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Rover's Diary by Babar Ayaz

ARTICLE (May 04 2009): On the eve of President Zardari's visit to Washington, President Obama has given the edict that 'Pakistani government is extremely fragile.' But he expressed his confidence in the military of Pakistan, which, he said, is capable of protecting the country's nuclear arsenal. Many Pakistani politicians are hurt about this statement of fact. Truth always hurts. Isn't it?

However, the most significant part of the statement which came as news to Pakistanis is President Obama's statement that its (Pakistan's) military leaders and government officials only belatedly were recognising that their half-century-long pre-occupation with India had blinded them to the more immediate threat posed by the Taliban. He disclosed that "you're starting to see some recognition just in the last few days that the obsession with India as the mortal threat to Pakistan has been misguided, and that their biggest threat right now comes internally."

Now the usual presumption in the political circles here is that the Americans know our army better than us, because of frequent inter-action between the military leadership of the two countries. Apparently the focus of the army has shifted because of the immediate challenge to the writ of the army by the Fata and Swat Taliban.

For the time being it would not be wise to open another front and take on these Jehadi groups which are mostly based in Punjab, Azad Kashmir and some parts of NWFP. Undoubtedly the threat of Talibanisation which is coming from the North of the country has to be quashed first.

The good signal from across the eastern border is that in spite of the Mumbai carnage, no significant political party in India has gone on an anti-Pakistan propaganda binge during the election campaign. Most of the election campaigning was around regional issues. This would mean once again a weak central government in Delhi. The trend which has emerged after the completion of the third phase of elections shows that regional parties are likely to come out stronger than the last elections.

According to a leading Indian analyst Adit Jain "it does not matter much as to who leads the government. What matters more is by how much. An 'anchor' party with 180-190 seats will at the outset provide stability, as it will have more than an even chance of completing its term in office. More importantly, it would be able to push through initiatives that are essential to drive productivity gains. On the other hand, an anchor party with 150 seats may cobble up a fragmented coalition and at a stretch even attempt to do a little bit of good."

Most projections today, therefore, suggest a hung Parliament, and the spectre of a fractious Third Front coming to power is real again. Neither the Congress nor the BJP appears strong enough to win 180 seats on its own, the number generally considered as the minimum required to effectively 'anchor' a stable coalition.

Adit's IMA analysis is that emboldened by these developments in the UPA and NDA, a motley group of parties - headed by the Left - has presented itself as a serious contender for power. Today's 'bandwagon' has grown in size and pace in recent months, with the powerful BSP (in power in UP), BJD (in power in Orissa) and AIADMK (possible incumbent in Tamil Nadu) joining in - all lured by the prospect of winning either the Prime Minister's post, or important cabinet berths at the very least. Fuelling this sense of self-belief is the fact of heavyweights such as Ms Mayawati and Ms Jayalalithaa throwing in their lot with the Front - causing even more regional parties to sign on.

While a weak center and emergence of regional parties is the typical political development, which we have seen in many countries in the post Second World War period, the positive outcome of this phenomenon is that it results in devolution of power to the states/provinces. In Pakistan the results of the last two elections have shown the same trend - each province has elected regional parties. Even the PPP's main strength had come from Sindh and PML (N) from Punjab.

Coming back to President Obama's observation about Pakistan military overcoming its India obsession, we have to see how the new Indian government would like to deal with Pakistan after it settles in June 2009. A weak Indian government may resume confidence building measures, but would not be able to take any bold step towards solving the sore Kashmir issue. This bleeding wound of the sub-continent has to be closed with both India and Pakistan meeting each other half way. From Pakistan, if we believe President Obama, the shift in military thinking can go a long way in solving this pending matter. As unfortunate it may be the military's say is more important on this issue in Pakistan than the 'fragile government.' But the real question is will a weak government in Delhi have the courage to brush aside the slaves of history in the Indian establishment and shun the Indian big power arrogance?
 
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From Pakistan, if we believe President Obama, the shift in military thinking can go a long way in solving this pending matter. As unfortunate it may be the military's say is more important on this issue in Pakistan than the 'fragile government.' But the real question is will a weak government in Delhi have the courage to brush aside the slaves of history in the Indian establishment and shun the Indian big power arrogance?

I doubt that Pak Army will ever change half a century old thinking....after all i guess every pakistani if you ask him/her who our enemy is first name comes to mind is INDIA...and given india's provocations in december...i doubt the whole friendly atmosphere that prevailed in they end days of Musharaff will prevail any more...the honeymoon between india and pakistan is more or less over....however war is not the solution we should compete with India economically....
 
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From Pakistan, if we believe President Obama, the shift in military thinking can go a long way in solving this pending matter. As unfortunate it may be the military's say is more important on this issue in Pakistan than the 'fragile government.' But the real question is will a weak government in Delhi have the courage to brush aside the slaves of history in the Indian establishment and shun the Indian big power arrogance?

I doubt that Pak Army will ever change half a century old thinking....after all i guess every pakistani if you ask him/her who our enemy is first name comes to mind is INDIA...and given india's provocations in december...i doubt the whole friendly atmosphere that prevailed in they end days of Musharaff will prevail any more...the honeymoon between india and pakistan is more or less over....however war is not the solution we should compete with India economically....

Whoever comes to power after 2 weeks will not follow any independent path. As we have seen for the past decade and a half we have had 4-5 PMs with various alignments, but they basically followed the same policy.

Today as we have seen in the elections, the common man is more worried about development, Bijli Sadak aur Pani ( Electricity, Roads and Water). They all know that a war is going to push back the Indian economy by at least 20 years and no body wants that. The politicians can shout they can beat their patriotic chest but at the end of the day there will not be any unilateral military push by India.

It is the emerging Indian economy that has put India on the world map, and as you have suggested if Pakistan is also able to project this sof t power then it will 100 times more potent than the Nuclear Arsenal that you have.
 
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and yet india continues to buy 10 billion dollar worth of fighters....make more and more deals on phalcon radars with ISRAEL...and so on....india wishes to muscle pakistan into a corner....but unfortunately since the nuclear tests pakistan cannot be pushed into a corner but this is something india fails to recognize...
 
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and yet india continues to buy 10 billion dollar worth of fighters....make more and more deals on phalcon radars with ISRAEL...and so on....india wishes to muscle pakistan into a corner....but unfortunately since the nuclear tests pakistan cannot be pushed into a corner but this is something india fails to recognize...

The Nuclear bit is overplayed. Once used, it loses its relevance.

As regards buying weapons etc, Pak has only India to fear while India has more than Pak. Add to this its regional intentions / aspirations..

Seen from a Pak perspective , the above statement may seem correct but not when seen from an Indian one.

A strong boundary wall is essential to sleep well.
 
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third eye..BLIND....given history india has had 3 wars with pakistan...no other country in the area...NEPAL,BANGLADESH,BHUTAN none of them are a threat to INDIA....as for CHINA...trust me like you don't think of us as a "THREAT" i can assure you china doesn't think of you as a threat....
 
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As far as my thaughts are concerned most of India and Indian think pakistan is threat for India, and its true for sure. As for as other neighbours are concerned they are not a threat compared to pakistan, ya china is a different case. China has other thing on their mind, like Tiwan on top of the list andthen japan n etc. For china India is a threat or so called Threat but nothing compared to Tiwan isses as it has got supporting of US and china has to counter that upto certain extent.

ya truth is bitter and also hurt some time.
 
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third eye..BLIND....given history india has had 3 wars with pakistan...no other country in the area...NEPAL,BANGLADESH,BHUTAN none of them are a threat to INDIA....as for CHINA...trust me like you don't think of us as a "THREAT" i can assure you china doesn't think of you as a threat....

Funny isn't it ?

Pak keeps India in mind while considering its Def requirements. In so doing Af get " automatically' catered for.

India ( as per you) keeps China in mind while considering its Def requirements. In so doing Pak ' automatically' gets catered for.

... & the *** race goes on & on . The only beneficiaries being arms manufacturers who laugh their way to the bank !!
 
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the truth is Indians precieve PAKISTAN to be the threat it doesn't matter what some indians want to say.....US wants to hold influence over INDIA inrdoer to keep China in check...just the way Chinese want to influence us so western technogloy keeps filtering through...

the weaker and small nation always becomes a pawn....
 
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US wants to hold influence over INDIA inrdoer to keep China in check...just the way Chinese want to influence us so western technogloy keeps filtering through...

the weaker and small nation always becomes a pawn....



Thats correct, but some time pawn's can play way better games than the king, you would know that. ;)

Yup its true that Us is influenging India to counter China, most of the countires paly that card. But it depends on how well its planed. :rolleyes:

lets see how pakistan get out of influence of US as US is using Pakistan to counter Indian Hmmmm :whistle:
 
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I this the thread was started keeping mind pakistan, US, India. But here only India is been discuessed and othe Countries are kepd aside, if am not worng. :what:
 
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From Pakistan, if we believe President Obama, the shift in military thinking can go a long way in solving this pending matter. As unfortunate it may be the military's say is more important on this issue in Pakistan than the 'fragile government.' But the real question is will a weak government in Delhi have the courage to brush aside the slaves of history in the Indian establishment and shun the Indian big power arrogance?

I doubt that Pak Army will ever change half a century old thinking....after all i guess every pakistani if you ask him/her who our enemy is first name comes to mind is INDIA...and given india's provocations in december...i doubt the whole friendly atmosphere that prevailed in they end days of Musharaff will prevail any more...the honeymoon between india and pakistan is more or less over....however war is not the solution we should compete with India economically....



Hi Zob,

People, nations and armies who don't change their thinking / approach over the years and due to changing cicumstances meet their sad demise in the end.

Change is an integral part of nature and human development. Pak army's mentality of being india centric is redundant and a major part of their failure for not finishing up the job in the shortest possible time. They will make pakistan pay heavily for their failures.
 
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From Pakistan, if we believe President Obama, the shift in military thinking can go a long way in solving this pending matter. As unfortunate it may be the military's say is more important on this issue in Pakistan than the 'fragile government.' But the real question is will a weak government in Delhi have the courage to brush aside the slaves of history in the Indian establishment and shun the Indian big power arrogance?

I doubt that Pak Army will ever change half a century old thinking....after all i guess every pakistani if you ask him/her who our enemy is first name comes to mind is INDIA...and given india's provocations in december...i doubt the whole friendly atmosphere that prevailed in they end days of Musharaff will prevail any more...the honeymoon between india and pakistan is more or less over....however war is not the solution we should compete with India economically....

Yup Pakistan should compete with India economically which will finally statabalize pakistan, and will help pakistan to grow its influance on the region. And thsi will further stabalize relation between Pakistan and India and this warming of relationship in both will be the key solving issued between both of them. And considering the current scenario military conflict would be disaster for both, so its not an option for sure and both countries know it very well.
 
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