Time for a TAP-LNG Pipeline

[TNT]

TAPI or TAP should have been completed in early 2000s, insread our stupid establishment plays politics. There is no long term vision.

 

[nahtanbob]

pipelines involve billions in investment. People do not invest until they have written promises of purchases or sales agreements
people are speculating too much

 

[CrazyZ]

TAPI or TAP should have been completed in early 2000s, insread our stupid establishment plays politics. There is no long term vision.

TAP went nowhere for the last 20 years since the old Kabul regime, USA and India didn't want it. Kabul regime was funded by USA military and economic aid.....didn't see the need to help out Turkmenistan or Pakistan. USA didn't want a competitor to its shale gas exports. India didn't want pipelines through Pakistan.

Situation on the ground is very different today. Relations between Pakistan and Russia/CIS have warmed dramatically. The Taliban need revenue. Energy inflation will be around for a few years, IMO. Conditions for completion of TAP is the best its ever been.

 

[Mr.Green]

It should be built on BOT basis without putting Pakistan and Afghanistan under further loans.

 

[CrazyZ]

pipelines involve billions in investment. People do not invest until they have written promises of purchases or sales agreements
people are speculating too much

Global natural gas demand exceeds supply right now. Pakistan and other developing countries can not buy gas on the open energy market since EU and other wealthy countries have taken it all. India as an anchor customer........isn't needed to make TAP work.

 

[CrazyZ]

It should be built on BOT basis without putting Pakistan and Afghanistan under further loans.

Turkmenistan offered this to the Taliban.

 

[CrazyZ]

By Amina Hakimi,
YESTERDAY - 8:28 PM - Edited: YESTERDAY - 8:52 PM

Kabul, Ashgabat Reach Agreements on TAPI: MoFA​

• The Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MoFA) said that the delegation of the Islamic Emirate on a visit to Turkmenistan reached agreements on important issues related to the TAPI (Turkmenistan, Afghanistan, Pakistan, India) pipeline.

According to a senior official of MoFA, the two sides reached an agreement on action plans for pipeline construction, the distribution of gas to industrial parks and residents of Herat, as well as the conversion of natural gas to LLG.
“First, the two sides agreed to form a schedule for the acquisition of land and the pipeline construction. Second, the two sides agreed to establish a network to distribute gas to the residents of Herat and industrial parks,” said Shafay Azam, head of the economic affairs of MoFA.

The Ministry of Economic said that it is ready to provide financial support to TAPI.

“The TAPI project is one of the important and fundamental projects that can facilitate political engagement, regional cooperation and regional development,” said Abdul Rahman Habib, a spokesman for the MoE.
Practical work in Afghanistan on the pipeline has not yet begun.

Economist Sayed Masoud said that the tensions between India and Pakistan have caused a delay in implementation of the TAPI pipeline project.

“First, there is tension between Pakistan and India, until this tension is solved, Pakistan will not let the project cross to India. Second, with the current political situation of Afghanistan, the international relations of the ruling (government) in Afghanistan are severe,” he said.

More than 80 km of the TAPI pipeline will cross from Afghan soil to Pakistan and India. The project is expected to provide job opportunities for thousands of people. It is estimated that Afghanistan will earn more than $400 million in revenue annually.

Kabul, Ashgabat Reach Agreements on TAPI: MoFA | TOLOnews

Economist Sayed Masoud said that the tensions between India and Pakistan have caused a delay in implementation of the TAPI pipeline project.

tolonews.com

 

[CrazyZ]

Turkmenistan: The Americans are coming​

Ashgabat has been assiduously courted by Russia, but that doesn't mean it is not looking at other options.​

Akhal-Teke: A Turkmenistan Bulletin Oct 11, 2022

Pumping out more fuel. (Photo: Turkmenbashi refinery website)
In late August, the president of Turkmenistan signaled that the end was near for price caps for staple goods in state-owned stores.
He has wasted no time.

As Vienna-based Chronicles of Turkmenistan reported on October 10, the cost of bread in government stores in the capital, Ashgabat, has quadrupled. And while the price of a flatbread has increased, the weight of a standard loaf has fallen.
Elsewhere in the country, expected amounts of price-controlled food have not been delivered at all, Chronicles reported.
These changes have not been compelled, however.

As the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development noted in its most recent Regional Economic Prospects review, sky-high global prices for energy resources have been kind to Turkmen coffers.
“Turkmenistan has a healthy fiscal balance, supported by elevated gas revenues and low public debt. While official estimates are not available, inflation is likely to remain in low double digits, below the end-2021 level of 21 percent,” the authors of the review wrote.
Not that Turkmenistan is able to get anywhere as much of its fuel riches as it would like onto the world market. For the umpteenth time, President Serdar Berdymukhamedov called at an October 10 Cabinet meeting for implementation to be speeded up in the project to build the trans-Afghan TAPI natural gas pipeline.

But at least practical work is being done. This week, a delegation of the Taliban-run government in Afghanistan visited Ashgabat to agree on an action plan on the TAPI project, Kabul-based outlet TOLO News reported on October 9.
“First, the two sides agreed to form a schedule for the acquisition of land and the pipeline construction. Second, the two sides agreed to establish a network to distribute gas to the residents of Herat and industrial parks,” Shafay Azam, head of the economic affairs department in the Taliban’s Foreign Ministry, was quoted as saying.

Berdymukhamedov likewise wants to see the tempo increased in getting the TAPI-parallel project to build a high-voltage power line to Afghanistan and then Pakistan and India off the ground. Attracting investors interested in working on that project and the construction of a more than 1,000-kilometer-long electricity grid ringing the country are “priorities,” he said.

Turkmenistan has been receiving much attention from an increasingly friendless Russia in recent months and years. That does not mean that relations with Ukraine have cooled, however.
In a long interview published in the state’s Neutral Turkmenistan daily on October 10, the Ukrainian ambassador to Ashgabat talked about how Kyiv deems Turkmenistan a key partner in Central Asia.
"Ukraine highly appreciates its relations with Turkmenistan, which are developing in the spirit of strategic partnership, and it looks forward to deepening further cooperation for the benefit of the people of both countries," Viktor Maiko told the newspaper.
Ukrainian companies have indeed scored some important successes in Turkmenistan.

In August, Ukrainian infrastructure builder Altcom started work on a new bridge along the western fringe of the Garabogazköl lagoon. The road will ease transport to Kazakhstan and is being billed as a promising way for freight companies to travel from Russia to the Persian Gulf.
Maiko namechecked several other companies – heavy machinery manufacturer Sumy NPO, infrastructure builder Interbudmontazh, steel pipes producer Interpipe, gas turbine maker Zorya-Mashproekt, and the Kriukiv Railway Car Manufacturing Plant – as success stories in Turkmenistan. And in the energy sector, Ukraine’s Yug-Neftegaz has signed a contract with Turkmenistan’s state geology agency to conduct surveys of the Goturdepe oil and gas field and in the South Burun region of western Turkmenistan.
No mention was made of the war in the interview.

Turkmenistan is enthusiastic about doing more business with yet another Russia foe: the United States.
A group of U.S. executives and Washington’s man in Ashgabat got on a videoconference call with several top Turkmen officials on October 5 for a routine meeting of the Turkmenistan-U.S. Business Council. The companies represented included several big-ticket names like John Deere, Case New Holland, Boeing, Exxon Mobil, General Electric, Coca-Cola, Caterpillar and Visa. Discussions included a possible visit to Turkmenistan by a delegation of American businesspeople before the close of the year.
The priority for Ashgabat seems to be diversification. Turkmenistan wants to be seen as an investment destination in areas other than just energy.

Also on October 5, Deputy Foreign Minister Vepa Khadzhiyev, who has served as his government’s point-man on Afghanistan, met with Paul Dean, the Principal Deputy Assistant Secretary in the U.S. Bureau of Arms Control, Verification and Compliance, for talks. The ministry’s statement offered sparse detail, noting merely that the “parties considered issues on the regional and international agenda [and] stressed the need to effectively counter modern challenges and threats, and discussed … confidence-building measures in arms control.”
Berdymukhamedov is poised for some international travel. He is due to travel to Kazakhstan for a state visit on October 15. That schedule suggests he will not, however, be attending a Central Asia-Russia summit of heads of state to take place in Astana on October 14.
The president is also being awaited in Qatar. The Foreign Ministry in Ashgabat and the chargé d'affaires at the Qatari Embassy met on October 8 to discuss preparations for that upcoming visit. No date has been announced.

Talk in Doha is bound to concentrate heavily on the subject of natural gas. Qatar outmatches even Turkmenistan for the size of its confirmed gas reserves. What is more, it is far better positioned, geographically, financially, and technologically, to get that fuel onto the world market.
Turkmenistan can only look on with envy at Qatar’s liquid natural gas-producing capabilities. But it is trying to make progress on this front. Last month, Berdymukhamedov heard a report from Shahym Abdrahamov, the deputy prime minister with the portfolio for oil and gas, on a project to modernize the Bagajin gas refining and liquified gas production facility.

At present, the Turkmenbashi complex of oil refineries produces more than 300,000 tons of LNG, which is around two-thirds of what the country produces overall. The government is ambitious for the figure to grow, and fast. Cooperation with Qatar may be key to achieving this.

Turkmenistan: The Americans are coming

Turkmenistan has been courted assiduously by Russia, but that doesn't mean it isn't looking for other options. Our weekly briefing.

eurasianet.org

I must give Berdymukhamedov credit.....he is pushing hard to get TAPI going again. Seems Turkmenistan is trying to get American and Qatari investors for TAPI. Our moron FM is busy crying about climate change in Germany when he should be talking to German investors about building TAP and LNG plants in Pakistan.

 

[FuturePAF]

Who would invest in it? And more importantly, who (domestically and amongst Pakistan’s allies) would try to block it from being built as it would be against their interests? Before this pipeline, building the railway between Peshawar and Uzbekistan should be built first. Oil and liquified gas can be shipping via rail as well. Once a rail corridor is in place, pipelines can parallel the rail corridors, and expand the supply away from just Turkmenistan (which probably has political reservations and wants to stay neutral) to a more Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan option.

Once the first rail corridor is in place and a few years have passed since the change in government in Kabul and the Afghans get some international recognition, investment for pipelines will flow in. Especially if it means to contain Russian, Chinese, and Iranian interests in Central Asia with opportunities to develop petrochemical and mining resources in a ever more competitive world.

For Pakistan, laying the ground work and finding a way to smooth this over with its allies in OPEC will be crucial. Investment opportunities shouldn’t be offered to GCC investors to get their buy in, so it’s win win for all parties. Greater oil and gas supplies from Central Asia will also be a way to keep the pressure not to lift oil/gas restrictions on Iran, which is in GCC interests. For Pakistan, getting cheap oil and gas is essential to build up a petrochemical industry and gain international influence as the western friendly conduit for Central Asia oil and gas outside of Turkey. This is a point that Pakistan needs to focus on to counter balance India internationally (through economic geopolitical influence and by subsiding its own economic growth) and impress upon the Afghans as crucial to the survival of their regime and the first step to getting western investors for their mining projects (so they aren’t fully dependent on the Chinese).

So we need to forget the TAPI pipeline for now and focus on the rail link and a pipeline paralleling it from Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan. Pakistan needs to move fast to leverage the political situation in Afghanistan while it is still relatively stable. Once the Uzbekistan rail and pipeline are in place, built and extension of the rail line from Kabul to Kandahar and then to Quetta for the mining projects as well as then building the TAP Pipeline down to Karachi and/or Gwadar; depending on the political winds at that time.

A correction, it should have read “Investment opportunities should be offered to GCC investors to get their buy in, so it’s win win for all parties.”

 

[FuturePAF]

LNG could also be shipping by rail. So building that rail link ASAP should be a priority for the Afghans and Pakistan. It’s the best way to solve a lot of economic and international political problems. There is no shortage of labor around for the infrastructure to be built by hand. Time is of the essence, so it should be done on a war footing.

If the Afghans hire a Chinese firm to lay out the work that needs to be done and how it can be done with manual local labor, it’s possible any money that comes to Afghanistan central bank could be used to pay workers to carve out routes paralleling the salang pass, as well as the Chinese consulting and construction companies. A single track of freight with room for a parallel track should be done to start the process.

With Oil and gas flowing the Afghans will have an easier case for solving their international recognition problem and both Pakistan and Afghanistan can benefit from development of Afghan mineral resources, transported over the rail line.

In Recent years an alternative route to the salami pass option was studied and found to be better. One that goes through Bamiyan. The Salang pass is to close to Panjshir, so if in the future forces hostile to the rail route entrench themselves there, a route through Bamiyan should be easier to defend.

Turkmenistan: The Americans are coming​

Ashgabat has been assiduously courted by Russia, but that doesn't mean it is not looking at other options.​

Akhal-Teke: A Turkmenistan Bulletin Oct 11, 2022

Pumping out more fuel. (Photo: Turkmenbashi refinery website)
In late August, the president of Turkmenistan signaled that the end was near for price caps for staple goods in state-owned stores.
He has wasted no time.

As Vienna-based Chronicles of Turkmenistan reported on October 10, the cost of bread in government stores in the capital, Ashgabat, has quadrupled. And while the price of a flatbread has increased, the weight of a standard loaf has fallen.
Elsewhere in the country, expected amounts of price-controlled food have not been delivered at all, Chronicles reported.
These changes have not been compelled, however.

As the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development noted in its most recent Regional Economic Prospects review, sky-high global prices for energy resources have been kind to Turkmen coffers.
“Turkmenistan has a healthy fiscal balance, supported by elevated gas revenues and low public debt. While official estimates are not available, inflation is likely to remain in low double digits, below the end-2021 level of 21 percent,” the authors of the review wrote.
Not that Turkmenistan is able to get anywhere as much of its fuel riches as it would like onto the world market. For the umpteenth time, President Serdar Berdymukhamedov called at an October 10 Cabinet meeting for implementation to be speeded up in the project to build the trans-Afghan TAPI natural gas pipeline.

But at least practical work is being done. This week, a delegation of the Taliban-run government in Afghanistan visited Ashgabat to agree on an action plan on the TAPI project, Kabul-based outlet TOLO News reported on October 9.
“First, the two sides agreed to form a schedule for the acquisition of land and the pipeline construction. Second, the two sides agreed to establish a network to distribute gas to the residents of Herat and industrial parks,” Shafay Azam, head of the economic affairs department in the Taliban’s Foreign Ministry, was quoted as saying.

Berdymukhamedov likewise wants to see the tempo increased in getting the TAPI-parallel project to build a high-voltage power line to Afghanistan and then Pakistan and India off the ground. Attracting investors interested in working on that project and the construction of a more than 1,000-kilometer-long electricity grid ringing the country are “priorities,” he said.

Turkmenistan has been receiving much attention from an increasingly friendless Russia in recent months and years. That does not mean that relations with Ukraine have cooled, however.
In a long interview published in the state’s Neutral Turkmenistan daily on October 10, the Ukrainian ambassador to Ashgabat talked about how Kyiv deems Turkmenistan a key partner in Central Asia.
"Ukraine highly appreciates its relations with Turkmenistan, which are developing in the spirit of strategic partnership, and it looks forward to deepening further cooperation for the benefit of the people of both countries," Viktor Maiko told the newspaper.
Ukrainian companies have indeed scored some important successes in Turkmenistan.

In August, Ukrainian infrastructure builder Altcom started work on a new bridge along the western fringe of the Garabogazköl lagoon. The road will ease transport to Kazakhstan and is being billed as a promising way for freight companies to travel from Russia to the Persian Gulf.
Maiko namechecked several other companies – heavy machinery manufacturer Sumy NPO, infrastructure builder Interbudmontazh, steel pipes producer Interpipe, gas turbine maker Zorya-Mashproekt, and the Kriukiv Railway Car Manufacturing Plant – as success stories in Turkmenistan. And in the energy sector, Ukraine’s Yug-Neftegaz has signed a contract with Turkmenistan’s state geology agency to conduct surveys of the Goturdepe oil and gas field and in the South Burun region of western Turkmenistan.
No mention was made of the war in the interview.

Turkmenistan is enthusiastic about doing more business with yet another Russia foe: the United States.
A group of U.S. executives and Washington’s man in Ashgabat got on a videoconference call with several top Turkmen officials on October 5 for a routine meeting of the Turkmenistan-U.S. Business Council. The companies represented included several big-ticket names like John Deere, Case New Holland, Boeing, Exxon Mobil, General Electric, Coca-Cola, Caterpillar and Visa. Discussions included a possible visit to Turkmenistan by a delegation of American businesspeople before the close of the year.
The priority for Ashgabat seems to be diversification. Turkmenistan wants to be seen as an investment destination in areas other than just energy.

Also on October 5, Deputy Foreign Minister Vepa Khadzhiyev, who has served as his government’s point-man on Afghanistan, met with Paul Dean, the Principal Deputy Assistant Secretary in the U.S. Bureau of Arms Control, Verification and Compliance, for talks. The ministry’s statement offered sparse detail, noting merely that the “parties considered issues on the regional and international agenda [and] stressed the need to effectively counter modern challenges and threats, and discussed … confidence-building measures in arms control.”
Berdymukhamedov is poised for some international travel. He is due to travel to Kazakhstan for a state visit on October 15. That schedule suggests he will not, however, be attending a Central Asia-Russia summit of heads of state to take place in Astana on October 14.
The president is also being awaited in Qatar. The Foreign Ministry in Ashgabat and the chargé d'affaires at the Qatari Embassy met on October 8 to discuss preparations for that upcoming visit. No date has been announced.

Talk in Doha is bound to concentrate heavily on the subject of natural gas. Qatar outmatches even Turkmenistan for the size of its confirmed gas reserves. What is more, it is far better positioned, geographically, financially, and technologically, to get that fuel onto the world market.
Turkmenistan can only look on with envy at Qatar’s liquid natural gas-producing capabilities. But it is trying to make progress on this front. Last month, Berdymukhamedov heard a report from Shahym Abdrahamov, the deputy prime minister with the portfolio for oil and gas, on a project to modernize the Bagajin gas refining and liquified gas production facility.

At present, the Turkmenbashi complex of oil refineries produces more than 300,000 tons of LNG, which is around two-thirds of what the country produces overall. The government is ambitious for the figure to grow, and fast. Cooperation with Qatar may be key to achieving this.

Turkmenistan: The Americans are coming

Turkmenistan has been courted assiduously by Russia, but that doesn't mean it isn't looking for other options. Our weekly briefing.

eurasianet.org

I must give Berdymukhamedov credit.....he is pushing hard to get TAPI going again. Seems Turkmenistan is trying to get American and Qatari investors for TAPI. Our moron FM is busy crying about climate change in Germany when he should be talking to German investors about building TAP and LNG plants in Pakistan.

Considering how much it costs to get shale oil out and how much US firms invested into Russia itself and were then thrown out, an opportunity to go back into a Former Soviet republic and build a pipeline from proven reserves is a no-brainer. Especially if it undercuts Russian, Iranian, and Chinese influence in the region.

The Russians and Iranians blocking the building of a pipeline across the Caspian is a godsend to Pakistan. Hopefully the Turkmens will push this we’re even the current FM won’t be able to mess it up. I hope at the very least the current FM’s team has the foresight to at least get a decent sized refinery built in Karachi, where the pipeline is expected to terminate. If they are halfway decent, I would hope they would use the pipeline as leverage to get concessions out of India if the TAPI pipeline forks and goes to India as originally planned.