Look at the whole picture
I just spent 30 minutes explaining China's economy. I've copied my post into this thread to help others better understand China's economy.
I am indeed a Taiwanese-American of Chinese ethnicity. I thought everyone knew that.
Anyway, your points about China may be true. However, you neglected to mention something very important: China's strengths. You cannot look at a minor fault and claim China's economy is falling apart. You must look at the whole picture. After I demolish your arguments, I will itemize China's formidable strengths.
1. I have no idea what you are talking about regarding China's export sector.
China's exports are higher than ever. What's wrong with a 13.8% export growth in November (see below) when you are already the world's largest exporter?
Since China's export base is the world's largest, 13.8% additional growth beyond that base will yield a huge absolute number. China's exports are somewhere around $1.5 trillion (see Table 4:
https://www.uschina.org/statistics/tradetable.html). 13.8% of $1.5 trillion will yield an annual growth of $207 billion. Seems like a healthy economy to me.
China export and import growth slows, surplus narrows | Reuters
"China export and import growth slows, surplus narrows
By Langi Chiang and Nick Edwards
BEIJING | Fri Dec 9, 2011 11:10pm EST
(Reuters) - Growth in Chinese exports and imports slowed in November, further evidence of the faltering demand abroad and at home that is pushing Beijing towards a more explicit pro-growth policy.
Customs data on Saturday showed exports expanded 13.8 percent year on year in November, the lowest in nine months, but it was the most sluggish performance since November 2009 when the traditionally volatile month of February is stripped out.
...
The surplus turned out to be $14.5 billion, narrowing from October's $17.0 billion and the same level as in September."
2. Let's pretend that China is a company. When a company is making an average of $15 billion in profits every single month (see blue highlight above), that is a healthy company. Therefore, it is obvious that the Chinese economy is very healthy.
3. The Hang Seng is probably performing poorly because of the economic problems in the U.S. and Europe, which affects Chinese exporters. Also, the Chinese government popped the real estate bubble early; which is good for China's economy, but not for stock market investors.
In other words, I fail to see why you think the Hang Seng affects China's real economy of manufacturers. The stock market goes up and it comes down. Who cares? I only care about China's economic fundamentals (e.g. export growth, trade surplus, etc.).
4. China Railways wants more money. What's the problem? You can't build railroads for free. Massive infrastructure projects (like dams, railroads, or airports) require a huge upfront cost. China Railways is asking for more money because China is building a nationwide high-speed rail network that is supposed to be completed by 2020.
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Now, let's look at China's strengths.
1. China has $3.2 trillion in foreign exchange reserves. In other words, China has plenty of money to pay its bills for the next few decades. The story gets even better. China has invested its $3.2 trillion and it earns interest or invested returns.
2. China has been consistently profitable for the past decade (and longer). China earns roughly $200 billion in its annual current account balance (e.g. total trade in goods and services). In other words, $200 billion dollars in net profits is being injected into the Chinese economy every year. This is part of the reason that China's economy has boomed at 10% for thirty years.
The trade surpluses are still happening every month. The Chinese economic party will continue unabated. It might slow a bit to 8%, but that's because China's economy is now a monster $7 trillion. It's hard to grow at 10% when your economy is that large.
3. China's economy continues to increase in productivity. Alternatively, you can say that China's economy keeps becoming more efficient. How does China do that? Well, it's actually pretty simple. China produces and consumes hundreds of thousands of new CNC (Computer Numerically Controlled) machine tools each year. Of course Chinese factories become more productive with an annual massive influx of advanced CNC machine tools.
4. When China builds railways, it frees up the old rail network for exclusive use to ship freight. The freight rail network no longer encounters bottlenecks and it requires a lot less fuel to ship by rail than by trucks. Once again, China's economy becomes more efficient.
5. China has invested a lot of money into research and development. Improvement in Chinese technology has led to massive increases in production. For example, Chinese super-rice hybrid technology has led to a quadruple or quintuple increase in rice production (for the same hectare) in the last four decades. China's economy keeps booming because of technological advancement.
I could keep going on and on about the returns on China's investment in education, trade, licensing, joint ventures, shift into production of higher-value products (e.g. ARJ-21 regional jet planes, upcoming COMAC C919 mid-size jetliners, and building satellites for foreign customers), building more-efficient coal plants with 41% efficiency and shutting down less-efficient old ones with 25% efficiency, etc.
I've already spent 30 minutes answering his post and I would rather not spend another hour beating the issue to death. China probably has the strongest economy in the world right now. It is just silly to claim that China is facing serious economic problems.
The Chinese currency keeps appreciating relentlessly. That should tell you China's economy is growing stronger, not weaker.
China's Yuan has appreciated over 30% during the last six years from 8.27 yuans to 6.31 yuans per U.S. dollar (see
CNY, Chinese Yuan Exchange Rates Table - x-rates).