allowed to fully industrialize and become fully developed, it could switch again and become hostile to Israel. Then it would be 10x more dangerous than it is today because by then Iran would be a far richer and more powerful country than Israel.

Therefore what would likely happen is that Iran's government would likely be kept to a weak federation where the Kurds and Azeris and other minorities have significant autonomy and leeway. Sure, the living standards will go up but Iran will be more of a marketplace rather than a true national actor. And that would be the more optimistic scenario. The less optimistic one is that a defeated Iran is completely gutted and left to rot, which is what happened to the Soviet Union after its fall.

Well, there are so many Iranian-Americans in the United States that can actually lobby for us when the current regime is gone. They cannot lobby for us now because the regime is an Islamic one and it started its life with a major problem with the United States after the embassy crisis. Many of the Iranian-Americans in places like California are rich and influential. You also have to consider those people. Israel has a strong lobby in the United States, but when the current regime is gone and an Americanophile regime is installed, Iran will automatically gain a powerful lobby in the US that even today control hundreds of billions of dollars in the US economy.

I do not disagree that issues like federalism or even separatism can threaten us if the current regime falls and in fact, that's one of the reasons that Iranians haven't discarded the current regime yet. But it will not be violent like in Syria or Iraq. In fact, separation of Iranian Kurdistan once happened for a really short period of time (about 1 year) after the Soviet invasion of Iran during World War II and it ended rather peaceful with minimal involvement of armed forces.

We all agree that a new Middle East war is not in the interests of Iranians. But we need not be so pessimistic. The Chinese believe that war is always the last means to achieve the goal, and winning without war is the best way to win.
I think there is another possibility. Iran can strive to maintain peace and the status quo, concentrate on economic development, improve people's lives, eliminate internal contradictions, and patiently wait for major changes in the world situation. There has never been an empire without decline in human history, and the USA is no exception. If Israel loses the military assistance and support of the USA, it will not be invincible.
The Chinese believe in the inevitability and contingency of history. There are major problems in the internal system of the United States. Like all empires in history, it is historical inevitability for the United States to decline (of course, China will also decline one day), and it is historical inevitability for the world to move towards a multipolar era. It is a historical accident that wars occur in this process, such as the Iraq war and the Afghanistan war. Iran should follow the tide of the times, develop its economy, repair its diplomatic relations with its neighbors, not use force easily, wait patiently for the opportunity, restore the glory of Persian civilization and become a pole of the world.

Iran is already changing. Even the authorities are changing too. The change is slow, but it is happening. You cannot compare today's clerics with people in 1960s or 1970s. That's why a lot of Iranians are waiting patiently for the situation to change on its own. But I agree with you in general.