The increasing responsibility of Pakistan Navy and is it ready?

[S.Y.A]

The submarines will need help from planes and in order to prevent a blockade this will be needed to deal with the IN surface vessels. Remember Poseidon need to be countered to protect subs

As he said: he is talking about offense i.e tying up IN ships in Indian waters or at least far from Pakistani waters (area denial maybe), not defense (that is what you are talking about).

Otoh, the navy can think out of the box and destroy P-8s on the ground (like the Mehran Airbase attack), and if all goes well, the Indians (what with their history and all) may even crash it themselves

 

[Signalian]

Thanks for the detailed answer and it does highlight a need of more aircraft for coastal and waters defence.

I have been thinking in terms of strike. There was a guy here, Naif al Hilali (credit goes to him), he calculated combat radius for different JF-17 mission profiles.

If you are looking for aircraft to reach out to Mumbai from say karachi which is somewhere around 900 km aerial distance, even JF-17 can do that for a strike mission on installations with profile:

Internal Fuel + Two 1,100 Liter Drop Tanks + Targeting Pod + Two 1,100 pound Precision Guided Bombs + Two PL-5EII
Roughly 1050 km mission radius. I am guessing F-16 Block-15 MLU range could be more. JF-17 Block III range (in terms of internal fuel capacity) is expected to be more

As for double engine aircrafts; will two engines consume fuel quickly than a single engine, shortening range ? Or getting quickly at super cruise altitude could save fuel.

For an Anti-Shipping Mission:

Internal Fuel + 800 Liter Drop Tank + Two CM-400AKG Anti-Shipping Missiles + Two SD-10A + Two PL-5EII
Around 450 km mission radius.

Internal Fuel + Two 800 Liter Drop Tanks + One C-802AK Anti-Shipping Missile + Two SD-10A + Two PL-5EII
Around 690 km mission radius.

Internal Fuel + Two 800 Liter Drop Tanks + Two C-802AK Anti-Shipping Missile + Two SD-10A + Two PL-5EII
Around 465 km mission radius.

So for Range of CM-400AKG missile, around 200 - 250 km ? or 300 km? Lets say JF-17 fires at range of 200 km (i'm not sure if its radar dependent and then radar range would allow), its still a decent distance to keep IN ships away from Pakistan Ports.

Will PN subs keep IN ships at a distance greater than what JF-17 can project ? most probably yes.

The submarines will need help from planes and in order to prevent a blockade this will be needed to deal with the IN surface vessels. Remember Poseidon need to be countered to protect subs

how far can JF-17's reach to protect PN subs

Long-Range Interception (/Air Superiority/Fighter Escort):
JF-17 Block I/II
Internal Fuel + 800 Liter Centerline Drop Tank + Two 1,100 Liter Drop Tanks + Two SD-10A + Two PL-5EII
Mission Radius is 1150 Km. (even 1400 km Range is reported in CAC assessment)

How far and how long can JF-17 remain stationed on CAP without refuel.

Combat Air Patrol [CAP] 350-380 km from base
JF-17 Block I/II
Internal Fuel + 800 Liter Centerline Drop Tank + Two 1,100 Liter Drop Tanks + Two SD-10A + Two PL-5EII
1 Hour 50 Minutes without refuel.

 

[Signalian]

Remember Poseidon need to be countered to protect subs

Lets talk about P-8 vs PN subs.

Going with P-8 first; to start with it has an electro-optical/infrared turret on the bottom of the plane which offers a shorter-range search option and can carry up to seven sensors, including an image intensifier, a laser rangefinder, and infrared, which can detect heat from subs or from fires. The Poseidon’s ALQ-240 Electronic Support Measure acts as an electromagnetic sensor and can track radar emitters. Its Advanced Airborne Sensor can do 360-degree scans on land and water. Other electronic surveillance measures allow it to passively monitor a wide area without detection. The original P-8A design did not include the Magnetic Anomaly Detector that the P-3 carried to detect the metal in sub’s hulls but the P-8A can deploy sonar buoys to track subs. It also carries an acoustic sensor and a hydrocarbon sensor designed to pick up fuel vapour from subs. The P-8A carries its own armaments, including Harpoon antiship missiles, depth charges, MK-54 torpedoes, and naval mines. It can also deploy defensive countermeasures, including a laser and metallic chaff to confuse incoming missiles.

So what can the submarine do and what can actually happen during this cat and mouse game;

There are environmental issues (sea-state, weather, daytime or nighttime, deep blue water ocean or coastal) that can affect the ability to tracks submarines. Then there are other issues like if P-8 aircraft is working alone or is it part of a team of sub hunting assets such as naval surface vessels and helicopters. This is where the PN sub excels as it engages most of IN vessels and aircraft in hunting it rather than allowing them to go towards PN waters, since P-8 alone with an old detection report or unknown contact report then finds it significantly harder to just guess where the submarine might be and then try to find it. PN sub can then, if detected while working along in a group with other PN subs, change direction act as bait and lead IN resources towards it while other PN subs carry on with their mission. This could also prompt IN to send more sub hunting assets in the area considering the PN sub is not working alone. Since subs are simply not easy to detect from the air, especially if they are operating at depth and/or at low speed, which is why IN surface vessels (ASW-equipped destroyers, frigates, or other sonar-equipped ships) or even IN submarines will be utilized. Sending in IN sub could be a good choice as it is itself deep-diving, difficult to detect, and quiet being a major factor in the operation of passive sonar. This would require more coordination between In assets though as sonar capability of sonobuoys cannot differentiate if the detected sub is IN or PN's.
Tracking the PN sub would depend on how current was the last reported known contact of the submarine. If P-8 had a very recent known contact and the conditions are favorable, it could track a submarine. P-8 could start dropping sonobouys in that area, collecting the data and then analyzing that data. A speed differential between a submarine and a fixed-winged aircraft could occur which means that the P-8 cannot just hover directly over the submarine it has to maneuver and make turns and keep circling to keep from flying out of range from the PN sub. Also if PN sub knows it is being tracked, it will actively try to break contact, move away, change depth making it harder for the aircraft to maintain track and locking on to the PN submarine. The chances of detection of PN sub become more after the submarine fires its weapon package at the intended target and then retreats towards safe waters.

So can the PN submarine survive without PAF air cover, yes and no.

 

[Humble Analyst]

Lets talk about P-8 vs PN subs.

Going with P-8 first; to start with it has an electro-optical/infrared turret on the bottom of the plane which offers a shorter-range search option and can carry up to seven sensors, including an image intensifier, a laser rangefinder, and infrared, which can detect heat from subs or from fires. The Poseidon’s ALQ-240 Electronic Support Measure acts as an electromagnetic sensor and can track radar emitters. Its Advanced Airborne Sensor can do 360-degree scans on land and water. Other electronic surveillance measures allow it to passively monitor a wide area without detection. The original P-8A design did not include the Magnetic Anomaly Detector that the P-3 carried to detect the metal in sub’s hulls but the P-8A can deploy sonar buoys to track subs. It also carries an acoustic sensor and a hydrocarbon sensor designed to pick up fuel vapour from subs. The P-8A carries its own armaments, including Harpoon antiship missiles, depth charges, MK-54 torpedoes, and naval mines. It can also deploy defensive countermeasures, including a laser and metallic chaff to confuse incoming missiles.

So what can the submarine do and what can actually happen during this cat and mouse game;

There are environmental issues (sea-state, weather, daytime or nighttime, deep blue water ocean or coastal) that can affect the ability to tracks submarines. Then there are other issues like if P-8 aircraft is working alone or is it part of a team of sub hunting assets such as naval surface vessels and helicopters. This is where the PN sub excels as it engages most of IN vessels and aircraft in hunting it rather than allowing them to go towards PN waters, since P-8 alone with an old detection report or unknown contact report then finds it significantly harder to just guess where the submarine might be and then try to find it. PN sub can then, if detected while working along in a group with other PN subs, change direction act as bait and lead IN resources towards it while other PN subs carry on with their mission. This could also prompt IN to send more sub hunting assets in the area considering the PN sub is not working alone. Since subs are simply not easy to detect from the air, especially if they are operating at depth and/or at low speed, which is why IN surface vessels (ASW-equipped destroyers, frigates, or other sonar-equipped ships) or even IN submarines will be utilized. Sending in IN sub could be a good choice as it is itself deep-diving, difficult to detect, and quiet being a major factor in the operation of passive sonar. This would require more coordination between In assets though as sonar capability of sonobuoys cannot differentiate if the detected sub is IN or PN's.
Tracking the PN sub would depend on how current was the last reported known contact of the submarine. If P-8 had a very recent known contact and the conditions are favorable, it could track a submarine. P-8 could start dropping sonobouys in that area, collecting the data and then analyzing that data. A speed differential between a submarine and a fixed-winged aircraft could occur which means that the P-8 cannot just hover directly over the submarine it has to maneuver and make turns and keep circling to keep from flying out of range from the PN sub. Also if PN sub knows it is being tracked, it will actively try to break contact, move away, change depth making it harder for the aircraft to maintain track and locking on to the PN submarine. The chances of detection of PN sub become more after the submarine fires its weapon package at the intended target and then retreats towards safe waters.

So can the PN submarine survive without PAF air cover, yes and no.

How to reduce the uncertainty of PN Submarine operational uncertainty?

 

[Signalian]

How to reduce the uncertainty of PN Submarine operational uncertainty?

There is no operational uncertainty for PN subs. Navy should use them as an offensive arm and thats what they are meant for.

 

[PAR 5]

With the induction of S-400 by India in 2020, all air assets will be compromised whether on land or at sea. PN must be given priority and the next battle ground must be set UNDER the sea. This means investing in immediate local development and manufacturing of SWAT's and smaller nuclear missile capable submarines. Unfortunately and for this strategic project, SPD is not very clear either because of its heavy dependency on land based Army assets. PN capabilities needs to be strengthened by SPD chaps now and before its too late to have a capable defense against India's fast growing military capability.

 

[Humble Analyst]

There is no operational uncertainty for PN subs. Navy should use them as an offensive arm and thats what they are meant for.

I meant the air cover protection and role in breaking the blockade without air cover

 

[Humble Analyst]

With the induction of S-400 by India in 2020, all air assets will be compromised whether on land or at sea. PN must be given priority and the next battle ground must be set UNDER the sea. This means investing in immediate local development and manufacturing of SWAT's and smaller nuclear missile capable submarines. Unfortunately and for this strategic project, SPD is not very clear either because of its heavy dependency on land based Army assets. PN capabilities needs to be strengthened by SPD chaps now and before its too late to have a capable defense against India's fast growing military capability.

Agree without the balance in Air and Naval forces Army losses it value as the law of diminished ah utility comes int play. The answer to all problems is not always more Army

 

[Signalian]

I meant the air cover protection and role in breaking the blockade without air cover

For air cover protection, PN seas should be covered for PN air assets to operate, so CAP's would be on throughout the war. For air missions inside IN seas, JF-17 ranges were calculated by another member in post#77 of this thread. F-16 would cover more range than that, C more than A. Then the refuellers would be active which could possibly enhance range when PAF aircrafts are flying on PN seas. PAF may not guarantee air cover for subs in IN seas, so they will be on their own then, much of what i posted in post#78.

 

[Humble Analyst]

For air cover protection, PN seas should be covered for PN air assets to operate, so CAP's would be on throughout the war. For air missions inside IN seas, JF-17 ranges were calculated by another member in post#77 of this thread. F-16 would cover more range than that, C more than A. Then the refuellers would be active which could possibly enhance range when PAF aircrafts are flying on PN seas. PAF may not guarantee air cover for subs in IN seas, so they will be on their own then, much of what i posted in post#78.

Thanks post 77 was by you. It will be nice to have some longer range Naval attack Aircraft who can fend themselves and subs. However thank you it was good to know I feel bettering.

 

[Signalian]

Thanks post 77 was by you. It will be nice to have some longer range Naval attack Aircraft who can fend themselves and subs. However thank you it was good to know I feel bettering.

ok which long range aircrafts do you view as viable for PAF or PN ?

 

[maverick1977]

With the induction of S-400 by India in 2020, all air assets will be compromised whether on land or at sea. PN must be given priority and the next battle ground must be set UNDER the sea. This means investing in immediate local development and manufacturing of SWAT's and smaller nuclear missile capable submarines. Unfortunately and for this strategic project, SPD is not very clear either because of its heavy dependency on land based Army assets. PN capabilities needs to be strengthened by SPD chaps now and before its too late to have a capable defense against India's fast growing military capability.

i doubt s400 will come in... politics will trump and THUD might be on their radar.

 

[Humble Analyst]

@Signalian @Humble Analyst @Khafee

Quite nice discussion.

However, a new reality that perhaps we are overlooking... Pak's largest province is at sea. With our EEZ due to extension in our continental shelf... PNS has to sail out of this area to protect our sea province.

Would like to give this province a name. Any ideas?

So defend our area and related economic benefits for our people... our naval defence is pushed further at sea...

PNS needs our attention more... both from Pak State and Paks.

With delivery of new surface and subsurface platforms we are looking at second strongest navy in Afro-Asian Ocean Region.

For now our naval doctorine on paper appears to be coastal... however, this might be deceptive or misleading. PNS has been training intensively and conducting major exercises in our home waters as well.

We do need more aerial platforms... including MALE/HALE combat UAVs.... I would go as far as saying as unmanned surface/subsurface vehicles...

For now we have a decent navy which packs quite a punch. Yet this is also true that our area / scope of defensive-offense has also increased...

We must and we shall protect our biggest province!

Thanks and agree the area of responsibility has definitely increased due to increased threat range and economic needs.
I looked around and the only planes that may be available to purchase for PAF PN Naval Air Arm can be JH 7 as Mastan Khan has been saying for years. They can be armed with better missiles than Exocets. The only concern is large RCS. I do not know if any changes have taken place to reduce the RCS.
Khafee suggested Eurofighter old version if available. Bottom line is money and who will sell to Pakistan.

 

[S.Y.A]

We must and we shall protect our biggest province!

Cant do that with the limited resources we have. OPVs are not going to cut it, they are just glorified patrol boats. Milgem corvettes(but they have only point defense system) and Type 054a are a step in the right direction. F22p is meh. Also, it pains me to see the OHP in the condition it is in: using second hand armament from decommissioned Type 21s, instead of a proper VLS like the Turkish ones.

 

[Signalian]

Thanks and agree the area of responsibility has definitely increased due to increased threat range and economic needs.
I looked around and the only planes that may be available to purchase for PAF PN Naval Air Arm can be JH 7 as Mastan Khan has been saying for years. They can be armed with better missiles than Exocets. The only concern is large RCS. I do not know if any changes have taken place to reduce the RCS.
Khafee suggested Eurofighter old version if available. Bottom line is money and who will sell to Pakistan.

MK says that JH-7B has range and payload, which could help IAF divert assets to southern tip of India. Acquisition of JH-7B has been discussed many times, PAF is not interested. RCS is not the only issue, there is no fear factor of JH-7B for IAF. Missiles (Ballistic, in some cases CM's or ALCM's)) have the same range to strike that far on land. The story of used Mirage-2000 rises and then falls.

The likes of SU-35 or EFT bring that multi-role capability, however there was an earlier discussion which brought up an issue that EFT Tranche-1 is incapable/reduced capability for Air to Ground strike missions. Upgrade wasn't available. You will have to dig in and research about EFT, however if PAF gets EFT, there are very less chances that it will be deputed on Naval missions, PAF will profile it for A2A missions or strikes on land.