All these ridiculous arguments put up by Xeric and AM, do little to further our understanding of coming events inside Pakistan
Nice of you to call our arguments ridiculous when you haven't bothered to offer a rebuttal until this post ( and a pretty weak one at that) and indulged in 'airy fairy' rhetoric of 'love Pakistan vs hate India' etc.
-- to start off neither Xeric nor AM are persuaded that the principal enemy is thre Islamist insurgency.
That is a blatant and dishonest mischaracterization of our arguments and position, I suppose unsurprisingly since you have been unable to actually offer counterarguments to the points raised by us. Both of us recognize the extremist insurgency as a threat, but we also recognize India as a threat, and therefore our position is that both threats need to be catered to. In the context of COIN, Xeric and I have pointed out the COIN training and capacity building undertaken by the military already, the results it has delivered, and the continuing investment and focus on COIN training and capacity building. I have also pointed out how the use of the military as a COIN tool is reaching its pinnacle, and the need currently, in many of the FATA agencies and Swat, is for the civilian component of governance and security to step in and take over. It is those areas that currently are in need of greater reform and 'retooling', and even in that endeavor the military has played a significant role through training and equipping the FC and other local civilian law enforcement units. To this you, nor anyone else, has bothered to reply, merely continuing to regurgitate the same 'military must reform' rhetoric, seemingly without any comprehension about the counterarguments being made.
And then you have the temerity to just barge in and call our arguments 'ridiculous'. No sir, what is ridiculous and intellectually shallow are your posts so far, where you have offered nothing in the way of practical counterarguments and proposals, and chosen to take the route of spouting self-righteous, high flying ideological rhetoric about some future vision of Pakistan.
And really if you don't buy that basic premise, there is little to talk about - not suggesting that your position is devoid of substance, it's just not what the thread was about. India and adversary? Sure but that universe is not limited, tomorrow the list may include the US and NATO (as I am sure it will) but who are on the top of that list? No Indian is doing suicide ops in Pakistan -- anyway, if you are happiest using the Indian bogey, make hay while you can, because that game WILL evolve (that's that civilian politicos part of the AVM's paper) -- I suggest we love Pakistan more and hate India less - but you don't have to be persuaded by that (it's just that soon you will find that any other position will become very difficult indeed, only a change in civilian politics will effect that.
Again, if you would actually be bothered to read and understand the arguments made by Xeric and I, you would see that we have made proposals to advance Pakistan's COIN operations and development, and have outlined how those proposals are in fact more necessary, and better, than what the AVM and you have argued. It is you who has chosen a route of obfuscation and disingenuous arguments, while ignoring the very tangible proposals made by us RELATED TO THE TOPIC.
Xeric argues as if the position is that the Fauj become solely a counter insurgency force - this is most certainly not the position the AVM is advocating -- And the Americans have zip, zero, to do with the position presented by the AVM -
If it is not he position that the AVM and you are articulating, then the Fauj is very much on its way to implementing a dual COIN and conventional training program and infrastructure, and its performance so far in Swat and FATA speak to the success of those policies. I fail to understand then what it is that the AVM and you wish to be seen done.
And AM's arguments that money can be raised by efficient management and selling off state assets, well, we all agree but lets be reasonable, the politics behind selling of state assets which are sources of patronage and through which bureaucrats become millionaires, well, if that was politically feasible it would have already happened.
And who is going to handle the resources freed up by any reduction in the defence budget? The very same 'bureaucrats and politicians' you scoff at. No angels are going to descend from heaven to handle new resources and reforms - it will be the same people, whether you look to free resources from the military or the civilian side. At last with the reforms on the civilian side, the magnitude of resources freed will be significant enough to still make a huge impact, and likely surpass any savings from reductions in the defence budget, even after all the corruption.
But lets grant that the govt really does succeed in dumping it's loss making properties, will that mean that military spending as a percentage of GDP will now be able to increase without incurring political punishment??? Of course not -- as soon as things start to improve, the demand for "more" of the good life will increase (to my thinking the only improvement for the armed forces may be the defense production sector, especially if they can sell this as a jobs scheme).
Speculative argument. Yes, the military may request more hardware (after all, despite Vinod's disingenuous claims of 'qualitatively similar, the PA, PAF and PN are nowhere on the radar in terms of military acquisitions, dollar amount or numbers, compared to India.) But the resources generated through the civilian reforms should be more than enough to cater to both substantially increased development budgets as well as military acquisitions.
See that bit about India not so much of an adversary - what's that about?? -- Well, for Pakistan to transition from a state in crisis, to one on a trajectory of economic growth, the threats environment will have to change - no two ways about - The Pakistan Fauj have already lost Pakistan both the initiative and the capability to sustain itself -- it's own dogs have now turned on the Fauj and the state and it's economy cannot rescue her state and the leadership of her armed forces, sustain their position through deals made with foreigners.
For the threat environment to change the Indians have to meet us half way - the whole thing about 'clapping with two hands not one'. Negotiations between the two sides are on, perhaps we will see breakthroughs in the next few years. Remember that it was under a Military government (Musharraf) that Pakistan and India came closer than they perhaps ever have in normalizing their relationship, and it was not the Pakistani military that broke off that engagement, but the Indians, ostensibly over concerns regarding the political instability in Pakistan.
Lets be real with each other - Bravdo aside, chest thumping and the once great professional Fauj - We are everyday crying about not getting this or that funds from the US to fight our/their war (we are on sides, so it's theirs and our war) how much longer can this go on?? Not much longer at all and again, it's got little to do with the US and every thing to do with the future of Pakistan and the kind of Pakistan we may luck out be able to create.
That is precisely why we need the reforms mentioned on the civilian side, sine the resources freed up more than surpass the 'aid+CSF' received from the US. Not only could we step up investment in development projects, but fund the war against extremism ourselves.
