Lavrov: Reports on withdrawal of Russian military observers from Syria’s Afrin refuted
More:
http://tass.com/politics/985991
The situation is still very complicated. Right now, the Russian position remains unclear. Some people claim that after Turks started shelling and bombing the area east of Afrin, Russian soldiers quickly retreated to Afrin city, however, other sources state that in the meantime Russian and Iranian soldiers returned to their former positions in Afrin.
The Syrian gov't did refuse a cooperation with PYD but acc to the same pro-gov't media websites, he allowed YPG reinforcement groups to enter Afrin by using a rout through government-held region.
To sum it up, Syria is simply f'cked up. It seems that right now even Americans and Russians aren't sure about the next move. If the reports are true, we did attack a region where Russian soldiers are deployed - we did this on purpose, if true. On the other hand, Assad tries to play Turks and YPG against each other but risks hurting Russian interests. And he refuses cooperation with YPG which tells us that he is planing on fighting them in the end. It doesn't look like Russia is happy with this development either.On top of that, Russia is anticipating fierce resistance in Idlib from HTS ad FSA. On the same time DEASH is having a come back in Idlib.
I can see that the Turkish military and government did learn some lessons from Firat Kalkani Op. They, too, are spreading fake news like Russia. Additionally, it seems like FSA forces are better equipped and well trained this time. We can definitely see more drone activity.
But right now it is all up in the air.
I think that Russia would approve a Turkish op in Afrin if Turkey accepts the loss of Idlib. It was planned to give/leave us control over parts of Idlib in earlier agreements. However, I think that the Turkish government plays big this time. They want Afrin and parts of Idlib. No one wants a second Aleppo situation to happen in Ankara. Just think about the potential refugee influx. Plus, HTS and other Islamist groups would do anything to get Turkish support against Assad's army.
It is very possible that the situation will change slowly in our favor if we make remarkable gains against YPG in the next days.