Not as long as you think, or that monsieur Chang made it out to be. His comment runs contrary to what TSMC is actually doing in the US.
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (TSMC) will hold the first tool-in ceremony for its fab in the U.S. state of Arizona in December to install the first batch of production equipment in the plant, TSMC said on Tuesday.
focustaiwan.tw
The other major players are Intel and Micron and they, at least in principle, intends to invest in the US given the hard lessons of COVID and the Ukraine-Russia war is doing to the global supply chain in general and semicon products in particular. Once a fab is up and running, it can take up to two yrs to 'qual' the products from engineering to commodity status. Micron pledged $100 bils over 20 yrs and is currently expanding in Boise, ID, and purchasing property in Syracuse, NY. Intel is expanding in Arizona. So in the next five yrs, we will see at least two US source fabs entering engineering status.
That is a fair point. However, foundries specialized in older tech nodes and foundries usually use older tools that are proven to those older tech nodes. Newer fabs will have newer tools that will be more efficient and automation will make the product lines less labor intensive. Much of the current semicon products are still on the 200 mm, or 8-inch, wafer size and their fabs are configured accordingly. Newer fabs will move to the larger 300 mm, or 12-in, wafer and AMHS automation will be dominant.
Many discussions are currently underway concerning the imminent introduction of new 300 mm generation wafer fabrication facilities. An Automated Material Handling System (AMHS) is at the center of interest and various transport methods are being studied and proposed by various manufacturers and...
ieeexplore.ieee.org
Despite slowdown in some areas, shortages will continue into 2021 due to lack of equipment.
semiengineering.com
Then, at many foundries, relatively mature 40nm and 28nm processes in 300mm fabs are also in demand. “These nodes are being driven by consumer and communications applications. Applications such as gaming, wireless communications, and LED drivers are just some of the driving applications. In addition, 5G and mmWave-related devices are growing quickly,” Ng said.
300 mm wafers will make it economical.
The current 200 mm fabs cannot be converted to handle 300 mm wafers. The estimated conversion cost? Might as well build a brand new fab.