No actually napoelon almost won the waterloo campaign strategically.Blucher and wellington would never had any chance to unite acc to napoleon's startegy of the central position.(i explained this strategy in my austerlitz battle report)However 2 things messed up - Ney's poor performance vs wellington's small force at quatre bras and d'erlon approaching Blucher's prussian army from the rear in a position to annihilate it completely at ligny on napoleon's orders before suddenly turning back and marching away on ney's counterorder.The prussian army would have been destroyed at ligny itslef had derlon's corps fallen at it from teh rear instead of just beaten.Napoleon achieved strategic surprise in the campaign,decieving wellington as to the direction of teh attack.''Napoleon has humbugged me by god'' he said.But this napoleon was not the napoleon of 1796 or 1805,more tired and more clumsy-also he had very poor subordiantes at waterloo.Lannes was dead,massena retired,suchet in italy,davout in paris,soult serving as a staff officer instead of marshal and ney commited large blunders,grouchy was passive.A bit of luck was on the allied side.Moreover in blucher and wellington he was facing 2 of the very competent allied commanders of their time.