Time for Pakistan to withdraw from the BTWC and CWC?

[Ahmet Pasha]

Powerful countries use em to fool the world and assert even more of their power. And still do what they signed against in convention.

All conventions and treatise are meaningless, should be torn up and we do what needs to be done, unfortunate as it is.

 

[khansaheeb]

fatality rate is too low to be an effective weapon

World economy in tatters, 500K mortality trajectory, this must be a low impact WMD?

 

[JafarQureshi]

Countries that withdraw from such treaties have to be ready for sanctions. Is Pakistan sure it is ready.

We are a Nuke power. They better think 100 times before taking such a step of imposing sanctions.

 

[KhanBaba2]

We are a Nuke power. They better think 100 times before taking such a step of imposing sanctions.

Check out North Korea.

 

[JafarQureshi]

Check out North Korea.

China will veto sanctions.

 

[KhanBaba2]

China will veto sanctions.

They couldn't even veto Masood Azhar forever. China is alone in the world and there is a limit to how much pressure it can resist for the sake of Pakistan.

 

[Shabi1]

Pakistan signed the BTWC in 1972 and ratified it in 1974 and signed and ratified the CWC in 1993. Israel has never signed the BTWC and has only signed but never ratied the CWC (it still maintains a CW stockplie). Given the advances in genomics and the high specificity of future bioweapons, coupled with Pakistan's developing chemicals and biologics capability, is it time for Pakistan to withdraw from these treaties?

This is a totally bonkers suggestion of absolutely no use to Pakistan.
Biological and chemical weapons affect civilian populations more than the military. Yes we should have a capability in this field but only limited to working on deterrence/protection in case we ever face them. While Pakistan's issue with India are limited to Kashmir where we consider the population just like our own, we also have sympathy with the Sikh and other populations on rest of the border. On the other hand India/RSS would like to get a opportunity to better commit genocide against Muslim populations so this would benefit them.

Pakistan has already spelled out it won't hesitate to use low yield nukes (Im guessing neutron bomb which is a cleaner nuke and implemented by US too for similar use) against Indian forces if they manage to overwhelm us so we already have a more effective deterrence.


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Neutron_bomb
Using neutron bombs to stop an enemy armored attack by rapidly incapacitating crews with a dose of 80+ Gy of radiation[44] would require exploding large numbers of them to blanket the enemy forces, destroying all normal civilian buildings within c. 600 meters of the immediate area.[44][45] Neutron activation from the explosions could make many building materials in the city radioactive, such as zinc coated steel/galvanized steel (see area denial use below).

Because liquid-filled objects like the human body are resistant to gross overpressure, the 4–5 psi blast overpressure would cause very few direct casualties at a range of c. 600 m. The powerful winds produced by this overpressure, however, could throw bodies into objects or throw debris at high velocity, including window glass, both with potentially lethal results. Casualties would be highly variable depending on surroundings, including potential building collapses.[46]

The pulse of neutron radiation would cause immediate and permanent incapacitation to unprotected outdoor humans in the open out to 900 meters,[9] with death occurring in one or two days. The median lethal dose (LD50) of 6 Gray would extend to between 1350 and 1400 meters for those unprotected and outdoors,[44] where approximately half of those exposed would die of radiation sickness after several weeks.

A human residing within, or simply shielded by, at least one concrete building with walls and ceilings 30 cm (12 in) thick, or alternatively of damp soil 24 inches thick, would receive a neutron radiation exposure reduced by a factor of 10.[47][48] Even near ground zero, basement sheltering or buildings with similar radiation shielding characteristics would drastically reduce the radiation dose.[4]

Furthermore, the neutron absorption spectrum of air is disputed by some authorities, and depends in part on absorption by hydrogen from water vapor. Thus, absorption might vary exponentially with humidity, making neutron bombs far more deadly in desert climates than in humid ones.[44

 

[nahtanbob]

World economy in tatters, 500K mortality trajectory, this must be a low impact WMD?

i would not want to devise my war plan behind a coronavirus

 

[khansaheeb]

i would not want to devise my war plan behind a coronavirus

It is only one weapon out of many, a good initial salvo to weaken the enemy and to shake their morale.

 

[Bilal Khan (Quwa)]

Pakistan should be working to get into more treaties (where sensible), not leaving them. We've been dinged hard by the FATF, can't afford more sanctions. Rather we should be stepping up efforts to enter the MTCR, WA, etc, or at least getting on the good side of these institutions so we can access key technologies.

 

[Karl]

Pakistan should be working to get into more treaties (where sensible), not leaving them. We've been dinged hard by the FATF, can't afford more sanctions. Rather we should be stepping up efforts to enter the MTCR, WA, etc, or at least getting on the good side of these institutions so we can access key technologies.

You're fooling yourself if you think the West is going to give up key technologies while Pakistan has been straightjacked by treaties. Just look how model treaty signer Turkey has been treated. It's 2020 and China and Russia still stuggle with aircraft engines, an old technology because of no transfer of tech from the west. Pakistan needs to develop technologies and research it can put into technical reserve before signing treaties. Signing the BWCT in the early 70's was in hindsight madness given the advances in genomics.

 

[nahtanbob]

It is only one weapon out of many, a good initial salvo to weaken the enemy and to shake their morale.

a weapon biological strike similar to coronavirus on America would invite devastating counter-strike
I am assuming we can trace the virus to the origin

 

[khansaheeb]

a weapon biological strike similar to coronavirus on America would invite devastating counter-strike
I am assuming we can trace the virus to the origin

Virtually impossible unless you catch someone in the act.

 

[Foxtrot Delta]

Most stupid suggestion ever made

 

[SABRE]

Pakistan should be working to get into more treaties (where sensible), not leaving them. We've been dinged hard by the FATF, can't afford more sanctions. Rather we should be stepping up efforts to enter the MTCR, WA, etc, or at least getting on the good side of these institutions so we can access key technologies.

We do qualify for the MTCR and at times we have shown interest in joining the regime. But whenever the time is ripe we decide to sit out on it, much like the Chinese do. I think a similar approach has been adopted for WA as well. Meanwhile, India has found its way into both regimes. We are mostly obsessed with NSG, though it's only logical as NSG takes the cake compared to other multilateral export control regimes. So far our efforts have been more geared towards ensuring that India doesn't join then towards fostering conditions that would make it difficult for Western powers to reject Pakistan's membership application. I think we need to prioritise both simultaneously.

Most stupid suggestion ever made

That's the politically correct phrasing for the topic. A more articulated one would be "costly suggestion ever made."

There is, however, a concern of trusting India in this regard. In 1992 we entered a bilateral chemical weapons treaty with India where both countries declared that they did not possess any chemical weapon stockpile. There was no verification mechanism, however. When India subsequently joined CWC it declared that it indeed had a chemical weapon stockpile.