MilSpec
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Please discuss
Will Pakistan Do the unthinkable?
With all due respect, there is no situation where Pakistani Military can Lose in the situations.
For your Discussion
My personal opinion is it comes down to Pakistani military choosing to preserve itself along with it's influence on the country vs launching Tactical nukes which will ensure an MAD situation, if push comes to shove, what does the military brass choose?
Does decide to go kamakazi, ensuring complete annihilation of it's influence on the country, some part of India, and all it's infrastructure, just too stand behind some terrorists .....
OR
Does it consolidate it's choke hold with a loss at minimal standoff with Indian forces on the borders , and choose the straight path be owners of a country for the next couple of decades, as demonstrated at every standoff with Indian Forces....
I am guessing the later,it's cleaner, more efficient, and wonderfully places a decade or two of the armed forces in the driver seat for every debacle that pakistani military has, it is never the military that owns up to the guilt of defeat, it's either some generals or some ministers that are made the scape goat, and works perfectly for the Military Machine in Pakistan. What makes you think it would be any different this time around.....
Counter Narrative
All of the above is if any of sequence of events are as you mention. but most likely there will be no cold start as a military riposte to massive terror attack in India.
The payback that you have mentioned has no specific measurable metric and thus holds no value for the Indian government. The investment in such mass conventional strike does not have any value as the payback even if pakistani military surrenders is very low. This is no longer an east Pakistan where mitigating two sided geographical military threat would have been strategically paramount, even with the surrender of pakistan after a limited confrontation, the strategic equation will return to the same scenario in two to three decades, and the cycle will continue, hence conventional strike - followed by MAD or otherwise has no benefits for India.
Instead a next generation warfare of weakening pakistani economy, marginalizing international trade by competing and subsidizing the market players, Pressuring internal markets, lowering economic investment threshold, diplomatic marginalization, will lead to a much better return on investment by weakening of Pakistani institutions, without expending any of massive reserves in India.
Asymmetric assets which roam free in pakistan, which are a direct product of Pakistani Intel agencies deliberate negligence and in some cases assistance, do not need any additional assistance from Indian Intel agencies, All they need is weak institutions which has been a highlight of Pakistan as a nation, That is what India can concentrate on, why fight pakistan on it's strengths like it's premier institution like military, when it's soft underbelly is it's weak "idaare". Hit where it hurts the most.
If pakistan keeps showing hostile intents towards India through terrorism, then all options in sphere of modern warfare, conventional, non-conventional, Economic, diplomatic marginalization, political destabilization.... all is fair game
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