The world needs Biden and Xi to lead, even with U.S.-China relations on the edge

[beijingwalker]

The world needs Biden and Xi to lead, even with U.S.-China relations on the edge​

Provided by Dow Jones
Nov 3, 2023 2:02 AM GMT+8
By Stephen S. Roach

Summit in San Francisco could be a much-needed second chance for the world's two superpowers -- and their leaders

As tensions escalate between two uncommunicative militaries, the risks of accidental conflict are high and rising.

All eyes are on the upcoming leaders' meeting of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC), to be held in San Francisco Nov. 11-17. And with good reason: there is a distinct possibility that U.S. President Joe Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping will meet on the sidelines of this pan-regional gathering, exactly one year after their last summit in Bali on the eve of the annual G20 summit.

The Bali meeting accomplished little. While Biden and Xi agreed to set a "floor" for the deteriorating Sino-American relationship, the outcome has been anything but stable. Less than three months after the Bali summit, the U.S. downing of a Chinese surveillance balloon was followed by a temporary freeze in diplomatic engagement, additional sanctions on Chinese technology, and several close calls between the world's two most powerful militaries. Meanwhile, the U.S. Congress has turned up the heat on China over Taiwan, and Xi accused the United States of implementing "all-around containment." Some floor!

A Biden-Xi summit now could be a sorely needed second chance. Both sides appear to be hard at work preparing. Unlike the Bali meeting, the San Francisco summit must be scripted for success. With the U.S.-China relationship in serious trouble, and a war-torn world in urgent need of leadership, this summit should pursue three key objectives.

The first is deliverables. Notwithstanding America's revisionist aversion to engagement with China -- in effect, blaming the current conflict on decades of "appeasement" that began when China joined the World Trade Organization in 2001 -- it is critical to find common ground on which to re-establish constructive dialogue.

The focus should be less on sloganeering -- last year's "floor" or this year's "de-risking" -- and more on clear and achievable objectives. This could include reopening closed consulates (for example, the U.S. consulate in Chengdu and the Chinese consulate in Houston), relaxing visa requirements, increasing direct air flights (now 24 per week, compared to more than 150 pre-COVID), and restarting popular student exchanges (such as the Fulbright Program).

Improving people-to-people ties -- which the two presidents can easily address if they are serious about re-engagement -- often leads to reduced political animosity. By reaching for the low-hanging fruit, Biden and Xi could open the door to talks on more contentious topics, such as relaxing constraints on NGOs, the glue that holds societies together, or tackling the fentanyl crisis, in which both countries play a key role.
The U.S. and China could make a real difference by brokering peace agreements in Ukraine and the Middle East.

But the most urgent deliverable would be a resumption of regular military-to-military communications, which the Chinese suspended after former U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi visited Taiwan in August 2022. The danger posed by this breakdown in military contacts was glaringly obvious during the balloon fiasco in early February, as well as in recent near-misses between the two superpowers' warships in the Taiwan Strait and aircraft over the South China Sea. As tensions escalate between two uncommunicative militaries, the risks of accidental conflict are high and rising.

Second, it is also necessary to articulate aspirational goals. A joint statement from Biden and Xi should underscore their shared recognition of two existential threats facing both countries: climate change and global health. Even though U.S. Special Presidential Envoy for Climate John Kerry has met with senior Chinese officials several times this year, collaboration on clean energy has stalled, owing to alleged national-security concerns on both sides. Moreover, progress on global health continues to be stymied by the political theater of the charged debate over the origins of COVID-19.

Of course, a Biden-Xi summit can hardly be expected to resolve these existential problems. But naming them is an important symbolic gesture, evidence of a shared commitment to the collective stewardship of an increasingly precarious world. That is especially the case with the outbreak of the Israel-Hamas war, which risks spilling over into a major regional conflict at the same time that the Ukraine war is at a pivotal moment. The U.S. and China could make a real difference by brokering peace agreements in both wars.

Third, Sino-American relations need a new architecture of engagement. A Biden-Xi meeting at APEC would certainly be a positive development. But annual summits aren't enough to resolve deep-rooted conflicts between two superpowers.

I have long favored a shift from the personalized diplomacy that occurs during infrequent leader-to-leader meetings to an institutionalized model of engagement that provides a permanent, robust framework for continuous trouble-shooting and problem solving.

My proposal for a U.S.-China Secretariat is one such possibility. Despite the generally positive reception to this idea in China and elsewhere in Asia, American policymakers have shown no interest. In fact, U.S. Representative Mike Gallagher, the Republican Chairman of the new House Select Committee on China, is beating the drum of "zombie engagement," warning that efforts to reconnect with the Chinese could lead to America's demise.

At the same time, I am encouraged by the establishment of four new U.S.-Chinese working groups -- a result of recent diplomatic efforts. But this is not nearly enough, especially when compared with the 16 active working groups that were established under the umbrella of the Joint Commission on Commerce and Trade, which the Trump administration disbanded in 2017.

Summits between national leaders are often nothing more than media events. Unfortunately, that was the case last year in Bali. Neither the U.S. nor China, to say nothing for the rest of the world, can afford a similarly vacuous outcome this year in San Francisco. The time for collective action is growing short. Any opportunity for Biden and Xi to agree on realistic deliverables, underscore aspirational goals and lay the foundations for a new architecture of engagement must not be squandered.

The world needs Biden and Xi to lead, even with U.S.-China relations on the edge

www.morningstar.com

 

[etylo]

What's there for Xi to talk to Biden at another meeting ? Biden and US side never keep their words and always stab China from the back right after agreement. Xi maybe better not to travel to US for APEC since US is basically a mafia state that will not hesitate to use all dirty tricks such as blackmail and kidnapping on foreign state officials and company CEOs.

 

[MajesticPug]

China needs cooperation from the Axis of Evils? No, I don't think so. It's just what Xi hopes, or fantasizes. The Axis of Evils will not leave China alone to develop peacefully.

 

[beijingwalker]

US-China ties: don't expect any breakthroughs when Xi and Biden meet, analysts say​

Thu, November 2, 2023 at 5:30 PM GMT+8·7 min read

Preparations are in full swing for a summit between Xi Jinping and Joe Biden this month, but analysts say they do not expect any breakthroughs given the long-standing issues looming over the talks.

They say the much-anticipated meeting could, however, bode well for US-China ties and send a positive signal to regional countries that the world's two biggest economies are managing their differences and trying to ease tensions.

The White House confirmed on Tuesday that the two leaders would meet in San Francisco later this month, with press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre saying Biden was expected to have a "tough ... but important conversation" with the Chinese leader. Beijing has yet to confirm Xi's attendance.

Do you have questions about the biggest topics and trends from around the world? Get the answers with SCMP Knowledge, our new platform of curated content with explainers, FAQs, analyses and infographics brought to you by our award-winning team.

The US confirmation came after last week's talks between China's top diplomat Wang Yi and key officials in Washington including Secretary of State Antony Blinken and national security adviser Jake Sullivan. They had agreed to "make joint efforts to clinch a meeting" between the two heads of state.

The US will host the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in San Francisco from November 11, and the American and Chinese presidents are expected to meet on the sidelines of the gathering. The Chinese foreign minister also met Biden during his three-day visit to Washington last week.

But according to a statement from China's foreign ministry, Wang cautioned that "the road to the San Francisco summit will not be a smooth one", and that the two countries "cannot rely on autopilot" for it to happen.

Diplomatic observers are largely keeping expectations low in terms of what the meeting - the leaders' first in-person talks in a year - can actually achieve.

"I do not expect a major breakthrough. I do not expect a major thaw," said Chong Ja Ian, a political scientist at the National University of Singapore.

He said he expected both sides to try to get a better understanding of each other's position while signalling a desire for further dialogue.

"There may be some establishment of more stable mutual expectations, perhaps more dialogue to deconflict and mitigate risk," Chong said, adding that there was likely to be some emphasis on mutual respect and reciprocity.

Relations between the two world powers deteriorated rapidly last year but both sides have worked to improve communication and increase engagements in recent months, with top US officials making trips to China.

Last week, an Economic Working Group of officials from both countries held their first meeting in a further effort to manage tensions.

David Arase, resident professor of international politics with the Hopkins-Nanjing Centre for Chinese and American Studies, said a wide range of issues could be on the table when the leaders meet.

Among other things, he expected that they would call for the release of hostages and for humanitarian relief for Gaza citizens, agree to make efforts to reduce tensions in the Indo-Pacific region, and they were also likely to promote cooperation in "non-strategic areas" such as climate change.

These were topics that Wang raised with American officials last week as they exchanged views on the ongoing conflict in the Middle East and the war in Ukraine.

For the Xi-Biden meeting, Arase expected Washington to seek Beijing's help to pressure Russia, North Korea and Iran - countries that are challenging American interests. Beijing, meanwhile, could be expected to ask for a rollback of economic sanctions imposed on China by the US.

But their efforts, according to Arase, were likely to be met with "little success".

He said a Xi-Biden meeting may not achieve any major outcomes "but it could reopen lines of regular discussion and consultation that arrest the worrisome decline and growing hostility in bilateral ties".

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken (left) and Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi (right) during talks in Washington last week. Photo: AFP alt=US Secretary of State Antony Blinken (left) and Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi (right) during talks in Washington last week. Photo: AFP>

Alfred Wu, associate professor at the National University of Singapore's Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy, said the topics Xi and Biden would discuss were contingent on the time allocated for the summit.

If the leaders have more time, Wu expected a more elaborate discussion on issues plaguing bilateral ties. If not, they could be expected to chart a "general direction to manage relations, open lines of communication, and to not make the situation worse", he said.

When Xi and Biden last met - on the sidelines of the Group of 20 summit in Indonesia last November - they spoke for three hours on topics ranging from Taiwan to North Korea.

Wu said "flash points" including the South China Sea and Taiwan could be touched on but neither side would have any expectation that these long-standing issues would be resolved.
"Particularly, for the South China Sea, China's position is very different from the US' and [that of other claimant states like] the Philippines," he said, calling it a "deadlock issue".

China claims almost the entire resource-rich waterway and its coastguard has in recent months been involved in several stand-offs with vessels from neighbouring countries such as the Philippines.

Washington has backed Manila and reiterated its commitment to protect the Philippines in the event of an armed attack in the South China Sea.

Wu suggested that the two leaders would view the summit as a channel to speak to each other while "trying to avoid the worst-case scenario, which is war".

The meeting would help both leaders domestically too, he said. For Biden, the summit would signal that he was capable of communicating with China. And for Xi, it would present China as "being treated as equals" with the US and a leader of the world.

While the summit could be beneficial for both sides, Wu noted that the two countries had "very different values" - such as their views on the Ukraine war and their visions for the global order - which could limit the success of the talks.

With the US election nearing and Republicans ready to seize on any sign of weakness, the Biden administration may have little room for flexibility even when it comes to shared global problems such as the Israel-Gaza conflict, according to Chong from the NUS.

Wang Huiyao, founder of Beijing-based think tank the Centre for China and Globalisation, said a Xi-Biden summit would be "very significant" - especially to China's neighbours.

Leaders in the region have long called for more stable US-China ties and have voiced growing concerns about having to take sides in the heightened superpower rivalry.

"A mere picture of [the two leaders] shaking hands will send a huge signal to the outside world," Wang said, calling the summit "long overdue".

Wang said he expected the meeting to work towards stopping the downward spiral of bilateral ties and improve people-to-people exchanges between the two nations.

"The meeting will produce a good result for other regions. It's meeting the expectations of the world," he said. "The world needs stability and [when] the leaders of the two largest economies meet, it will stabilise the world economy and generate good signals for the rest of the world."

Arase from the Hopkins-Nanjing Centre for Chinese and American Studies said a Xi-Biden meeting would convey a message to the world that the US and China were acting responsibly to peacefully manage their differences.

Southeast Asian countries - which have increasingly found themselves sandwiched between the US and China - would find that reassuring but they would remain on guard, he said.
"They know that Sino-US relations remain fraught, and that growing instability in Europe, the Middle East and Northeast Asia create ripple effects that have a destabilising effect in Southeast Asia," he said.

Chong said regional countries would view the meeting as a desire for stability on Beijing and Washington's part. But he said while some were hoping for a return to the engagement of the 1990s and 2000s, it would not be possible.

"Neither the US nor China have an interest to return to that situation even if they wish to prevent their competition from spiralling out of control," he said. "Southeast Asia will have to learn to live with a more contentious world where there is more major power friction."

This article originally appeared in the South China Morning Post (SCMP), the most authoritative voice reporting on China and Asia for more than a century. For more SCMP stories, please explore the SCMP app or visit the SCMP's Facebook and Twitter pages. Copyright © 2023 South China Morning Post Publishers Ltd. All rights reserved.

US-China ties: don't expect any breakthroughs when Xi and Biden meet, analysts say

Preparations are in full swing for a summit between Xi Jinping and Joe Biden this month, but analysts say they do not expect any breakthroughs given the long-standing issues looming over the talks. They say the much-anticipated meeting could, however, bode well for US-China ties and send a...

finance.yahoo.com

 

[Menthol]

USA is outcompeted by China.

That's why all these dramas happened.