mahatir
FULL MEMBER
- Joined
- Mar 31, 2013
- Messages
- 1,527
- Reaction score
- -2
Certain things make me disagree:
1) the relative silence of Ankara even when Aleppo is being bombed hard these past few weeks
2) Russia not at all interfering with Op Euphrates Shield (when a few months ago they set up S400 as a direct threat to our Airforce over Syria) (BONUS: one Russian lawmaker even said that Russia should nuke Istanbul)
3) The fact that regime aircraft still haven't attacked FSA units part of Euphrates Shield
4) Moscow and Ankara are talking an ever more parallel language with regards to some developments in Syria these days (obviously the Assad issue is not one they are parallel on)
5) Putin visits Erdogan: within 100 hours Dabiq is taken
6) The US influence in Northern Syria was neutralized by the Russians and the Turks on purpose: the two decided to cooperate in order to strengthen their respective positions at the Syria talks and enable them to pursue mutually beneficial stances.
- these are good developments, Washington doesn't give a shit about Turkey nor its people. Russia doesn't either but as they are in our region and not a superpower like the US (please don't rage at me fanboys) the relationship with Russia is more....balanced and flexible
I think the agreement is about neutralizing pro American SDF forces west of Euphrates in Riqqah , Hassaka and the 2 cantons in Aleppo in return for Turkish support for Russian backed political resolution .
What seems to be happening here Turkey and Russia are dividing Syria into zones of influence , apart from 5000 KM square Turkish security zone , it will extend in future into PYD held territories in Riqqah and perhaps Hassaka at some point .
Putin wants USA outside syria and he would rather see Turkey backed forces taking over Isil held territory than SDF forces . After all even Turkish backed forces are anti-american .
Not sure.
Anadolu Agency
16 oct. 2016
“Operation Euphrates Shield to continue towards northern Syria's al-Bab city: Turkish FM”
I think that Turkey has its own personal agenda and does not care about anyone (Including Russia of course).
...
Turkey plan after clearing 5000 KM2 will be to take over Riqqah and clear PYD from some areas east of Euphrates .
Turkey main aim is to destroy PYD and Rojava , it has nothing to do with taking Assad down . They would support an indirect insurgency to weaken assad but will not get involved directly in Aleppo city .
Really ? So Erdogan's Turkey sold the Syrian Arab Sunnis to Assad (Iran) - like in Iraq with Mosul -. We will see.
This is about national interests , Turkey atleast allowed Syrian refugees to settle inside Turkey and now they are creating a safe zone inside Syria to accommodate Syrian refugees who can then train in these zones and use it as launching point to attack Assad forces .
Right now USA under its current stupid leadership are supporting and arming groups like PYD that threaten the national territorial integrity of Turkey . Any rational Turkish leader would never enter a war against Assad and Russia directly when he has kurdish peasants setting up a country right next to his border .
Turkey focus next period will be on retaining its FOB bases in Iraq to monitor PKK activity and try to take over as much land as possible from PYD east of Euphrates river .
We might also see a Turkish Euphrate operation in Nineveh to keep PKK and Shia militias away from Mosul and other important towns that are used to connect Turkish FOB bases in northern iraq .
This is why its very important next period for Turkey to continue supporting Barzani in KRG and help create autonomous rule in Nineveh for Turkmen and Arabs which would really help enlarge and improve the efficiency of existing Turkish FOB bases that monitor and gather intelligence information on PKK movements and camps in Northern Iraq . This would help contain PKK within Turkish/Iraqi borders .
Certain things make me disagree:
1) the relative silence of Ankara even when Aleppo is being bombed hard these past few weeks
I agree with you on Aleppo but Manbij and Albab will be part of the planned Turkish 5000 KM zone . This is something that was confirmed by Turkish president and PM including military officials in Turkish army .