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Turkey’s S-400 vs F-35 dilemma in 2019

F-35 vs S-400; If Turkey had to choose one, which one should it choose?

  • F-35

  • S-400


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Is Turkey’s narrative on S-400s changing?
In Turkish politics, it is very rare to see President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and his main political rival, Republican People’s Party (CHP) chair Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, on the same page. But it happened, on April 18, as both men expressed their post-election assessments and expectations.
In a very soft language, Erdoğan suggested that all political debates discussed before the elections are now over, as it’s time to cool off, shake hands and reduce the tension, while calling on everybody to return to their daily lives. He singled out the economy and security/foreign matters as the top items of the real agenda of Turkey and proposed the formation of what he called “the Alliance of Turkey” in efforts to resolve key national issues.

Kılıçdaroğlu’s messages were similar. First, he made clear that he is not capitalizing on his party’s local election success to call snap elections. He also said it was time to address the key problems of Turkey and suggested his party’s assistance and support if the government asks for it.

It’s too early to make predictions on the potential outcomes of this change in the political language between Erdoğan and Kılıçdaroğlu. However, given the fact that many of Turkey’s immediate problems require a collective stance and mind, it should not be surprising to see a future rapprochement between the two men, which could include some other leaders as well.

All these signal the beginning of a new era in Turkey. However, there are a number of different factors that will determine the evolution of this era. Turkey’s ongoing disagreement with the U.S. on its plans to deploy Russian S-400anti-ballistic missile systems on its soil is the most potentially hazardous and impending one.

Yet, nuances have begun to be observed on Turkey’s narrative on this very issue. Let’s first underline that the last two weeks have observed very high-level talks and consultations between Turkish and American officials.

Foreign Minister Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu’s attendance at a NATO meeting in Washington where he met with his counterpart Mike Pompeo was followed by a high-profile team joining the American-Turkish Council (ATC) Conference in the U.S. capital. Finance and Treasury Minister Berat Albayrak’s meeting with U.S. President Donald Trump and Jared Kushner along with Defense Minister Hulusi Akar and presidential spokesperson İbrahim Kalın’s appointments with their interlocutors were of significant importance.

Albayrak expressed his impressions from his meetings at the White House as constructive and positive in regards to the S-400 problem.

Following all these meetings, an optimistic analysis would catch a slight change in the narrative of the Turkish officials when talking or answering questions on this very matter. For example, there hasn’t been statements like “this is a done deal” from Turkish officials in the last two weeks.

Kalın, at a press conference following a cabinet meeting on April 18, mentioned some formulae for the resolution to the problem while underlining that Turkeywould never like to harm any NATOmilitary equipment with the deployment of different weapons. He once again called on NATO to carry out a technical evaluation over potential dangers of the deployment of the S-400s at the same time with F-35 aircraft. A special highlight on the role of the NATO to this end has also been voiced by Çavuşoğlu on April 19.

It’s in this period that reports suggesting Turkey’s plans to deploying these systems to a third country are covered in some of the Turkish media outlets, although they have never been confirmed.

At the same time, we have been hearing less threatening public statements by American officials in the last two weeks. Without paying special emphasis on this, one would think that that would give more chances to backchannel diplomacy.

It’s still too early to come to a conclusion on how this problem will be solved, but recent hints suggest at least a change in the Turkish narrative on the matter.
 
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Russia ‘ready to cooperate’ to sell Turkey Su-57 fighter jets
MOSCOW
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Russia was “ready to cooperate” to sell Ankara Su-57 fighter jets if Turkey’s participation in the F-35 jet program with the U.S. fell through, the head of the Russian state-owned Rostec Corporation’s Sergey Chemezov said on May 2.

“These fifth-generation Russian fighter jets [Su-57] have outstanding qualities, and show promise for export,” he told Turkey’s state-run Anadolu Agency, adding that the jets were ready to be sold.

Asked about possible production in Turkey of the S-400 and Su-57, Chemezov said Russia would “gladly evaluate” any Turkish suggestions for localization or transfer of technologies.

Emphasizing Turkey’s progress since the early 2000s to replace imports in its defense industry, he said the country was highly competent in producing rifle armaments, armored vehicles and unmanned aerial vehicles.

“We are ready to support Turkey’s desire to develop its own defense industry,” added Chemezov.

Turkey first NATO member to sign for S-400s

Turkey is the first NATO country to sign a contract for the Russian S-400 missile defense system, said the head of the Russian company for export-oriented defense and civilian industries.

Despite unprecedented pressure regarding the S-400 deal, Turkeycontinues holding a very direct and consistent position regarding implementation of all the contract provisions, Chemezov said.

The fact that Turkey does not yield to pressure from its partners demonstrates the independence of its foreign policy as pursued by country’s government and president, he added.

“We signed the contract for the S-400s in 2017, and before the end of this year, we plan to conclude all deliveries,” Chemezov said, adding that the deal was significant for both Moscow and Ankara.

He also said Russia invited the prospect of cooperation with Turkey in the development of the next generation air defense system - the S-500 project.

“The S-500s are currently under development and will be a Russian state-of-the-art air defense system without equal throughout the world,” he said emphasizing that both countries had the capacity to contribute to such a project.

Russian-Turkish civilian cooperation

Chemezov also added that Rostec wanted to establish “durable and long-term” cooperation with Turkey in defense as well as in civilian technologies such as helicopter manufacturing.

He noted that Turkish aerospace corporation TUSAS/TAI produces various helicopter components which Russian firms could use and certify for use in Russian-made aircraft.

Russia is prepared to supply Turkeydifferent types of helicopters, he said.

“In 2018, we signed a contract to supply Turkey with three Ka-32 helicopters to fight fires. Rostec intends to further develop cooperation in the field of fire aviation with Turkey,” he said, estimating that the Turkish market of aerial fire-fighting craft comprised of 50-70 such helicopters.

He identified energy domain as area of promise for cooperation between Rostec and Turkey.

He said the Russian United Engine Corporation (UEC) - a Rostec subsidiary - was working on the implementation of joint programs for the development of a strategic partnership with Turkish pipeline operator Botaş.

He cited two contracts with Turkey to supply and overhaul gas turbine engines in 2013 and 2014.

“In addition, we expect the signing of a third contract for routine maintenance of an energy facility in Sivas [central Turkey],” Chemezov said.

Chemezov applauded Turkey’s efforts to develop its own space program as one more potential area of broad cooperation between the two countries.

He noted that the Turkish Turksat-4A satellite had been launched by Russian company Rosoboronexport, under Rostec and said the company had ample opportunities that could be useful for Turkey.
 
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According to Ukranian news : Turkish Defense Minister stated that USA offered Turkey new Patriot deal with technology transfer and joint production project.

https://korrespondent.net/world/4092580-ssha-uluchshyly-predlozhenye-dlia-turtsyy-po-zrk-Patriot

The new proposal of Washington contains those positions on which Ankara insisted initially.

The US authorities have made Turkey a "more positive" proposal for the possible purchase of Patriot anti-aircraft missile systems than those previously represented by Washington. This was said by Turkish Defense Minister Hulusi Akar, RIA Novosti reported on Friday, May 3.

"The proposal for the Patriot from the US, which we received in March, is more positive for us and contains the positions we talked about initially. We are going to not only buy, but also produce our own air defense systems," said the minister on NTV.
 
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According to Ukranian news : Turkish Defense Minister stated that USA offered Turkey new Patriot deal with technology transfer and joint production project.

https://korrespondent.net/world/4092580-ssha-uluchshyly-predlozhenye-dlia-turtsyy-po-zrk-Patriot

The new proposal of Washington contains those positions on which Ankara insisted initially.

The US authorities have made Turkey a "more positive" proposal for the possible purchase of Patriot anti-aircraft missile systems than those previously represented by Washington. This was said by Turkish Defense Minister Hulusi Akar, RIA Novosti reported on Friday, May 3.

"The proposal for the Patriot from the US, which we received in March, is more positive for us and contains the positions we talked about initially. We are going to not only buy, but also produce our own air defense systems," said the minister on NTV.


It is to late if they want us to cancel S-400 deal.
 
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Lawmakers offer bill to block F-35 for Turkey
Joe Gould
WASHINGTON — Key House lawmakers announced their bill Friday to bar the sale of the F-35 warplane to Turkey if Ankara buys the Russian S-400 surface-to-air missile system.

The bipartisan trio of senior House Armed Services Committee members — Reps. Mike Turner, R-Ohio; John Garamendi, D-Calif., and Paul Cook, R-Calif., sponsored the bill, a companion to a bipartisan bill from Sen. James Lankford, R-Kan., and others. Both bills are called the “Protecting NATO Skies Act of 2019.”

“Operating the S-400 alongside the F-35 would compromise the aircraft and its sensitive technology, impact interoperability among NATO allies, and most importantly pose serious risk to our shared defense and security," Garamendi said in a statement. "This bill sends a strong and important message to Turkey — proceeding with the S-400 is unacceptable and will not be tolerated.”

The House bill came days after Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan reportedly discussed with U.S. President Donald Trump a Turkish proposal to establish a joint committee over Turkey’s plans to purchase the S-400.

A statement from Erdogan’s office says the two leaders held a telephone conversation on Monday during which they also discussed the fight against terrorism and efforts to increase trade.

Turkey’s decision to purchase the advanced Russian system has deepened a rift between the NATO allies.

The U.S. has long been in talks for Turkey to buy the U.S.-made Patriot air defense system as an alternative to the S-400. In March, Acting Defense Secretary Patrick Shanahan told Turner “we need Turkey to buy the Patriot.”

After months of warnings, the U.S., in April, stopped delivery of F-35 parts to Turkey in retaliation for Ankara’s decision to move ahead with the S-400. The aircraft's delivery was planned for this summer, but the move was the first step toward actually ending the sale.

U.S. officials say the Russian defense system could pose a threat to the F-35 program and have warned of consequences if the purchase is finalized.

Turkey denies that the system is a threat and has proposed a joint committee to review security risks.

Turkey is set to buy 100 F-35As over the entirety of the F-35 program and Turkish companies are also part of the program’s industrial base and play a role in sustainment.

However, after months of warnings, Washington stopped delivery of F-35 fighter jet parts to Turkey last month in retaliation for Ankara’s decision to move ahead with the purchase of a Russian surface-to-air missile system.

Last month, Senate Armed Services Committee Chairman Jim Inhofe, R-Okla., and ranking member Jack Reed, D-R.I., penned a New York Times op-ed with Senate Foreign Relations Committee Chairman Jim Risch, R-Idaho, and ranking member Bob Menendez, D-N.J., threatening legislation that would bar Turkey from both the F-35 and S-400.
 
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Some say that the systems will be sent to Malaysia.
 
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Finely someone wrote a levelheaded peace on the issues surounding this looming crisis

The S-400 Issue in U.S.-Turkey Relations is Leading to Disaster, But It Can be Stopped


The most straightforward way of resolving the dispute is to prevent Turkey’s procurement of the S-400 system altogether. But this can only be achieved through understanding and compromise, not threats.

he United States of America and Turkey, the largest and the second largest militaries in NATO, are experiencing one of the lowest points in bilateral relations in history. The only other time that it was this low was during the Turkish invasion of Cyprus, which is when the United States applied a total embargo on arms sales and support to the Turks in 1974. The difference between then and now is that back then there was only one point of contention and it was clearly understood by both sides; the military invasion of Cyprus. That is good because such a problem, no matter how big, is eventually solvable. As long as the strategic interests of two nations are aligned and the problems clearly understood, there will always be hope and effort on both sides to resolve bilateral issues and reconciliate.

The issue today is much deeper, grave and multifaceted. The two countries see less and less reasons to stay together and their independent foreign-policy choices are increasingly leaving them at the opposite sides of conflicts around the world as well as in Turkey itself. The points of divergence include difference of opinion on the religious group led by Fethullah Gulen blamed by Turkey for the coup attempt against its government in 2016, definition of terrorism and designation of YPG as a terrorist organization, the wars in Syria and Iraq, and most recently, Turkey’s decision to purchase a Russian long-range air- and missile-defense system known as the S-400 Triumph. Lawmakers in Capitol Hill have repeatedly warned Turkish officials both publicly and in private that the procurement of the S-400 will have a lasting and serious adverse impact on bilateral relations. The procurement is bound to trigger the Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA) of 2017, at which time a number of Turkish governmental institutions and defense companies will be barred from working with their American counterparts. But more specifically, Washington has made it clear that the procurement will endanger Turkey’s position in the F-35 program. As each day passes by, it becomes clearer that neither side is stepping down from their positions.

The problem has the capacity to go further south, however. Modern day military equipment are highly networked systems. In the air, for instance, fighter jets, unmanned aerial vehicles, ground- and air-based radars, air-defense systems and others must work in concert for any of them to be effective. This kind of minute cooperation requires that the systems all speak the same language. Introduction of the S-400 to the Turkish arsenal requires that NATO Identification Friend and Foe (IFF) system be installed on them, something that is seriously opposed by NATO. As a result of threats by the United States on excluding Turkey from the F-35 program, the Turkish government and military officials have started to entertain the thoughts of purchasing Russian fighters to fill the gap left by the F-35s that they were planning to acquire. Russia’s Rostec has already started offering the Russian Su-57 fighter jets to Turkey. In the event that Turkey acquires both the S-400 and Russian fighter jets, then it will have to make a major decision: whether to maintain common military architecture with NATO but leave a major chunk of its military aerial hardware unused, or to break away from NATO architecture altogether. The latter option would spell a disaster for NATO, the western military hegemony in the middle east, and Europe.

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There is no sign of backing down in the tone of the messages sent by Washington and Ankara to each other on the issue of the procurement of the S-400. Ankara has made it clear that its decision to purchase the S-400 is one of national interest and one which is final. Washington, on its part, has indicated publicly that the F-35 multirole fighter jets will not be delivered to Turkey in the event that Turkey opts for the S-400 air defense system. At this point the issue is so highly publicized that the two sides can’t go back even if they wanted to, because that would mean a serious loss of face. As such, the current tide of events is clearly leading up to Turkey’s acquisition of the S-400 and its consequent exclusion from the F-35 program. At which point, Turkey would be left with no choice but to look for alternatives such as the Russian fighters ultimately leading up to Turkey’s breakaway from NATO and an unprecedented crisis for the alliance. This chain of causality, however, can be stopped. But it requires serious effort and compromise on both parties.

The most straightforward way of resolving the dispute is to prevent Turkey’s procurement of the S-400 system altogether. But this can only be achieved through understanding and compromise, not threats, which is the current strategy of the United States. The United States should immediately stop threatening Turkey with the consequences of its procurement decision. Instead, the United States should start asking Turkey what it would take for Turkey to cancel its decision and start negotiating and bargaining down from there. In the past seventeen years Turkey has set the establishment of an advanced and self-sufficient defense industry as one of its most high-priority target. This requires large amounts of Transfer of Technology (ToT), which Turkey is not getting from the S-400 deal. The United States could offer its Patriot air defense system with significant ToT in exchange for Turkey canceling its S-400 deal with Russia. This could be marketed as a win for the public of both countries; the U.S. government will have forced Turkey to cancel its S-400 deal and the Turkish government will have forced the United States to offer more ToT.


Of course, even Russia’s delivery of the air-defense system to Turkey wouldn’t be the end of the world. There is no need to portray the event worse than it already is. Instead of escalating their usual war of words, the two sides should look for solutions that would satisfy both sides. Since the argument of the United States and NATO is that the S-400 would compromise the F-35 fighter jets, then their concerns can easily be addressed if Turkey never actively used the system. One way of achieving this is to reserve the S-400 system for tests and analysis of the system and military airplanes. This has the added benefit of allowing for NATO to gain insight into one of the most formidable Russian military hardware. The air-defense batteries could also be shipped overseas to other prospective operators. Qatar, for instance, which is a close Turkish ally, has been eyeing the systems for the past few years and would gladly accept the purchase in Turkey’s lieu.

It would be very easy to let the tumultuous U.S.-Turkish bilateral relations slide past the point of no return. But the relations did not survive more than seventy years by taking the easy road. The Middle East is more in chaos than ever, Russia’s growing influence in the Balkans knows no bounds, and China is making serious effort towards military hegemony in Eurasia. This necessitates unprecedented levels of western liberal unity and Turkey is a critical part of it. But keeping it that way requires clear identification of the greater mutual threats faced by Turkey and the rest of NATO, and decisive joint action to overcome them.


https://nationalinterest.org/featur...ions-leading-disaster-it-can-be-stopped-56742
 
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For a moment i remembered Pastor Brunson and Deniz Yucel. Too early to talk for sure.
 
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This is a copy-paste but i found it funny :D


Turkey: Hey ally can we buy some patriots? (for years)

US: What? No! Why do you need them anyway? It's not like you're in a super volitile region surrounded by hostile forces! r/s

Turkey: BRO we really need those, there is a Civil War going on at our neighbors, Iran hates us, Syria shot down one of our planes and we shot down a Russian plane!

US: Don't worry about it, we'll have Germany station a patriot system in your country for protection

Germany: Wze are pulling outz of Turkey!

Turkey: But now is when we need patriots more than ever. We never built our own long range AA/anti missile systems because you guys promised we could just use yours?. Syria or Iran or any other hostile country could easily rain ballistic missiles on us!

Germany: .....

US/NATO: ..........

Turkey: SOOO.. Yo Russia what up bro, do you remember about how we were doing all those lucrative trades and shiiittt.. Maybe we should patch shit up?

Russia:.... OK (I really want those gas pipe lines etc)

Turkey : Jo who is selling anti air / anti missile systems

Russia / China : WE ARE!!

Turkey : so let me get this straight, Russian system is cheaper, guaranteed delivery, tech transfer (allowing Turkey to fast track the development of its own systems) allright I'll get Russian s400. Makes deal, pays part of it upfront. Improves relations with Russia

US defense industry: HEY WAIT A MINUTE BRUH..

US: THIS IS UNfuckingACCEPTABLE, I thought we were allies bro! You serious right now?

Turkey: BUT we basically begged you for them for years?

US: If you guys those we will not deliver the F35`s that you helped develop, paid in advance and also paid part of the development cost for.

Turkey: That's.. That's not how it works bro

US: YES IT DOES, YOU ARE NO LONGER GETTING THE F35 IF YOU GET THOSE S400. I don't care if you helped develop them, produce them and already paid for them.. BCUZ.. BCUZ.. Then the Russians will know all our secrets! (unsubstantiated lie)

Turkey: no they won't, besides israel that hasn't helped develop them got them before anyone else and has been using them on Syria flying over s400 already??

US: YOU'RE NOT GETTING THEM..

Turkey: were not canceling the s400 deal

US: OK, you know what. We'll sell you the patriots. For a far higher price, with no tech transfer, and will control the systems but you have to pay a 4 billion down-payment. And we aren't giving you Any guarantee that we will deliver.. Ever. Shit we might even change our mind later (no joke.. This is what the US is offering Turkey)

Russia: (LOL, iz diz comrade serious rite now.)

Turkey: are you even serious right now? Not even a guarantee we'll get the systems and you want a down payment thats more than the Russian systems cost us? Why would we trust you when you even threaten to block a delivery of the F35 that we already paid for and helped create and help produce!? .. No I'll skip. Besides the Russians are about to deliver the systems and we already paid.

US: GOOOOHDDDDEHHH, GUYS TURKEY IS BEING SO UNREASONABLE what a terrible ally

Turkey: You've been arming, supporting and propagating abti Turkish terrorists on our border for fucking years now.

US: They are a different group because we decided they are and even gave them a new name. WHAT'S THE BIG DEAL?

Turkey:.. Name change didn't stop them from shooting missiles and mortars over the borders on our civilians / towns. Sending suicide bombers etc. etc.

US:...

US defence industry: BRO YOU GOT TO STOP THESE TURKS. we depend on selling them inferior expert systems for sky high prices and then screwing them over with insanely high maintenance costs etc etc. Now we're not just losing Turkish business but when they make their own we'll have another compwtitor on the market!! Remember how the Turks practically begged us for surveillance and armed drones but we refused and kept them on a string for years so they just decided to make their own long range armed drones etc?!
 
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