Turkey’s Air Force Is Obsolete, Warns New Study
Michael Peck
May 4, 2021,08:00am EDT
Turkey’s air force is becoming obsolete, according to a new Turkish study.
“Turkey and the Turkish Air Force’s air warfare capabilities face a serious test over the next 10 to 20 years,” writes Can Kasapoglu, director of the security and defense program at Turkish think tank EDAM, who authored the report.
Kasapoglu describes the weakness of Turkish airpower as a “techno-generation problem.” The Turkish Air Force’s fourth-generation F-16s and third-generation F-4s – which are essentially Cold War aircraft – are reaching the end of their lifespans. Turkish plans to replace them with 100 fifth-generation F-35A stealth fighters have collapsed after Turkey was kicked out of the F-35 program amid U.S. anger over Turkey’s purchase of Russian S-400 anti-aircraft missiles. Meanwhile, Turkey’s rivals – including Greece and Israel – are receiving F-35s, or generation 4.5 fighters like France’s Rafale.
“If an intermediate solution is not found, Turkish air power will fall behind world trends,” Kasapoglu warns.
The report suggests that giving up the F-35 in favor of S-400 missiles was a bad bargain. “Turkey’s defense planning and national security requirements, are not suitable for a SAM-intensive force structure. The S-400 strategic SAM system, which has just entered the inventory of the Turkish Armed Forces, will not perform at the desired level due to the shortcomings in the network-centered architecture.”
Nor are armed drones a substitute for the F-35. Turkey has garnered a reputation as a drone power after Turkey-made TB2 and Israeli-made Harop drones decimated Armenian troops and armored vehicles during the 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh War. But EDAM rejects the idea that drones can substitute for advanced manned aircraft. “Although there is a potential for change within the scope of artificial intelligence and algorithmic warfare, air warfare parameters are still shaped around manned platforms.”
That leaves
the TF-X project to develop a homegrown fifth-generation stealth fighter by 2029. But problems finding a suitable engine from overseas manufacturers “may extend the time needed to enter the inventory,” noted EDAM.
It’s not just Turkey’s air force that will feel the loss of the F-35. The loss jeopardizes the Turkish Navy’s plans for an amphibious assault ship – essentially a light aircraft carrier — equipped with short-takeoff and vertical landing F-35Bs, according to EDAM.
The study also warns of Turkish weakness in air and missiles defense. Turkish forces in northern Syria have been bombed by Syrian and Russian aircraft, while United Arab Emirates jets reportedly struck a Turkish airbase in Libya in 2020 after Turkish forces intervened in the Libyan civil war. “The air defense of the Turkish Armed Forces’ forward-deployed combat elements and cross-border bases is becoming an increasingly serious requirement in the lessons learned from the Libyan and Syrian experience,” says EDAM.
Turkey is also surrounded by nations with ballistic missiles, including Syria, Armenia, Iran and Russia. Even here, losing the F-35 is a problem: the stealth jet and its advanced sensors could play a vital role in missile defense, both as an interceptor and by conducting strikes against missile launchers, the study says.
The report makes clear that Turkey has only one real solution to maintain its airpower. “Turkey should return to its priority as the F-35 program. The mentioned policy advice is of great importance both for the combat capabilities of the Turkish Air Force and for the technological and economic gains and employment capacity of the Turkish defense industry.”
America won't sell F-35 stealth fighters to Turkey. Can Turkey find a replacement?
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