The Quetta Experience: Attitudes and Values within Pakistan's Army By David O. Smith

[suresh1773]

and India will be supa powa by 2020 I totally believe you

My idea of India is different. It has nothing to do with this supa power by 2020 which I had not debated or discussed . Well I would like India to be a self sufficient Indipendent country with better social security, better education facilities, more funds for sports, infrastructure, safe drinking water, etc that's all.

 

[Verve]

So what was Pakistan's exposed testicles? Well Lahore of course. Barely 10 miles from Indian border and flat country inbetween. As we know this is exactly what happened. And what defensive plan did Pakistan have for this - given that it was 99% certain India would retaliate? Non at all.

Lahore will fall in the next big war with India, when the wave of Indian forces cross the border - tactical nukes will be no go to the east of Ravi (that's Lahore city). River Ravi crossing will be the battleground, and beyond.

 

[Indus Pakistan]

My idea of India is different. It has nothing to do with this supa power by 2020 which I had not debated or discussed . Well I would like India to be a self sufficient Indipendent country with better social security, better education facilities, more funds for sports, infrastructure, safe drinking water, etc that's all.

For once a sensible Indian. I thoughts about Pakistan match yours and I am really optimistic that PM Imran Khan with his emphasis on the poor will set Pakistan on the path to social/economic security and justice.

This is my Pakistan. A simple truck driver turned singer for the working class .... Ataullah Khan Esa Khelvi !

 

[VCheng]

I disagree with this, the widening conventional gap between India and Pakistan will play an active part in preventing even smaller incursions along the border let alone full scaled war.
Nuclear weapons will not even be considered if there is no conventional war going on.
So India Pakistan scenario has moved beyond WW2 style large scale conventional warfare.

The rationale is that the greater the disparity in conventional forces, the greater the incentive to nuclearize a conflict by the weaker side. Given this, war by other means such as extra-state actors and economic means will become more attractive to both sides.

 

[Jugger]

The rationale is that the greater the disparity in conventional forces, the greater the incentive to nuclearize a conflict by the weaker side. Given this, war by other means such as extra-state actors and economic means will become more attractive to both sides.

But what I think is that the greater the conventional gap the less likely the other side will even indulge in war. You see Pakistan has been the aggressor in majority of the conflicts.
This disparity has maintained peace between India and Pakistan for more than 20 years after Kargil war.

 

[VCheng]

But what I think is that the greater the conventional gap the less likely the other side will even indulge in war. You see Pakistan has been the aggressor in majority of the conflicts.
This disparity has maintained peace between India and Pakistan for more than 20 years after Kargil war.

Nuclear rivals are far more apt to wage war by other means, mainly economic. The need for direct military aggression may not be as dire as many would suggest.

 

[Jugger]

Nuclear rivals are far more apt to wage war by other means, mainly economic. The need for direct military aggression may not be as dire as many would suggest.

But would an economic collapse trigger nuclear attacks on you neighbor without an instance of war..?
Economic collapse can be due to the incompetence of leadership and nothing to do with enemy actions.

 

[VCheng]

But would an economic collapse trigger nuclear attacks on you neighbor without an instance of war..?
Economic collapse can be due to the incompetence of leadership and nothing to do with enemy actions.

Collapse is too dramatic a word Sir. Strangulation and slow onset of a comatose state may work far better. Rival states can always encourage incompetence and corruption in their rivals.

 

[Jugger]

Collapse is too dramatic a word Sir. Strangulation and slow onset of a comatose state may work far better. Rival states can always encourage incompetence and corruption in their rivals.

There is a subtle difference in our views, you are thinking in the China - USA context whereas I am think in the indo- pak context. Both situations are remarkably different even if the enemity is common.
China - USA Economic showdown that is happening now is quite dangerous as China’s biggest export market is the United States. Whereas India and Pakistan does not have any meaningful trade worth mentioning.

 

[VCheng]

There is a subtle difference in our views, you are thinking in the China - USA context whereas I am think in the indo- pak context. Both situations are remarkably different even if the enemity is common.
China - USA Economic showdown that is happening now is quite dangerous as China’s biggest export market is the United States. Whereas India and Pakistan does not have any meaningful trade worth mentioning.

The lack of any meaningful trade between the South Asian nuclear powers only makes the use of non-state actors more attractive to both sides, as we can see in Kashmir and Afghanistan. The intent is probably to continue to impose chronic economic bleeding than to seek any real or drastic change.

Between the larger powers, I think it is more showmanship than a real economic showdown, at least for the foreseeable future.