The Political Impact of Chinese President's Proposed Visit

[SarthakGanguly]

If IK manages to comes to power by toppling the government thru this agitation, How long will it take PMLN to start another agitation with in 3 months of his inauguration???? When i look from outside i see this as a wrong precedent.....

Yes, like I said - the dilemma faced by Macbeth. A classical catch 22 situation is tricky. Worst of all - the super rich people like Sharif/Imran/Qadri won't suffer much. The economy will suffer and it's people like us(rather our counterparts in Pakistan) who will bear the brunt. Industries will escape, jobs will be cut, inflation will increase, crime will see a spurt, frustration and terrorism will gain greater support etc etc - the usual things that fill a power vacuum.

Even in the worst case - what will Sharif do? He will run away to Saudi Arabia or somewhere else in exile. The people who will be stuck in Pakistan will be the ones to suffer the consequences.

 

[saiyan0321]

The thing is without any form of backing it was always on cards. The end of the dharna and imrans back to the parliament as he walks away from islamabad was the eventual end ( unless he had support which it seems he does no). The game was not returning. It was never returning. The entire game was around how many points can you get across during negotiations. That was the game and imran completely failed to see it. He showed massive political immaturity. I like imran. I believe if he is in power then we can positive results however i also believe he has much and much to learn.

Imran wasted 19 days ( a heck of a time) talking about resignation when his focus should have been electoral reforms.

I have maintained that if imran nothing else got these three things done in his proposed netotiation then it would have been a victory.

1. Third party fair audit of 2013 elections. Third party can be anybody be it the army or a foreign inspectors.
2. Electoral reforms which must be passed. Harsh and strong reforms which can take place in 3 years time without a problem. This was perhaps his most important demand that he ignored.
3. Incentives for KPK. Better trade deals or greater budgets. Getting more money from the PM is not the problem.

There was a time at the start when NS would have literally given him all these three things to remove him from there and timing is the most crucial thing when it comes to politics. Imran missed that bus.

However there is another bus and he must make sure he sits on it otherwise its game over. The bus is that MQM iks getting ready to strike against the govt as well and with the chinese prez visit he must make sure that he gets his points signed as NS will be under pressure to solve this issue quickly.

 

[Chak Bamu]

I posted that post thinking the other thread where you mentioned me (10 wrong things by IK) i posted here assuming it to be that thread. Can you move this post to that thread?

Let us leave it here and not go on with OT. You may copy and paste your reply in that thread.

 

[nair]

Yes, like I said - the dilemma faced by Macbeth. A classical catch 22 situation is tricky. Worst of all - the super rich people like Sharif/Imran/Qadri won't suffer much. The economy will suffer and it's people like us(rather our counterparts in Pakistan) who will bear the brunt. Industries will escape, jobs will be cut, inflation will increase, crime will see a spurt, frustration and terrorism will gain greater support etc etc - the usual things that fill a power vacuum.

Even in the worst case - what will Sharif do? He will run away to Saudi Arabia or somewhere else in exile. The people who will be stuck in Pakistan will be the ones to suffer the consequences.

Spot on!!!!! Even if they manage to go out these guys must have enough property and wealth outside their country and they will keep enjoying their life..... But the poor men in the street are going to be the one who suffers...

 

[FaujHistorian]

This perhaps was an SOS call from NS to China. A master stroke dare I say.

What IK and TuQ did (and their retired generals aka handlers) not realize that Chinese trust NS much much more compared to any other leader in PaK.

in the eyes of Chinese investors NS and SS have established themselves as honest leaders, who can cut through the red tape so common in the subcontinent baboo culture.

This does not go unnoticed by the many among serving generals in Pak army.

So the impact so far I see is positive and perhaps thanks to China, this crisis in Islu will be resolved soon.

However this is not a lose lose game for IK.

He too can use KPK as a base (though much smaller compared to Punjab), where Chinese investments are protected and Chinese make gazillians of dollars from Pakistani projects (just like they do in pretty much every other country in the world).

 

[Viper0011.]

The turmoil is delayed, not over. They will be back, its only a matter of time. Like SKS advised NS to go back to the drawing board once this is over, I think that the hidden powers will also go back to the drawing board and they'll be back whenever government falters in future.

Its true that people who are retired and have plenty of time to keep coming with more drama will still have the time to do so, it may not be true that such people can derail the government anymore. Expect strict legislation in the next few days that would make it impossible for anyone with any reason to try to topple the government. In that sense, government will seek a unanimous vote to give severe response immediately to a potential threat like such "Peaceful March" when it got to Islamabad. Similarly, now that IK and Mullah have lost big times and the people have rejected their failed politics, people will NOW be more approving of a severe action taken by the government to dismantle any of these militias trying to take over the country and such action will have constitutional backing that (1) you come under treason as soon as you forcefully ask the premier to resign instead of going to the parliament (2) Hate speech, threats, and then actions to destroy State property, attacking Police and all is and will be a crime requiring immediate brute force. And anyone involved with this may have to face life in jail or death penalty as that's destroying the constitution and an entire country.

Democratic protest if everyone's right. But violence and terrorism is NOT. Attacking Parliament and other institutes and lie about everything where there is 5 Trillion worth of damage and PRICELESS human lives gone and hundreds injured.....this is violence and terrorism. Not democratic "peaceful" protest. There is a very thick, shinny line between Peaceful Protests and Violence.

The Chinese and the Americans both want the democratic system to stay. Both have significant projects being undertaken to help the people of Pakistan. Pakistan, unlike the sentiment about the US, can't afford to mess her relationships up with the Chinese. So expect this to wrap up in about 72 hours.
IK and Mullah have already been told to pack up or "movers" will come to "move" them. So this show should be over soon. At the least, the constitutional areas / the Red Zone will be emptied out within the next 48 hours or so. The Chinese premier is about to sign a LOT of projects which are all going to change the Pakistan as you knew it today. And they have put their trust in NS's policies. Nothing anyone can do. This is what was needed to take Pakistan ahead.

 

[FaujHistorian]

.....

However there is another bus and he must make sure he sits on it otherwise its game over. The bus is that MQM iks getting ready to strike against the govt as well and with the chinese prez visit he must make sure that he gets his points signed as NS will be under pressure to solve this issue quickly.

MQM miscalculated.

So no bus there.

in fact we should tell AH, "bus ker bhai"

 

[Chak Bamu]

@saiyan0321 , MQM thing is just a bluff and bluster. There are not going to do anything. They are in opposition and they want to look like they are playing their part as opposition. Its just for talking points - nothing else. While Chinese president visits Pakistan, we can not make an omelette of our politics. Army will not allow it.

'They' will use MQM in some other way, later. 'They' are keeping the two trump cards with them. I hope you understand what I mean.

MQM will not join any dharna when it is in process of being wound up.

 

[nair]

This perhaps was an SOS call from NS to China. A master stroke dare I say.

This will be first time i am disagreeing with you .... It cannot be called a master stroke if you are not a PMLN supporter.... This was always the problem you faced in pakistan, Ie : foreign interference..... Why would china help him to be in power..... Rather he should have done something to gain the support with in the country rather than going out..... (last time it was KSA)

 

[Chak Bamu]

This perhaps was an SOS call from NS to China. A master stroke dare I say.

What IK and TuQ did (and their retired generals aka handlers) not realize that Chinese trust NS much much more compared to any other leader in PaK.

in the eyes of Chinese investors NS and SS have established themselves as honest leaders, who can cut through the red tape so common in the subcontinent baboo culture.

This does not go unnoticed by the many among serving generals in Pak army.

So the impact so far I see is positive and perhaps thanks to China, this crisis in Islu will be resolved soon.

However this is not a lose lose game for IK.

He too can use KPK as a base (though much smaller compared to Punjab), where Chinese investments are protected and Chinese make gazillians of dollars from Pakistani projects (just like they do in pretty much every other country in the world).

Good analysis. I agree.

You might want to read this, in case you have not done so already:
PTI Dharna Politics and Possible Scenarios

 

[RAMPAGE]

If IK manages to comes to power by toppling the government thru this agitation,

Team IK had 6 balls left to score 36 and and kinda win the match but the almighty Kaptaan chose to tear apart the very stadium.

Now he has zero chance of winning the match.

 

[Chak Bamu]

This will be first time i am disagreeing with you .... It cannot be called a master stroke if you are not a PMLN supporter.... This was always the problem you faced in pakistan, Ie : foreign interference..... Why would china help him to be in power..... Rather he should have done something to gain the support with in the country rather than going out..... (last time it was KSA)

In case you noticed, there is no popular support for the show of Anarchy. All the polls have consistently shown that the general public does not support this show of Anarchy.

PML-N won the elections. That could not be possible without solid support. It is still there. Most PML-N might have done is to ask the Chinese to pass a message to PA. The upcoming visit by Chineses President is just such a message. Otherwise, they might have cancelled the visit.

It is important to note that a few days ago, when SS returned from China, he refused to resign. He must have had his reasons. So, it is friends helping friends, and not interference as such.

 

[FaujHistorian]

This will be first time i am disagreeing with you .... It cannot be called a master stroke if you are not a PMLN supporter.... This was always the problem you faced in pakistan, Ie : foreign interference..... Why would china help him to be in power..... Rather he should have done something to gain the support with in the country rather than going out..... (last time it was KSA)

no Bhai no.

It is not "interference". More like showing a trump card.

IK talked about "Umpire ki ungli".

NS showed the umpire that he can get better deals internationally.

If you ever look inside, most of the politics is local, and internal. No matter how much hell is raised in the name of "interference".,

Pakistan may be small compared to India

But still with close to 200 million population, is too big to manipulate. even by super power like USA.

Hope one day you can visit Islu and see it for yourself.

 

[Viper0011.]

What IK and TuQ did (and their retired generals aka handlers) not realize that Chinese trust NS much much more compared to any other leader in PaK.
in the eyes of Chinese investors NS and SS have established themselves as honest leaders, who can cut through the red tape

1) The entire world sees NS and his team as honest or better than any other politician at this time in Pakistan. Irrespective of their past, there is YET ONE real proof of corruption to come out. And trust me, if someone had the proofs, it'll be out to the court MANY, MANY times over. Instead of all talk.
The real thing is, this time, they are trying to make a difference when it comes to running the country and making economic progress, that will then change or impact the ordinary Pakistani's lives in a positive way. You can't deny that, just take a look at the work already done in 14 months.

2) They also have followed strict international guidelines to flow the money downwards and its auditing through international institutes. So there isn't corruption anymore at the highest level. There is corruption on the street level but that is with humans and everywhere it'll be the case to include 10=15% of the waste. I am no Pro- NS. I am pro-Pakistan. The good work should always be recognized. I don't agree with their ruling style that they rarely come to the Parliament but then if you realistically take a look at the problems that the country is facing, you wonder how long it would take to plan, deal with others to get investments for 70 years of stopped human progress like education, electric infrastructure, water, flood management, crippled stock market and exports, etc, etc.

I think if these guys finish their term, you'll ACTUALLY see a much more modern, electric load-shedding free (or power outages down to a couple of hours) and much more economically stable Pakistan than what it was when they took over. The New Pakistan is already in the making through work that's bringing investments and projects. Not like a punch line being used by a few thousands on the streets who brought destruction to the country than really helping.

 

[FaujHistorian]

Good analysis. I agree.

You might want to read this, in case you have not done so already:
PTI Dharna Politics and Possible Scenarios

Wow Chak

you should be given gold medal for writing these scenarios.

No I had need seen that post.

Thanks for sharing.