Top 20 ASIA'S BIGGEST ECONOMY in 2025 | ASIA 2025 Projected GDP

[Indos]

Indonesia's economy grows at fastest pace in more than a year in Q3​

A bird’s eye view of the Jakarta business district. — Reuters

• Monday, 07 Nov 2022
  1:51 PM MYT

JAKARTA: Indonesia's economy expanded at its fastest pace in more than a year in the third quarter, as improved investment and government spending underpinned growth in Southeast Asia's largest economy.

Gross domestic product expanded 5.72% year-on-year, up from 5.44% growth in the second quarter but below a forecast of 5.89% in a Reuters poll of economists.

Unadjusted for seasonal factors, GDP grew 1.81% from the previous three months, above the 1.62% growth forecast in the poll.

Investment expanded 4.96% annually in the third quarter - at its fastest pace in over a year - while government spending shrank more slowly than in the previous quarter.

Exports expanded nearly 22% year-on-year in the third quarter, picking up pace from growth of just under 20% in the April-June quarter. Indonesia expects to post the country's largest ever export earnings in 2022 as the resources-rich country has benefited from rising commodity prices.

While Indonesia's economy has seen an export boom this year, the outlook looks uncertain as tightening monetary policies across the world and soaring inflation risk derailing the global economy. An economic slowdown in China - Indonesia's biggest trade partner - and the Bank Indonesia's own rate-hiking campaign could also cloud the country's growth prospects.

"Indonesia's economic activity will tend to decline in the 4Q22 period, in line with the current declining global conditions ... as well as a restrained increase in purchasing power due to inflationary pressures," said Myrdal Gunarto, an economist at Maybank Indonesia.

He said the "strong" third-quarter figures reflected the normalisation of economic activities after the easing of COVID-19 restrictions earlier this year.

Bank Indonesia has raised interest rates by a total of 125 basis points since August to contain inflation, which hit a seven-year high in September after the government raised subsidised fuel prices that month.

Finance Minister Sri Mulyani Indrawati has said the government would work to maintain Indonesia's position as a relative "bright spot", but warned about the impact of a potential global recession.

Growth accelerated in the manufacturing, transport, wearhousing and hospitality industries, the data also showed. (Reporting by Gayatri Suroyo and Fransiska Nangoy; Additional reporting by Stefanno Sulaiman; Editing by Martin Petty and Ana Nicolaci da Costa)

Indonesia's economy grows at fastest pace in more than a year in Q3

JAKARTA: Indonesia's economy expanded at its fastest pace in more than a year in the third quarter, as improved investment and government spending underpinned growth in Southeast Asia's largest economy.

www.thestar.com.my

 

[Indos]

 

[Indos]

Goldman Sachs slashes India’s GDP forecast for 2023 to 5.9%​

Synopsis

The Indian economy which claimed the title of the fastest-growing major economy title in the previous fiscal is likely to lose its momentum in 2023 owing to higher borrowing costs and fading benefits from the Covid pandemic reopening, said Goldman Sachs in a note. Nomura expects India's GDP growth to slow from 7.2% y-o-y in 2022 to a below-consensus 4.7% in 2023.​

By
Anand JC

The Indian economy which claimed the title of the fastest-growing major economy title in the previous fiscal is likely to lose its momentum in 2023 owing to higher borrowing costs and fading benefits from the Covid pandemic reopening, said Goldman Sachs in a note.

Gross domestic product (GDP) may expand by 5.9% in the calendar year 2023 from an estimated 6.9% this year, Goldman economists led by Andrew Tilton wrote in a report Sunday as per Bloomberg.

“Growth will likely be a tale of two halves, with a slower first half as the reopening boost fades, and monetary tightening weighs on domestic demand. In the second half, growth is likely to re-accelerate as global growth recovers, drag from net exports diminishes, and investment cycle picks up.”


India's GDP grew by 8.7% in 2021-22.

Further, the firm expects headline retail inflation to ease to 6.1% next year from an estimated 6.8% this year. Inflation has remained above the Reserve Bank of India’s tolerance band of 6% for the last ten months and is likely to hover over that mark in the coming few months as per experts.

Economies have lost their growth momentum post-Covid-19 as central banks continued to aggressively hike rates in an attempt to curb spiralling inflation. The rate hikes are expected to hit sudden brakes on the growth momentum of advanced economies as well, spurring risks and worries of a global recession. The GDPs of developed economies are also set to take a hit, experts say

Trade data signals more doom

India’s export growth fell sharply in October, when it contracted 16.7% on annual basis from a growth of 4.8% seen in September, pointing to a decline in global demand.

India’s exports saw a contraction for the first time in the post-pandemic phase and the last time exports contracted was back in February 2021. And trade data shows that the Indian economy is sensitive to global demand sentiment as a result, India's GDP rate may also take a hit.

“India’s investment cycle is linked closely to the global growth and export cycles, which is expected to be an additional source of domestic headwind. We expect GDP growth to slow from 7.2% y-o-y in 2022 to a below-consensus 4.7% in 2023,” it added.

Goldman Sachs slashes India’s GDP forecast for 2023 to 5.9%

The Indian economy which claimed the title of the fastest-growing major economy title in the previous fiscal is likely to lose its momentum in 2023 owing to higher borrowing costs and fading benefits from the Covid pandemic reopening, said Goldman Sachs in a note. Nomura expects India's GDP...

economictimes.indiatimes.com

 

[Indos]

 

[Indos]

DW made wrong reporting on Indonesia. LOL

The riots only happen in 1998 Mei when soldiers shoot College students who are protesting to demand democracy. Student protest in 1997 is not related to economic downturn, student protest is done due to the demand for democracy.

The economic downturn is just the pretext the students used to make their main target achieve. Student protests done by university students are always conducted in peaceful manner. Riots only takes places for 2 days in some major cities and this also made Soeharto stepping down in 1998.

This is just showing that we should not believe on Western journalism without further research.

 

[Black Tornado]

Is Indonesian economy already facing headwinds?

Is Indonesian economy already facing headwinds?

As most of the investments were aimed to tap windfall from the commodity sector, with its short business cycle, they would not be sustainable in the long term.

www.thejakartapost.com

Indonesia 2023 GDP growth may slow to 4.4% - central bank

Indonesia 2023 GDP growth may slow to 4.4% - central bank By Reuters

Indonesia 2023 GDP growth may slow to 4.4% - central bank

www.investing.com

 

[Indos]

I still believe Indonesia will likely grow at around 5.5 percent in 2023.

The down turn on export is faced by all nations, not only Indonesia, but India has got the negative impact more profound by seeing their October export that is already decreasing around 17 percent compared to last year period. Indonesia October export is still growing around 17 % for example and the trade surplus is growing at 5.6 billion USD compared to previous month surplus at 4.9 billion USD.

Indonesian Q3 growth rate is 1.8 percent higher than Q2 growth in Q2Q basis. So the economy keep growing even during more difficult economic situation globally.

Unlike Indian economist, Indonesian economists has tendency to predict in pessimist mode, particularly Central Bank, while Indonesian Finance Minister has tendency to predict lower than the actual figure, but more optimist than our Central Bank.

The higher Central Bank interest rate is indeed biting the economy, but due to Indonesia banking system interest rate spread has bigger margin than other developing nation banks, it makes our banks is still able not to raise the lending rate in expense of their possible lower profit next year. This make Indonesian economy will likely not get as much negative impact as other countries due to that reasons.

Both the investment and export I expect will keep growing next year. Our FDI in first semester also grows at around 36 % compared to the same period of time last year.

 

[Indos]

India GDP growth halves in September quarter as COVID distortions pass​

People walk at a crowded market amidst the spread of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19), in the old quarters of Delhi, India, April 6, 2021. REUTERS/Anushree Fadnavis/File Photo


NEW DELHI, Nov 30 (Reuters) - India posted annual economic growth of 6.3% in its July-September quarter, less than half the 13.5% growth in the previous three months as distortions caused by COVID-19 lockdowns faded in Asia's third-largest economy.

Gross domestic product growth for the full fiscal year, which ends on March 31, is likely to be 6.8-7%, the government's chief economic advisor V. Anantha Nageswaran said after the release.

That would be broadly in line with pre-COVID rates before pandemic lockdowns triggered wild fluctuations.

The rate for the September quarter, the second of India's 2022/23 financial year, was just above the 6.2% forecast by economists in a Reuters poll.

Economists warned, however, that growth momentum may ease in the December quarter due to higher interest rates and slowing exports.

"Even as domestic growth drivers on services side continue to remain robust, weakening global demand amid tightening financial conditions remains the key risk for growth outlook for India," said Garima Kapoor, economist at Elara Capital.

Reuters Graphics Reuters Graphics
The Reserve Bank of India has raised rates by 190 basis points since May this year and is seen hiking again when its monetary policy committee meets in early December.

Slowing global growth has also started to hurt exports, which fell 17% over a year ago in October.

The Indian central bank sees GDP growth for the 12 months to March 31, 2023, at 7% but economists see risk of a downside to these forecasts.

Finance minister Nirmala Sitharaman, speaking at the Reuters NEXT conference ahead of the release, said she was looking forward to "a very good ... growing Indian economy this year and the next," fueled in part by capital expenditure.

Government capital spending increased more than 40% during the September quarter as the federal government stepped up expenditure on infrastructure from roads to railways.

Aided by pent-up demand, particularly for services, private consumption grew 9.7% compared to a year ago, while capital formation, an indictor of investment, increased 10% annually.

"Services on the supply side and investments in the demand side would continue to be the main drivers of growth," said Sujan Hazra, chief economist at Anand Rathi.

Among key sectors, agricultural output rose 4.6% while manufacturing fell 4.3% and the employment-generating construction sector saw a 6.6% annual increase in activity.

"In case of manufacturing it has been clearly affected by low growth for the small business sector and fall in profits that has affected value added for the organized sector," said Madan Sabnavis, chief economist at Bank of Baroda.

India GDP growth halves in September quarter as COVID distortions pass

India posted annual economic growth of 6.3% in its July-September quarter, less than half the 13.5% growth in the previous three months as distortions caused by COVID-19 lockdowns faded in Asia's third-largest economy.

www.reuters.com

 

[Indos]

Is Indonesian economy already facing headwinds?

Is Indonesian economy already facing headwinds?

As most of the investments were aimed to tap windfall from the commodity sector, with its short business cycle, they would not be sustainable in the long term.

www.thejakartapost.com

Indonesia 2023 GDP growth may slow to 4.4% - central bank

Indonesia 2023 GDP growth may slow to 4.4% - central bank By Reuters

Indonesia 2023 GDP growth may slow to 4.4% - central bank

www.investing.com

Latest projection on Indonesian economy after our Central Bank see Money Circulation and Bank loan disbursement (Credit growth) in latest report. AlhamduliLLAH my prediction of Indonesia economy to likely grow at 5.5 percent next year is not entirely nonsense.

BI projects national economy to grow 4.7-5.5 percent in 2024​

4 hours ago

Jakarta (ANTARA) - Bank Indonesia (BI) Governor Perry Warjiyo has forecast the national economy to grow in the 4.5-5.3 percent range in 2023 and further pick up to 4.7-5.5 percent in 2024.

"The growth will be fairly good, at 4.5-5.3 percent in 2023 and increase to 4.7-5.5 percent in 2024," Warjiyo stated at BI's annual meeting 2022 here on Wednesday.

Meanwhile, the inflation rate is expected to fall to 2.5 percent, give or take one percent, in 2024 from the normal projection of three percent, give or take one percent, in 2023.

In addition, external stability in 2024 will remain under control, with the current account expected to record a surplus of 0.2 percent or a deficit of 0.6 percent of the national gross domestic product (GDP), he stated.

He said the financial system resilience will remain good in terms of capital, credit risk, and liquidity, with credit growth projected to stay in the range of 10-12 percent in 2023 and 2024.

BI projects national economy to grow 4.7-5.5 percent in 2024

Bank Indonesia (BI) Governor Perry Warjiyo has forecast the national economy to grow in the 4.5-5.3 percent range in 2023 and further pick up to 4.7-5.5 ...

en.antaranews.com

 

[Indos]

Asia faces ‘tough decisions’ on inflation as oil prices rise, ADB says​

​

PUBLISHED TUE, APR 4 20231:57 AM EDT
UPDATED TUE, APR 4 20231:59 AM EDT
Sumathi Bala
KEY POINTS

• Higher oil prices will challenge regional governments to make “tough decisions” on inflation, said Albert Park, chief economist at the Asian Development Bank.
• Most of the Asian economies are importers of oil, like Indonesia and those in central Asia, he said. As a result, the latest sudden OPEC+ oil production cut, could lead to a spike in prices, the economist added.
• “With the OPEC oil price increase and the expected rising demand coming from China, we could see oil prices go beyond our forecast of $88,” Park told CNBC” Squawk Box Asia” on Tuesday.

We’re bullish on China and have lifted our 2023 growth forecast, says ADB
Squawk Box Asia

Higher oil prices will challenge regional governments to make “tough decisions” on inflation, said Albert Park, chief economist at the Asian Development Bank.

Most Asian economies are importers of oil, like Indonesia and those in central Asia, said Park. As a result, the latest sudden OPEC+ oil production cut could lead to a spike in prices, the economist added.

“With the OPEC oil price increase and the expected rising demand coming from China, we could see oil prices go beyond our forecast of $88,” he told CNBC “Squawk Box Asia” on Tuesday.

“That would put pressure on the region because higher oil, obviously, increase costs of production. They increase inflationary pressures as well.”

This puts “a lot of pressure” on regional governments to make “some tough decisions about trying to control inflation and support economic recovery,” the economist added.

On Sunday, several OPEC+ members said they will voluntarily cut a further combined 1.16 million barrels per day of production, in a move independent from the broader bloc’s output strategy.

It comes nearly six months after OPEC and its allies decided to cut output by two million barrels per day.

Inflation ‘moderating’​

Park said inflation within the region is “moderating.” But core inflation rates, which strips out volatile food and energy prices, “are still higher than normal” among many Asian economies, he added.

“Monetary authorities need to be vigilant, and we still may not have seen the end of high rate increases in the region,” said Park. “But certainly they’ve slowed down considerably.”

OPEC+ oil output cut contradicts its optimistic demand forecast: Consultancy
Street Signs Asia

Inflation is expected to moderate this year and next, gradually moving closer to pre-pandemic levels, ADB said in its report on regional outlook released on Tuesday. Headline inflation is forecast to decelerate to 4.2% in 2023 and 3.3% in 2024 — compared to 4.4% last year.

“While higher interest rates and still-elevated commodity prices are expected to shape the region’s inflation outlook, headline inflation should remain the same this year in East Asia and decline in other sub regions,” the report said.

China reopening impact​

The outlook for Asian economies has improved since China’s reopened and steered away from strict Covid restrictions last year, said ADB.

Growth in developing Asia is expected at 4.8% for 2023 and next year, with South Asia predicted to grow faster than other regions.

“Before China left zero Covid policy behind, our forecast for growth in China this year was 4.3%. But we’ve upgraded that in this announcement to 5%,” said Park.
“If the Chinese consumer comes back that’s going to be very good for the region. China, obviously, is a source of final demand for many goods produced in the region,” noted the economist.

More importantly, China’s economy has become increasingly “embedded in global value chains in the region,” he added. “The lack of lockdown risk in China really frees up supply chains, and that could be a boon” for the region.

But ADB warned there are “immediate and emerging challenges” that could still hold back the region’s recovery.

“The recent banking turmoil in Europe and the United States is an indication that financial stability risks have heightened. Policy makers should stay vigilant in the post-pandemic environment of higher interest rates and debt,” the bank said in its report.

Asia faces 'tough decisions' on inflation as oil prices rise, ADB says

Higher oil prices will challenge regional governments to make "tough decisions" to tackle inflation pressures, said Albert Park, chief economist at ADB.

www.cnbc.com

 

[xuxu1457]

In the case of high inflation all over the world, China has maintained a low inflation while developing its economy, which may be the reason why the world's factories produce a large number of goods.