A point to make is both diplomats were suppose to fly back a day before for a tank exhibition. Implying Intel was accurate upto the previous day situation. Was the D day Intel not given or was it too late to abort such a mission? Was it still carried out to make it look that the power behind this assassination does not even fear USA?
The usual suspects
- CIA - bcz Zia was beyond their control and was not following their narrative, their plan and what they desire for their "interests". Chiefly diversion of arms to a faction led by Gulbudin Hekmatyar and plan for the N bomb for which Zia was trying to accelerate whatever help he could provide covertly and overtly.
- KGB - bcz Zia's policies were a direct confrontation to USSR but KGB won't bump him off in a plane having a American diplomat .. rather a lonely attempt would be their style
- Afghanistan intelligence folks , WAD who carried out covert bombings. They also have bought insiders. But they were under active support of USSR. So they were a suspect that this might have been done by them and USSR will claim they don't have a link nor they ever controlled them.
- RAW- famed agency but since Zia-Rajiv were already so close to a solution it defies logic for RAW to carry out an ops. On top collateral damage is too big in this mission. Of course RAW will never get political authorisation for such a mission even in denial mode later scenario also bcz of American diplomat onboard. If RAW- was involved bcz of Zia support to khalistan side folks whom he armed against India, RAW had a score to settle. But will RAW be so foolish to carry out the mission inspite of knowing that on D Day mission status changed owing to diplomats involvement? I doubt that as I said courage at political level for such outright missions is next to Zero if not negative.
- Pakistan army insider- a theory stated that Zia was cajoled to go to tank exhibition with the diplomats. The reason behind stated was the deep changes Zia was planning to bring to the army.
- USA beyond CIA. This was another angle thought that this was done by the government without keeping CIA in loop. In the strategic circles the next in line Benazir was identified as someone whom USA can more control easily. Of course this line got more fuel when FBI whom an unparalleled access was granted to investigate by Pakistan government but it's forensic experts were not considered by State department inspite of American diplomat on board. So no counter terrorism angle or sabotage angle was ever considered in front of the panels in USA or in Pakistan citing no evidence. This got further strengthened when within 3days first news report stated plane malfunction as first reason for the crash as per the conclusion of US AF investigators.
- Mossad- the prime reason the N bomb.There was no autopsy done on the body remains to check for poisoning as per investigative folks. Reason being none were from criminal investigation background and nor FBI folks expert in forensics field were involved. There were talks a crew comprising civilians as well were repairing Pak One door in the morning. So planting a poison gas bomb was not an issue. But no one could prove bcz bodies marked for autopsy were sent to burial as per customs before that could be done. According to media it was customs which does nt allow such autopsies.
- Again Pak military insider bcz post crash an attempt was seen to divert attention, files went missing about Murtaza Bhutto and transfer of personnel's happened in Bhagalpur. Also so called phone records of Zia before the takeoff were destroyed as per many theories. What added weightage was in a short few days Zia and Pak One crash was obliterated from every media and public discussion. It was as if everything is normal and nothing ever happened. This led conspiracy theorists to suspect State attempt to cover it up
Many angles.. many suspects..there are many folks who could benefit out of this.. I wish
@WAJsal had completed his history of Pakistan series.. it would have thrown some more light on this surely.
Personally it looks like a deal between US government without taking CIA into confidence and some elements from Pakistan Army. The insider touch is long suspected. The interests of USA needed Zia to move out of the power position and carrot it would have got is many including slowing down the N bomb which gives them a much bigger comfort cover.
This will remain an unsolved mystery for all time . The skeletons in closet won't be allowed to come out ever even by some mistake...