Turkey records nearly 1.2M live births in 2019 Total fertility rate was 1.88 last year, below popula

[AUz]

It's very good news. Almost always this is a milestone only achieved by highly developed countries. Whereas the least developed have the highest rates. Thus Turkey now belongs in the elite category of countries like Japan, Scandanavia etc.

Quality over quantity. Stabilty over chaos.

Oh is that why Japan is spending billions of dollars to increase their birth rates? May be South Korea did not get your memo because they have spent $121 billion to increase their birth rates. Stop talking about things you have no idea about.

Industrializing countries like Turkey (or Poland for that matter) need 2.3-2.7 TFR to truly thrive and grow at their optimal levels. That's why Erdogan keep aiming for "3 kids per woman"....Why you think that is? Because his economic experts tell him these things. Turkey is heading towards a cliff if it does not correct its birth rates. Turkey will get stuck in middle-income trap and lose its shot at becoming a truly regional superpower if it grows old too quickly.

1.58 kids per woman isn't "quality"----its disaster. Anyone who has taken advance macroeconomics and basic statistics in a good Western college knows this (and this explains your facile comments)

 

[T-123456]

Interesting that you have not included India and China.

The Uyghur are already coming when possible.
Yes i had forgotten India and Bangladesh but added etc just in case.

 

[Indus Pakistan]

This sums your maturity.

 

[Yankee-stani]

This sums your maturity.

I am mean I look at this way Turkey is in track on being a industrialized country but low birth rates could have big societal impact in both positive and negative sense question is for Turkey needs to encourage immigration from countries and cultures similar to its world view and mindset and keep TFR at least close to 1.9 or 2

 

[AUz]

This sums your maturity.

Pardon me for laughing at uninformed, trite comments about a field I know more about than would like to (My master's thesis had a demographic component to it). Good luck to Turks though. They'll need it---going by the way they are imploding demographically (and it is indeed hilarious that some bozos here think its a sign of 'progress' when South Korea has literally spent $121 billion+ to increase their birth rates. May be dumb Koreans don't know how 'progress' looks like )

Every single developed country below 1.9 TFR threshold is spending billions in hopes of reversing the fall. Whether Japan, Korea, U.S, Hungary, Poland, Russia, Norway, Germany, and so on. May be because experts in these rich nations know what you lot here at PDF dont

Turkey still has a chance....it has save itself from this cliff. Wishing them best of luck (and no, immigration is not a viable solution to demographic cliffs. I can do a whole data-set on it but meh....some other day may be)

 

[Nilgiri]

This sums your maturity.

The "islamist" "maturity" has some consequences on the demographic development of Pakistan compared to what were once peers there 40 years ago and 20 years ago:

https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.DYN.TFRT.IN?locations=IN-CN-PK-TR-BD-IR

https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.DYN.CBRT.IN?locations=IN-CN-PK-BD-IR-TR

https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.DYN.IMRT.IN?locations=IN-CN-PK-BD-TR-IR

This has severe consequences for you on many other development indicators (like education) given resources available (to be able to break out in quality over quantity w.r.t largely poor parents+society being able to focus more on such concept by way of fewer kids)

 

[Indus Pakistan]

I am mean I look at this way Turkey is in track on being a industrialized country but low birth rates could have big societal impact in both positive and negative sense question is for Turkey needs to encourage immigration from countries and cultures similar to its world view and mindset and keep TFR at least close to 1.9 or 2

Although son of a migrant I don't agree with the idea of migration as a economic salve in the 21st century. For the following reasons. As population drops, workforce reduces -

• This pushes wages up of the lowest paid jobs which helps those citizens at bottom of the pile.
• There is more impetus to invest in machines to increase productivity and increasing wages give impetus to this.
• More investment is made in workers to increase productivity and innovation recieves impetus.
  

 

[Arulmozhi Varman]

I hope to see India inside 1.9 soon.....

 

[KediKesenFare3]

What's more interesting is that our Kurdish female citizens - even in rural areas - have started to refuse giving birth to as many children as possible. In fact, Şanlıurfa is leading this ranking due to the native Arab population there.i

The pace of declining fertility rates among our Kurdish citizens is mind-blowing. Just 20 years ago a Kurdish woman had between 8 to 10 children. Today this rate is almost under 3.

Even the religious segments of our society are boycotting Mr. Erdoğan's advice of having as much children as possible.

I'm happy. Seeing India and other overpopulated countries and studying the science behind it, I know that a smaller population size is the base of success. Especially if we take into account all the digitalization.

Good news.

 

[Nilgiri]

I hope to see India inside 1.9 soon.....

It will hit 2.1 nationally in 2021 I think.

It should stabilise at 2.0, maybe 1.9. I would not want it going further down than that because there is not enough economic development boom for supporting older population (later down road) sustainably and fairly....it will need to be gentler fall of TFR compared to china for sure.

We already seeing some negative dependency ratio+aging effects happening in South where TFRs in some states have reached 1.6 and look to drop to even to 1.4. For some period of time we can balance this with higher TFR of centre and north etc (migrations + integration basically)...but thats already causing problems too in social frictions and north will soon be in low 2 TFR zone as well. We have to think about this sustainably and fairly and start a goal of every state being as close to 2.1 as possible and held there.... China will be suffering shortly by its huge draconian absolute push for example.

 

[KediKesenFare3]

Pardon me for laughing at uninformed, trite comments about a field I know more about than would like to (My master's thesis had a demographic component to it). Good luck to Turks though. They'll need it---going by the way they are imploding demographically (and it is indeed hilarious that some bozos here think its a sign of 'progress' when South Korea has literally spent $121 billion+ to increase their birth rates. May be dumb Koreans don't know how 'progress' looks like )

Every single developed country below 1.9 TFR threshold is spending billions in hopes of reversing the fall. Whether Japan, Korea, U.S, Hungary, Poland, Russia, Norway, Germany, and so on. May be because experts in these rich nations know what you lot here at PDF dont

Turkey still has a chance....it has save itself from this cliff. Wishing them best of luck (and no, immigration is not a viable solution to demographic cliffs. I can do a whole data-set on it but meh....some other day may be)

Once we have achieved the Japanese level of development, I'll be ready to worry about our demographics.

 

[AUz]

The "islamist" "maturity" has some consequences on the demographic development of Pakistan compared to what were once peers there 40 years ago and 20 years ago:

https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.DYN.TFRT.IN?locations=IN-CN-PK-TR-BD-IR

https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.DYN.CBRT.IN?locations=IN-CN-PK-BD-IR-TR

https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.DYN.IMRT.IN?locations=IN-CN-PK-BD-TR-IR

This has severe consequences for you on many other development indicators (like education) given resources available (to be able to break out in quality over quantity w.r.t largely poor parents+society being able to focus more on such concept by way of fewer kids)

You are smarter than this. I can post random facts that defy your simplistic logic.

Nobody here is arguing for high birth rates. What economists and development experts argue for are healthy demographics (Some call it the optimal demographics). Turkey's Demographics are heading towards bad demographics (like Russia's or South Koreas etc). I'm arguing for Turkey to maintain healthy demographics, not to have 5 kids per woman like Congo.

Pakistan's fertility rate was higher than India's even when the gap b/w Pakistan and India's GDP per capita was highest in Pakistan's favor. Indonesia's fertility rate is higher than India's----even though Indonesia beat India in every measure of development, health, prosperity, urbanization, GDP per capita etc

And? Your post is too reductionist and down-right laughable since you believe my views on demography, which are agreed upon universally by academic demographers, come from "iSlamIst" or whatever.

 

[Indus Pakistan]

Good news.

Happiness is not just numbers. Too many people per square mile effects your mental health, environment. Too many young people is recipe for crime, chaos, political instability. You can go on a Youtube tour of Mumbai and see if having so many people equals quality of life. It does not. This apparently is the most expensive home in the world. Frankly I much prefer my humble abode then this $1 billion home.

nigga it aint right and you knows it

Oh no. Who let you out of the zoo this time?

 

[Yankee-stani]

Although son of a migrant I don't agree with the idea of migration as a economic salve in the 21st century. For the following reasons. As population drops, workforce reduces -

• This pushes wages up of the lowest paid jobs which helps those citizens at bottom of the pile.
• There is more impetus to invest in machines to increase productivity and increasing wages give impetus to this.
• More investment is made in workers to increase productivity and innovation recieves impetus.

With the increase of automation in the coming decades I think the days of economic migration will be numbered also mix in anti migrant fevour it will be the end as for folks like you and me who are sons of migrants unless Pakistan becomes a ecnomic and political juggernaut the generations after me and you will lose connection to Pakistan which will be sad

I hope to see India inside 1.9 soon.....

No more boobs and vagene

 

[AUz]

Once we have achieved the Japanese level of development, I'll be ready to worry about our demographics.

That's exactly the point. You won't reach Japanese level of development with failing demographics and aging society At this pace, Turkey will become old before it becomes rich.

That's the whole point. Why don't you read your own economists/demographers' concern published by Turkish universities? I've read multiple papers from Turkish universities detailing exactly what I'm writing here. Want me to link you some?