The Weakness of Xi Jinping - How Hubris and Paranoia Threaten China’s Future

The Weakness of Xi Jinping

Hubris and paranoia threaten China’s future.

www.foreignaffairs.com

@Paul2
What do you think will happen in the next months, Xi will take all?

 

[FuturePAF]

He should leave, for whatever reason the two term limit shouldn't be broken, it's not a good example for future leaders.

The limit was there to nurture institutional development. Perhaps we will see the party elevate a new leader in October considering the deadlock of getting the country out of the pandemic.

 

[S10]

Given the past two presidents China has had, they may not find someone better then Xi. The most like replacements are unknown nobodies who lack the popularity to rally the cpc and nation.


No, the poor economy is mainly due to property bubble that grew during Jiang and Hu. And there's more important issues then economy for China. Also, what political suppression are you talking about? Those free HK idiots?

If CPC could not come up with any leader other than a few old men, that means it butchered succession planning and failed to develop proper candidates. That just adds to the list of incompetence. China needs quiet administrator and technocrats, not celebrity populists.

Xi had 9 years to reform the real estate market and he didn't do so. You sound like his fanboy trying to make excuses for his failures. Don't tell me you didn't notice the increased party slogans, cult of personality and censorship being dialed up in the past 5 years. Xi is turning China into North Korea. Putting your head in the sand doesn't make problems go away.

There were a lot of people like you singing praises for Brezhnev during his reign in USSR too, and he dug the grave for Soviet Union. Xi is doing the same to China.

 

[casual]

If CPC could not come up with any leader other than a few old men, that means it butchered succession planning and failed to develop proper candidates. That just adds to the list of incompetence. China needs quiet administrator and technocrats, not celebrity populists.

Xi had 9 years to reform the real estate market and he didn't do so. You sound like his fanboy trying to make excuses for his failures. Don't tell me you didn't notice the increased party slogans, cult of personality and censorship being dialed up in the past 5 years. Xi is turning China into North Korea. Putting your head in the sand doesn't make problems go away.

There were a lot of people like you singing praises for Brezhnev during his reign in USSR too, and he dug the grave for Soviet Union. Xi is doing the same to China.

Yes, the CCP has failed in the development of proper candidates. This is why Xi needs to stay on for another 5 years.

Be real, any reform the real estate market would have resulted in a crash. There was too much debt piled into it by the time Xi came into power. I honestly think Xi handled it pretty well given that China isn't in recession. Also, economy is NOT the most important issue facing China in the next 5 years.

Increase in party slogans, cult of personality and censorship is in response to western efforts to split public opinion in China and cause internal conflicts. I honestly don't see it as a problem. China's best defense in this regard is to amp up the Nationalism. In my opinion, Xi is planning to take back Taiwan and the increased nationalism is also to support this goal.

Xi is not Brezhnev and China is not North Korea. If you want to make that argument, at least support your argument on how they are similar.

 

[sutton999]

I am fine with Xi 3rd term. Previously core leader are not really retired after 2nd term. At the end of their terms, Deng still holds real power, Jiang still tops military bureau, Hu wasn't a core leader.

 

[redtom]

Zhao is the Gorbachev of China. He is more keen of the western democracy which very likely he will side with students and do nothing to stop the collapse of CPC and China. Deng absolutely make the decision using his seniority to overthrew Zhao.


Unlikely. Jiang despite being corrupted, will never allow US to interfere in CPC and color revolution. Many great plans like HSR, aircraft carrier and J-20, Y-20 projects are approved by Jiang.

Jiang is still a patriotic Chinese.

You are right, Zhao has a problem. But Deng, as a party member, can rely on the party's rules to remove Zhao, instead of using force to house Zhao first, and then make up for it according to the rules. This is a question of two natures.

Moreover, Zhao's problems were also caused by Deng. If Deng hadn't violated the principles of democracy within the party and arrested leftists on a large scale, Zhao would not have been able to rise to power. Deng has done too many very bad things in order to stabilize his power. His ability is indeed much worse than Mao's.

 

[Leishangthem]

If CPC could not come up with any leader other than a few old men, that means it butchered succession planning and failed to develop proper candidates. That just adds to the list of incompetence. China needs quiet administrator and technocrats, not celebrity populists.

Xi had 9 years to reform the real estate market and he didn't do so. You sound like his fanboy trying to make excuses for his failures. Don't tell me you didn't notice the increased party slogans, cult of personality and censorship being dialed up in the past 5 years. Xi is turning China into North Korea. Putting your head in the sand doesn't make problems go away.

There were a lot of people like you singing praises for Brezhnev during his reign in USSR too, and he dug the grave for Soviet Union. Xi is doing the same to China.

Do people think US like system can produce good candidate? US two candidate battle is a choice between cancer and aids ,both propped by oligarch to do their bidding ,and no accountability will be held under the cloak of democracy,they will simply change the gov with a new capitalist puppet.
Whatever leader China will get,wouldn't be worse than a biden or a truss. China can simply extend xi rule if they need time to cultivate another capable leader of high calibre.

 

[leviathan]

I'm very confused here. Do you believe that there is nobody in CPC who can replace Xi Jinping when he retire from his office? If it true like that, then China is doomed already. Joe Biden doesn't even need to do anything to destroy China. Because CPC is already broken from inside. If nobody can replace Xi, then you believe that CPC is filled with incompetent people. If it is true like that, then China is already begin to fail.

I think every country in this world need a power succession periodically. The purpose is to refresh the eagerness and spirit of the leadership. Xi maybe a good leader, but when he grow old, he will lose flexibility and finesse. 2 important traits that important for any leader in this world. To avoid stagnation because of inflexibility in leadership, a country need to refresh their talent. Younger leaders should replace the older one. With that, the top leadership will always full of new innovation and idea, also flexibility and finesse.

you cant tell Trump and Biden is destorying USA? when China have 10 carrier group and 30 trillion economy, a pig can be the presentdent to run the country and China will still be fine.

 

[leviathan]

Don't be an idiot. The economy doing poorly is a fact, not some Western narrative. Youth unemployment is a fact, not a Western narrative. Zero COVID killing businesses in China is a fact, not a Western narrative. Political suppression and censorship is a feature of CPC, not a Western narrative. Xi building a cult of personality is a fact, not some Western narrative. The general public will soon be tired of putting up with Xi's shit. The question is whether Xi goes or he takes the country with it, like Brezhnev did with USSR.

When you only argument is to avoid facts and deflects to "this is what the west wants", you have no substance to offer to China. The problems China is facing is very much real. If you can't fix the problem, fix the person reporting the problem right?

Doing poorly? All you mentioned has less affect than the 9% inflation. Do you know the mortgage rate right now? millions of people will loss their property next year.

 

[Paul2]

The Weakness of Xi Jinping

Hubris and paranoia threaten China’s future.

www.foreignaffairs.com

@Paul2
What do you think will happen in the next months, Xi will take all?

Yes, he will, his is on a finishing lap. Besides a status quo staying on Shanghai, and the South, there been no setbacks for him.

Jiang cad die any day now, unless he lives past 100.

South will be next if Shanghai crumbles

 

[Aspen]

I don't think a 3rd term for Xi is good for China. I think China has made incredible advances in the past decade not because of him but in spite of him. China is a country of over 1 billion people, which I think speaks more for the fact that a country of that population size and economic power will be powerful and innovative no matter what. If Xi ruled a country the size of Germany the way he runs China now, it would probably have an economy more akin to Poland which is basically to say that nobody really knows how Xi is doing because there is nothing to compare China to besides the US and India, neither of which is a good benchmark. But I agree that it is not hyperbole to say things are going in the direction of North Korea. I really tried to give Xi benefit of the doubt but his covid policy has pretty much convinced me that China is going towards NK levels of isolation from the world. You cannot really isolate a nation of 1 billion people from the world but you can make their lives so different from everyone else that they may chose not to interact with you except the bare minimum. If he has any plans for Taiwan, that will accelerate it and probably destroy whatever goodwill China has a manufacturer of global goods. As powerful as China is today, 1 leader is all it takes to destroy everything and it has happened before. As things are right now, Xi is not paying attention to the economy, inflation or real estate and I have to wonder what on earth he is thinking. Even Putin made several big moves to correct Russia's economic situation, what has Xi done? China feels almost like it is moving in slow motion. Covid lockdowns are basically unchanged for 2 years, does anyone think he might be in a brain dead style state or some kind of condition where he is slowly losing attachment from reality?

 

[Communism]

Every person critical of Xi's handling of the economics during his 2 terms has no clue about political economy or economics in general.


The entire reason why every western voice is calling for Xi to go is due to Xi finally doing what was impossible to do, which is to defuse the ponzi urban residential real estate bubble which was the west's last shining hope of destroying china.


If you are against Xi's economic policies, then you need to relearn economics, since your knowledge of the subject is dogshit.


Every single fake economy is falling one by one right now due to the Fed's tightening policies, and the only country that didn't need to raise rates was china.


This was due to Xi making sure that china's "GDP" was getting more "real" growth instead of "fake" growth.


If he didn't do that, china would be one of the countries going into hyperinflation right now.

 

[MH.Yang]

Every person critical of Xi's handling of the economics during his 2 terms has no clue about political economy or economics in general.


The entire reason why every western voice is calling for Xi to go is due to Xi finally doing what was impossible to do, which is to defuse the ponzi urban residential real estate bubble which was the west's last shining hope of destroying china.


If you are against Xi's economic policies, then you need to relearn economics, since your knowledge of the subject is dogshit.

Yes.

In fact, Jiang Zemin's greatest merit is that he banned the army from doing business.

Hu Jintao's greatest achievement is that China's economy has increased by 580% in 10 years.

Xi's greatest achievement is to make the housing market soft landing.

Each of them is outstanding, and they have made historic contributions to this country. But this is not the reason to break the rules.

 

[JohnyD]

Dont know about ppl of china but if you ask any Indian or may be an amercan they will say, Xi must go...which means he is not seen as favorable leader by rival countries and there he gets the credit. I personally think, he will follow the Putin way and hold on the top position

 

[Paul2]

As a foreigner in China for nearly a decade in 2000s, the levels of corruption in Shenzhen that I personally witnessed made me wonder if it keep on going further, would PRC follows the fate of late Qing dynasty's collapse in 1900s?

Then the anti-corruption actions changed my thoughts. And this include the action against the corrupted high level generals in PLA, including former chief of general staff of PLA.

A mediocre leader should be given a maximum of 2 terms, a good leader should be given a chance for the third term. This is not an isolated case. It happens everywhere in the World.

Angela Dorothea Merkel served as the chancellor of Germany from 2005 to 2021, that is more than 3 terms.

Power does lead to corruption, there has to be a safeguard on this. The current "Xi's Thought" does points to Xi's ambitions. However thus far, I believe the Pro is still more than Con, especially China's current geopolitical tension vs US lead countries and Taiwan. You don't change your top leader during crisis or near-crisis time, if he proved to be capable.

3 terms or "2 terms plus" should be the maximum.

Is Shenzhen looked "high" to you, you clearly haven't been to Beijing. Even in the heydays of the universiade, Shenzhen was like ultra-clean compared to the rest of China.

 

[Chat SAMOSA]

Xi was bumbling along just fine with all his yesmen until his disastrous mishandling of the Wuhan virus leakage ! He has come unhinged since then. That untimely visit to Wuhan, the series of disastrous and futile attempts to wiggle out, the amateurish brief collusion with the corrupt WHO crowd, the idiotic stand of not buying working vaccines, the childish lock downs . .. his legacy is a China that could have been.

If CCP had any brains they'll throw him out gracefully