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Turkey: tired of high-pitched foreign policy

Serpentine

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Turkey’s fall in the foreign policy arena that started with the Arab Spring is gradually increasing. Today, there is no trace of Turkey which had on the one hand developed new targets with the European Union, Israel and Iran and on the other produced long-term projects with Syria, Russia and the US.
As is the case with domestic policy, the government is exhibiting signs of exhaustion in its foreign policy.

The developments in Syria have certainly played a major role in the country’s current state of foreign policy. Turkey, and in particular Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, continually makes strongly worded statements about the Syrian crisis, hurling threats at the Bashar al-Assad regime.

However, we are currently left alone with regard to the Syrian crisis. While Western countries lend low-profile support to Turkey in the Syrian crisis, Turkey is well aware that this support is a typical Western policy and it will be left completely alone if Western countries deem it necessary.

Four Arab countries which overthrew their dictators through revolution -- namely Egypt, Libya, Tunisia and Yemen -- do not see Turkey as a good example for themselves and do not place Turkey in the category of countries which they attach primary importance to, despite all efforts and diplomatic moves from the Turkish side.

In particularly, it seems very unlikely for Egypt, where the Muslim Brotherhood sits in the presidential palace, to establish closer ties with Turkey despite the Erdoğan administration’s intensive efforts. So establishing a cooperative relationship with Egypt in the Middle East that would be similar to the one between Germany and France in Europe is wishful thinking in the short term. Egypt’s new priority has clearly been revealed with new President Mohamed Mursi’s visit to Saudi Arabia.

Not only has Turkish foreign policy failed to adapt to changing conditions but its civilian diplomacy bodies -- represented by the Office of Public Diplomacy, the Turkish Cooperation and Development Agency (TİKA) and the Yunus Emre Culture Centers -- have also been ineffectual.

We still don’t know what benefits these institutions are bringing to Turkey in return for consuming hundreds of millions of dollars of public resources.

In addition, the government’s project to boost the Arabic sections of the Anatolian news agency and the Turkish Radio and Television Corporation (TRT) seems unlikely to boost Turkey’s image. Given the fact that the TRT’s Arabic channel, TRT Turkiyya, has been unable to achieve the expected ratings, it is feared that the Anatolia news agency’s project may face a similar fate as well.

The winds which Turkey’s Israel policy had created seem to have subsided. Neither Israel nor Palestinian groups make mention of Turkey anymore. In particular, today we see closely how Turkey’s efforts concerning the Palestinian issue have been unproductive.

As for Turkey’s policy on Iraq, it is an enigma. Today we don’t know what advantages Turkey received by offering refuge to the former vice president of Iraq, Tariq al-Hashimi. And the Arab world does not appreciate in the least Turkey’s hosting of Hashimi. On the contrary, the anti-Turkey campaign led by Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki, who is depicted as the second Saddam Hussein of Iraq, is getting stronger. It is known that Iraqi Shiites no longer feel close to Turkey.

Due to Turkey’s Syria policy, Turkish-Iranian relations are experiencing their tensest era yet in recent years. The two countries are in implicit competition, trying to weaken each other.

Alarm bells are also ringing over Turkey’s relations with many international organizations and global powers, including the EU, the African Union, Russia and the US.

For some, the main reason for these problems is that Turkey has abandoned its soft power strategy and replaced it with a smart power strategy.

Whatever the reason, Turkey needs a new dynamism and enthusiasm in foreign policy. The zero problems strategy, once successfully pursued by Turkey, has been completely shelved. Turkey has returned to the foreign policy it had been pursuing before the Justice and Development Party (AK Party) came to power. Today there is virtually no neighboring country with which Turkey has no problems.

Turkey: tired of high-pitched foreign policy
 
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EU is already disintegrating. EU shows no promising future for Turkey.

Turkey has shown interest in Middleast for the first time since its founding in 1923. While for the first decade of 21st century, Turkey has meddled in ME politics peacefully, after 2010 Turkey changed its policy approach from intermediatery diplomacy to ambitious militaristic expansion.

AKP already transformed the core of the military from secular to religious. Now there are no different voices coming from the top. While USA still has power to transform Middleast, Turkey cooperate with his NATO allies to prepare for a post-USA Middleast in order survive in non-hostile, non-challenging environment.

I dont think current government is ineffective or pawn. In case of USA leaving ME, Turkey doesnt want to be surrounded by Russia and its allies Iran, Syria. That gives logical explanation for the actions of Turkey.
 
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Foreign policy should have few pillars.

1. What's good for a secular Turkey
2. What's good for humanity where Turkey can contribute

If Turkey runs with these ideas, it will be successful.

However the Islamist bend of the current regime in Turkey robs it from operating at its fullest potential.

Turkey should learn from the awful outcomes for the countries who let religious elements run their foreign policy. Case in point, iranians who allowed Ayatullahs to go whole hog with Iran's foreign policy, or Afghanis who let Mullah Omer to go mad with Wahabi Islamism based foreign policy. Pakistan suffered under Bhattoo and Zia's Islamist led foreign policy, and the list goes on.

peace.
 
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Foreign policy should have few pillars.

1. What's good for a secular Turkey
2. What's good for humanity where Turkey can contribute

If Turkey runs with these ideas, it will be successful.

However the Islamist bend of the current regime in Turkey robs it from operating at its fullest potential.

Turkey should learn from the awful outcomes for the countries who let religious elements run their foreign policy. Case in point, iranians who allowed Ayatullahs to go whole hog with Iran's foreign policy, or Afghanis who let Mullah Omer to go mad with Wahabi Islamism based foreign policy. Pakistan suffered under Bhattoo and Zia's Islamist led foreign policy, and the list goes on.

peace.

World is changing, secular elements in Turkish society have no idea about whats going on in international area. We are currently through one of biggest change in world history. The game is being played in Middleast. To be strong in the region, Turkey should start thinking beyond its national boundaries. Some call it Neo-Ottomanism. While I think it may have some drawbacks, we should not let Russia, and Shia bloc domiante ME in a post-USA middleast.

USA has a maximum lifespan in Middleast, after that it will leave. USA already caused massive change in power blocs. Turkey was forced to play active role in re-shaping Middleast. Therefore it became a must to re-enter ME as Neo-Ottoman.
 
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World is changing, secular elements in Turkish society have no idea about whats going on in international area. We are currently through one of biggest change in world history. The game is being played in Middleast. To be strong in the region, Turkey should start thinking beyond its national boundaries. Some call it Neo-Ottomanism. While I think it may have some drawbacks, we should not let Russia, and Shia bloc domiante ME in a post-USA middleast.

USA has a maximum lifespan in Middleast, after that it will leave. USA already caused massive change in power blocs. Turkey was forced to play active role in re-shaping Middleast. Therefore it became a must to re-enter ME as Neo-Ottoman.

Turkey stayed away from ME for entire 20th century because Turkey wasn't wanted there but with Marmara Flotilla and 2009 Davos incidents Arab's opinion of Turkey got better. Before that Egypt (Nasser) and its block was hostile against Turkey as they were both Soviet Allies and they had historical grievances with Turks from Ottoman era. Although after 73 war Egyptian elite became an American Ally their attitude towards Turkey never changed.

Turkey's re-entry in ME politics were only possible after GCC's need of an ally against Iran-Syria block but Syria's refusal to let a pipeline and railway project to pass trough its territory was a setback but again with Arab Spring, that slowed re-entry gained speed maybe too much as we are seeing from huge backlash of our foreign policy.

Turkish absence in ME wasn't Turkish policy, it was the consequenses of Arab countries' foreign policy.
 
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Turkey stayed away from ME for entire 20th century because Turkey wasn't wanted there but with Marmara Flotilla and 2009 Davos incidents Arab's opinion of Turkey got better. Before that Egypt (Nasser) and its block was hostile against Turkey as they were both Soviet Allies and they had historical grievances with Turks from Ottoman era. Although after 73 war Egyptian elite became an American Ally their attitude towards Turkey never changed.

Turkey's re-entry in ME politics were only possible after GCC's need of an ally against Iran-Syria block but Syria's refusal to let a pipeline and railway project to pass trough its territory was a setback but again with Arab Spring, that slowed re-entry gained speed maybe too much as we are seeing from huge backlash of our foreign policy.

Turkish absence in ME wasn't Turkish policy, it was the consequenses of Arab countries' foreign policy.

Some points explained. Thank you for contribution.

My opinion changed recently. Turkish government is far smarter than you imagine. Assad gonna go. There is no alternative. Turkey should have or create its own agenda about Syria. At least Turkey should protect the interests of 3 million Syrian Turkmens.
 
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..... Turkey should start thinking beyond its national boundaries. Some call it Neo-Ottomanism. While I think it may have some drawbacks, we should not let Russia, and Shia bloc domiante ME in a post-USA middleast. .....

I am glad you are talking about neo-Ottomanism. This gives a good comprehensive image.

But we gotta be careful in this reference. While Ottomans were super power of the day, they succumbed to and got destroyed by the over-reliance on Islamism.

If the same Islamism is brought back to shore up the ottamanism, then guess what, the same shameful defeats will come to Turkey. It is that simple.

Kemal Ataturk was no $stupid. He had seen the ravages brought to his homeland by the Islamist orthodoxy.


The second issue with Ottamanism is that it will face off Arabism just like the days during Ottoman era. In fact Arabism is already in place to thwart any efforts by Turks to bring about Ottamanism back in the Arab lands. Egyptians and Gulf countries will always pay lip service to the neo-Islamism by Turks, but they will always looking for the neo-Lawrence of Arabia and perhaps they already have some.

Think about all the military bases in the gulf, and think Lawrence of Arabia(s).


peace.
 
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Turkey stayed away from ME for entire 20th century because Turkey wasn't wanted there but with Marmara Flotilla and 2009 Davos incidents Arab's opinion of Turkey got better. Before that Egypt (Nasser) and its block was hostile against Turkey as they were both Soviet Allies and they had historical grievances with Turks from Ottoman era. Although after 73 war Egyptian elite became an American Ally their attitude towards Turkey never changed.

Turkey's re-entry in ME politics were only possible after GCC's need of an ally against Iran-Syria block but Syria's refusal to let a pipeline and railway project to pass trough its territory was a setback but again with Arab Spring, that slowed re-entry gained speed maybe too much as we are seeing from huge backlash of our foreign policy.

Turkish absence in ME wasn't Turkish policy, it was the consequenses of Arab countries' foreign policy.




Turkey is increasingly assuming a leadership role in the Muslim World. This was a Foreign Policy decision Turkey made long before the Arab Spring. This change in foreign policy came about as a result of AKP winning election. This is Turkey's natural destiny and role. For more than past 40 years Turkey was looking West and trying to get in European Union , but God had a different plan to save Turkey. Look at the smaller countries that joined EU like Greece, Ireland, Spain and Portugal etc. as they are going bankrupt.

Iran and Pakistan should join Turkey in this push to develop the Islamic countries economies and resources. Turkey, iran and Paksitan should have a defence pact and a common market. Let us not waste our energies nad strength against each other but develop ourselves as a combined force to block the hegemonistic West.

Pakistan will always support Turkey and if Iran is attacked both Pakistan and Turkey should support Iran. We are brothers and a family and family protects its own.
 
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I am glad you are talking about neo-Ottomanism. This gives a good comprehensive image.

But we gotta be careful in this reference. While Ottomans were super power of the day, they succumbed to and got destroyed by the over-reliance on Islamism.

If the same Islamism is brought back to shore up the ottamanism, then guess what, the same shameful defeats will come to Turkey. It is that simple.

Kemal Ataturk was no $stupid. He had seen the ravages brought to his homeland by the Islamist orthodoxy.


The second issue with Ottamanism is that it will face off Arabism just like the days during Ottoman era. In fact Arabism is already in place to thwart any efforts by Turks to bring about Ottamanism back in the Arab lands. Egyptians and Gulf countries will always pay lip service to the neo-Islamism by Turks, but they will always looking for the neo-Lawrence of Arabia and perhaps they already have some.

Think about all the military bases in the gulf, and think Lawrence of Arabia(s).


peace.

1) I dont think our government is influenced by extreme Islamism. Our Islamism is more pragmatic than fundamentalist.

2) When USA invaded Iraq, it destroyed the status quo. Now Iraq came closer to Shia bloc. And Shia bloc covers the area of Lebanon, Syria, Iraq and Iran. Major Sunni countries collapsed by Arap Spring, such as Egypt, Libya etc... Sudan was divided.

3) Intentionally or unintentionally USA forced Turkey to counter Shia bloc rising. It is crucial to create a balance between two blocs. With Syria nad Iran showing hostility towards Turkish kinsmen whether Syrian Turkmens, Iraqi Turkmens or Azeris, Turkey should have no intention to play softer.

4) Israel struggles. With USA gone, Israel has no chance in ME. Hell they have no chance even in Palestine with their demographic structure collapsing. With Arab spring USA guaranteed ISrael that weakened Arab States should not pose threat to Israel.

5) It is win or lose scenario. Turkey has lot to lose if not acts in time. I dont like a Russian bear growls at my doorstep in near future. Blast them before they do, feel no remorse, thats why I meant.
 
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1) I dont think our government is influenced by extreme Islamism. Our Islamism is more pragmatic than fundamentalist.

2) When USA invaded Iraq, it destroyed the status quo. Now Iraq came closer to Shia bloc. And Shia bloc covers the area of Lebanon, Syria, Iraq and Iran. Major Sunni countries collapsed by Arap Spring, such as Egypt, Libya etc... Sudan was divided.

3) Intentionally or unintentionally USA forced Turkey to counter Shia bloc rising. It is crucial to create a balance between two blocs. With Syria nad Iran showing hostility towards Turkish kinsmen whether Syrian Turkmens, Iraqi Turkmens or Azeris, Turkey should have no intention to play softer.

4) Israel struggles. With USA gone, Israel has no chance in ME. Hell they have no chance even in Palestine with their demographic structure collapsing. With Arab spring USA guaranteed ISrael that weakened Arab States should not pose threat to Israel.

5) It is win or lose scenario. Turkey has lot to lose if not acts in time. I dont like a Russian bear growls at my doorstep in near future. Blast them before they do, feel no remorse, thats why I meant.
Your problem is here,you are seeing everything through Shia/Sunni glasses and sectarian issues.But the only thing that caused the ME to still see all the violence is this.Turkey will make a huge mistake if it wants to choose sides between Shia/Sunni or make Iran it's permanent enemy or Arabs its permanent allies..Iran and Turkey have far more influence on each other than Arabs have o Turkey.Look at Turkish neighbors,Turkey has not good relations with non of its neighbors.I think there is something going on in your foreign policy.
 
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Your problem is here,you are seeing everything through Shia/Sunni glasses and sectarian issues.But the only thing that caused the ME to still see all the violence is this.Turkey will make a huge mistake if it wants to choose sides between Shia/Sunni or make Iran it's permanent enemy or Arabs its permanent allies..Iran and Turkey have far more influence on each other than Arabs have o Turkey.Look at Turkish neighbors,Turkey has not good relations with non of its neighbors.I think there is something going on in your foreign policy.

I have least concern about Sunnism or Shiaism. Something gonna change. And if something gonna change, you are either in or out. In case of USA gone, Sunni bloc severely weakened and Israel defeated.... Russia, Iran and Syria wont give "Turkish people living in Middleast" a breeding room.

USA will leave ME, Israel will lose its regional power status and Sunni Arab countries are weak. I a post-USA Middleast, Turkey should create a suitable environment for itself. Turkey should force Russia and Iran out of Caucasus. Turkey should secure its kinsmen' safety in other ME countries. Nobody gives a damn about Turks. Turkey should do something.
 
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I have least concern about Sunnism or Shiaism. Something gonna change. And if something gonna change, you are either in or out. In case of USA gone, Sunni bloc severely weakened and Israel defeated.... Russia, Iran and Syria wont give "Turkish people living in Middleast" a breeding room.

USA will leave ME, Israel will lose its regional power status and Sunni Arab countries are weak. I a post-USA Middleast, Turkey should create a suitable environment for itself. Turkey should force Russia and Iran out of Caucasus. Turkey should secure its kinsmen' safety in other ME countries. Nobody gives a damn about Turks. Turkey should do something.
Why should Turkey do that?Iran is not Turkey's enemy.We had really good relations until Turkey's stance on Syria.Turkey could stay neutral in the Syria issue,secure its border with Syria and stop sending militants in there.That would serve Turk's interests at best.Even Turkish nationalist are starting complaining about AKP stance toward Syria.
Your words show you have greatest concern about Sunnism and Shiism, because you only see Iran as your rival and enemy.Anyway,Turkey can not push Russia or Iran out of Caucasus, because they are a part of Caucasus.
 
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I have least concern about Sunnism or Shiaism. Something gonna change. And if something gonna change, you are either in or out. In case of USA gone, Sunni bloc severely weakened and Israel defeated.... Russia, Iran and Syria wont give "Turkish people living in Middleast" a breeding room.

USA will leave ME, Israel will lose its regional power status and Sunni Arab countries are weak. I a post-USA Middleast, Turkey should create a suitable environment for itself. Turkey should force Russia and Iran out of Caucasus. Turkey should secure its kinsmen' safety in other ME countries. Nobody gives a damn about Turks. Turkey should do something.
They don't give a damn and will never give. Be grateful we got you back in ME arena, otherwise Turkey would have been left alone with no real friends. Arabs are not weak, we are 22 countries, and we got many hits but still on our feet. But, there is only one Turkey.
 
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1) I dont think our government is influenced by extreme Islamism. Our Islamism is more pragmatic than fundamentalist.

2) When USA invaded Iraq, it destroyed the status quo. Now Iraq came closer to Shia bloc. And Shia bloc covers the area of Lebanon, Syria, Iraq and Iran. Major Sunni countries collapsed by Arap Spring, such as Egypt, Libya etc... Sudan was divided.

3) Intentionally or unintentionally USA forced Turkey to counter Shia bloc rising. It is crucial to create a balance between two blocs. With Syria nad Iran showing hostility towards Turkish kinsmen whether Syrian Turkmens, Iraqi Turkmens or Azeris, Turkey should have no intention to play softer.

4) Israel struggles. With USA gone, Israel has no chance in ME. Hell they have no chance even in Palestine with their demographic structure collapsing. With Arab spring USA guaranteed ISrael that weakened Arab States should not pose threat to Israel.

5) It is win or lose scenario. Turkey has lot to lose if not acts in time. I dont like a Russian bear growls at my doorstep in near future. Blast them before they do, feel no remorse, thats why I meant.

Good analysis. I like it with one exception.

#4 - Israel and USA are not going anywhere. They are here to stay for a while. The way I see it, USA will have many more military bases around the region. This will reduce the importance of Israel in the eyes of USA, but it will not eliminate it.

And if USA goes out of ME, situation will be much worse. Turkey cannot face Russia alone. Russian weapons and military is too powerful for Turkey.

peace.
 
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Why should Turkey do that?Iran is not Turkey's enemy.We had really good relations until Turkey's stance on Syria.Turkey could stay neutral in the Syria issue,secure its border with Syria and stop sending militants in there.That would serve Turk's interests at best.Even Turkish nationalist are starting complaining about AKP stance toward Syria.
Your words show you have greatest concern about Sunnism and Shiism, because you only see Iran as your rival and enemy.Anyway,Turkey can not push Russia or Iran out of Caucasus, because they are a part of Caucasus.

I have been thinking about many things. Consider these probabilities:
- USA got out of ME because of severe economic crisis. Israel loses its regional power status without US backing.
- Russia consolidated, united with Belarus and Ukraine securing western front. Then turned his face to Caucasus. I dont wanna see Azerbaijan sandwiched between Russia, Iran and Armenia.
- Syria, Iraq and Iran are forming Shia bloc and starts using Kurds against Turkey. I see it probable.
- With EU on the west and Russia on the north, Shia bloc on the east Turkey is quasi-landlocked. Its political maneuverability is limited to Anatolia and wont go beyond its border.

- Or Perhaps with the Shia bloc gone, Iran can come closer into more pro-Turk stance or even transform into Turkic State. I may like it. We need a bridge between Europe and Central Asia.

They don't give a damn and will never give. Be grateful we got you back in ME arena, otherwise Turkey would have been left alone with no real friends. Arabs are not weak, we are 22 countries, and we got many hits but still on our feet. But, there is only one Turkey.

I see only Saudia Arabia influential. Sorry 22 Arab States are having no unity. Some Johnnies come from other side of Atlantic and bombs Iraq and Libya, you cherrish for Crusaders. Yeah, same thing gonna happen to every Arab State one by one. You Arabs have some serious problems in your mentality.

Yes there is only one Turkey. We have no luxury to play soft.
 
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